Kerb Hohl wrote:As a junior, Scott Tolzien threw for 7.7 Yards/attempt, 64%, 16 TDs/11 INTs.
In conference that year, he threw 12 TDs and 8 INTs on 60%. He racked up more yards than Hornibrook because
As a redshirt sophomore, Alex Hornibrook has thrown for 9 yards/attempt, 64%, 17 TD/12 INT.
I agree that Hornibrook is a bit more prone to INTs. 11 in conference this year with 2 games left. Tolzien also took a pretty nice leap for his final season in terms of turnovers, though his running game was much better then.
I'm saying the bar should be pretty damn low...
Those stats by Hornibrook were compiled against cupcakes we couldn't have realistically lost to anyway. So they aren't very meaningful.
The real problem and difference between Hornibrook and our past starting quarterbacks who didn't get supplanted quickly (i.e.: DOB) is their play against above average major conference teams who we could realistically lose to.
Hornibrook adjusted qbr's: 29.8, 55.3, 78.6, 41, 45.8, 35.8, 50.7, 42.7
Stave adjusted qbr's: 95, 18, 37, 94.5, 80.3, 66.3, 74, 38.8, 69, 81, 51.1, 50.5, 99.1, 87.6, 9.3, 58.1, 77.1
Twice as many samples, but still very telling that the top 6 and 11 of 12 are for Stave. Not to mention he added a little value with his legs comparatively. Much more likely to help you win a game against good teams.
Also a little more to single-handedly lose you the game, with the bottom 2 ratings, albeit again on twice as many samples. But that's a minute amount of games comparatively having that effect.
We have college's version of a 40+ year old Peyton Manning. He's not getting benched until he pretty much has already lost us a game or more, so we just have to hope we have the 2015 Broncos' defense + running game if we're going to win big. Last game it looked like it, but most of this season it hasn't.
From what little I've seen of Coan, I do think he's the real deal and will be a significant upgrade in the future. May not be ready now, but I still think he'd be worth trying if we have serious designs on doing more than just winning the B1G West again this year.