Conference Standings Prediction Time

[bwgood77]

Lets see what you got. Give your reasonings for each team if you like. And try and attempt to make total wins of all teams to equal total losses. It seems like often times the wins far outweigh the losses in these things.

[ATTL]

1. Warriors- OK team
2. Thunder- pretty good team, Lakers were a good team when they got Howard and Nash too though
3. Spurs- death, taxes, spurs
4. Rockets- idk about the backcourt pairing
5. Wolves- hard to think they won't be around here
6. Jazz- will they have enough offense to make up for Hayward? Mitchell will help
7. Nuggets- big fan, could use an upgrade at point
8. Blazers- don't think they've improved more than these other teams
9. Grizzlies- meh
10. Clippers- don't trust their backcourt.
11. Pelicans- not anything special around their towers. West too tough.
12. Lakers- remember how we traded that Lakers pick for Brandon knight? Here it is.
13. Mavs- old and bad
14. Kings- if they ride their vets they could rocket up to 12th
15. Suns- biennial bledsoe injury incoming

1. Cavs- warriors cavs rematch is inevitable
2. Wiz- nobody beats the wiz
3. Raps - raps in 4
4. Bucks- when does Jabari come back?
5. Celtics- I think Tatum and brown will step up to the plate
6. Sixers- trusting the process pays off
7. Hornets- kemba and monk could be fun, don't like their front court
8. Miami- I don't think they'll continue their pace, Dion got paid too
9. Detroit- idk if they improved enough for the playoffs
10. Nets- they'll shock the world and win 30 games
11. Magic- not a fan of Gordon
12. Pacers- I like turner, not sure about dipo
13. Knicks- awful guards, zingus will need to have a real breakout year to be top ten in east
14. Hawks- bad
15. Bulls- really bad, will probably outright tank after the all star break if not sooner

Edit- Hayward is broken

[bwgood77]

538 came out with their's. I'm a little surprised we are ahead of the Mavs and that the Kings are THAT far back. They did add a ton of rookies but also added a couple of vets, and I think Hill helps. But I guess no Boogie at all might hurt.

Of course if they are right, we slot 7th in the draft, and with a couple more wins, 9th.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-nba-predictions/

Projected Standings:

West

#1 Warriors 63-19
#2 Rockets 57-25
#3 Thunder 54-28
#4 Spurs 50-32
#5 T'Wolves 50-32
#6 Nuggets 49-33
#7 Clippers 46-36
#8 Jazz 46-36
#9 Pelicans 43-39
#10 Trailblazers 41-41
#11 Grizzlies 35-47
#12 Lakers 32-50
#13 Suns 31-51
#14 Mavericks 30-52
#15 Kings 24-58

East

#1 Cavs 56-26
#2 Celtics 47-35
#3 Hornets 46-36
#4 Wizards 46-36
#5 Raptors 45-37
#6 Bucks 44-38
#7 Heat 40-42
#8 76ers 40-42
#9 Magic 37-45
#10 Pistons 35-47
#11 Pacers 32-50
#12 Knicks 30-52
#13 Nets 29-53
#14 Bulls 27-55
#15 Hawks 26-56

[Bogyo]

Warriors
OKC
Rockets
Wolves
Spurs
Nuggets
Clippers
Blazers
Utah
Pels
Grizz
Lakers
Mavs
Suns
Kings

I see the East like ATTL, althoug I think Sixers and Hornets should be reversed ( rebounding for the Hornets is very good, and the Sixers are still not experienced), and the 9-12th places are interchangeable in my eyes in any way... those are just bad teams. 13-15 are not even worth mentioning, they are just there to f up our draft.

[Damkac]

West
1. Warriors
2. Spurs
3. Thunder
4. Rockets
5. Blazers
6. Wolves
7. Jazz
8. Clippers
...
9. Nuggets
10. Grizzlies
11. Mavs
12. Pelicans
13. Kings
14. Lakers
15. Suns

East
1. Celtics
2. Cavs
3. Bucks
4. Wizards
5. Raptors
6. Hornets
7. Sixers
8. Miami
...
9. Detroit
10. Nets
11. Magic
12. Knicks
13. Pacers
14. Bulls
15. Hawks

[darealjuice]

West
1. Warriors
2. Spurs
3. Rockets
4. Thunder
5. Blazers
6. Wolves
7. Nuggets
8. Clippers
9. Jazz
10. Grizzlies
11. Pelicans
12. Mavericks
13. Kings
14. Lakers
15. Suns

West is going to be a blood bath. I can see any of my top 11 being in the playoffs depending on how injuries play out. Mavericks are somewhere in between rebuilding and trying not to waste Dirk's last year, but unless Dennis Smith Jr goes nuts this year I have a hard time seeing them in the playoffs. Bottom 3 are pretty much set, we'll probably be at the bottom since they all added veterans. I think we can be anywhere from 12 to 15 depending on how much development we see, but we should be a better team than last year despite likely having a similar record.

East
1. Celtics
2. Cavs
3. Wizards
4. Raptors
5. Bucks
6. Heat
7. Hornets
8. Pistons
9. 76ers
10. Magic
11. Knicks
12. Nets
13. Pacers
14. Hawks
15. Bulls

I think Cavs aren't quite as dominant out the gates without IT to help replace Kyrie's impact right away, but they'll probably be the top team in the East as far as championship chances go. Celtics should have a good year after adding Hayward and replacing IT with Kyrie, they'll probably make another deep playoff run and give a better series to the Cavs this year. Other than that the East stayed about the same or got a lot worse.

[Qwigglez]

West:
1. Warriors
2. Rockets
3. Spurs
4. Thunder
5. Wolves
6. Blazers
7. Jazz
8. Nuggets
9. Grizzlies
10. Clippers
11. Pelicans
12. Mavs
13. Suns
14. Lakers
15. Kings

East:
1. Cavs
2. Celtics
3. Wizards
4. Raptors
5. Bucks
6. Hornets
7. Heat
8. Pistons
9. Sixers
10. Magic
11. Pacers
12. Knicks
13. Nets
14. Bulls
15. Hawks

[MrMiyagi]

Dibs on Suns finishing in the top 8 out West.

Do other predictions even matter?

[Saberestar]

West:

1. Warriors. Best team in the history of the game. Enough said.
2. Rockets. They were great and they have added Chris Paul.
3. Thunder. Melo and George.
4. Clippers. I think that they are gonna surprise a lot of teams. Teodosic and Beverley are a solid couple at PG.
5. Timberwolves. They have upgraded their roster big time.
6. Spurs. They are one year older, so I don't expect them to dominate like other seasons. Not a contender IMO.
7. Nuggets. Another team like Minnesota that have taken a big step this season.
8. SUNS ( Yes, the Phoenix Suns from Phoenix, Arizona). I think/wish that our overall improvement is gonna be enough to put us in the playoffs as the latest seed. Let me dream please.
9. Blazers. A borderline playoff team, they can be in or out for just a couple of wins next season.
10. Pelicans. I don't like their roster, they are gonna have problems with their perimeter players.
11. Grizzlies. After losing Tony Allen, Carter and Randolph I don't think they are a playoff team anymore.
12. Jazz. Probably I am a little bit crazy but I think that they are gonna be a winnable team this year. They lack scoring.
13. Lakers. With rookie Ball as a primary PG they will have a good number of losses, but their future is bright.
14. Mavericks. Nowitzki one year older and not big signings this summer, they are gonna look for a high pick.
15. Kings. They have interesting youngsters, but they have the less talented roster IMO.

[Wilber85]

West Contenders

1. GSW
2. Thunder
3. Rockets
4. Wolves
5. Spurs

The rest do not have a chance to win a ship!

East Contenders

1. Cavs
2. Celtics

The rest of the east has zero chance for a shot at a ring.

My prediction for the 76ers. I see a lot of people overrating them. I say they finish 30-52.

My prediction for Suns. I see 38-44. I also think we will trade Bledsoe.

[Qwigglez]

I actually think we have a lot of talent on our squad but we just don't have the right system. I watch some Lakers preseason highlights and they make a lot of good passes and have a free flowing offense, something I think we should have. Too much iso-ball, dribbling, and just basic kick outs IMO. We'll see how the season plays out.

[NashtyNas]

538 came out with their's. I'm a little surprised we are ahead of the Mavs and that the Kings are THAT far back. They did add a ton of rookies but also added a couple of vets, and I think Hill helps. But I guess no Boogie at all might hurt.

Of course if they are right, we slot 7th in the draft, and with a couple more wins, 9th.

Can we sell off Bledsoe and Warren... preferably to an Eastern playoff contender that can get Miami out of the playoffs race?
That would be ideal.... we get worse and Miami gets worse... meaning more ping pong balls for us!

[bwgood77]

538 came out with their's. I'm a little surprised we are ahead of the Mavs and that the Kings are THAT far back. They did add a ton of rookies but also added a couple of vets, and I think Hill helps. But I guess no Boogie at all might hurt.

Of course if they are right, we slot 7th in the draft, and with a couple more wins, 9th.

Can we sell off Bledsoe and Warren... preferably to an Eastern playoff contender that can get Miami out of the playoffs race?
That would be ideal.... we get worse and Miami gets worse... meaning more ping pong balls for us!

I know Warren is somewhat divisive between Suns fans and imo underrated by many non Suns fans because it's tough not to rely just on stats for the Suns since most people obviously are not watching them, but I think he's on a value contract at this point for what he can provide, even if it ultimately is the best guy off the bench. Bledsoe is probably worth selling mostly due to what Rich Paul will command but also because of the age/injury potential so I'm good with that.

I think once you get past the top picks, and in the mid lotto it just takes smarts, so wherever that Miami pick lands, it's just all about picking the right guy that is there. Once you get between 12 and 20 who knows? John Collins went around 20th and he could be better than many above him and Gary Harris went at 19 and Hood after that.

[NashtyNas]

I think once you get past the top picks, and in the mid lotto it just takes smarts, so wherever that Miami pick lands, it's just all about picking the right guy that is there. Once you get between 12 and 20 who knows? John Collins went around 20th and he could be better than many above him and Gary Harris went at 19 and Hood after that.

I don't disagree with you... but this is my problem:

Our track record (I mean as a franchise, not just this management team) in the draft is quite putrid over the past 10-12 years.
My thinking is that the higher the pick, the more likely we are to take BPA like we did this year instead of reaching for fit and/or "potential" in the middle of the round... so I prefer to have that higher tier pick ESPECIALLY for us.

We have some of the worst drafting and developing in the league and that's not a joke. We either let our guys go before they blossom and become better players elsewhere (Lopez, possibly Len in the future) , or we cut them partly through their rookie contracts realizing they're not NBA players (Marshall, Ennis, Goodwin, Clark).

Outside of Booker (and now Jackson, who was the clear BPA and also the best fit IMO), we have missed just about every 1st round pick we've made since 2008 not counting Morris and Lopez. I don't think either Len or Warren are very good, and I don't think Warren is worth his contract. I think he's a worse version of Thaddeus Young - younger, but making more $. If we can get some value for him, we should, IMO.

[NashtyNas]

I actually think we have a lot of talent on our squad but we just don't have the right system. I watch some Lakers preseason highlights and they make a lot of good passes and have a free flowing offense, something I think we should have. Too much iso-ball, dribbling, and just basic kick outs IMO. We'll see how the season plays out.

We play too much iso-ball because the players that control the ball are our hands down best players by a wide margin.
Literally, it's like:

Booker
Bledsoe




Chriss
Warren
Everyone else

And I'm not including Jackson because we have yet to see enough of him.

I agree with you though, free flowing offenses make everyone look better and make the team function as a unit.
Obviously, we don't have the best coaching. I think everyone understands that. We certainly don't have a lot of talent - unless you mean potential/physical tools which we have a ton of. But in terms of current basketball ability, we're severely lacking in that department.

I know it's naive but I actually enjoy watching this team play more when Ulis is running the show. I feel like the ball moves more and goes to the right spots at the right time when he's in control. Maybe I just miss Nash.

[bwgood77]

I think once you get past the top picks, and in the mid lotto it just takes smarts, so wherever that Miami pick lands, it's just all about picking the right guy that is there. Once you get between 12 and 20 who knows? John Collins went around 20th and he could be better than many above him and Gary Harris went at 19 and Hood after that.

I don't disagree with you... but this is my problem:

Our track record (I mean as a franchise, not just this management team) in the draft is quite putrid over the past 10-12 years.
My thinking is that the higher the pick, the more likely we are to take BPA like we did this year instead of reaching for fit and/or "potential" in the middle of the round... so I prefer to have that higher tier pick ESPECIALLY for us.

We have some of the worst drafting and developing in the league and that's not a joke. We either let our guys go before they blossom and become better players elsewhere (Lopez, possibly Len in the future) , or we cut them partly through their rookie contracts realizing they're not NBA players (Marshall, Ennis, Goodwin, Clark).

Outside of Booker (and now Jackson, who was the clear BPA and also the best fit IMO), we have missed just about every 1st round pick we've made since 2008 not counting Morris and Lopez. I don't think either Len or Warren are very good, and I don't think Warren is worth his contract. I think he's a worse version of Thaddeus Young - younger, but making more $. If we can get some value for him, we should, IMO.

Thaddeus Young is on a 4 year $54 million contract which was signed in 2015 before the big cap spike, so despite the fact he is on a bigger contract, Warren's is definitely a better value relative the to cap. But obviously that doesn't matter if you don't think he's good.

I think he is a great go to scorer that you can always count on for that, and he has a great knack for steals and is an improving rebounder and defender. Obviously to be a really valuable player he probably needs to be able to hit 3s and defend better.

I agree about developing and that is part of the problem with him...rarely played a rookie, then unfortunately got injured his second year right when he was playing, and then after starting out hot last year, the med team messed him up for a stretch. I just hope he can stay healthy and play 30 minutes a game and we will be able to really better assess truly what he is, but there is no doubt he is our most consistent reliable scorer when healthy. The other scorers have some great games and some really bad ones.

[NashtyNas]

Thaddeus Young is on a 4 year $54 million contract which was signed in 2015 before the big cap spike, so despite the fact he is on a bigger contract, Warren's is definitely a better value relative the to cap. But obviously that doesn't matter if you don't think he's good.

I think he is a great go to scorer that you can always count on for that, and he has a great knack for steals and is an improving rebounder and defender. Obviously to be a really valuable player he probably needs to be able to hit 3s and defend better.

I agree about developing and that is part of the problem with him...rarely played a rookie, then unfortunately got injured his second year right when he was playing, and then after starting out hot last year, the med team messed him up for a stretch. I just hope he can stay healthy and play 30 minutes a game and we will be able to really better assess truly what he is, but there is no doubt he is our most consistent reliable scorer when healthy. The other scorers have some great games and some really bad ones.

Yeah - it's not about whether I think he's good or not, it's about what we've seen him do thus far - though of course I blame that on our management of him along with all the other prospects we've failed to develop correctly.

I don't want to repeat that mistake with Jackson - I think he's a very special player. I want him to get 30+ minutes a game this season as long as he's physically ready, which he clearly seems to be.

Yes, Warren's been a consistent scorer - but he only operates in the mid range. Having him on the floor makes our spacing infinitely worse even if we're playing him at the 4. The impact having that kind of player on the roster has on what you can and can't do is tremendous. Even rookie Chriss shot better from behind the arc on twice the attempts - so he's also someone I'd rather be developing.

Plus, we're not going to be very good with or without Warren, so why keep him at that cost for some mid range buckets? Throw your young guys in the fire - get them the crucial NBA experience they need to get better. That's my line of thinking at least - FO clearly sides with you at least for now.

At the least, we need to get rid of Bledsoe. I think he's an excellent player, but I don't want to pay him. He's too old and injury prone to get a 4-5 year deal from us and we're clearly not good enough with him as our 1/2 best player.

Alternatively, I'm also a proponent of packaging some of our assets for Cousins if he becomes available. Warren is an excellent candidate to be moved in such a trade.. though I'm sure that'll be a highly controversial topic.

[bwgood77]

Thaddeus Young is on a 4 year $54 million contract which was signed in 2015 before the big cap spike, so despite the fact he is on a bigger contract, Warren's is definitely a better value relative the to cap. But obviously that doesn't matter if you don't think he's good.

I think he is a great go to scorer that you can always count on for that, and he has a great knack for steals and is an improving rebounder and defender. Obviously to be a really valuable player he probably needs to be able to hit 3s and defend better.

I agree about developing and that is part of the problem with him...rarely played a rookie, then unfortunately got injured his second year right when he was playing, and then after starting out hot last year, the med team messed him up for a stretch. I just hope he can stay healthy and play 30 minutes a game and we will be able to really better assess truly what he is, but there is no doubt he is our most consistent reliable scorer when healthy. The other scorers have some great games and some really bad ones.

Yeah - it's not about whether I think he's good or not, it's about what we've seen him do thus far - though of course I blame that on our management of him along with all the other prospects we've failed to develop correctly.

I don't want to repeat that mistake with Jackson - I think he's a very special player. I want him to get 30+ minutes a game this season as long as he's physically ready, which he clearly seems to be.

Yes, Warren's been a consistent scorer - but he only operates in the mid range. Having him on the floor makes our spacing infinitely worse even if we're playing him at the 4. The impact having that kind of player on the roster has on what you can and can't do is tremendous. Even rookie Chriss shot better from behind the arc on twice the attempts - so he's also someone I'd rather be developing.

Plus, we're not going to be very good with or without Warren, so why keep him at that cost for some mid range buckets? Throw your young guys in the fire - get them the crucial NBA experience they need to get better. That's my line of thinking at least - FO clearly sides with you at least for now.

At the least, we need to get rid of Bledsoe. I think he's an excellent player, but I don't want to pay him. He's too old and injury prone to get a 4-5 year deal from us and we're clearly not good enough with him as our 1/2 best player.

Alternatively, I'm also a proponent of packaging some of our assets for Cousins if he becomes available. Warren is an excellent candidate to be moved in such a trade.. though I'm sure that'll be a highly controversial topic.

I don't think many would balk at including Warren in a trade for Cousins, and that could be their goal. It seems like a lot of forums talk about him. I noticed Dallas things they might throw money his way being that they have the most cap space and basically will have no real bigs next summer and won't have to deal with Noel's agent (Paul).

I think with Warren's contract, he would have good trade value. I do agree it's tough with spacing so I just hope he can become respectable from 3, because what he can do mid range seems special. Typically he is the type of player I wouldn't like, and if I looked at his numbers if he was on another team having not watched him like every game, he would not be a player I would want.

So my biggest hope is he just becomes a reliable scorer from 3. The truth is, none of our players are reliable from 3 outside of Daniels. I mean Bledsoe shot 32% and Booker a bit over 36% and is considered a premier shooter. I expect Booker to improve quite a bit. At least I hope so and same with Warren. I think he is probably really more of a Bledsoe % guy from deep and can probably get a bit better, but maybe I'm just too hopeful. He does have stretches where he does well, so being as good of a scorer as he is, maybe it's just becoming comfortable with it. Then again, you have guys like DeRozan who are great scorers who never get there. Or even Kobe isn't even a 33% career 3 pt shooter. Obviously those guys have more of an iso game, but they could/can definitely without a doubt score very well from mid range.

[NashtyNas]

Then again, you have guys like DeRozan who are great scorers who never get there. Or even Kobe isn't even a 33% career 3 pt shooter. Obviously those guys have more of an iso game, but they could/can definitely without a doubt score very well from mid range.

You definitely lost me there.... both Kobe and Derozan are not only infinitely better in the isolation but can/could take any defender off the dribble at will. Also their mid range games were vastly superior to Warren's.

I think Thad Young is the perfect comparison for Warren. He's a tweener F who doesn't do anything great but does everything relatively well. He can't shoot the 3 ball, so the value in playing him at the 4 isn't there as much as it has been with Thad who's a 33% shooter from 3 for his career on similar attempts per game to Warren.

Basically, Warren needs to improve from his sub 30% to around 33% on around 2-3 attempts per game for him to be worth that contract in my eyes.

http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=y7ztergw + Miami 1st - I'm waiting for it. I know it will happen.
Obviously I'm assuming we get a word from Cousins camp that he re-signs...

[bwgood77]

Then again, you have guys like DeRozan who are great scorers who never get there. Or even Kobe isn't even a 33% career 3 pt shooter. Obviously those guys have more of an iso game, but they could/can definitely without a doubt score very well from mid range.

You definitely lost me there.... both Kobe and Derozan are not only infinitely better in the isolation but can/could take any defender off the dribble at will. Also their mid range games were vastly superior to Warren's.

I think Thad Young is the perfect comparison for Warren. He's a tweener F who doesn't do anything great but does everything relatively well. He can't shoot the 3 ball, so the value in playing him at the 4 isn't there as much as it has been with Thad who's a 33% shooter from 3 for his career on similar attempts per game to Warren.

Basically, Warren needs to improve from his sub 30% to around 33% on around 2-3 attempts per game for him to be worth that contract in my eyes.

http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=y7ztergw + Miami 1st - I'm waiting for it. I know it will happen.
Obviously I'm assuming we get a word from Cousins camp that he re-signs...

I wasn't so much comparing him to them outside of the fact that they never really reliably shot the 3 (though Kobe did for a season or two I think) but that their spacing in this day and age can/could hurt an offense.