Post#2 » by trex_8063 » Tue Nov 14, 2017 8:00 pm
1st vote: Dominique Wilkins
Nique is one of a handful of players who is iconic for the era he played in.
Status quo would have him in much earlier (not saying that's correct, merely mentioning it). Here he's much maligned on the basis of pedestrian shooting efficiency. Though I'm going to suggest that his style (which was not long on holding the ball, and frequently attacked the rim and put pressure on the defense to rotate, etc) is the sort which can have value which is difficult to quantify.
I think one potential way is in offensive rebounding: not only perhaps occasionally in the manner that Allen Iverson can boost team ORtg (by getting shots up on the rim after he's forced the defense to rotate/help/collapse), but also by banging the glass himself (Nique has one of the best offensive rebounding rates among SF's). The Hawks were top 5 in the league in OREB% in SEVEN of Nique's nine prime seasons (full or partial) with them---top 3 three times---and were NEVER below average. One of their two worst years in this span (10th/27 in the league) was in the year where Nique missed almost half the season with injury. They were 4th/27 in '94 (when Nique was with them for about 60% of the season); fell to 14th/27 the next year without him.
He also had a VERY small turnover rate (even in light of his relatively scant playmaking). Later in his prime, he's also got the floor-spacing box checked. As mentioned above, he attacked defenses, forced a certain degree of collapse or rotation, which can help teammates out (more so if he were a better playmaker, it's true, but I still think this has benefit, again perhaps especially on the offensive rebounding).
Otherwise, from a purely individual level, he scored A LOT of points at a little bit above average efficiency, and he did a fair bit of that unassisted. I know everyone says "meh" to taking that many shots on that kind of efficiency, but when you look at some of the supporting casts below, I ask you: "who should be taking those shots?"
And one can hardly argue with the team offensive results (again: especially in light of the supporting casts some years; see below).
The team offensive results (with Nique as the consistent centerpiece) were consistently excellent during his prime:
Atlanta Hawks rORtg and league rank during Nique’s prime
‘86: +0.7 rORTG (11th/23)
‘87: +4.3 rORTG (4th/23)
‘88: +3.3 rORTG (5th/23)
‘89: +4.4 rORTG (4th/25)
‘90: +4.9 rORTG (4th/27)
‘91: +3.0 rORTG (8th/27)
‘92: -0.9 rORTG (16th/27)*
*Important to note Nique missed 40 games this^^^ year. They were +0.8 rORTG in the 42 games he played, -2.6 rORTG in the 40 he missed.
‘93: +1.3 rORTG (10th/27)
‘94 (Nique traded late season): +0.9 rORTG (12th/27)
And I want to point out who his primary supporting cast was, in descending order of playing time, for that 5-year stretch in which they were >+3.0 rORTG each year.....
'87: Kevin Willis, Doc Rivers, Randy Whitman, Cliff Levingston, Tree Rollins, Jon Koncak
'88: Doc Rivers, Randy Whitman, Cliff Levingston, Kevin Willis, Tree Rollins, Antoine Carr, Spud Webb, John Battle
'89: [late prime/early post-prime] Moses Malone, Reggie Theus, Doc Rivers, Cliff Levingston, John Battle, Jon Koncak, Antoine Carr, Spud Webb
'90: Moses Malone (post-prime), Kevin Willis, Spud Webb, Cliff Levingston, Doc Rivers, John Battle
'91: Doc Rivers, Kevin Willis, Spud Webb, Jon Koncak, Moses Malone (35 yrs old, very post-prime), John Battle
Here are some general WOWY records:
Dominique Wilkins with/without records in prime
‘86: 49-29 (.628) with, 1-3 (.250) without
‘87: 56-23 (.709) with, 1-2 (.333) without
‘88: 48-30 (.615) with, 2-2 (.500) without
‘89: 51-29 (.638) with, 1-1 (.500) without
‘90: 39-41 (.488) with, 2-0 without
‘91: 43-38 (.531) with, 0-1 without
‘92: 22-20 (.524) with, 16-24 (.400) without
‘93: 39-32 (.549) with, 4-7 (.364) without
‘94: 42-32 (.568) with, 4-5 (.444) without
TOTAL: 389-274 (.587)---on pace for 48.1 wins---with him, 31-45 (.408)---on pace for 33.5 wins---without him. Avg +14.7 wins added.
I know the above kind of data has a lot of noise, but that's a pretty consistent trend, repeating throughout his career.
2nd vote: Tracy McGrady
I'm very very big on meaningful longevity, and McGrady suffers in comparison to many other candidates on the basis of his longevity/durability--->more the durability than the longevity. He did play 15+ seasons (though only seven of them prime-level, 2 others were relatively "near-prime", and he was at least marginally useful in all the others)......that's OK in terms of longevity; he did miss large chunks of multiple seasons, though (so durability is certainly an issue).
If not for this, I'd have supported him earlier. With the exception of Bill Walton, Tracy McGrady is [imo] the best peak [and best average level during prime] left on the table (and obviously his longevity/durability soundly trounces Walton's).
While WS/48 doesn't rate him overly generous, the other rate metrics do. In a decent length career (938 rs games, >30,000 rs minutes), TMac has the 31st highest career PER of all-time (in NBA/ABA combined); he has the 12th-best career playoff PER of all-time. He has the 26th-best rs BPM of all-time (or since 1973, I should say), 15th-best playoff BPM.
He's also 49th all-time in MVP award shares, fwiw.
Impact data doesn't exactly love him (but it doesn't rate him poorly either). Spreadsheet I have which compiled data for many notable players from the following sources:
*colts18's rs-only APM for '94-'96
**ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt RAPM for '97-'00 (NPI for '97, PI otherwise)
***shutupandjam RAPM for '01-'07 (NPI for '01, PI otherwise)
****GotBuckets? PI RAPM for '08-'14
*****JE's google sheets PI RAPM for '15-'17
......from those, TMac's best 7 years combined is extremely similar to that of the following players who are off the table: Gary Payton, Dwight Howard, Ray Allen, Reggie Miller, and Russell Westbrook.
imho, #62 is probably marginally past time for both of these candidates.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
