Season Speculation, Trade Ideas & Discussion Pt. 3

jcsunsfan · Post #1401 » by **jcsunsfan** » Tue Nov 21, 2017 6:44 pm

bwgood77 wrote:Booker's defense not looking so good here. Nor is Jackson's or Ulis' offense.

Read on Twitter

Team defense has been bad. Its all about numbers, but when you watch the game, you see different things.

GDFTony · Post #1402 » by **GDFTony** » Tue Nov 21, 2017 7:23 pm

bwgood77 wrote:Booker's defense not looking so good here. Nor is Jackson's or Ulis' offense.

Read on Twitter

Book's not a great defender... yet but neither is this team (besides Bender and sometimes Tyson). As long as Booker keeps up his effort he has since Triano took over, he will improve. It will also help when he gets more help consistently on the offensive end so he can conserve some energy.

Post #1403 » by **bwgood77** » Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:02 pm

jcsunsfan wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:Booker's defense not looking so good here. Nor is Jackson's or Ulis' offense.

Read on Twitter

Team defense has been bad. Its all about numbers, but when you watch the game, you see different things.

Yeah, team has been bad, but rest of team obviously isn't close to him on that chart. His minutes probably has something to do with this particular, but no matter how he slice it, his defense isn't good. He's also ranked 425th out of 433 players in DRPM.

Hopefully he keeps working on that side of the ball.

MathiasPW · Post #1404 » by **MathiasPW** » Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:44 pm

I wonder how those 3 blowouts (Watson 2x and Houston last week) skew these defensive stats so far. We might see a very different graph by the middle of the season when we revert to our (new) mean.

LukasBMW · Post #1405 » by **LukasBMW** » Tue Nov 21, 2017 10:29 pm

It really sucks Porter went down for the season. I wonder if he will still enter the draft?

Back surgery is no joke. Even if he recovers, disc issues and surgery already are scary for his age.

Does this knock him down to late lottery?

SideSwipe · Post #1406 » by **SideSwipe** » Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:01 pm

bwgood77 wrote:Booker's defense not looking so good here. Nor is Jackson's or Ulis' offense.

Read on Twitter

There are some very interesting people in the top right quadrant. Vuc, Kanter and Drummond, among others. Those are three guys who haven't be known for their defense. I hope this is accurate. I know Vuc has been balling this season, and Kanter has been doing fairly well in NY as well. Glad to see Drummond may be turning his defense around a little as well.

That said, I would like to see how these numbers are calculated.

Who are some good candidates in the top right we might want to focus on in trade?

Post #1407 » by **bwgood77** » Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:06 pm

SideSwipe wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:Booker's defense not looking so good here. Nor is Jackson's or Ulis' offense.

Read on Twitter

There are some very interesting people in the top right quadrant. Vuc, Kanter and Drummond, among others. Those are three guys who haven't be known for their defense. I hope this is accurate. I know Vuc has been balling this season, and Kanter has been doing fairly well in NY as well. Glad to see Drummond may be turning his defense around a little as well.

That said, I would like to see how these numbers are calculated.

Who are some good candidates in the top right we might want to focus on in trade?

As such, the formula for TPA is rather simple. It’s broken down into two parts—offensive points added (OPA) and defensive points saved (DPS)—and each is calculated in the same vein.

OPA is derived by adjusting offensive box plus/minus (OBPM) to account for the number of possessions the player in question is present for. Similarly, DPS is derived from a similar adjustment of defensive box plus/minus (DBPM) with that same number of possessions. OBPM and DBPM, both calculated by Basketball-Reference.com, estimate the per-100-possessions value of a player on either end of the court.

Add OPA and DPS together, and you have TPA. A score of zero indicates a player was perfectly average (by no means a bad thing for rookies or lifelong end-of-bench players), while anything positive means they were better than an average-level replacement.

https://nbamath.com/tpa-model/

You can look at the complete list by ranking here:

https://nbamath.com/2017-18-nba-tpa/

According to this metric though, Chriss is our team's leader in DPS, so it being driven by box scores, blocks probably influence it a lot.

jcsunsfan · Post #1408 » by **jcsunsfan** » Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:22 pm

I just doubt the metrics. It has some notoriously bad defenders listed above the line.

SideSwipe · Post #1409 » by **SideSwipe** » Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:47 pm

bwgood77 wrote:
As such, the formula for TPA is rather simple. It’s broken down into two parts—offensive points added (OPA) and defensive points saved (DPS)—and each is calculated in the same vein.

OPA is derived by adjusting offensive box plus/minus (OBPM) to account for the number of possessions the player in question is present for. Similarly, DPS is derived from a similar adjustment of defensive box plus/minus (DBPM) with that same number of possessions. OBPM and DBPM, both calculated by Basketball-Reference.com, estimate the per-100-possessions value of a player on either end of the court.

Add OPA and DPS together, and you have TPA. A score of zero indicates a player was perfectly average (by no means a bad thing for rookies or lifelong end-of-bench players), while anything positive means they were better than an average-level replacement.

https://nbamath.com/tpa-model/

You can look at the complete list by ranking here:

https://nbamath.com/2017-18-nba-tpa/

According to this metric though, Chriss is our team's leader in DPS, so it being driven by box scores, blocks probably influence it a lot.

It's interesting, but the fallacy of those scores is that they are related to your own team more than related to anyone on another team. I do use those metrics often, but because they are off/on they have some weaknesses. If there is a big disparity between players on the same team they will show up exacerbated in metrics like this. Likewise if there is not a big difference between players then it will show positive signs in the metrics, even if both are bad. This type of metric is better as a team rating than it is at individual rating, IMO, because of those differences.

Post #1410 » by **bwgood77** » Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:53 pm

SideSwipe wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:
As such, the formula for TPA is rather simple. It’s broken down into two parts—offensive points added (OPA) and defensive points saved (DPS)—and each is calculated in the same vein.

OPA is derived by adjusting offensive box plus/minus (OBPM) to account for the number of possessions the player in question is present for. Similarly, DPS is derived from a similar adjustment of defensive box plus/minus (DBPM) with that same number of possessions. OBPM and DBPM, both calculated by Basketball-Reference.com, estimate the per-100-possessions value of a player on either end of the court.

Add OPA and DPS together, and you have TPA. A score of zero indicates a player was perfectly average (by no means a bad thing for rookies or lifelong end-of-bench players), while anything positive means they were better than an average-level replacement.

https://nbamath.com/tpa-model/

You can look at the complete list by ranking here:

https://nbamath.com/2017-18-nba-tpa/

According to this metric though, Chriss is our team's leader in DPS, so it being driven by box scores, blocks probably influence it a lot.

It's interesting, but the fallacy of those scores is that they are related to your own team more than related to anyone on another team. I do use those metrics often, but because they are off/on they have some weaknesses. If there is a big disparity between players on the same team they will show up exacerbated in metrics like this. Likewise if there is not a big difference between players then it will show positive signs in the metrics, even if both are bad. This type of metric is better as a team rating than it is at individual rating, IMO, because of those differences.

That's only to some extent though or you wouldn't have such outliers to the top right. Those players are not bringing their whole team with them. The individual outliers look pretty accurate.

I mean look at the offensive part. There are only 7 players clearly to the right of Booker. Then look at Jackson and Ulis which are more to the left of everyone. Those are obviously individually based.

MilotheSlayer · Post #1411 » by **MilotheSlayer** » Wed Nov 22, 2017 1:22 am

I see Millsap could be out for awhile. Someone think of a trade where we get Mudiay, 1st for Monroe. Not sure what kind of baggage needs to be added but it should be something McD is looking at. Wouldn't it be hilarious if we traded Bled for 2 1st and Mudiay?

Saberestar · Post #1412 » by **Saberestar** » Wed Nov 22, 2017 1:44 am

MilotheSlayer wrote:I see Millsap could be out for awhile. Someone think of a trade where we get Mudiay, 1st for Monroe. Not sure what kind of baggage needs to be added but it should be something McD is looking at. Wouldn't it be hilarious if we traded Bled for 2 1st and Mudiay?

I do not think they need Monroe because he is a C, he can not play PF in the current NBA.

Jokic, Plumlee and Faried are enough to play PF/C for them, and they have other players like Hernangomez and Arthur that can play at PF too.

Saberestar · Post #1413 » by **Saberestar** » Wed Nov 22, 2017 1:47 am

I would like to trade for Beverley if there is an opportunuty to get him.

He is not happy right now and he is on a great contract that ends at 2019.

Read on Twitter

Post #1414 » by **bwgood77** » Wed Nov 22, 2017 2:33 am

Saberestar wrote:
MilotheSlayer wrote:I see Millsap could be out for awhile. Someone think of a trade where we get Mudiay, 1st for Monroe. Not sure what kind of baggage needs to be added but it should be something McD is looking at. Wouldn't it be hilarious if we traded Bled for 2 1st and Mudiay?

I do not think they need Monroe because he is a C, he can not play PF in the current NBA.

Jokic, Plumlee and Faried are enough to play PF/C for them, and they have other players like Hernangomez and Arthur that can play at PF too.

They also have Trey Lyles, Tyler Lydon (who was a 1st round pick this year), and even Wilson Chandler can play small ball 4.

Bobby Marks
ESPN
The one thing that the Nuggets don't have a shortage of players at is power forward. Including Paul Millsap, Denver entered the season with 6 PF on the roster and could even add backup center Mason Plumlee to that mix.

http://www.espn.com/nba/scoreboard

Midnight_Suns · Post #1415 » by **Midnight_Suns** » Wed Nov 22, 2017 3:12 am

I would kill to get P Bev on this team.

NaturalBuns · Post #1416 » by **NaturalBuns** » Wed Nov 22, 2017 3:12 am

No for Blake griffin.
Good player in his prime but he's going to play most PF minutes. Which makes drafting chriss and bender useless draft picks at That point.

So you'd be caving in a lot of assets on top of wasted picks. This team needs a long term Center and PG.

We should of pursued Drummond hard.
In the offseason suns FO should try hard to push for Drummond or boogie. Offer a lot of these first we have acquired.

Keep the pick the suns land on and take best PG.

Have a foundation 1-5.
Build off that

Draft a PG (with their pick)

JMac1 · Post #1417 » by **JMac1** » Wed Nov 22, 2017 4:09 am

jcsunsfan wrote:I just doubt the metrics. It has some notoriously bad defenders listed above the line.

AtheJ415 · Post #1418 » by **AtheJ415** » Wed Nov 22, 2017 5:36 am

LukasBMW wrote:It really sucks Porter went down for the season. I wonder if he will still enter the draft?

Back surgery is no joke. Even if he recovers, disc issues and surgery already are scary for his age.

Does this knock him down to late lottery?

It does really suck for him, though it could be a blessing for Phoenix if it stays in the mid lottery area. This is basically the only way he might fall out of the top 5.

Post #1419 » by **Qwigglez** » Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:17 am

I am not trading for the rest of the season unless it's to get expiring contracts or to get a star player. Lyles is trash, Mudiay is trash, Faried is trash, Beverly is trash. Stop trying to add trash to our dumpster fire!

Banana Milk · Post #1420 » by **Banana Milk** » Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:20 am

AtheJ415 wrote:
LukasBMW wrote:It really sucks Porter went down for the season. I wonder if he will still enter the draft?

Back surgery is no joke. Even if he recovers, disc issues and surgery already are scary for his age.

Does this knock him down to late lottery?

It does really suck for him, though it could be a blessing for Phoenix if it stays in the mid lottery area. This is basically the only way he might fall out of the top 5.

Back injuries are scary. I'm not familiar with the procedure he had, but they seem like the kind of thing that haunt someone for life. Let's hope it's not that serious and he is able to recover fully.