Marvin Bagley

[The Master]

In fact, I'm more concerned about his defense than his offense.

He will be fine offensively, his ballhandling, speed, leap and movement will make him at least very good addition offensively, and as I wrote in Ayton's thread, recently we're too harsh in judging prospects' shooting, he has good touch and not that bad mechanicss to develop good shot, and he's not as bad shooter as he showed against Elon.

But his defense was concerning, he's great rebounder but I didn't see any use of his movement, he has limited size and won't be a great shotblocker, so he needs to play very active team D to become great on defense, and I just didn't see any instincts.

When I'm watching Ayton on D, I see he's raw, but I also see size, very good individual D, nice pnr D already, great rebounding and shotblocking potential as for C, when I'm watching Jackson, I can see size, amazing feel on team D, and great movement, Bamba, as I watched him yesterday, is in his own class with his size and shotblocking ability - but right now I don't see any positive signs of Bagley in this department, he's high-energy guy with great movement, but despite his great rebounding, I don't think he can be difference maker on D at least right now.

For me he's rich Andrew Wiggins as a prospect who'll put in this case amazing stats, but has to land in NBA organization known from developing prospects. Lacking fundamentals on O, very raw on D, with signs of greatness because of his athleticism. But he can end as Wiggins 2.0. who in 4th season still can't go above level of solid starter and talented scorer.

He's still top6 prospect but for me from what I saw he's much closer to Jaren Jackson than to be 1st pick in June. He'll put much better stats in (probably) better so he will be chosen ahead of him, but as a prospect I think Jackson has more real skillset because of D already.

And to be clear, he's still great prospect, but people will tend to underestimate him because he won't reach hype he once was getting.

[nolang1]

For me he's rich Andrew Wiggins as a prospect who'll put in this case amazing stats, but has to land in NBA organization known from developing prospects. Lacking fundamentals on O, very raw on D, with signs of greatness because of his athleticism. But he can end as Wiggins 2.0. who in 4th season still can't go above level of solid starter and talented scorer.

I agree with this. Don't see how he can bust as he should be able to get 20 and 10 on athleticism alone, but in a bad situation those could end up being empty numbers. Defensively the thing that sticks out to me is that he's clearly spent his entire career being too valuable to his team to even risk foul trouble; only 1 foul yesterday and in the EYBL he averaged just 1.1 a game, which is insanely low for any player, let alone a big. So it's hard for me to really tell if he's lacking instincts or is simply making the conscious decision to avoid fouling. Results-wise Elon was scoring at a pace that would have translated to 40-50 points for the game when Bagley was in, and the times he appeared beaten off the dribble the offensive player was out of control and missed the shot.

The Wiggins comparison is apt because as fun as it can be to take the contrarian "this guy who gets a lot of hype actually sucks" position, at some point you have to realize that getting a player who's good is more important than getting a player who's good relative to his perceived hype. In Wiggins' case, he's still had a better start to his career than everyone in his draft class except for Embiid (who would have obviously been picked ahead of him if healthy) and Jokic (who nobody saw coming).

[CptCrunch]

Wiggns = no stats

Marvin = stat padder

Wiggins is 'bad' not because he was a bad prospect. His development and 'jump' to the next step just didn't happen. If Margin is a Wiggins from college, that is a top 2-3 pick (only because Luka is #1).

[reanimator]

Nothing wrong with a blank canvas, its just high risk/reward, and really none of us have a clue on how he will develop.

[The Master]

Wiggins' jump to the next step didn't happen because he was lacking any fundamentals and not every prospect can develop them like Kawhi - Wiggins had not ballhandling, playmaking, outside shot, defense, he was just raw super athletic kid who from time to time shows it but generally disappointed almost everyone by his career in college. His stats were worse than Josh Jackson's last season, there's no coincidence.

This comparison was based on a fact, that both (Bagley and Wiggins) where hyped because of their potential and athleticism, but in fact in college they both lack fundamentals what raise significant question marks.

Bagley is better as a prospect, because he has some NBA skills (rebounding, finishing) and skills for power forward (ballhanling, some post moves, good touch around a rim), but this is same case like Wiggins - if you want to select him, you'll choose athleticism and possibility of development, not some real skills he has. And like Wiggins' development suggests, not every young athletic freak will end as great NBA player. Bagley's floor is still much higher on both ends of a floor, as his upside, but like I wrote above, his NBA career will be very related to a place he goes.

Wiggins won't be top3 pick in this draft at all.

[nolang1]

Nothing wrong with a blank canvas, its just high risk/reward, and really none of us have a clue on how he will develop.

Again I would say that rebounding is not only already something he's legitimately skilled at, but it's a skill that translates more directly to the league than something like shooting percentage, as we've seen from Lonzo Ball. When you look at the best major conference true freshman rebounders since 2009-10 (when rebound percentage started being recorded), you have obvious franchise-caliber guys like Simmons, Embiid, and AD in the top 7, and everyone past a certain threshold I'm certain Bagley will reach has gone on to be a very good rebounder in the NBA. A player who's already elite as a rebounder and finisher is far from a blank canvas IMO.

The common refrain with him seems to be "he's stuck between a 4 and a 5," but if he's a 4 his team is most likely to have a massive rebounding advantage that cancels out his potential lack of shooting. The only possible issue is if he's a 5 who ends up being so lacking in ball skills that someone like Gobert or Porzingis can stick with him on the perimeter, which given his quickness advantage and what he's already shown at a young age seems unlikely.

[WalterBenjamin]

Not a shootblocker. No instinct for team D. Big who has like 10% he will be a plus defender in the NBA for his position. Yikes... With no offensive polish.

[reanimator]

Nothing wrong with a blank canvas, its just high risk/reward, and really none of us have a clue on how he will develop.

Again I would say that rebounding is not only already something he's legitimately skilled at, but it's a skill that translates more directly to the league than something like shooting percentage, as we've seen from Lonzo Ball. When you look at the best major conference true freshman rebounders since 2009-10 (when rebound percentage started being recorded), you have obvious franchise-caliber guys like Simmons, Embiid, and AD in the top 7, and everyone past a certain threshold I'm certain Bagley will reach has gone on to be a very good rebounder in the NBA. A player who's already elite as a rebounder and finisher is far from a blank canvas IMO.

The common refrain with him seems to be "he's stuck between a 4 and a 5," but if he's a 4 his team is most likely to have a massive rebounding advantage that cancels out his potential lack of shooting. The only possible issue is if he's a 5 who ends up being so lacking in ball skills that someone like Gobert or Porzingis can stick with him on the perimeter, which given his quickness advantage and what he's already shown at a young age seems unlikely.

I sorta agree with most of this but by blank canvas, I didn't mean he has absolutely no utility or is raw. It was more so in regards to all of the areas that are underdeveloped but show promise which Bagley checks a lot more across the board than a typical prospect.

[prime1time]

Not a shootblocker. No instinct for team D. Big who has like 10% he will be a plus defender in the NBA for his position. Yikes... With no offensive polish.

Ahh yes, nothing says the return of college basketball like basketball fans making predictions about players career outcomes in November. I have news for you, instinct on team defense can be taught. Offensive polish happens can be learned. Bagley is an 18 year old who is averaging 24.5 ppg and 10 rbs. I have a serious question, what is the fixation with focusing on a players negatives? If Michael Jordan was a prospect you'd be one of the scouts who'd tell us that you are concerned about his ability to shoot...

[CptCrunch]

If I didn't know about Bagley's high school ranking (#1 status in 2018 and 2017), I would think that he is some scrub who would be lucky to go in late second. You guys must all see something that professional high school scouts don't.

[Duke4life831]

I'm not trying to sound mean or arrogant or anything like that, it's an honest question, is this the first time that a lot of you have seen him play? If you watched him before you knew he was a pretty raw prospect, you knew he was a sub 30% 3pt shooter, you knew he struggled at the line, you knew about all these things.

I'm just having a hard time understanding how the freshman with the greatest debut and greatest first 2 games statically from a Duke freshman ever, is playing just like he did in high school, is all off a sudden looking like a disappointment and sliding down so many peoples draft boards already.

I can tell you one thing, the guys that ranked Bagley as the #1 prospect is loving what they're seeing from him. I'm just not seeing this sudden disappointment that so many people are seeing.

[No-Man]

I'm not trying to sound mean or arrogant or anything like that, it's an honest question, is this the first time that a lot of you have seen him play? If you watched him before you knew he was a pretty raw prospect, you knew he was a sub 30% 3pt shooter, you knew he struggled at the line, you knew about all these things.

I'm just having a hard time understanding how the freshman with the greatest debut and greatest first 2 games statically from a Duke freshman ever, is playing just like he did in high school, is all off a sudden looking like a disappointment and sliding down so many peoples draft boards already.

I can tell you one thing, the guys that ranked Bagley as the #1 prospect is loving what they're seeing from him. I'm just not seeing this sudden disappointment that so many people are seeing.

I was low on him and I remain low on him, not surprised, but it's always good to have some sample to evaluate a guy, people are gonna nitpick, I am the first guy to do so, but that's just natural

[Dresden]

Aaron Gordon was a super athletic pf who also couldn't shoot. Now in his 3rd or 4th year in the nba, he's shooting 3's over 50%, and averaging close to 20 a game. Sometimes it just takes awhile.

[WalterBenjamin]

Not a shootblocker. No instinct for team D. Big who has like 10% he will be a plus defender in the NBA for his position. Yikes... With no offensive polish.

Ahh yes, nothing says the return of college basketball like basketball fans making predictions about players career outcomes in November. I have news for you, instinct on team defense can be taught. Offensive polish happens can be learned. Bagley is an 18 year old who is averaging 24.5 ppg and 10 rbs. I have a serious question, what is the fixation with focusing on a players negatives? If Michael Jordan was a prospect you'd be one of the scouts who'd tell us that you are concerned about his ability to shoot...

Should I enyoy his rebounding prowes and phisycal dominance over non profesional players? There is nothing finnes and intelligent about his game. Of course I am gona be negative. You have phisicall gifts play basketball all life and dont excell in any aspect regarding basketball skills. What am I suposed to be than dissapointed and negative? The freedom he is getting compared to even Ayton is ridiculous. And just playing bullyball.

[Dresden]

If by "playing bullyball", you mean taking advantage of the fact that he's taller, quicker, and can jump higher than guys trying to defend him- I thought that was the whole point? What would you prefer for him to do- try to play pg, or shoot 3's all day? And how is what Bagley's doing anything different than what Ayton does? Ayton gets rebounds because he's either taller or stronger than the other guys, and when he gets the ball in close, he dunks on them, because again, he's taller and stronger. The big bully!

[ItsThatEasy]

Doing my best to remain objective and open minded about Bagley.

I think his floor is incredibly high, ceiling not so much.

You could throw him on an NBA team right now and he would be a contributor as an energy big. Not sure he can translate that into superstar or even all star potential but he's a safe bet to me. Not a prospect I would consider to be a franchise changer but a solid building block for sure.

[jonjames]

I'm not trying to sound mean or arrogant or anything like that, it's an honest question, is this the first time that a lot of you have seen him play? If you watched him before you knew he was a pretty raw prospect, you knew he was a sub 30% 3pt shooter, you knew he struggled at the line, you knew about all these things.

I'm just having a hard time understanding how the freshman with the greatest debut and greatest first 2 games statically from a Duke freshman ever, is playing just like he did in high school, is all off a sudden looking like a disappointment and sliding down so many peoples draft boards already.

I can tell you one thing, the guys that ranked Bagley as the #1 prospect is loving what they're seeing from him. I'm just not seeing this sudden disappointment that so many people are seeing.

Im not seeing generational talent that hes being hyped to be but im willing to be open minded on bagley. The kid is a gifted athlete and thus always has chance to be very good player. Hes very raw skillwise and still getting his numbers despite that so theres somethibg to be said about that..however projecting him into the nba i could see him struggling. Hes a tweener stuck between 4 and 5. Does not have size strength or even length for 4 or 5. Doesnt possess natural touch rim protection considering his athleticism or outside shot. I do not foresee him as a 3 at all in the nba unless his perimeter skills improve tremendously moving forward.

[Dresden]

"Does not have size strength or even length for 4 or 5"

The dude is 6'10" or 6'11", and you're saying he doesn't have size or length to be even a pf? You just lost all credibility with that comment.

[Dresden]

When I think of a player that's raw, I think of someone who will get sent to the G league for most of his first year, who has trouble doing basic things like controlling the ball. Bailey is not raw at all in that sense. He's a gifted rebounder already, and he can score in a variety of ways in the paint. Just watch his videos. He's got a very good left hand. He shoots a very high %. It is going to limit him if he isn't able to refine his outside shot- that is for sure. But a lot of pf's come into the league not being great shooters, and they develop at least a decent outside shot. Karl Malone, for instance.

[ItsThatEasy]

When I think of a player that's raw, I think of someone who will get sent to the G league for most of his first year, who has trouble doing basic things like controlling the ball. Bailey is not raw at all in that sense. He's a gifted rebounder already, and he can score in a variety of ways in the paint. Just watch his videos. He's got a very good left hand. He shoots a very high %. It is going to limit him if he isn't able to refine his outside shot- that is for sure. But a lot of pf's come into the league not being great shooters, and they develop at least a decent outside shot. Karl Malone, for instance.

I agree with you, he's not "raw".

Perhaps the right term for Bagley might be limited. He's got great athleticism but he's not very fluid. He reminds me of Derrick Favors in that regard. Favors is a great player, certainly not a player you would regret taking top 5 or even 3 in some drafts. But he just doesn't have a signature skill that would make him a franchise caliber player.

I watched Bagley in person all summer long at the Drew League and he absolutely looked like a pro out there against NBA players. He also didn't look like a "special" player if that makes sense. Nothing jumps out about him, even his athleticism isn't at the level of Blake Griffin or Aaron Gordon.

Career wise I see him maxing out similar to Juwan Howard, one or two time all-star, excellent piece on a winning team, but never a true superstar.