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#8 UCF [10-0] @ Tampa

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Re: #10 UCF Football (12-0): AAC Champions 

Post#341 » by tiderulz » Sun Dec 3, 2017 9:29 pm

Xatticus wrote:
MagicFan101 wrote:
UCFJayBird wrote:
And yet we had more top 25 wins than 5-6 teams ahead of us in the rankings.


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Again, rankings != talent. Rankings are primarily determined by record. A primary factor in the record teams like UCF, Memphis as USF earned was the inferior opponents they faced.

For example, UCF is ranked ahead of 9-3 LSU. If you swapped schedules for these teams do you not expect UCF to have at least 3 losses? Surely no one doubts that Alabama would be a loss and we will likely have a chance to see first hand what the result of a UCF-Auburn game would be.

We can be proud of a good step forward without being unrealistic to the reality that there is still a long way to go.


That's the fallacy that the powers that be would have you believe. They benefit from the perpetuation of this myth. There is a difference in the strengths of the schedules that these teams play against, but it isn't anywhere near as extreme as is perceived.

Power 5 schools seldom travel to play non-conference games. It's exceptionally rare that they travel to play non-Power 5 teams. It's too dangerous.

Non-AQs were 5-3 (one of those losses was against another non-AQ) in BCS games, including wins by Boise St. over Oklahoma and Utah over Alabama. This is why the system was revamped to avoid the inclusion of a team from outside of the power 5 when the playoff was created.

LSU lost three games against the 63rd toughest schedule (by sagarin), which included a loss at home against Troy. UCF was undefeated against the 83rd toughest schedule. Alabama got into the playoff without winning it's own division or conference. They played the 56th toughest schedule.

Yes. I am unequivocally stating that UCF would have fewer than three losses if they played LSU's schedule. I think the likelihood of Troy winning in Orlando is exceptionally low. Yes. UCF is better than Mississippi St., FSU, and LSU. That means that UCF is better than anyone Alabama beat this year. I'm not arguing that UCF is better than Alabama, but we aren't going to get to find out.


ehh, i agree with some of what you said, disagree with others. there are more athletes overall on the bigger Power 5 schools than not. When you play against stronger foes, it takes a toll on you physically. And that leads to losses as injuries add up. I look at my own team's decimated LB position. I'm not saying its HS VS College ball. And also not saying that UCF doesnt have some top caliber athletes, but across the roster they dont. And where it usually shows up is at the OL and DL and the beating teams take. I cant agree that UCF is better than MSU or LSU or even FSU. Unfortunately, we will never know as they didnt play each other.
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Re: #10 UCF Football (12-0): AAC Champions 

Post#342 » by MagicFan101 » Sun Dec 3, 2017 9:53 pm

tiderulz wrote:
Xatticus wrote:
MagicFan101 wrote:
Again, rankings != talent. Rankings are primarily determined by record. A primary factor in the record teams like UCF, Memphis as USF earned was the inferior opponents they faced.

For example, UCF is ranked ahead of 9-3 LSU. If you swapped schedules for these teams do you not expect UCF to have at least 3 losses? Surely no one doubts that Alabama would be a loss and we will likely have a chance to see first hand what the result of a UCF-Auburn game would be.

We can be proud of a good step forward without being unrealistic to the reality that there is still a long way to go.


That's the fallacy that the powers that be would have you believe. They benefit from the perpetuation of this myth. There is a difference in the strengths of the schedules that these teams play against, but it isn't anywhere near as extreme as is perceived.

Power 5 schools seldom travel to play non-conference games. It's exceptionally rare that they travel to play non-Power 5 teams. It's too dangerous.

Non-AQs were 5-3 (one of those losses was against another non-AQ) in BCS games, including wins by Boise St. over Oklahoma and Utah over Alabama. This is why the system was revamped to avoid the inclusion of a team from outside of the power 5 when the playoff was created.

LSU lost three games against the 63rd toughest schedule (by sagarin), which included a loss at home against Troy. UCF was undefeated against the 83rd toughest schedule. Alabama got into the playoff without winning it's own division or conference. They played the 56th toughest schedule.

Yes. I am unequivocally stating that UCF would have fewer than three losses if they played LSU's schedule. I think the likelihood of Troy winning in Orlando is exceptionally low. Yes. UCF is better than Mississippi St., FSU, and LSU. That means that UCF is better than anyone Alabama beat this year. I'm not arguing that UCF is better than Alabama, but we aren't going to get to find out.


ehh, i agree with some of what you said, disagree with others. there are more athletes overall on the bigger Power 5 schools than not. When you play against stronger foes, it takes a toll on you physically. And that leads to losses as injuries add up. I look at my own team's decimated LB position. I'm not saying its HS VS College ball. And also not saying that UCF doesnt have some top caliber athletes, but across the roster they dont. And where it usually shows up is at the OL and DL and the beating teams take. I cant agree that UCF is better than MSU or LSU or even FSU. Unfortunately, we will never know as they didnt play each other.



The UCF - Auburn Peach Bowl should show us a lot...
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Re: #10 UCF Football (12-0): AAC Champions 

Post#343 » by nymets1 » Sun Dec 3, 2017 9:54 pm

Wow we get to play Auburn!! Miami Hurricanes would have been awesome to play but Auburn is an upgrade.
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Re: #10 UCF Football (12-0): AAC Champions 

Post#344 » by Xatticus » Sun Dec 3, 2017 11:07 pm

MagicFan101 wrote:
tiderulz wrote:
Xatticus wrote:
That's the fallacy that the powers that be would have you believe. They benefit from the perpetuation of this myth. There is a difference in the strengths of the schedules that these teams play against, but it isn't anywhere near as extreme as is perceived.

Power 5 schools seldom travel to play non-conference games. It's exceptionally rare that they travel to play non-Power 5 teams. It's too dangerous.

Non-AQs were 5-3 (one of those losses was against another non-AQ) in BCS games, including wins by Boise St. over Oklahoma and Utah over Alabama. This is why the system was revamped to avoid the inclusion of a team from outside of the power 5 when the playoff was created.

LSU lost three games against the 63rd toughest schedule (by sagarin), which included a loss at home against Troy. UCF was undefeated against the 83rd toughest schedule. Alabama got into the playoff without winning it's own division or conference. They played the 56th toughest schedule.

Yes. I am unequivocally stating that UCF would have fewer than three losses if they played LSU's schedule. I think the likelihood of Troy winning in Orlando is exceptionally low. Yes. UCF is better than Mississippi St., FSU, and LSU. That means that UCF is better than anyone Alabama beat this year. I'm not arguing that UCF is better than Alabama, but we aren't going to get to find out.


ehh, i agree with some of what you said, disagree with others. there are more athletes overall on the bigger Power 5 schools than not. When you play against stronger foes, it takes a toll on you physically. And that leads to losses as injuries add up. I look at my own team's decimated LB position. I'm not saying its HS VS College ball. And also not saying that UCF doesnt have some top caliber athletes, but across the roster they dont. And where it usually shows up is at the OL and DL and the beating teams take. I cant agree that UCF is better than MSU or LSU or even FSU. Unfortunately, we will never know as they didnt play each other.



The UCF - Auburn Peach Bowl should show us a lot...


It will show you precisely what you want it to show you, because the game has been played before. Every time a small school beats a big school, it is dismissed by those that prefer to believe the myth. When they lose, it is simply affirmation for what they knew all along.

When Utah played Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, it was dismissed for these same old reasons. Utah has since been legitimized by their inclusion in the Pac 12, but they were the outsider at the time and Alabama's loss was written off as a fluke. That Alabama team was very similar to this year's team. Their only loss was against Florida in the SEC Championship Game. They would've made a playoff if a playoff existed at the time. Instead, they went to the Sugar Bowl where they were thumped by an undefeated team from the Mountain West.

If you take away Alabama's loss to Auburn, the resumes of Alabama and UCF are very similar. The Auburn game makes up the large majority of what gives Alabama a stronger SOS than UCF. I'd argue that Alabama was more impressive on the whole, but not by much. The average ranking of teams that UCF beat was 89.6 (by Massey). The average ranking of the teams that Alabama beat was 71.18. I'm not actually arguing that UCF is as good as Alabama, but rather that we lack the evidence to say that Alabama is definitively better. Nevertheless, they are in the playoff and UCF merited no consideration.

There are several teams with better resumes than Alabama that are going to get left out. Ohio St.'s resume is certainly better. Wisconsin's is essentially the same. Again, this isn't about who is better, but rather it is about why we think some teams are better than others despite us lacking any credible evidence to suggest as much. Our source of conviction is the myth that we cling to. This is social psychology. It is ingroup/outgroup dynamics. It's easy to claim that you are better than someone else when you don't have to prove it.

My solution to all of this is a 16-team playoff. Until such a time that we have one, this is largely a popularity contest.
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Re: #10 UCF Football (12-0): AAC Champions 

Post#345 » by MagicFan101 » Sun Dec 3, 2017 11:22 pm

Xatticus wrote:
MagicFan101 wrote:
tiderulz wrote:
ehh, i agree with some of what you said, disagree with others. there are more athletes overall on the bigger Power 5 schools than not. When you play against stronger foes, it takes a toll on you physically. And that leads to losses as injuries add up. I look at my own team's decimated LB position. I'm not saying its HS VS College ball. And also not saying that UCF doesnt have some top caliber athletes, but across the roster they dont. And where it usually shows up is at the OL and DL and the beating teams take. I cant agree that UCF is better than MSU or LSU or even FSU. Unfortunately, we will never know as they didnt play each other.



The UCF - Auburn Peach Bowl should show us a lot...


It will show you precisely what you want it to show you, because the game has been played before. Every time a small school beats a big school, it is dismissed by those that prefer to believe the myth. When they lose, it is simply affirmation for what they knew all along.

When Utah played Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, it was dismissed for these same old reasons. Utah has since been legitimized by their inclusion in the Pac 12, but they were the outsider at the time and Alabama's loss was written off as a fluke. That Alabama team was very similar to this year's team. Their only loss was against Florida in the SEC Championship Game. They would've made a playoff if a playoff existed at the time. Instead, they went to the Sugar Bowl where they were thumped by an undefeated team from the Mountain West.

If you take away Alabama's loss to Auburn, the resumes of Alabama and UCF are very similar. The Auburn game makes up the large majority of what gives Alabama a stronger SOS than UCF. I'd argue that Alabama was more impressive on the whole, but not by much. The average ranking of teams that UCF beat was 89.6 (by Massey). The average ranking of the teams that Alabama beat was 71.18. I'm not actually arguing that UCF is as good as Alabama, but rather that we lack the evidence to say that Alabama is definitively better. Nevertheless, they are in the playoff and UCF merited no consideration.

There are several teams with better resumes than Alabama that are going to get left out. Ohio St.'s resume is certainly better. Wisconsin's is essentially the same. Again, this isn't about who is better, but rather it is about why we think some teams are better than others despite us lacking any credible evidence to suggest as much. Our source of conviction is the myth that we cling to. This is social psychology. It is ingroup/outgroup dynamics. It's easy to claim that you are better than someone else when you don't have to prove it.

My solution to all of this is a 16-team playoff. Until such a time that we have one, this is largely a popularity contest.


Did you watch that UCF-Memphis game yesterday? Easily one of the most entertaining games of the year. No doubt about it.

But... those defenses were terrible. A better team (especially a traditional SEC / BIG team) would grind the call on the ground, absolutely dominate time of possession and elimate everything UCF tries to do.

There is really no point in arguing. We will see at the bowl game.
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Re: #10 UCF Football (12-0): AAC Champions 

Post#346 » by AdamTheGreek » Sun Dec 3, 2017 11:33 pm

Got my Peach Bowl ticket ($150 isn't a price tag I'm a fan of). I hate that the UCF site doesn't give you section or row numbers. Just need to worry about lodging with my group. Can't wait.

I'm glad it's Auburn and not another team we've recently played.

From what I hear, we're very quickly buying up our ticket allotment (12,500). I wouldn't be surprised if they gave us more.
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Re: #10 UCF Football (12-0): AAC Champions 

Post#347 » by Nemesis21 » Sun Dec 3, 2017 11:47 pm

Congrats on the Peach Bowl, UCF!! Auburn is going to be a tough matchup...
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Re: #10 UCF Football (12-0): AAC Champions 

Post#348 » by Xatticus » Mon Dec 4, 2017 12:22 am

MagicFan101 wrote:
Xatticus wrote:
MagicFan101 wrote:

The UCF - Auburn Peach Bowl should show us a lot...


It will show you precisely what you want it to show you, because the game has been played before. Every time a small school beats a big school, it is dismissed by those that prefer to believe the myth. When they lose, it is simply affirmation for what they knew all along.

When Utah played Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, it was dismissed for these same old reasons. Utah has since been legitimized by their inclusion in the Pac 12, but they were the outsider at the time and Alabama's loss was written off as a fluke. That Alabama team was very similar to this year's team. Their only loss was against Florida in the SEC Championship Game. They would've made a playoff if a playoff existed at the time. Instead, they went to the Sugar Bowl where they were thumped by an undefeated team from the Mountain West.

If you take away Alabama's loss to Auburn, the resumes of Alabama and UCF are very similar. The Auburn game makes up the large majority of what gives Alabama a stronger SOS than UCF. I'd argue that Alabama was more impressive on the whole, but not by much. The average ranking of teams that UCF beat was 89.6 (by Massey). The average ranking of the teams that Alabama beat was 71.18. I'm not actually arguing that UCF is as good as Alabama, but rather that we lack the evidence to say that Alabama is definitively better. Nevertheless, they are in the playoff and UCF merited no consideration.

There are several teams with better resumes than Alabama that are going to get left out. Ohio St.'s resume is certainly better. Wisconsin's is essentially the same. Again, this isn't about who is better, but rather it is about why we think some teams are better than others despite us lacking any credible evidence to suggest as much. Our source of conviction is the myth that we cling to. This is social psychology. It is ingroup/outgroup dynamics. It's easy to claim that you are better than someone else when you don't have to prove it.

My solution to all of this is a 16-team playoff. Until such a time that we have one, this is largely a popularity contest.


Did you watch that UCF-Memphis game yesterday? Easily one of the most entertaining games of the year. No doubt about it.

But... those defenses were terrible. A better team (especially a traditional SEC / BIG team) would grind the call on the ground, absolutely dominate time of possession and elimate everything UCF tries to do.

There is really no point in arguing. We will see at the bowl game.


We will see. The group of five is 2-1 so far in New Year's Six bowls. And if Auburn beats UCF you will have your definitive proof that the AAC is simply outmatched against these big conference schools?

I'd think you'd have more respect for the AAC given the outcome of the 2015 Peach Bowl:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Peach_Bowl
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Re: #10 UCF Football (12-0): AAC Champions 

Post#349 » by tiderulz » Mon Dec 4, 2017 12:42 am

Xatticus wrote:
MagicFan101 wrote:
tiderulz wrote:
ehh, i agree with some of what you said, disagree with others. there are more athletes overall on the bigger Power 5 schools than not. When you play against stronger foes, it takes a toll on you physically. And that leads to losses as injuries add up. I look at my own team's decimated LB position. I'm not saying its HS VS College ball. And also not saying that UCF doesnt have some top caliber athletes, but across the roster they dont. And where it usually shows up is at the OL and DL and the beating teams take. I cant agree that UCF is better than MSU or LSU or even FSU. Unfortunately, we will never know as they didnt play each other.



The UCF - Auburn Peach Bowl should show us a lot...


It will show you precisely what you want it to show you, because the game has been played before. Every time a small school beats a big school, it is dismissed by those that prefer to believe the myth. When they lose, it is simply affirmation for what they knew all along.

When Utah played Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, it was dismissed for these same old reasons. Utah has since been legitimized by their inclusion in the Pac 12, but they were the outsider at the time and Alabama's loss was written off as a fluke. That Alabama team was very similar to this year's team. Their only loss was against Florida in the SEC Championship Game. They would've made a playoff if a playoff existed at the time. Instead, they went to the Sugar Bowl where they were thumped by an undefeated team from the Mountain West.

If you take away Alabama's loss to Auburn, the resumes of Alabama and UCF are very similar. The Auburn game makes up the large majority of what gives Alabama a stronger SOS than UCF. I'd argue that Alabama was more impressive on the whole, but not by much. The average ranking of teams that UCF beat was 89.6 (by Massey). The average ranking of the teams that Alabama beat was 71.18. I'm not actually arguing that UCF is as good as Alabama, but rather that we lack the evidence to say that Alabama is definitively better. Nevertheless, they are in the playoff and UCF merited no consideration.

There are several teams with better resumes than Alabama that are going to get left out. Ohio St.'s resume is certainly better. Wisconsin's is essentially the same. Again, this isn't about who is better, but rather it is about why we think some teams are better than others despite us lacking any credible evidence to suggest as much. Our source of conviction is the myth that we cling to. This is social psychology. It is ingroup/outgroup dynamics. It's easy to claim that you are better than someone else when you don't have to prove it.

My solution to all of this is a 16-team playoff. Until such a time that we have one, this is largely a popularity contest.


except their resumes arent very similar. Did UCF schedule a preseason top-5 team? And you cant take away the Auburn game. Yes, Alabama lost, but they had to play that game. What similar game with UCF play? so already their resumes are different. Alabama played 4 teams that were ranked at the time and went 3-1. They also played teams that are over the entire conference better. UCF played 1 team ranked at the time they played them and went into overtime to beat them.

And that Alabama team that played Utah was in a hangover. And i was embarrassed by the way they played, it wasnt a fluke, Utah beat them. Now we did have to replace our starting LT that week, as he messed around with an agent, and that messes up a lot regarding protection for the QB. took them that first quarter to wake up, and then they outplayed Utah for quarters 2-4. but a game is 4 quarters and they lost it. But if a school like UCF played a full schedule in a major conference, i do think they would lose at least 1 more game.

and i do say that UCF being completely left out of the playoff talk is disappointing. But they also have to play some defense. UCF's total defense is ranked 91 (they do better in scoring defense at 53).

I also think that OSU's resume is very comparable. OSU lost by 30+ points to an unranked team. Also lost at home to a top-3 team. Bama lost 1 game, on the road by 12 pts to a top-6 team. Their best win, an unbeaten Wisconsin team (hard to go unbeaten, but they avoided the tough teams in the Big10). and Wisconsin looked outmatched against OSU. They have a significant win or 2 more but an extremely bad loss.

i think an 8 team playoff would be get it. 5 conference winners, 3 at large. But i wouldnt fight a 16 team playoff either, i can see the merits of it. The problem is that adds 4 more games to the schedule, meaning many teams would need to reduce their regular season games. And when some schools make their budgets off some of those games, that will be hard to convince people.
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Re: #11 UCF Football (12-0): AAC Champions 

Post#350 » by N4U|Redux » Mon Dec 4, 2017 12:47 am

UCF wrote:
N4U|Redux wrote:Congrats on an amazing, dominating season and capturing lightning in a bottle with Frost. I'm glad that's over, hopefully.


We’re set to be good again next year if the next coach doesn’t screw it up. We lose some key guys but most of our starters are freshman and sophomores.


See our Coach Strong and "screwing it up". He walked into a top offense and changed everything. It's unlikely you'll capture lightning in a bottle twice in a row. Sorry.
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Re: #10 UCF Football (12-0): AAC Champions 

Post#351 » by nymets1 » Mon Dec 4, 2017 1:20 am

If we can somehow beat Auburn, Could we maybe get them scheduled next year out of conference game? Somehow we need to play top 25 teams scheduled out of conference. Kerryon Johnson will probably be 100% for our bowl game , He wasn't 100% in the conference championship game. Jarrett Stidham is good, He's slightly better than Mckenzie Milton at best.
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Re: #10 UCF Football (12-0): AAC Champions 

Post#352 » by UCF » Mon Dec 4, 2017 1:35 am

Read on Twitter


I like the Boise coach a lot more today.
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Re: #10 UCF Football (12-0): AAC Champions 

Post#353 » by Xatticus » Mon Dec 4, 2017 1:39 am

tiderulz wrote:
Xatticus wrote:It will show you precisely what you want it to show you, because the game has been played before. Every time a small school beats a big school, it is dismissed by those that prefer to believe the myth. When they lose, it is simply affirmation for what they knew all along.

When Utah played Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, it was dismissed for these same old reasons. Utah has since been legitimized by their inclusion in the Pac 12, but they were the outsider at the time and Alabama's loss was written off as a fluke. That Alabama team was very similar to this year's team. Their only loss was against Florida in the SEC Championship Game. They would've made a playoff if a playoff existed at the time. Instead, they went to the Sugar Bowl where they were thumped by an undefeated team from the Mountain West.

If you take away Alabama's loss to Auburn, the resumes of Alabama and UCF are very similar. The Auburn game makes up the large majority of what gives Alabama a stronger SOS than UCF. I'd argue that Alabama was more impressive on the whole, but not by much. The average ranking of teams that UCF beat was 89.6 (by Massey). The average ranking of the teams that Alabama beat was 71.18. I'm not actually arguing that UCF is as good as Alabama, but rather that we lack the evidence to say that Alabama is definitively better. Nevertheless, they are in the playoff and UCF merited no consideration.

There are several teams with better resumes than Alabama that are going to get left out. Ohio St.'s resume is certainly better. Wisconsin's is essentially the same. Again, this isn't about who is better, but rather it is about why we think some teams are better than others despite us lacking any credible evidence to suggest as much. Our source of conviction is the myth that we cling to. This is social psychology. It is ingroup/outgroup dynamics. It's easy to claim that you are better than someone else when you don't have to prove it.

My solution to all of this is a 16-team playoff. Until such a time that we have one, this is largely a popularity contest.


except their resumes arent very similar. Did UCF schedule a preseason top-5 team? And you cant take away the Auburn game. Yes, Alabama lost, but they had to play that game. What similar game with UCF play? so already their resumes are different. Alabama played 4 teams that were ranked at the time and went 3-1. They also played teams that are over the entire conference better. UCF played 1 team ranked at the time they played them and went into overtime to beat them.

And that Alabama team that played Utah was in a hangover. And i was embarrassed by the way they played, it wasnt a fluke, Utah beat them. Now we did have to replace our starting LT that week, as he messed around with an agent, and that messes up a lot regarding protection for the QB. took them that first quarter to wake up, and then they outplayed Utah for quarters 2-4. but a game is 4 quarters and they lost it. But if a school like UCF played a full schedule in a major conference, i do think they would lose at least 1 more game.

and i do say that UCF being completely left out of the playoff talk is disappointing. But they also have to play some defense. UCF's total defense is ranked 91 (they do better in scoring defense at 53).

I also think that OSU's resume is very comparable. OSU lost by 30+ points to an unranked team. Also lost at home to a top-3 team. Bama lost 1 game, on the road by 12 pts to a top-6 team. Their best win, an unbeaten Wisconsin team (hard to go unbeaten, but they avoided the tough teams in the Big10). and Wisconsin looked outmatched against OSU. They have a significant win or 2 more but an extremely bad loss.

i think an 8 team playoff would be get it. 5 conference winners, 3 at large. But i wouldnt fight a 16 team playoff either, i can see the merits of it. The problem is that adds 4 more games to the schedule, meaning many teams would need to reduce their regular season games. And when some schools make their budgets off some of those games, that will be hard to convince people.


They scheduled a pre-season top five team? Are you talking about the 6-6 team that scraped out wins against Wake Forest, Duke, and Syracuse? Is that supposed to bolster Alabama's argument? That win isn't even noteworthy.

I omitted Auburn to point out the quality of the teams they actually beat. You don't get bonus points for getting thumped by good teams. If that were sound logic, there'd be at least a dozen teams with better arguments than Alabama. Memphis (which UCF beat twice) was as good as anyone Alabama beat.

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Wins against LSU and Mississippi St. don't impress anyone outside of SEC country. That's the equivalent of wins over Michigan and Northwestern. Or would NCST and Louisville be a better comparison? That's Alabama's best wins. They beat no one of consequence. Ohio St. has wins over two top ten teams. Stating that Wisconsin dodged the good teams in the Big Ten doesn't sound hypocritical to you?

Alabama didn't outplay Utah for three quarters in that bowl game. Alabama had 30 rushing yards, 200 total yards, and 4 turnovers. There are no moral victories to be found there.

I really didn't intend for this to devolve into a conversation about the merits of Alabama's inclusion in the playoff, but there should be more teams involved in the playoffs. The current system rewards perception over performance.
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Re: #10 UCF Football (12-0): AAC Champions 

Post#354 » by UCF » Mon Dec 4, 2017 1:48 am

Also, ordered my bowl tickets today in the allotment. Heard they’ve sold over 10k
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Re: #10 UCF Football (12-0): AAC Champions 

Post#355 » by UCF » Mon Dec 4, 2017 1:50 am

nymets1 wrote:If we can somehow beat Auburn, Could we maybe get them scheduled next year out of conference game? Somehow we need to play top 25 teams scheduled out of conference. Kerryon Johnson will probably be 100% for our bowl game , He wasn't 100% in the conference championship game. Jarrett Stidham is good, He's slightly better than Mckenzie Milton at best.



Having a new coach for next year I’m okay with having the schedule we have on the books. We likely will be ranked to start the year (especially if we win the bowl game).
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Re: #10 UCF Football (12-0): AAC Champions 

Post#356 » by UCF » Mon Dec 4, 2017 1:52 am

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I’d be okay with this hire. Cheaper contract and a quality recruiter.
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Re: #10 UCF Football (12-0): AAC Champions 

Post#357 » by nymets1 » Mon Dec 4, 2017 2:02 am

UCF wrote:
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I’d be okay with this hire. Cheaper contract and a quality recruiter.


If Kevin Sumlin talks stall? That doesn't sound like UCF is confident Kevin Sumlin is the one getting hired.
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Re: #10 UCF Football (12-0): AAC Champions 

Post#358 » by tiderulz » Mon Dec 4, 2017 2:42 am

Xatticus wrote:
tiderulz wrote:
Xatticus wrote:It will show you precisely what you want it to show you, because the game has been played before. Every time a small school beats a big school, it is dismissed by those that prefer to believe the myth. When they lose, it is simply affirmation for what they knew all along.

When Utah played Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, it was dismissed for these same old reasons. Utah has since been legitimized by their inclusion in the Pac 12, but they were the outsider at the time and Alabama's loss was written off as a fluke. That Alabama team was very similar to this year's team. Their only loss was against Florida in the SEC Championship Game. They would've made a playoff if a playoff existed at the time. Instead, they went to the Sugar Bowl where they were thumped by an undefeated team from the Mountain West.

If you take away Alabama's loss to Auburn, the resumes of Alabama and UCF are very similar. The Auburn game makes up the large majority of what gives Alabama a stronger SOS than UCF. I'd argue that Alabama was more impressive on the whole, but not by much. The average ranking of teams that UCF beat was 89.6 (by Massey). The average ranking of the teams that Alabama beat was 71.18. I'm not actually arguing that UCF is as good as Alabama, but rather that we lack the evidence to say that Alabama is definitively better. Nevertheless, they are in the playoff and UCF merited no consideration.

There are several teams with better resumes than Alabama that are going to get left out. Ohio St.'s resume is certainly better. Wisconsin's is essentially the same. Again, this isn't about who is better, but rather it is about why we think some teams are better than others despite us lacking any credible evidence to suggest as much. Our source of conviction is the myth that we cling to. This is social psychology. It is ingroup/outgroup dynamics. It's easy to claim that you are better than someone else when you don't have to prove it.

My solution to all of this is a 16-team playoff. Until such a time that we have one, this is largely a popularity contest.


except their resumes arent very similar. Did UCF schedule a preseason top-5 team? And you cant take away the Auburn game. Yes, Alabama lost, but they had to play that game. What similar game with UCF play? so already their resumes are different. Alabama played 4 teams that were ranked at the time and went 3-1. They also played teams that are over the entire conference better. UCF played 1 team ranked at the time they played them and went into overtime to beat them.

And that Alabama team that played Utah was in a hangover. And i was embarrassed by the way they played, it wasnt a fluke, Utah beat them. Now we did have to replace our starting LT that week, as he messed around with an agent, and that messes up a lot regarding protection for the QB. took them that first quarter to wake up, and then they outplayed Utah for quarters 2-4. but a game is 4 quarters and they lost it. But if a school like UCF played a full schedule in a major conference, i do think they would lose at least 1 more game.

and i do say that UCF being completely left out of the playoff talk is disappointing. But they also have to play some defense. UCF's total defense is ranked 91 (they do better in scoring defense at 53).

I also think that OSU's resume is very comparable. OSU lost by 30+ points to an unranked team. Also lost at home to a top-3 team. Bama lost 1 game, on the road by 12 pts to a top-6 team. Their best win, an unbeaten Wisconsin team (hard to go unbeaten, but they avoided the tough teams in the Big10). and Wisconsin looked outmatched against OSU. They have a significant win or 2 more but an extremely bad loss.

i think an 8 team playoff would be get it. 5 conference winners, 3 at large. But i wouldnt fight a 16 team playoff either, i can see the merits of it. The problem is that adds 4 more games to the schedule, meaning many teams would need to reduce their regular season games. And when some schools make their budgets off some of those games, that will be hard to convince people.


They scheduled a pre-season top five team? Are you talking about the 6-6 team that scraped out wins against Wake Forest, Duke, and Syracuse? Is that supposed to bolster Alabama's argument? That win isn't even noteworthy.

I omitted Auburn to point out the quality of the teams they actually beat. You don't get bonus points for getting thumped by good teams. If that were sound logic, there'd be at least a dozen teams with better arguments than Alabama. Memphis (which UCF beat twice) was as good as anyone Alabama beat.

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Wins against LSU and Mississippi St. don't impress anyone outside of SEC country. That's the equivalent of wins over Michigan and Northwestern. Or would NCST and Louisville be a better comparison? That's Alabama's best wins. They beat no one of consequence. Ohio St. has wins over two top ten teams. Stating that Wisconsin dodged the good teams in the Big Ten doesn't sound hypocritical to you?

Alabama didn't outplay Utah for three quarters in that bowl game. Alabama had 30 rushing yards, 200 total yards, and 4 turnovers. There are no moral victories to be found there.

I really didn't intend for this to devolve into a conversation about the merits of Alabama's inclusion in the playoff, but there should be more teams involved in the playoffs. The current system rewards perception over performance.


its not pure imagination to think that if Francois didnt go down against Bama for the year, FSU would be better. So yes, scheduling a preseason top-3 team is a big deal. What out of conference top-25 team did UCF schedule?

playing an away game and losing by 12 isnt getting "thumped" in my mind, guess we will disagree there. That still adds to the overall strength of schedule that Bama played. Guess we will see with LSU playing ND, how "bad" LSU is. And they place soo many players in the NFL, even if their coaching isnt great, they still have great players that beat up on teams.

And Alabama did outplay Utah for 3 quarters. I was actually at that game, they stopped the pass rush, outscored them 17-10. does it take away that 21 pt first quarter? no. as i said, they left their heart back in atlanta losing last second vs Florida for a chance at a title. not the last time Bama has lost a chance at title game and flopped in the bowl. i hate that my team does that.

and it seems like you did intend this to be about the merits of Bama, you started attacking them multiple posts ago.

and I have agreed that more teams should be involved. and i wouldnt have been upset it OSU had gone it, i thought both teams overall resumes were about even and i didnt think the committee would put 2 teams from 1 conference in, that surprised the heck out of me.
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Re: #10 UCF Football (12-0): AAC Champions 

Post#359 » by UCF » Mon Dec 4, 2017 3:11 am

AdamTheGreek wrote:Got my Peach Bowl ticket ($150 isn't a price tag I'm a fan of). I hate that the UCF site doesn't give you section or row numbers. Just need to worry about lodging with my group. Can't wait.

I'm glad it's Auburn and not another team we've recently played.

From what I hear, we're very quickly buying up our ticket allotment (12,500). I wouldn't be surprised if they gave us more.


Yeah, hefty price but we paid it. For me it’s about sitting with fellow knights and I know I’ll likely end up in the nose bleeds with my priority points.
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Re: #10 UCF Football (12-0): AAC Champions 

Post#360 » by Xatticus » Mon Dec 4, 2017 4:20 am

tiderulz wrote:
Xatticus wrote:
tiderulz wrote:
except their resumes arent very similar. Did UCF schedule a preseason top-5 team? And you cant take away the Auburn game. Yes, Alabama lost, but they had to play that game. What similar game with UCF play? so already their resumes are different. Alabama played 4 teams that were ranked at the time and went 3-1. They also played teams that are over the entire conference better. UCF played 1 team ranked at the time they played them and went into overtime to beat them.

And that Alabama team that played Utah was in a hangover. And i was embarrassed by the way they played, it wasnt a fluke, Utah beat them. Now we did have to replace our starting LT that week, as he messed around with an agent, and that messes up a lot regarding protection for the QB. took them that first quarter to wake up, and then they outplayed Utah for quarters 2-4. but a game is 4 quarters and they lost it. But if a school like UCF played a full schedule in a major conference, i do think they would lose at least 1 more game.

and i do say that UCF being completely left out of the playoff talk is disappointing. But they also have to play some defense. UCF's total defense is ranked 91 (they do better in scoring defense at 53).

I also think that OSU's resume is very comparable. OSU lost by 30+ points to an unranked team. Also lost at home to a top-3 team. Bama lost 1 game, on the road by 12 pts to a top-6 team. Their best win, an unbeaten Wisconsin team (hard to go unbeaten, but they avoided the tough teams in the Big10). and Wisconsin looked outmatched against OSU. They have a significant win or 2 more but an extremely bad loss.

i think an 8 team playoff would be get it. 5 conference winners, 3 at large. But i wouldnt fight a 16 team playoff either, i can see the merits of it. The problem is that adds 4 more games to the schedule, meaning many teams would need to reduce their regular season games. And when some schools make their budgets off some of those games, that will be hard to convince people.


They scheduled a pre-season top five team? Are you talking about the 6-6 team that scraped out wins against Wake Forest, Duke, and Syracuse? Is that supposed to bolster Alabama's argument? That win isn't even noteworthy.

I omitted Auburn to point out the quality of the teams they actually beat. You don't get bonus points for getting thumped by good teams. If that were sound logic, there'd be at least a dozen teams with better arguments than Alabama. Memphis (which UCF beat twice) was as good as anyone Alabama beat.

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Wins against LSU and Mississippi St. don't impress anyone outside of SEC country. That's the equivalent of wins over Michigan and Northwestern. Or would NCST and Louisville be a better comparison? That's Alabama's best wins. They beat no one of consequence. Ohio St. has wins over two top ten teams. Stating that Wisconsin dodged the good teams in the Big Ten doesn't sound hypocritical to you?

Alabama didn't outplay Utah for three quarters in that bowl game. Alabama had 30 rushing yards, 200 total yards, and 4 turnovers. There are no moral victories to be found there.

I really didn't intend for this to devolve into a conversation about the merits of Alabama's inclusion in the playoff, but there should be more teams involved in the playoffs. The current system rewards perception over performance.


its not pure imagination to think that if Francois didnt go down against Bama for the year, FSU would be better. So yes, scheduling a preseason top-3 team is a big deal. What out of conference top-25 team did UCF schedule?

playing an away game and losing by 12 isnt getting "thumped" in my mind, guess we will disagree there. That still adds to the overall strength of schedule that Bama played. Guess we will see with LSU playing ND, how "bad" LSU is. And they place soo many players in the NFL, even if their coaching isnt great, they still have great players that beat up on teams.

And Alabama did outplay Utah for 3 quarters. I was actually at that game, they stopped the pass rush, outscored them 17-10. does it take away that 21 pt first quarter? no. as i said, they left their heart back in atlanta losing last second vs Florida for a chance at a title. not the last time Bama has lost a chance at title game and flopped in the bowl. i hate that my team does that.

and it seems like you did intend this to be about the merits of Bama, you started attacking them multiple posts ago.

and I have agreed that more teams should be involved. and i wouldnt have been upset it OSU had gone it, i thought both teams overall resumes were about even and i didnt think the committee would put 2 teams from 1 conference in, that surprised the heck out of me.


I'm not understanding why it matters at all what FSU was ranked before the season. We had no evidence to support the pre-season rankings. We have evidence now. What if I told you that UCF beat an Alabama team that was ranked 3rd that season? That's what they were ranked to start the year anyway. As it turned out, Alabama lost eight games that year. Games are scheduled years before they take place. For all intents and purposes, it only really matters what that team looks like at the end of the season in question. Or so we have been led to believe.

Would FSU have been a better team with Francois? Probably. Sure. But that FSU team's problems went far deeper than QB play. Blackmon wasn't bad. That team was going to lose a bunch of games regardless of the injury.

Before playing Clemson a few years back, I'd read something about Georgia not playing a non-conference game outside of their state in a couple decades. There always has been a challenge for quality teams outside of the power conferences in their scheduling. Nobody wants to travel to play at Boise St. Georgia invited Boise St. to play at their place. Boise St. accepted and Georgia was punished for the invitation. When power five schools schedule against each other, it is always a home-and-home arrangement. Group of five schools get no such arrangements. If they are lucky, they get one home game for two road games, but most power five school won't even consider traveling to play anything other than a power five school. There are exceptions of course.

UCF scheduled Maryland and Georgia Tech. They lost the GT game to a hurricane. They haven't been shy about scheduling strong competition out of conference, but there are limitations to what these teams can do. Ask USF fans about this.

We have always accepted these SOS arguments, but what can you do about it? My criticism is in UCF's place; not Alabama's. Every time a non-AQ or group of five school has had a great season, we've been told it's about the schedule. If a two-loss Auburn or Ohio St. had made it into the playoff, that argument would still hold weight. UCF has no wins that are comparable to what Auburn or Ohio St. have this year. Each of those teams have two top-ten wins.

There is no clear distinction in the SOS of the teams that Alabama, UCF, or Wisconsin beat this year though. Alabama gets into the playoff. Wisconsin sits 6th. UCF wouldn't have even sniffed a spot in an eight-team playoff.

There is an agenda at work here. It doesn't bother most people when it works to their advantage. It bother me. It bothers me every bit as much as phantom superstar calls in the NBA do. The SOS argument doesn't explain UCF's ranking. Non-AQ and group of five schools are 7-4 in BCS and New Year's Six bowl games, but the next time they win will only serve as the next example of an aberration and the next loss will be definitive proof that they can't hang with the big boys.
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