HartfordWhalers wrote:HartfordWhalers ReviewKey Losses:Losing Amir and Olynyk to one of the worst rebounding big rotations, and positionally Boston's area of weakness feels like it deserves a lot more emphasis than it has gotten in light of the loss of Bradley. Boston's big rotation has been a problem, and its not about the outgoing so much as does the incoming replace/improve on it. After all Amir was a bad rebounder, and is old and heading downhill...
But I would pause when looking at who had Boston's best defensive ratings last season:
http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612738/players-advanced/?sort=DEF_RATING&dir=-11 Rozier ~probably because he played so little with Bradley
2 Amir
3 Olynyk (who happened to lead Boston in Dreb%)
DBPM similarly loved Amir (led Celtics). And DRPM? It had him fully 9th in the league (next highest was Crowder at 63).
Amir's been a guy who does the dirty work and gets his team better, and I don't see that coming back in. This is a big loss. Olynyk's intriguing skill set hurts too, and losing the best defensive reboudner from a team that cannot rebound isn't the best thing that can happen.
Bradley's numbers kept declining, and all due deference to Joel Embiid calling for Bradley on the all defensive team, I think you need positive metrics to be considered for it. So we had: undersized, bad defensive numbers, expiring contract ... but 39% 3 point shooter and second on the team in scoring. Bradley being able to guard a pg and shoot the 3 felt pretty important as a possible backcourt mate to Smart, who looks less positionally flexible without Bradley.
Altogether, I think Boston gave up a lot this offseason.
Losses:Jerebko is probably a bigger loss than Demetrius Jackson and James Young, which is meant as stinging criticism.
Draft:Why Tatum? Why not Isaac? I'm fine skipping Josh Jackson -- between age and shot the red flags scared me out of him at 3 -- but Tatum just seems like a unsafely safe pick. Maybe he is the next Paul Pierce. But I would have been reaching for the raw potential of Isaac. DSJ did grade interesting as well, and Boston was rumored to have some interest. I'm not sold on Tatum for Boston, or in general as the guy at #3, but if you give up the idea of hitting a home run, then Tatum is actually a solid looking double and the pick is absolutely defensible.
Semi Ojeleye seems a decent 2nd rounder. More than that, he seems a steal. I like this pick tons. If it fails it fails, but it has room to be a brilliant pick.
Trades:Easiest thing first, I think the Bradley trade was a loss. They obviously went for production now versus a protected pick future asset, and that makes sense. But they lost that end of the deal, and gave up a 2nd rounder to get a smaller contract. Marcus Morris fits more that Tweener forward mold then a guy who I say, who cares if Horford cannot rebound at center, we have Marcus Morris on the glass at pf with his 12.8% dreb%. Maybe Drummond suppressed the numbers some, but realistically, Boston looks tobe playing a bunch of 3's at the 2-4 spots and you can call the positions whatever is trendy but someone needs to do perimeter playmaking and someone needs to do interior rebounding. The second one is a problem. Did I mention I liked the idea of a guy like Isaac being picked to groom into the 4 spot of this position-less 2-4 mess so they could have a help defender and rebounder? No? I really should add that sporadically through here, so if he busts this can look bad everywhere.
What to say about the #1 for #3 + future pick trade?
Superstar or bust. How many NBA championship teams over the last 20-30 years did not have a 1st team All NBA player or a defending DPOTY? As in a top 6 player, not a top 15. Yes, most people don't think of the single best defensive player in the league as a top 6 player, but that bias doesn't change the reality that historically you need a guy in that top 6 tier to win it all.
Does Boston have that? Nope. Not even close. Did Boston draft that with Tatum? I'm saying no already. They might not have gotten it with Fultz either so I'm okay with the idea of making a move for the LAL '18 pick. After all, this has a chance at being that as much as Fultz perhaps. But top #1 protection and the chance that it isn't conveyed just makes me squeamish for liking it for Boston. And Tatum feels like a guy without Giannis level upside even if he is in 75% of scenarios a better player than say Isaac. And maybe that is what matters here, go for the safe pick that can always be leveraged in a trade later, but it is the opposite of the swing for the fence on Jaylen Brown taken last year (which I disliked there as well, although that was seeing more upside in Murray).
Still, I like the idea of trying to roll this one over. Especially when you ask:
Is Butler a top 6 player in the NBA?
Is George a top 6 player in the NBA?
I get two no's, so yeah, I'm good here.
Free Agency:Is Baynes an upgrade on Amir, or did the Boston big man rotation get a downgrade? I'm leaning the latter, and yes, obviously Hayward is the lead story but the Boston big rotation scares me. It and Isaiah Thomas' hip are the two variables that look between Boston and getting to the finals. He is a better rebounder at least, but Boston seems in need of a solution here.
Hayward is great. Getting the Horford's and Hayward's not just keeps Boston as a 50 win team, it will make them seem areal destination for the Durant's when they come around. But Hayward is a lot more Horford than Durant, and Boston no longer has all that cap space the small AB/IT/Crowder contracts made available.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)I would probably start Crowder at the 4 before Marcus Morris when push comes to shove. Boston's depth chart makes me feel like the team is worse than the sum of its parts, and so far the Boston team has been the opposite, and greater than a bunch of (very) solid role players. I'm concerned we get a 'whats wrong with Boston' slew of articles come December when they are 15-10 and figuring it all back out again.
Needs:A legit rim protector.
Another defensive glass rebounder at the 4 or 5.
IT's health.
Incorporating minutes and shots seamlessly -- player buy in that has been there in the past
A backup pg-sg for depth.
That top 5-6 NBA playerAdditional Thoughts:Ainge is a lightning rod. And next draft looks to be some sort of Waterloo for one side or another in the great Ainge debates. While I'm a fan of grading process over random results of a good (or bad) process, the random results Ainge gets next draft will deeply effect his legacy for the past two years.
I wish the Celtics had Noel. And even more so Cousins. Cousins is a guy who could come back with a yes to my question on Butler/George above if he gets it all together, and thats what Boston needed to go swinging for.
Trade idea: Crowder +for Cousins. Whats +? Just start adding and see when you have to stop. I'm not getting picky. Just make it happen.
Projected Win/Loss: 56-26 It should be higher but I have some concerns. I think a midseason trade is in order, or else I would have had it lower even.
Off-Season Grade: A- If Boston couldn't get a top 6 NBA player, then shelling out future assets that *might* get one for a top 10-25 player is a risky way of cutting off upside, even if getting that top 25 player would have taken them to the finals.
The problem is might is a tricky low probability word, and there is always the chance of getting incredibly hot during exactly the right playoff series (or an opponent injury). This was such a high stakes set of gambles on moves both taken and not taken.
And as part of this A-, I'm also considering giving Ainge an F on not getting Cousins last trade deadline, even if it cost them Hayward. Maybe the cost was just too high, but anything with Crowder/Bradley/Brown (picked higher than Hield)/non-Brooklyn picks should have been offered.
And so this is all about Cousins (and Isaac), I will add that while
the AD watch concept is absurdly premature, AD does qualify as someone (potentially) worth it by the criterion I have been using, and I'm okay with the idea of trying to preserve assets until then versus spending them on a lesser player. Porzingis I don't see that upside to, but thats probably best for another topic. (If Utah would have been a team to fall apart after losing Hayward, Gobert's defense would qualify him but thats another story.)