The-Power wrote:I can't say how disappointed I am with Ayton's defense. His intensity level is just so incredibly low, it's a shame. Everything he does besides going for defensive rebounds when the ball hits the rim looks late and lazy. When he hedges in PnRs it takes him years to get back into position, in transition he just jogs back, his contests are almost always too late and too lazy to really bother his opponent.
Furthermore, his defensive awareness is simply not there. He provides basically zero help defense despite having all the physical tools in the world because he either doesn't recognize where and when to help or he doesn't care. Either he's in no position to provide help defense for some inexplicable reason or, when he is, he doesn't rotate over with any kind of purpose.
This is a huge deal to me because he's not going to be a superstar because of his offense. Not only because he doesn't have the skill set to do so (very limited ball handling skills, limited passing skills, erratic jumpshot and a postgame that is based mostly on physical superiority) but because only exceptions are capable of having elite offensive impact as a big man. So if his defense is merely average – mainly due to his physical profile and rebounding – then he's most certainly not going to be a top 3 player in this draft.
On offense he relies on physical domination. He has a workable jumpshot but that's still not an reliable option for him – at least not from further out – and he doesn't really look interested on finishing off the PnR as the roll man (if he was, his screens would look different). He just flat-out dominates smaller defenders close to the rim and that's great and all. He's shown his willingness to be physical, which I like, but if we look at what of that will translate into the NBA there's reason to be skeptical.
I'm not trying to downplay what great of a prospect Ayton is, just to get this straight. But what he's shown thus far, despite good raw numbers, isn't enough to warrant first pick proclamations in my eyes. I just don't see it. Right now, Ayton looks like a physical specimen with some basic basketball skills. Great for starters, sure, but far from special for now.
Agree with all of this, but you have to try to translate his game to the NBA and whether or not he can develop certain aspects of the game. For example the screen setting is weak, but that's the case for every player in the NCAA. In a straight line he can really jump and he does have the frame to set a proper screen, so I do think he could be a great lob target in P&R situations in time.
I don't trust his jump shot yet as well, but he shoots it VERY flat. A minor tweak in his shooting motion can change the entire directory of the ball and result in a massive spike in shooting percentages. Unlike Bagley I do think that Ayton has shooting touch.
The problem defensively is entirely off-ball. He's not like Jahlil Okafor who doesn't have the feet to keep up with smaller guards, he can keep up with plenty of forwards and has some hip mobility to defend P&R's.
Can coaches learn him to provide help defense? I don't know, I personally need more film to judge whether it's a lack of BBIQ, willigness or perhaps partly a problem of relying on Ristic to provide rim protection and staying out of foul trouble.
Btu his game andathleticism is more like M. Turner.