Offseason, 2017-2018

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Ross Atkins, speaking Monday after the first day of the GM meetings at the Waldorf Astoria, described getting someone to protect against the uncertainty around Devon Travis and Troy Tulowitzki as his team’s top priority. But addressing the need is going to be difficult because productive super utility types are a commodity he admitted, “every team values significantly.”

The options are not plentiful in free agency with Eduardo Nunez, acquired mid-season by the Boston Red Sox from the San Francisco Giants, available on the high end, and Danny Espinosa, who bounced through three teams last year, a roll-the-dice, bounce-back option.

While the Blue Jays are trying to create their own Ben Zobrist in Cuban prospect Lourdes Gurriel Jr., he’s going to need some time. That leaves either anteing up for Nunez or trading for someone like Milwaukee’s Jonathan Villar, San Diego’s Yangervis Solarte or Marwin Gonzalez of the Houston Astros to make it happen.

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“We just want to consolidate depth into elite level talent—if we can,” Girsch said. “Now, there aren’t a lot of teams wandering around saying ‘here, take our elite level player,’ but there are some who have possibilities.”

One way or another, the Cardinals are trading an outfielder or two this winter, and even assuming the Blue Jays keep Donaldson, they’re match up neatly with St. Louis. The Blue Jays have depth in the bullpen and with Dexter Fowler, Randal Grichuk, Tommy Pham, Stephen Piscotty, Jose Martinez, Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader and Oscar Mercado all in the organization, the Cardinals have more outfielders than they can handle.

“We have depth in the outfield to the point where it’s not even fair to our players to bring all of them back,” Girsch said. “There are guys who deserve to be in the big-leagues who’d be pushed to triple-A. There are guys who deserve to be in triple-A who’d be pushed to double-A. We almost have to move some outfielders.

“So yeah, we’re listening, we’re talking, we’re exploring.”

For now, the same applies to all 30 teams. Within days, those discussions will turn to action and the off-season will finally start taking shape.

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The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Mets have checked in on free agent outfielder Lorenzo Cain, according to a report from ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. The Royals are monitoring the market for their long-time center fielder as well, though they’re preparing to move on to other alternatives.

“We’ll see where the market is and where it goes,” Royals general manager Dayton Moore said Tuesday. “It’s just hard to predict. It really is.”

The Royals extended a one-year, $17.4 million qualifying offer to Cain earlier this month. He is expected to turn down the offer before this week’s deadline and seek a multiyear deal. He will likely draw interest from a handful of clubs looking for an outfield upgrade.

Cain is expected to command a deal that could approach four seasons, and the Royals will likely be hesitant to sign another outfielder in his early 30s after watching Alex Gordon decline over the last two years. In addition, the Royals are set to enter a rebuilding phase that could limit the need for an outfielder on a deal that could last just three to four seasons.

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[I_Like_Dirt]

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Sigh... I was hoping the Red Sox would get him on. I want as many anchor contracts over there as possible. The Yankees are already more than enough competition in the division.

[Wo1verine]

Cain is going to turn 32 soon do we really want him for 4-5 years?

[Schad]

Cain is going to turn 32 soon do we really want him for 4-5 years?

Probably not, no. While he's a good offensive player, a lot of his value is tied up in his defense, and he won't be a good defensive CF through age 35. Could easily be worth the contract overall if he's getting $75m over 4, but only if he produces big numbers in the first two years, because after that's he's likely going to be a slap-hitting left fielder. CFs don't generally last deep into their 30s...he'll be either the second- or third-oldest full-time CF in baseball next season (behind Adam Jones, who really shouldn't be a CF anymore, and Denard Span, who is a below-average starter).

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Cain would cost the Blue Jays their second-round pick in 2018 while reducing their international spending limit by $500,000 next year. He’s 31, well-positioned for a four- or five-year deal. At the same time, he creates value at the plate, in the field and on the bases. There’s no doubt that he’s one of the best players available this off-season.

(Along those lines, Cain’s former teammate Jarrod Dyson would also be an intriguing fit in Toronto. The free agent might not have as much offensive upside as Cain, but he gets on base at a reasonable clip and won’t cost nearly as much.)

Among the players on the Blue Jays’ radar: Robbie Ross, the longtime Red Sox left-hander who recently became a free agent. Elbow and back issues limited Ross to eight appearances in 2017, but he’s expected to be healthy for the 2018 season and will likely be available on a one-year deal.

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LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. – The less stringent rules governing compensation for free agents who receive qualifying offers is, at minimum, making the Toronto Blue Jays more open to the idea of pursuing such a player.

As a team under Major League Baseball’s luxury tax not receiving revenue-sharing money, signing one of the nine qualified players would cost them their second-highest draft pick and $500,000 from their international bonus pool.

That’s far less significant than the loss of a first-round pick under the old system, and is why general manager Ross Atkins said Wednesday, “the impact is certainly not as big.”

“I think that it’s less significant of an issue but it’s definitely something you have to factor in,” he added. “It’s not something that would deter us.”

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Word around the GM Meetings is they’ve checked in on low-cost relievers, outfielders and most of the available starting pitchers on the market.

Atkins himself also said adding a versatile middle infielder is one of his top priorities.

There’s really no area of the roster that’s complete at this point, which makes the Jays one of the biggest wildcards over the next month, leading into the Winter Meetings back in Orlando at the Walt Disney World Swan & Dolphin Resort from Dec. 10-14.

One executive believes the Jays will be active on the trade front in order to fill some of their holes.

Don’t be surprised to see the Blue Jays make a transaction or two over the next few days.

The deadline to add players to the 40-man roster in order to protect them from the Dec. 14 Rule 5 Draft arrives Monday.

Currently, the Blue Jays’ 40-man roster has 36 players on it, leaving room for four more names over the next few days.

If the organization feels they’re going to leave a player exposed who could be selected, they could try to orchestrate a trade prior to Monday’s deadline.

A few of the first-time eligibles are likely no-brainers to be added to the 40-man, a group that includes right-hander Conner Greene and catcher Danny Jansen.

But there are other interesting names that may not be set in stone, such as first baseman Rowdy Tellez, catcher Reese McGuire, and 2014 first-round pick Max Pentecost.

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The Blue Jays want to get younger, too, but as Shapiro aptly put it, “there’s no button to push to convert all nine players to five years younger.”

Ultimately, that will only happen once prospects like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Anthony Alford start turning over the core, leaving the Blue Jays operating on the dual tracks of trying to win in any way possible while also building up the farm.

“That’s really just playing out the team that was put in place in 2015, trying to give that team every chance to continue to win,” said Shapiro. “A high cost was paid. Rightfully so. But now we have to do everything we humanly can to extend that window as long as possible.”

Shapiro refused to discuss specifics as it relates to payroll, but the Blue Jays have $88.3 million in guarantees plus another $47.8 million in projected arbitration salaries, assuming that Tom Koehler gets non-tendered. If their payroll is to be in the $160 million range they started with last year, that leaves them roughly $25 million to augment the current group.

One approach they could take is to buy a middle to high end player or two, leverage the production now and ride out the decline on the back-end of the contract once the kids arrive. Or they could try to trade for a longer-term piece that could time with both groups. Or they could spread the money around on a number of different pieces, searching for value or upside plays that could, potentially, provide a collective push.

“How that ends up unfolding, I can’t tell you today,” said Shapiro. “I know in a perfect world, as an intellectual exercise, what we’d like to have happen. But there’s no use in talking about that publicly, because the likelihood of that transpiring is miniscule. So there’s some scenario-planning where you say, OK, we’ve got these trades to explore, these are the ideal trades to think about where we can build the best possible team, here are the free agents that will fit well, not perfectly but well with what we’re trying to accomplish, and here are clearly the places we need to fill just to get better, or to upgrade on what we had last year, or where we have a hole and we need to add productivity."

“That’s the way we’re looking at it.”

[dagger]

The problem for the Jays remaining playoff relevant is that so many cylinders have to click just right for the door to open. Realistically, the Jays have to finish second in the AL East to have a shot at the wildcard. But I don't expect the Red Sox and Yankees to stand pat. If they make moves to improve their chances, the Jays effectively will have even more ground to make up with about $25m to spend, which isn't a whole lot.

[Schad]

One approach they could take is to buy a middle to high end player or two, leverage the production now and ride out the decline on the back-end of the contract once the kids arrive.

"We need to get younger and more athletic. But first: get older and less athletic, and ink a contract or two that'll be a millstone around our necks when we do get younger and more athletic in the future."

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[Schad]

Even accepting that internet polls are pretty well meaningless, I can't help but be surprised that the poll on Grange's article is 3-to-1 in favour of moving Donaldson.

[BramptonYute]

its cause they know they jays are gonna **** up the donaldson situation and lose him for a second round pick or some ****

[Schad]

Every scenario that isn't trading him is its own flavour of **** up the situation, really. If we give him 5-7 years at an AAV of $30m+, we'll have **** up the situation just as thoroughly as we will if we let him walk for a comp pick. Probably more.