Three point shooting

drsd · Post #1 » by **drsd** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:13 am

The sole reason the Magic is 5-2 is that they are playing white-hot offense. The major change is elite 3-point shooting.

Orlando is #1 in the league in 3-point shooting percentage. The team is careful to take only good attempts, but is still 14th in the league in 3P APG, and these coupled leads to being 4th in the league in made 3-pointers per game.

Aaron Gordon is currently the 2nd best 3-point shooter in the NBA: AARON GORDON!!!
Evan Fournier is 5th best.
Jonathon Simmons is tied 15th best.
Marreese Speights is 26th best.

That's 4 shooters at 47% + with the three ball. Between them there is 51 made 3-balls!

As well:
Mario Hezonja is non-qualified but is shooting 60%+
Elfrid Payton is non-qualified and is shooting 50%+
Nikola Vučević is "only" shooting 40%
D.J. Augustin is "only" shooting 39%
Shelvin Mack is "only" shooting 37%

....

Orlando has nine players shooting above the line where they should "fire away."

...

Only Isaac and Ross are inferior with the 3-ball.

...

tiderulz · Post #2 » by **tiderulz** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:11 pm

I cant see AG continuing at a high level, but if he can stay 37% or better i would be very happy. Evan has always been a very good 3 pt shooter, and if he isnt always the one initiating the offense, i can see that staying up pretty well. I expect Simmons to drop somewhat, he isnt the best 3 pt shooter. Mo Buckets always had a decent shot.

i expect our 3 pt shooting to drop a little as teams start game planning a little more for us, but not too much.

Post #3 » by **Knightro** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:23 pm

Gordon's dramatic improvement (and with his new form, he should at least settle in as a high 30s guy when it's all said and done) and Vucevic extending his range from 18-20 feet to beyond the line are the two HUGE reasons why the offense looks so much better.

When BOTH of your bigs can stretch the floor, it tilts the defense to the point where basically every possession there's either an open lane to drive or an open shooter. In theory, the Magic will be able to exploit this even more once Elfrid returns since he's a capable driver and a willing passer.

Not surprisingly, with this uptempo attack and all the extra space near the rim, the Magic are shooting. 634 inside five feet (9th in NBA), up from .593 a year ago (18th in NBA).

The other thing that happens when you have more space to drive? Late help from the opposing D which leads to... you guessed it... more FTAs.

Magic were 27th in the league in FTAs last year at 21.4 per game. This year they're up to 14th at 23.1 per game.

So yes, while the Magic have been abnormally hot from three and will almost certainly cool off, the benefits to more pace and more space are undeniable. More layups and more free throws are never a bad thing.

fendilim · Post #4 » by **fendilim** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 1:17 pm

Not sure how long we can sustain this shooting streak, but i certainly hope we’d get it back in time for the playoffs.

Anyway. Part of me believes that most nba teams still havent gotten wind of the new things we are doing now. Until then, it should be fun.

Post #5 » by **UCFJayBird** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 1:28 pm

Yea my biggest fear right now is that some of these guys will regress and take the wind out of our sails. My hope is that Ross steps up and becomes the shooter we know he can be and he's just off to a slow start, as he could offset some of that regression.

King Close · Post #6 » by **King Close** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 6:50 pm

UCFJayBird wrote:Yea my biggest fear right now is that some of these guys will regress and take the wind out of our sails. My hope is that Ross steps up and becomes the shooter we know he can be and he's just off to a slow start, as he could offset some of that regression.

Well there's no doubt that some (most, if not all) will regress a bit, but you hope that they are still solid, and Ross can get it going to offset it a bit as you said.

tooler · Post #7 » by **tooler** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 8:12 pm

It's even worse than that. I saw on reddit that the Magic lead the league in opponent 3PT%.

If those two statistics were league average, we'd probably have a negative point differential now.

The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. But when the Magic eventually come down to earth, it will likely be because of those two percentages regressing to the mean.

Fortunately you don't need a .700 winning percentage to reach the East playoffs. The team simply needs to mitigate that eventual regression well enough to stay above water.

Audi · Post #8 » by **Audi** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 8:58 pm

To me this can't come at a better time because even if we regress - we've still established ourselves as a 3pt threat (hopefully it sustains a bit longer to REALLY deepen that threat into the psyche of opposing teams). The threat which creates that spacing is what we will continue to need, not necessarily the 3ball to drop at the rate that it is. As long as teams have to continue respecting it, we will be good.

bargnanimvp · Post #9 » by **bargnanimvp** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:03 pm

Part of our high %s are probably teams still game planning as if we can't shoot. I remember seeing something from one "league source" awhile back saying the gameplan against orlando is just clog the paint and let us shoot. Probably has a Linsanity effect where teams aren't covering us the way they should be resulting in more open looks which will change.

Bakomagic · Post #10 » by **Bakomagic** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:41 pm

We will regress but it won't regress as much as some people think. The threes we shoot are mostly open threes, not heavily contested step back threes.

AG release is high, quick, and compact...reminds me of Kwahi's. Should be easily duplicated. I believe he will remain a good 3 point shooter from now on.

I'm surprised/impressed with Simmons ! He's already shown that he is really tough to stay in front of for defenders. I feel like he is more of the streaky type of shooter but never loses confidence of his ability to knock down a 3 at any given moment.

bargnanimvp · Post #11 » by **bargnanimvp** » Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:14 pm

Bakomagic wrote:We will regress but it won't regress as much as some people think. The threes we shoot are mostly open threes, not heavily contested step back threes.

AG release is high, quick, and compact...reminds me of Kwahi's. Should be easily duplicated. I believe he will remain a good 3 point shooter from now on.

I'm surprised/impressed with Simmons ! He's already shown that he is really tough to stay in front of for defenders. I feel like he is more of the streaky type of shooter but never loses confidence of his ability to knock down a 3 at any given moment.

Yeah i can't see us regressing to a cellar dweller, even when our %s drop off Vuc and Gordon are showing they are legit 3pt threats and that alone will stretch the defence in ways we never did in the past. Our 3 pt numbers will go down but the offence will still be greatly improved by the spacing they can now provide and our drives.

drsd · Post #12 » by **drsd** » Thu Nov 2, 2017 5:59 am

Orlando's 3-point FG% is better than 12 teams overall FG% !!!!

Instincts · Post #13 » by **Instincts** » Fri Nov 3, 2017 12:06 pm

And as has been discussed, other plays will begin to open up as defenses begin to focus on slowing down the 3pt shooting.

Drives, drive to assist, and midrange shots should all become more available as defenses begin to adapt. The players and coaching staff are surely ready to adjust and take advantage of the advantage gained by the defense being spread and out of position in effort to slow the 3pt barrage.

UCFJayBird wrote:Yea my biggest fear right now is that some of these guys will regress and take the wind out of our sails. My hope is that Ross steps up and becomes the shooter we know he can be and he's just off to a slow start, as he could offset some of that regression.

drsd · Post #14 » by **drsd** » Wed Nov 8, 2017 8:10 pm

OrlandoDream · Post #15 » by **OrlandoDream** » Wed Nov 8, 2017 8:14 pm

The last two games is an example of what is gonna happen when the hot shooting stops. Fournier and AG aren't gonna be on every night and guys like Ross, Vuc, Simms and even Isaac need to step it up in that case.

drsd · Post #16 » by **drsd** » Wed Nov 8, 2017 8:30 pm

Marreese Speights is currently the NBA's #18 best thee-ball shooter.

Nemesis21 · Post #17 » by **Nemesis21** » Wed Nov 8, 2017 8:44 pm

drsd wrote:Marreese Speights is currently the NBA's #18 best thee-ball shooter.

Mo Buckets 8-)

drsd · Post #18 » by **drsd** » Thu Nov 9, 2017 9:36 am

Gordon and Fournier coupled for 7-12 with the long-ball against the Knicks. My calculator says that is 58.3% accuracy!

Post #19 » by **UCFJayBird** » Thu Nov 9, 2017 4:25 pm

drsd wrote:Gordon and Fournier coupled for 7-12 with the long-ball against the Knicks. My calculator says that is 58.3% accuracy!

Quite frankly I'm a bit surprised that Gordon isn't getting more offensive looks. Dude is crushing it this year. With his percentages through 11 games he should be putting up 30+ per game, instead he's a very consistent 18-22 every night. He needs to get a few more FGAs per game and have a few more plays run through him.

Optimus_Steel · Post #20 » by **Optimus_Steel** » Thu Nov 9, 2017 4:31 pm

UCFJayBird wrote:
drsd wrote:Gordon and Fournier coupled for 7-12 with the long-ball against the Knicks. My calculator says that is 58.3% accuracy!

Quite frankly I'm a bit surprised that Gordon isn't getting more offensive looks. Dude is crushing it this year. With his percentages through 11 games he should be putting up 30+ per game, instead he's a very consistent 18-22 every night. He needs to get a few more FGAs per game and have a few more plays run through him.

You dont want to force it though because he is not a reliable creator, yet. They can go up incrementaly. He is still assisted on many of his shots, if he starts showing that he can create plays without being set up that would show he can handle a larger load.