Michael Porter Jr.

[King Ken]

there is no way he stays lol gonna go top10 regardless, probably top5 still.

It will be nearly impossible for him to fall out of the top 5. He's just too much of a talent. From people I've spoke to, this is really a 6-8 week injury plus recovery. I asked why is MPJ longer and they said he's probably being shut down.

[Shock Defeat]

Philly will draft him and sit him out his rookie season, continuing their long line of rookies who have done so. Embiid, Simmons, Fultz, Porter Jr.

[Ryuzaki]

Philly will draft him and sit him out his rookie season, continuing their long line of rookies who have done so. Embiid, Simmons, Fultz, Porter Jr.

Sounds good to me. That Laker pick is going to come in handy

[Ambrose]

Philly will draft him and sit him out his rookie season, continuing their long line of rookies who have done so. Embiid, Simmons, Fultz, Porter Jr.

That would be so unfair.

[CptCrunch]

Oh look, actual data from a medical journal: http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1941738115608361



13 out of 61 players didn't return to play. Being taller is bad, out of the players who did not return to play, 69% of them are centers. Porter is a PF sized large boy so this isn't a good injury for him to have at 19.

Players who returned from this suffered a lower PER in their first year, and differences were not significant in years 2 and 3, and the difference in career length is also not significant.

tl;dr Expect a slow recovery and maybe a 1/5 chance that Porter never play again. If he plays, he'll probably be fine in a year or two.

[Mulhollanddrive]

What are the chances he's fully fit at combine?

[DK-All Day]

When evaluating him, teams will be going off of his High School games. No body of work at the collegiate level.

[bennjuiced34]

Read on Twitter

He’s coming back next year

Why? If he's a top 5 lock (assuming medicals check out)...what's the upside? I know what his quote said about returning next year, but what's the alternative? He tells Missouri and its fans that he's leaving?

Kinda like how players say they need to 'take some time to think about their decision.' And the next day they declare. He's gone.

[OsuCavsfan103]

Well selfishly this helps the Cavs if we do in fact keep the BKN pick and not get a pick in the first few.

This kid very well could fall to 4-7 range now, could be a steal for someone 4-7 too.

[Mulhollanddrive]

If he's assured of $5m+ he would be negligent not to take it.

Follow up surgery the following year (hypothetically) would make it very difficult to be acquired with a 1st round pick so he would be non-gauranteed at best.

[tedwilliams1999]

Oh look, actual data from a medical journal: http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1941738115608361



13 out of 61 players didn't return to play. Being taller is bad, out of the players who did not return to play, 69% of them are centers. Porter is a PF sized large boy so this isn't a good injury for him to have at 19.

Players who returned from this suffered a lower PER in their first year, and differences were not significant in years 2 and 3, and the difference in career length is also not significant.

tl;dr Expect a slow recovery and maybe a 1/5 chance that Porter never play again. If he plays, he'll probably be fine in a year or two.

Articles like these are always taken with a grain of salt, especially because we don't know why the 13 athletes in the study didn't return to sport. There's always the chance they just sucked before the injury, in which case getting a surgery isn't going to help their skill level in any way. The other issue is sample sizes at the different age groups; elite athletes are a pretty unique group of individuals, so getting higher powered, stratified studies on them is going to be difficult. A lot of these return to sport articles also don't necessarily take into account the skill level of an athlete. A 20 year old is not only going to heal differently, but also will have an entirely different skill set than other 20 year-olds or 25+ year-olds.

In my amateur opinion, MPJ should make a 100% recovery with a microdiscectomy, as it is a relatively minor procedure. His ceiling nor his floor will likely be affected; he'll just lose out on some development time. Long-term studies regarding career longevity don't have much data behind them, so no one really knows what the re-injury rates are here. It'll likely depend on how he hurt himself - hopefully it was from poor lifting form on a deadlift, which should be easily correctable.

Good meta-analysis here with more information:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26641847

[Marcus]

Are any of the kids not named Bamba, Ayton, Doncic, or Bagley likely to pass Porter up in June when they start calling names?

[Thespianoid]

Are any of the kids not named Bamba, Ayton, Doncic, or Bagley likely to pass Porter up in June when they start calling names?

think Jaren Jackson Jr could have passed Porter even without the injury

[reanimator]

Are any of the kids not named Bamba, Ayton, Doncic, or Bagley likely to pass Porter up in June when they start calling names?

JJJ and whatever guard emerges

[No-Man]

Are any of the kids not named Bamba, Ayton, Doncic, or Bagley likely to pass Porter up in June when they start calling names?

JJJ and whatever guard emerges

Bridges might too, that's the absolute top, at worst he goes 8th, likely he goes 5th.

[cursedsportsfan]

When evaluating him, teams will be going off of his High School games. No body of work at the collegiate level.

Thank you for pointing that out Magic Johnson

[The-Power]

Are any of the kids not named Bamba, Ayton, Doncic, or Bagley likely to pass Porter up in June when they start calling names?

JJJ and whatever guard emerges

Bridges might too, that's the absolute top, at worst he goes 8th, likely he goes 5th.

Agreed. He had the chance to play himself into the top 2 for me personally as nobody but Doncic has established himself as a guaranteed top 2 pick. Now this will be difficult for him but I can't see him dropping lower than 8 either (Doncic, Ayton, Bamba, Bagley, Jackson plus two players with a great season (e.g. Bridges, Brown, Sexton, Carter and 4-5 more I'd be looking at – but it's unlikely that more than two will leapfrog him unless legitimate doubts regarding his future health arise).

[Marcus]

Are any of the kids not named Bamba, Ayton, Doncic, or Bagley likely to pass Porter up in June when they start calling names?

JJJ and whatever guard emerges

Bridges might too, that's the absolute top, at worst he goes 8th, likely he goes 5th.

Miles or Mikal?

[doordoor123]

Are any of the kids not named Bamba, Ayton, Doncic, or Bagley likely to pass Porter up in June when they start calling names?

JJJ and whatever guard emerges

Who is JJJ? John Jacob Jingleheimer Schmidt?

[Don7]

Are any of the kids not named Bamba, Ayton, Doncic, or Bagley likely to pass Porter up in June when they start calling names?

JJJ and whatever guard emerges

Who is JJJ? John Jacob Jingleheimer Schmidt?

Jaren Jackson Jr.