All Things Luka Doncic

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Re: Is Luka Dončić 2018 NBA draft 1st pick? 

Post#1361 » by J_T » Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:01 pm

Right now he is shooting 3-pointers 16.6667%. :)
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Re: Is Luka Dončić 2018 NBA draft 1st pick? 

Post#1362 » by XTraderXL » Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:14 pm

Look at it this way. He shoots threes at a high volume even when they are not falling and he doesnt get pulled out of the game. That tells you that Laso sees Doncic shooting the ball at every practice and seeing what he can do. If he didnt trust him, he would tell him to stop shooting so much. Its that simple. Luka can hit these shots at a high clip, he just needs more reps. He will have good stretches this season, after all in the summer at one point his 3p % was 70 and that was on a high voulme. Like I said, he will have good stretches and he will have bad ones. As he matures, there will be less and less bad ones and he will be a very good/elite shooter in the NBA.
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Re: Is Luka Dončić 2018 NBA draft 1st pick? 

Post#1363 » by blazeyo » Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:35 pm

He is going to struggle if teams decide to switch against his PnRs. He isn't quick enough to take bigs off the dribble and his 3pt shot isn't elite enough to take those step back 3's.

Needs to find ways to counter that at the next level.
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Re: Is Luka Dončić 2018 NBA draft 1st pick? 

Post#1364 » by The Master » Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:41 pm

BoardCrusher wrote:He may not have attempted many in euroleague, but anyone watching ACb games will confirm he takes many halfcourt shots there, you can believe what you want, I know what I see and I watched almost every single game of real last season.

So do you suggest that in Europe he didn't attempt half court shots but in ACB he did it all the time? :) Are there shooting charts or play by play stats on ACB website to check it? Because his ACB stats are worse because of his poor play in ACB playoffs. And your opinion is to me unrealistic considering the fact that in Euroleague he attempted only few hc shots. And I don't see your eye-test as valuable when you wrote before that he threw half court shots "EVERY GAME". ;)

I understand argument about him developing his shot, but to suggest that in ACB his 3pt percentage is average because he threw MANY half court shots isn't valuable and convincing for me.
UcanUwill wrote:Personally, I am far more worried about Lonzo Ball's or Dzanan Musa's ability to shoot at NBA level. I think Doncic will be a very good shooter, I have no worries there. I am far more worried about his ability to blow past his man.

Yeah, you're right about his abilities to attack his opponents, this is his biggest weakness. But again, maybe I'm not writing it carefully. That's why for me that important is his shooting. Because if he wants to be elite guard in NBA he has to be a very good scorer and the only way to do it is to develop his shot.
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Re: Is Luka Dončić 2018 NBA draft 1st pick? 

Post#1365 » by Rasho Brezec » Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:12 pm

He's scared of contact, that's the biggest problem. He knows he's not explosive enough to blow by anyone so he settles for those low percentage step back threes and weird fadeaways around the basket. He almost never tries a driving layup in the paint.
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Re: Is Luka Dončić 2018 NBA draft 1st pick? 

Post#1366 » by Mirotic12 » Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:33 pm

XTraderXL wrote:Of course he will have a bad game here and there. CSKA is the main favorite for EL title this year and the winner was not in question at any point of the game.

I wonder what Real will do now that Randolph is out for a few weeks and Kuzmic is lost for the season. My guess is Luka will have to contribute even more on the offensive end and Real will have to sign a new C. Real could be in trouble if they dont find another big soon.


No way. Their roster isn't as good several other teams.
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Re: Is Luka Dončić 2018 NBA draft 1st pick? 

Post#1367 » by XTraderXL » Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:37 pm

Mirotic12 wrote:
XTraderXL wrote:Of course he will have a bad game here and there. CSKA is the main favorite for EL title this year and the winner was not in question at any point of the game.

I wonder what Real will do now that Randolph is out for a few weeks and Kuzmic is lost for the season. My guess is Luka will have to contribute even more on the offensive end and Real will have to sign a new C. Real could be in trouble if they dont find another big soon.


No way. Their roster isn't as good several other teams.



I didnt make this up, those are betting companies odds. 1. CSKA, 2. Fener, 3. Real and 4. Oly. For me CSKA is not the favorite as well but I went by official odds. But they are definitely in the top 4, I just think there is no clear favorite this year.
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Re: Is Luka Dončić 2018 NBA draft 1st pick? 

Post#1368 » by Thespianoid » Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:51 pm

Rasho Brezec wrote:He's scared of contact, that's the biggest problem. He knows he's not explosive enough to blow by anyone so he settles for those low percentage step back threes and weird fadeaways around the basket. He almost never tries a driving layup in the paint.


yeah I agree this is his biggest issue hindering his drives along with his avoidance of going downhill consistently. he's quick enough to beat switches and guys off the dribble, but often when he has a step/angle on a defender to begin a drive he'll stop short and stepback rather than absorb the hit and keep going.

Same goes with finishing drives, he'll beat a guy and leave his feet early for a floater or a weird fading shot instead of taking an extra dribble/few steps and really seeking out bodies.

It's weird because guys already bounce off him if he initiates contact. Ben Simmons has a similar problem actually, he's so afraid of contact and stops short for floaters despite his strength.
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Re: Is Luka Dončić 2018 NBA draft 1st pick? 

Post#1369 » by JPF » Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:10 pm

blazeyo wrote:He is going to struggle if teams decide to switch against his PnRs. He isn't quick enough to take bigs off the dribble and his 3pt shot isn't elite enough to take those step back 3's.

Needs to find ways to counter that at the next level.

Seen so many switches on him this summer that failed. And on so many different ways, I can hardly believe i'm reading this.

[url][/url]
0:10 ... switch... jumper going in
1:44 ... late switch... 3 pointer
2:52 ... well, Boroussis is washed out compared to his best ages, but nevertheless, nice attack on the basket after change of direction
3:13 ... cuts in between

[url][/url]
0:11 Bertans steps out and gets overzealous with it -> pass for 2 points
0:40 ... scored in post vs. Longzingis... nuff said
1:38 ... switch... layup past Porzingis
2:02 ... switch again... step back three

...and we could go on and on.

The thing is, he has his flaws and there are things that might be questionable from the NBA perspective... but PnR was still considered as one of his strong points by just about everyone and rightfully so. I don't think anyone that watched Rubio, Schroeder, Dragič, Fournier, Bogdanović etc. at that tournament for a comparison, actualy believes Dončič will struggle on the PnR switch in NBA.
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Re: Is Luka Dončić 2018 NBA draft 1st pick? 

Post#1370 » by blazeyo » Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:30 am

JPF wrote:
blazeyo wrote:He is going to struggle if teams decide to switch against his PnRs. He isn't quick enough to take bigs off the dribble and his 3pt shot isn't elite enough to take those step back 3's.

Needs to find ways to counter that at the next level.

Seen so many switches on him this summer that failed. And on so many different ways, I can hardly believe i'm reading this.

[url][/url]
0:10 ... switch... jumper going in
1:44 ... late switch... 3 pointer
2:52 ... well, Boroussis is washed out compared to his best ages, but nevertheless, nice attack on the basket after change of direction
3:13 ... cuts in between

[url][/url]
0:11 Bertans steps out and gets overzealous with it -> pass for 2 points
0:40 ... scored in post vs. Longzingis... nuff said
1:38 ... switch... layup past Porzingis
2:02 ... switch again... step back three

...and we could go on and on.

The thing is, he has his flaws and there are things that might be questionable from the NBA perspective... but PnR was still considered as one of his strong points by just about everyone and rightfully so. I don't think anyone that watched Rubio, Schroeder, Dragič, Fournier, Bogdanović etc. at that tournament for a comparison, actualy believes Dončič will struggle on the PnR switch in NBA.


Damn, it looks like you worked so hard to make this post. Why?

Why are you comparing european big man to nba big man on the switch? NBA is trending faster than europe to positionless basketball. If he can't take his man off the dribble or be a threat from 3 on the switch then his elite passing game is going to be maginalized.

That's how it's going to be. Don't understand why you wasted your precious time making this post.
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Re: Is Luka Dončić 2018 NBA draft 1st pick? 

Post#1371 » by MrGrim » Sat Oct 21, 2017 2:27 am

blazeyo wrote:
JPF wrote:
blazeyo wrote:He is going to struggle if teams decide to switch against his PnRs. He isn't quick enough to take bigs off the dribble and his 3pt shot isn't elite enough to take those step back 3's.

Needs to find ways to counter that at the next level.

Seen so many switches on him this summer that failed. And on so many different ways, I can hardly believe i'm reading this.

[url][/url]
0:10 ... switch... jumper going in
1:44 ... late switch... 3 pointer
2:52 ... well, Boroussis is washed out compared to his best ages, but nevertheless, nice attack on the basket after change of direction
3:13 ... cuts in between

[url][/url]
0:11 Bertans steps out and gets overzealous with it -> pass for 2 points
0:40 ... scored in post vs. Longzingis... nuff said
1:38 ... switch... layup past Porzingis
2:02 ... switch again... step back three

...and we could go on and on.

The thing is, he has his flaws and there are things that might be questionable from the NBA perspective... but PnR was still considered as one of his strong points by just about everyone and rightfully so. I don't think anyone that watched Rubio, Schroeder, Dragič, Fournier, Bogdanović etc. at that tournament for a comparison, actualy believes Dončič will struggle on the PnR switch in NBA.


Damn, it looks like you worked so hard to make this post. Why?

Why are you comparing european big man to nba big man on the switch? NBA is trending faster than europe to positionless basketball. If he can't take his man off the dribble or be a threat from 3 on the switch then his elite passing game is going to be maginalized.

That's how it's going to be. Don't understand why you wasted your precious time making this post.


There were ....... quite a few NBA big men playing in that tournament.

Good ones too.
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Re: Is Luka Dončić 2018 NBA draft 1st pick? 

Post#1372 » by SportsGuy8 » Sat Oct 21, 2017 5:31 am

Thespianoid wrote:
Rasho Brezec wrote:He's scared of contact, that's the biggest problem. He knows he's not explosive enough to blow by anyone so he settles for those low percentage step back threes and weird fadeaways around the basket. He almost never tries a driving layup in the paint.


yeah I agree this is his biggest issue hindering his drives along with his avoidance of going downhill consistently. he's quick enough to beat switches and guys off the dribble, but often when he has a step/angle on a defender to begin a drive he'll stop short and stepback rather than absorb the hit and keep going.

Same goes with finishing drives, he'll beat a guy and leave his feet early for a floater or a weird fading shot instead of taking an extra dribble/few steps and really seeking out bodies.

It's weird because guys already bounce off him if he initiates contact. Ben Simmons has a similar problem actually, he's so afraid of contact and stops short for floaters despite his strength.

It is worrisome, but I wonder if it's a bit mental also, because he's been playing against mature men for the past couple of years. He needs to realize that his body isn't really at a disadvantage anymore.

This could be one of the disadvantages of starting to play vs. grown men so early. You never get that extra confidence that comes with absolute domination of your peers, instead you become a bit tentative. It also brings all kinds of advantages, though, obviously.
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Re: Is Luka Dončić 2018 NBA draft 1st pick? 

Post#1373 » by Thespianoid » Sat Oct 21, 2017 5:44 am

SportsGuy8 wrote:
Thespianoid wrote:
Rasho Brezec wrote:He's scared of contact, that's the biggest problem. He knows he's not explosive enough to blow by anyone so he settles for those low percentage step back threes and weird fadeaways around the basket. He almost never tries a driving layup in the paint.


yeah I agree this is his biggest issue hindering his drives along with his avoidance of going downhill consistently. he's quick enough to beat switches and guys off the dribble, but often when he has a step/angle on a defender to begin a drive he'll stop short and stepback rather than absorb the hit and keep going.

Same goes with finishing drives, he'll beat a guy and leave his feet early for a floater or a weird fading shot instead of taking an extra dribble/few steps and really seeking out bodies.

It's weird because guys already bounce off him if he initiates contact. Ben Simmons has a similar problem actually, he's so afraid of contact and stops short for floaters despite his strength.

It is worrisome, but I wonder if it's a bit mental also, because he's been playing against mature men for the past couple of years. He needs to realize that his body isn't really at a disadvantage anymore.

This could be one of the disadvantages of starting to play vs. grown men so early. You never get that extra confidence that comes with absolute domination of your peers, instead you become a bit tentative. It also brings all kinds of advantages, though, obviously.


yeah I've always wondered if playing for longer against your peers really gives prospects that extra confidence, especially when it comes to individual scoring.

Think there may not be much in it, as a guy like Ben Simmons who was pretty physically dominant vs college guys has the same issue as Luka, shying away from contact at the rim. Or a guy like Porzingis who, despite playing with Sevilla while physically weak has shown no hesitation in attacking the rim with anger.

IMO mostly a mindset thing that can be coached out of a player.
Clementine9 wrote:Missed shots are unfortunate, but it's the trends throughout the game that matter.

Choker wrote:The swing in how Raptors fans have supported and turned on Powell is a good case study of human behavior.
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Re: Is Luka Dončić 2018 NBA draft 1st pick? 

Post#1374 » by SportsGuy8 » Sat Oct 21, 2017 5:51 am

Yeah, if anything, it probably only plays a minor role.

We will continue getting more and more answers about his game this year, though. With all the Real's injuries he's going to have to take more and more offensive responsibilities. Let's just hope he doesn't get injured himself because of his somewhat reckless play (battling for the boards, for example). His game seems to be an injury waiting to happen.

But as mentioned, he doesn't drive much, so that decreases the chance of an injury significantly. :lol:
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Re: Is Luka Dončić 2018 NBA draft 1st pick? 

Post#1375 » by BoardCrusher » Sat Oct 21, 2017 6:01 am

The Master wrote:
BoardCrusher wrote:He may not have attempted many in euroleague, but anyone watching ACb games will confirm he takes many halfcourt shots there, you can believe what you want, I know what I see and I watched almost every single game of real last season.

So do you suggest that in Europe he didn't attempt half court shots but in ACB he did it all the time? :) Are there shooting charts or play by play stats on ACB website to check it? Because his ACB stats are worse because of his poor play in ACB playoffs. And your opinion is to me unrealistic considering the fact that in Euroleague he attempted only few hc shots. And I don't see your eye-test as valuable when you wrote before that he threw half court shots "EVERY GAME". ;)

I understand argument about him developing his shot, but to suggest that in ACB his 3pt percentage is average because he threw MANY half court shots isn't valuable and convincing for me.
UcanUwill wrote:Personally, I am far more worried about Lonzo Ball's or Dzanan Musa's ability to shoot at NBA level. I think Doncic will be a very good shooter, I have no worries there. I am far more worried about his ability to blow past his man.

Yeah, you're right about his abilities to attack his opponents, this is his biggest weakness. But again, maybe I'm not writing it carefully. That's why for me that important is his shooting. Because if he wants to be elite guard in NBA he has to be a very good scorer and the only way to do it is to develop his shot.


Im unable to find a shot chart for ACB, but yes he too a half court shot almost every game.
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Re: Is Luka Dončić 2018 NBA draft 1st pick? 

Post#1376 » by SportsGuy8 » Sat Oct 21, 2017 6:16 am

Maybe you also have a bit of a selective memory here. Yes, Doncic is more than willing to take those shots, much more than most other players, but our brains often deceive us. It probably doesn't happen nearly as often.

Let's try to think about it logically. There aren't that many situations for half-court shots. Several criteria has to be met:
1. Your team actually needs to have the possession of the ball in the last few seconds of the quarter, so this already cuts the possibilities from 4 to around 2 (depending on how your and/or opposing teams execute in those dying seconds of quarters).
2. There needs to be around 2-3 seconds or less on the clock, otherwise it's more than possible to get a somewhat decent look.
3. A player needs to actually be in the game at the end of quarters (that's actually often the case with Doncic).
4. A player will not that often have the ball in his hands in such situations, there are other players on the floor and/or he might not be in the best position to receive the ball.
5. Even if he's trying to beat the shot clock, that's not going to always happen, so often no FGA is going to get recorded.
6. Some scorekeepers might not even count it as a FGA if it's fairy close to the buzzer.
...

So all-in-all, it's very hard and rare to even be in a position to take such a shot, even if someone is looking for them.
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Re: Is Luka Dončić 2018 NBA draft 1st pick? 

Post#1377 » by JPF » Sat Oct 21, 2017 9:24 am

blazeyo wrote:Damn, it looks like you worked so hard to make this post. Why?

Why are you comparing european big man to nba big man on the switch? NBA is trending faster than europe to positionless basketball. If he can't take his man off the dribble or be a threat from 3 on the switch then his elite passing game is going to be maginalized.

That's how it's going to be. Don't understand why you wasted your precious time making this post.

Yeah, I don't post all that often anymore. At least not as much as I did with my previous account. One of the reasons are your types exactly, saying "that's how it's going to be". period. Instead of actualy checking on who were the big guys in that clip (hint) :wink:
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Re: Is Luka Dončić 2018 NBA draft 1st pick? 

Post#1378 » by blazeyo » Sat Oct 21, 2017 11:11 am

JPF wrote:
blazeyo wrote:Damn, it looks like you worked so hard to make this post. Why?

Why are you comparing european big man to nba big man on the switch? NBA is trending faster than europe to positionless basketball. If he can't take his man off the dribble or be a threat from 3 on the switch then his elite passing game is going to be maginalized.

That's how it's going to be. Don't understand why you wasted your precious time making this post.

Yeah, I don't post all that often anymore. At least not as much as I did with my previous account. One of the reasons are your types exactly, saying "that's how it's going to be". period. Instead of actualy checking on who were the big guys in that clip (hint) :wink:


Dude, i'm on Doncic side. I love him, but I'm also not oblivious to his potential struggles at the next level.

I watch every game of his. Stop giving me a hard time.

Porzingis is not a good perimeter defender, so him beating him is not a good indication.
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Re: Is Luka Dončić 2018 NBA draft 1st pick? 

Post#1379 » by lavta » Sat Oct 21, 2017 11:45 am

Man, an unbelievable amount of ignorance and lack of analysis here.

Firstly, basketball isn't played on a spreadsheet. You can't make conclusions out of anyone's raw shooting percentages if you don't watch their games, without tape raw percentages only can be preemptive signs.

I'm not a draft guy, just lurking around here out of boredom. I think who goes where is also unimportant, Doncic is talented. As long as he goes to a good situation he can be 60th pick, I don't care. Being 1st in a situationally bad organization is much worse imo. That means I don't follow non-Euro prospects, I know only bunch of their names & very broadly their playing archetypes. But since we're looking at raw percentages and drawing clear conclusions out of them, then Michael Porter JR who everyone I've seen agrees that he is a great shooter with fluid mechanics actually isn't. In U18 Americas he shot 6/20 from FIBA 3 which is %30. In Adidas Nations he shot (I believe from HS line) 4/11 from 3 which is %36.4. In McDonalds All American and Hoops Summit games he shot 1/8 from 3 combined. Which is %12.5 FWIW. So, I see those numbers, he shot a little better with significantly worse competition and shorter line. He shoots worse with same line as Luka's while facing probably even considerably worse competition than NIJT tournaments Luka dominated long ago. I had to go back because Luka has not played in worse competition than U18 Americas... let's say in a while. Oh, and again he shoots %35.1 from HS line in 77 attempts in high school, against children basically. With that all said, do I reject Michael Porter JR's shot? No, because these raw percentages do nothing but give preemptive disputable half-ideas to me. Every draft person I trust say he has a great shot and he's going to be a great shooter. A few minute short clips I've seen suggest his mechanics are fluid and shooting footwork at that age is elite. That's why I'm not going to arrive at conclusions of a 19 year old kid's (who I don't really watch) shooting prowess with raw percentages.

On the other hand, while I believe in his shot I think he jacks up too many 3s. I understand being the late-clock shooter now that Llull is gone. Only other Real player who's willing to have that role is Campazzo and his late-clock drives often ending with floaters. But I think Luka easily takes at least one 3 pointer in every game that is unnecessary aside of late-clock responsibility shots. As for someone who's such a PnR maestro, he needs to snake the PnR more to get good midrange shots. His touch is real good, his stepback is his go-to move. Snaking the PnR to get good midrange looks late clock or whatever, just would improve his efficiency.

I don't agree with the idea that he's afraid of contact either. He doesn't get all the way to the rim because he lacks arm length to finish over outstretched arms of defenders. He's better at using floaters and little bank shots with stop & fadeaways and also under-the-rim layups without using the glass which look closer to finger rolls than traditional layups. Like, he started to get to the foul line a lot because he gets contact for someone who's not a slasher. And only basketball gods know how many times he hit the floor in CSKA game which was only a couple days ago. The analogy with Ben Simmons seems right, but Ben seems like he has a considerably weaker floater/shots around the rim game than Luka in the limited games he has played so far with 76ers. So that does worry me about Simmons but not about Doncic.

Anyone who thinks he's average "at best" defensively should watch Spain game in Eurobasket. That was his peak defensive game from what I've seen of him so far against great competition being an 18 year old. It's a joke to think that's average defense. On the other hand, of course that's not his usual defensive performance. I think he'll be non-plus but above average defender (meaning what he brings on that end isn't game-changer so non-plus) and two things would explain why.

*He can be one of those pseudo-rim proctectors. This is actually a quality of great non-rim protector defenders (Wade, post-2016 Dallas series Durant, etc.) but weirdly Doncic has shown flashes of this. Every other game he surprises with the sliding from the corner or weakside to block the rim roller play. He has done it multiple times at 17 & 18 years of age in Euroleague and ACB that I believe it can carry over. We'll see.

*As everyone knows he isn't a plus defender but he's a plus team defender. Now, what makes players who are plus defenders collectively, but non-plus overall is the tendency to hurt team defense as a liability while being attacked. Steph is a good example. He displays all these defensive playmaking, doesn't blow off rotations much, doesn't get cut much, anticipation and defensive fundamentals are good. But he doesn't have the physical tools. So when Cavs did nothing but tried to switch him onto their best offensive players in 2016 Finals, he's become a liability on that end despite all the positive collective things he does. In the season opener, he did everything he can to hold off Harden to get to the rim, he even succeeded. But Harden patiently went to mid-range and just shot over him. Rockets offense down the stretch was basically trying to get Steph switched onto Harden. There's a reason for that. Now about Doncic, he doesn't really have that liability. He has a great frame, wide shoulders and he's strong so he's actually a good post defender. And then, his biggest defensive weakness is against screens not one-on-one. He's not a good one-on-one defender who'd shut down players forcing them to certain angles & tough shots. Not at all. But he actually holds his own well in straight one-on-one possessions. And being a PnR liability (if it's gonna be one for Luka) is much less harmful in other PnR coverages because it's solvable with team construction. Unless you're Kyrie Irving type of literally dying at screens type which Luka isn't. It really won't affect your team defense not at all as much and not at all as directly as being a liability after switches.

Oh, and he absolutely feasts off switches. Again, basketball is one of the most contextual sports in the world. The only empirical evidence is the tape. After reading a forum post of someone arriving at conclusions of shooting ability by raw percentages and accepting those conclusions by saying "Well turns out he's not a good shooter and he can't blow by guys so teams will just switch and take away his game." is just strange in my opinion. Like, all these Euroleague games are being played with tactical battles of coaches who need to squeeze every bit of tactical advantage out of their teams and they never thought of that? Just switch and he's done, they never thought of this? Well, he's a PnR maestro at 18, we should alert Euroleague coaches to have them just switch it so Real Madrid offense will be done. What an idea. Though, admittedly it was funnier when evidence of him feasting off switches were shown and dismissed by the owner of the idea.

Anyway, that seems like a long post. If you read it this far, I congratulate you to put up with my scattered thoughts and poor syntax.
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Re: Is Luka Dončić 2018 NBA draft 1st pick? 

Post#1380 » by Bob8 » Sat Oct 21, 2017 4:04 pm

lavta wrote:Man, an unbelievable amount of ignorance and lack of analysis here.

Firstly, basketball isn't played on a spreadsheet. You can't make conclusions out of anyone's raw shooting percentages if you don't watch their games, without tape raw percentages only can be preemptive signs.

I'm not a draft guy, just lurking around here out of boredom. I think who goes where is also unimportant, Doncic is talented. As long as he goes to a good situation he can be 60th pick, I don't care. Being 1st in a situationally bad organization is much worse imo. That means I don't follow non-Euro prospects, I know only bunch of their names & very broadly their playing archetypes. But since we're looking at raw percentages and drawing clear conclusions out of them, then Michael Porter JR who everyone I've seen agrees that he is a great shooter with fluid mechanics actually isn't. In U18 Americas he shot 6/20 from FIBA 3 which is %30. In Adidas Nations he shot (I believe from HS line) 4/11 from 3 which is %36.4. In McDonalds All American and Hoops Summit games he shot 1/8 from 3 combined. Which is %12.5 FWIW. So, I see those numbers, he shot a little better with significantly worse competition and shorter line. He shoots worse with same line as Luka's while facing probably even considerably worse competition than NIJT tournaments Luka dominated long ago. I had to go back because Luka has not played in worse competition than U18 Americas... let's say in a while. Oh, and again he shoots %35.1 from HS line in 77 attempts in high school, against children basically. With that all said, do I reject Michael Porter JR's shot? No, because these raw percentages do nothing but give preemptive disputable half-ideas to me. Every draft person I trust say he has a great shot and he's going to be a great shooter. A few minute short clips I've seen suggest his mechanics are fluid and shooting footwork at that age is elite. That's why I'm not going to arrive at conclusions of a 19 year old kid's (who I don't really watch) shooting prowess with raw percentages.

On the other hand, while I believe in his shot I think he jacks up too many 3s. I understand being the late-clock shooter now that Llull is gone. Only other Real player who's willing to have that role is Campazzo and his late-clock drives often ending with floaters. But I think Luka easily takes at least one 3 pointer in every game that is unnecessary aside of late-clock responsibility shots. As for someone who's such a PnR maestro, he needs to snake the PnR more to get good midrange shots. His touch is real good, his stepback is his go-to move. Snaking the PnR to get good midrange looks late clock or whatever, just would improve his efficiency.

I don't agree with the idea that he's afraid of contact either. He doesn't get all the way to the rim because he lacks arm length to finish over outstretched arms of defenders. He's better at using floaters and little bank shots with stop & fadeaways and also under-the-rim layups without using the glass which look closer to finger rolls than traditional layups. Like, he started to get to the foul line a lot because he gets contact for someone who's not a slasher. And only basketball gods know how many times he hit the floor in CSKA game which was only a couple days ago. The analogy with Ben Simmons seems right, but Ben seems like he has a considerably weaker floater/shots around the rim game than Luka in the limited games he has played so far with 76ers. So that does worry me about Simmons but not about Doncic.

Anyone who thinks he's average "at best" defensively should watch Spain game in Eurobasket. That was his peak defensive game from what I've seen of him so far against great competition being an 18 year old. It's a joke to think that's average defense. On the other hand, of course that's not his usual defensive performance. I think he'll be non-plus but above average defender (meaning what he brings on that end isn't game-changer so non-plus) and two things would explain why.

*He can be one of those pseudo-rim proctectors. This is actually a quality of great non-rim protector defenders (Wade, post-2016 Dallas series Durant, etc.) but weirdly Doncic has shown flashes of this. Every other game he surprises with the sliding from the corner or weakside to block the rim roller play. He has done it multiple times at 17 & 18 years of age in Euroleague and ACB that I believe it can carry over. We'll see.

*As everyone knows he isn't a plus defender but he's a plus team defender. Now, what makes players who are plus defenders collectively, but non-plus overall is the tendency to hurt team defense as a liability while being attacked. Steph is a good example. He displays all these defensive playmaking, doesn't blow off rotations much, doesn't get cut much, anticipation and defensive fundamentals are good. But he doesn't have the physical tools. So when Cavs did nothing but tried to switch him onto their best offensive players in 2016 Finals, he's become a liability on that end despite all the positive collective things he does. In the season opener, he did everything he can to hold off Harden to get to the rim, he even succeeded. But Harden patiently went to mid-range and just shot over him. Rockets offense down the stretch was basically trying to get Steph switched onto Harden. There's a reason for that. Now about Doncic, he doesn't really have that liability. He has a great frame, wide shoulders and he's strong so he's actually a good post defender. And then, his biggest defensive weakness is against screens not one-on-one. He's not a good one-on-one defender who'd shut down players forcing them to certain angles & tough shots. Not at all. But he actually holds his own well in straight one-on-one possessions. And being a PnR liability (if it's gonna be one for Luka) is much less harmful in other PnR coverages because it's solvable with team construction. Unless you're Kyrie Irving type of literally dying at screens type which Luka isn't. It really won't affect your team defense not at all as much and not at all as directly as being a liability after switches.

Oh, and he absolutely feasts off switches. Again, basketball is one of the most contextual sports in the world. The only empirical evidence is the tape. After reading a forum post of someone arriving at conclusions of shooting ability by raw percentages and accepting those conclusions by saying "Well turns out he's not a good shooter and he can't blow by guys so teams will just switch and take away his game." is just strange in my opinion. Like, all these Euroleague games are being played with tactical battles of coaches who need to squeeze every bit of tactical advantage out of their teams and they never thought of that? Just switch and he's done, they never thought of this? Well, he's a PnR maestro at 18, we should alert Euroleague coaches to have them just switch it so Real Madrid offense will be done. What an idea. Though, admittedly it was funnier when evidence of him feasting off switches were shown and dismissed by the owner of the idea.

Anyway, that seems like a long post. If you read it this far, I congratulate you to put up with my scattered thoughts and poor syntax.


Great.

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