All Things Luka Doncic

[Nikson]

That last possesion when Luka lost the ball was a clear foul on him by Antic. Luka faked him, Antic went up and cought his arm with the body, thats why the ball flew out of Lukas hands. He should have had 2 free throws and I am sure he would sink both of them. Zvezda was playing really aggressive on him, refs should call a few more fouls. He got beat up the whole game and was frustrated because of it. But this is good for him, he will learn and get "harder". Its a good preparation for NBA.

For the 4th time this season he had the highest PIR rating of the round and would have won an MVP if Real won the game. Becuse he has almost no help, Real won only 2 of those 4 games. Having the highest PIR of the round in 4 out of 10 games is incredible and just goes to show how much pressure is on his shoulders and how little help he has from his team mates. He is a runaway MVP candidate, if he just plays avergae for the rest of the season, he will easily win the MVP. Teams gameplan around him now and he is still playing like a beast but its not enough if his teammates are not capable of consistency. This team without Doncic would probably lose 22-24 out of 30 games in EL this year.

It seems to me he is getting more and more frustrated with Laso and his rotations and teammmates as well. Its actually good to see he has the ego, he will need it in the NBA. He is a star and having an ego is a good thing in basketball. Last year we were debating about lack of it and now heis showing it exists afterall;-) I hope Real keeps struggling and Luka keeps playing well. Team struggling will do him more good than winning all season, he will learn much more that way. When he gets to the NBA he will probably go to a bad team so he will already know how to handle it. I only see positives in whats happening right now...

I saw that statement. It tells me that he is definitely going to the NBA. Of course he will not say he is going, that could get him in trouble with Real. On the other hand if he was staying, he would definitely say so. He can easily skip 2018 draft and apply to 2019. He is definitely gone after this season and will be in the NBA next year. Why would an 18 year old MVP of EL stay in Europe one more year and stagnate? It doesnt make any sense at all...

Real's current record is 5-5. Someone on a .500 team is not winning a EuroLeague season MVP award.

Unless Real considerably picks up their win-loss performance, Doncic is not winning EuroLeague MVP. If they stay as a .500 team, he would have about a 0% chance of winning that award.

You understand that you are 100% claiming this without your skin in the game, do you?
So claim is 100% meaningless.

[Nikson]

I'll bet you anything you want at even odds that Real Madrid gets to Final 4. Literally I'll bet you 10k, no problem. If you think that's a bad bet for you to take, then you wrote your post in bad faith, just trying to oppose somebody for no reason. The rest of us are making reasonable claims based on reasonable assumptions. That's how life works.

He is generally a nice guy obviously. It’s just his posts are so funny 100%.

[Bob8]

I'll bet you anything you want at even odds that Real Madrid gets to Final 4. Literally I'll bet you 10k, no problem. If you think that's a bad bet for you to take, then you wrote your post in bad faith, just trying to oppose somebody for no reason. The rest of us are making reasonable claims based on reasonable assumptions. That's how life works.

I like Real and Doncic, but with 4 starters + Kuzmic out at the moment. Playing away Oly, Fener, Brose and home Barca, Valencia, things don’t look to bright for them. 2 wins in last 5 matches is very realistic. That will give them 7/15 wins. For home court advantage you need around 20 wins. Like they’re playing at the moment home court is out of the question, the fight is on to stay top 8. And let’s say they finish in top 8, they will have to play in playoffs against very good team without home court advantage and that’s very big disadvantage in Euroleague. Campazzo and Tavares can’t do anything in Euroleague. Real will basically have to wait till March, for returning of Llull and Ayon. And hope Llull can help right away, being out for 8 months. Your bet is far more dangerous than you think.

[XTraderXL]

They dont need to get to F4 for Doncic to win MVP if he keeps playing like he is playing. They just need to be in top 8, to get in the Playoffs. Real will pick it up, they have had too many injuries and the injured players will start coming back at some point. This team can keep .500 record for a while and they will have no problems getting into the PO when players come back. You can talk all you want but Doncic is the best player in EL by far this year and if they were giving an regular season MVP award right now, no other player would even stand a chance. And that is with Real at .500. That is just a fact and it means that if Real is at .500 and in the PO at the and of the season, Luka will be the MVP. Westbrook won the regular season MVP last year with his team being 8th seed in the West so why couldnt Doncic if he is the best player in EL and his team gets in the PO? The F4 MVP award is a different story...

[Bob8]

Calathes could be in contention if he will continue doing what he’s doing in last games and Pao continue to win games. Imho Calathes will be Mvp of November.

[Mirotic12]

They dont need to get to F4 for Doncic to win MVP if he keeps playing like he is playing. They just need to be in top 8, to get in the Playoffs. Real will pick it up, they have had too many injuries and the injured players will start coming back at some point. This team can keep .500 record for a while and they will have no problems getting into the PO when players come back. You can talk all you want but Doncic is the best player in EL by far this year and if they were giving an regular season MVP award right now, no other player would even stand a chance. And that is with Real at .500. That is just a fact and it means that if Real is at .500 and in the PO at the and of the season, Luka will be the MVP. Westbrook won the regular season MVP last year with his team being 8th seed in the West so why couldnt Doncic if he is the best player in EL and his team gets in the PO? The F4 MVP award is a different story...

Based on the history of the award, there is no way someone from a .500 team would win that award. I said, IF, IF, IF Real stayed at .500 there is no way he wins MVP. They probably start winning more games, but then again, so far they have been very mediocre.

In EuroLeague history, no player ever won the MVP without his team making the final four. Under the old format, all players were eligible if their teams made at least the top 16. And now under this format, all players are eligible, since the season starts at 16.

In the past, there were numerous times when players had enormous individual stats, on teams that made the top 16......and no MVP award. There have been plenty of examples of that.

No player ever got the award, by being in the lat 8 teams either. And again, there were several examples of guys with huge stats on top 8 teams.........but not final four and they didn't win MVP.

Doncic just being in the top 8 isn't winning the MVP. You can find plenty of guys with big stats on top 8 teams, and they were not the league MVP. The voters don't consider guys on teams outside the final four.

So the issue is, will Real make the final four? Based on talent, they should. It's clearly a top 5 team, even without Llull, talent-wise. But the simple fact is, they are not playing well as a team, and without a big improvement they won't make the final four. So it's not about anything Doncic does stats wise or individually, it's about the performance team wise.

If the vote was held today, it's going to someone like De Colo. Saying Doncic is 100% for sure guaranteed to be the league MVP is definitely false. It's not happening unless Real makes final four, and that's not 100% sure by any means.

[XTraderXL]

Since you know so much about the history of MVP award, tell me which player in history had a PIR of 27 and didnt win the MVP? Since Euroleague gives out MVP of the round based on PIR it is logical to conclude that a player with the highest average on a PO team will win the award. So again, which player that had the highest PIR and was on a top 8 team did not with the MVP? Tell me one name...

[Nikson]

Since you know so much about the history of MVP award, tell me which player in history had a PIR of 27 and didnt win the MVP? Since Euroleague gives out MVP of the round based on PIR it is logical to conclude that a player with the highest average on a PO team will win the award. So again, which player that had the highest PIR and was on a top 8 team did not with the MVP? Tell me one name...

Is that you, Portis?
We have a real NBA player on forum, yeeey.

If they sink too low, it will be really hard to get the MVP award. But hey, I don’t know if it is calculated or there is actually a voting system.

[UcanUwill]

Right now Nando De Colo has a strong case at Euroleague MVP.

[J_T]

I'll bet you anything you want at even odds that Real Madrid gets to Final 4. Literally I'll bet you 10k, no problem. If you think that's a bad bet for you to take, then you wrote your post in bad faith, just trying to oppose somebody for no reason. The rest of us are making reasonable claims based on reasonable assumptions. That's how life works.

Your bet is far more dangerous than you think.

My bet is completely risk free. Bookies currently have Real at 80% to finish top 3, not just top 4. So whatever the bet is I can hedge it for a huge guaranteed profit. And when you get a sucker to bet against you in such situation, hedging for guaranteed profit is the only way. In the end it doesn't even matter if you agree Real has 80% chance - you have liquid market that believes that.

They dont need to get to F4 for Doncic to win MVP if he keeps playing like he is playing.

Theoretically you are correct, 25% of online voting and 75% of media could literally pick anyone. It could be that they would make an exception in this case, but I believe that it has never happened that an MVP wouldn't have been from a F4 team. Wasn't there a season where by far the top PIR was by a player that didn't win it in the end, Marjanovic? Too lazy to check but I think he "only" got first team selection.

What makes Mirotic's claim ridiculous is the combination of Doncic's play and Real Madrid's expectation to reach the Final 4. That probability is very high, so high that it's not unreasonable to talk about Doncic being runaway fav to win the MVP.

Real will sign 10 more players if they have to. I have little doubt that they will reach F4. Guaranteed? Of course not.

[Bob8]

I'll bet you anything you want at even odds that Real Madrid gets to Final 4. Literally I'll bet you 10k, no problem. If you think that's a bad bet for you to take, then you wrote your post in bad faith, just trying to oppose somebody for no reason. The rest of us are making reasonable claims based on reasonable assumptions. That's how life works.

Your bet is far more dangerous than you think.

My bet is completely risk free. Bookies currently have Real at 80% to finish top 3, not just top 4. So whatever the bet is I can hedge it for a huge guaranteed profit. And when you get a sucker to bet against you in such situation, hedging for guaranteed profit is the only way. In the end it doesn't even matter if you agree Real has 80% chance - you have liquid market that believes that.

They dont need to get to F4 for Doncic to win MVP if he keeps playing like he is playing.

Theoretically you are correct, 25% of online voting and 75% of media could literally pick anyone. It could be that they would make an exception in this case, but I believe that it has never happened that an MVP wouldn't have been from a F4 team. Wasn't there a season where by far the top PIR was by a player that didn't win it in the end, Marjanovic? Too lazy to check but I think he "only" got first team selection.

What makes Mirotic's claim ridiculous is the combination of Doncic's play and Real Madrid's expectation to reach the Final 4. That probability is very high, so high that it's not unreasonable to talk about Doncic being runaway fav to win the MVP.

Real will sign 10 more players if they have to. I have little doubt that they will reach F4. Guaranteed? Of course not.

Which bookies have this odds? That’s ridiculous at this moment. Bookies have Oly heavy favorite against Real this week and if Oly wins, is 4 wins ahead of Real, the same Cska, Fener maybe isn’t a favorite at Barca, but can win for sure and after Barca plays 4/5 next games at home and is in great form at the moment. And then you have Pao, who has in next 7 games the easiest schedule of them all and 2 wins more than Real. With all injuries I don’t believe Real has 80% chances to be in top8, not in top3. Doncic is maybe really playing as Mvp, but Campazzo is a disaster, Tavares can’t defend pick&roll and Real has to play zone defense. Reyes is 37 and Thompkins is black hole in defense. Until Randolph returns, Real will play a lot of zone defense and hope opponents won’t have good shooting night. Randle is almost non existent. Rudy is playing good, but with his back problems, he can be in trouble very soon. If Real loses to Oly, they have almost do or die match next week, knowing that Barca already beat them in Madrid in Acb. If they lose this one too, they will be around 10th position, having 2 away and 1 home games till the end of the first half of the season. Meaning they will finished 7/15 at best. For home court advantage around 20 wins will be needed. That means 13/15 wins needed in second part of regular season. Possible? Yes. Probable? No. In sport anything can happen, but people who are putting Real in top 3 spots after regular season are very brave. Bookies normally aren’t that brave.

Btw. Calathes was awarded Mvp of November.

[burek3]

Are there any news if they are going to speed up the signing of Prepelic in January?

[J_T]

It does need to be said that if the EL playoff starts today, Real is actually qualified. So even with their terrible record, they are still a playoff team. What experts believe is that Real can't play worse than this and that they are almost certain to play better, with "much much better" being the probable outcome. So the optimism the market has here is based on that. I checked around a bit to see what professionals in the industry think and they confirmed they see Real as a top 3 fav to get to F4, and I asked it right now, today. The home court is important, but it's not the end of the world. Much more important will be the form of the teams when the series begin. And Real Madrid is counting on all their problems be gone by then. You look at Olympiacos Real game this week. Real is in deep trouble and yet Olympiacos is only 60% fav at home. With this % they would be winning 3/3 home games only 1 in 6 times. Real Madrid from the start of the season was 60-70% fav when playing away against some teams that are even ahead of them right now.

The main danger is to start talking about "if they lose this and they lose that, then..." First they need to play the game. If they keep losing the games, then obviously the chances will drop. But at the moment they are 50% at one third of the competition. Still many games left and time is supposed to be on Real's side. Perceived form of Real when the PO begins is the main factor.

[Bob8]

It does need to be said that if the EL playoff starts today, Real is actually qualified. So even with their terrible record, they are still a playoff team. What experts believe is that Real can't play worse than this and that they are almost certain to play better, with "much much better" being the probable outcome. So the optimism the market has here is based on that. I checked around a bit to see what professionals in the industry think and they confirmed they see Real as a top 3 fav to get to F4, and I asked it right now, today. The home court is important, but it's not the end of the world. Much more important will be the form of the teams when the series begin. And Real Madrid is counting on all their problems be gone by then. You look at Olympiacos Real game this week. Real is in deep trouble and yet Olympiacos is only 60% fav at home. With this % they would be winning 3/3 home games only 1 in 6 times. Real Madrid from the start of the season was 60-70% fav when playing away against some teams that are even ahead of them right now.

The main danger is to start talking about "if they lose this and they lose that, then..." First they need to play the game. If they keep losing the games, then obviously the chances will drop. But at the moment they are 50% at one third of the competition. Still many games left and time is supposed to be on Real's side. Perceived form of Real when the PO begins is the main factor.

I don’t know with who are you talking, but they’re wrong. You’re forgetting one important fact, Real was 4:0, and now they have lost 5 games of last 6, beating only the worst team in Euroleague, Unicaja at home. It’s obvious injuries hit them hard. And situation is not better at the moment. Maybe Taylor can be back this week, but that’s all. If they lose against Oly they will be 1/7 and having el classico next week, which is not a normal game, especially this year, with everything that happened in Catalonia. Losing el classico would be a disaster in situation like that. 5/5 wouldn’t have been tragic, if Real would have missed only Llull, they even showed they can play without Randolph, but Ayon was proved to be irreplaceable. Maccabi had 23 rebounds more, with 21 offensive rebounds. Real with current team is not 5:5: but 1:5 and not only that, schedule in last 5 games of first half is very difficult, away Oly, Fener, Brose, home Barca, Valencia, meaning that they had already played the easiest games of first half. Llull and Ayon should return only in March, playing only last 7 games. And it’s a big question mark how Llull will look after that kind of injury and 8 months out, Ayon will probably have less problems, but both will need some time. At this moment Real will have to start winning without 3 starters and like Doncic is playing, there is almost no room from improvement there. He’s playing more or less on max. this 2 months. The keys will be Campazzo and Tavares and I cannot be optimistic there.

Home court is a great advantage in Euroleague. Especially if we know who will probably be in first 4 places. Last year Fener beat Pao, but they needed career performance from Bogdanovic and incredible Udoh. Fener and Oly have very difficult home court too. Maybe the easiest would be beating Cska, because they don’t have the best fans, but Cska in series is almost unbeatable in last 15 years.

You should tell your friends in industry, they have to change odds or maybe take advantage of them.

[J_T]

It's hard to tell that to someone who has been supporting himself and his family with betting on basketball for 20 years. Especially when I completely agree with them.

The playoff starts in April, not tomorrow. That will be a completely different team.

Olympiacos is currently placed second, playing at home and yet they are considered only 60% fav. if you think that's wrong, you can exploit it yourself. You can bet literally a million.

You can't fool mathematics. It's easy to calculate what home court advantage is worth and Real will probably be the fav in that playoff series even without home court advantage, as long as they will actually be the better team. I think they will be the better team, but of course it could be that they wouldn't be. Having no home court advantage is NOT end of the world.

The main point is that there is enough liquidity to support my view and allow me to hedge the bet so no risk there. We will see what actually happens.

[Bob8]

It's hard to tell that to someone who has been supporting himself and his family with betting on basketball for 20 years. Especially when I completely agree with them.

The playoff starts in April, not tomorrow. That will be a completely different team.

Olympiacos is currently placed second, playing at home and yet they are considered only 60% fav. if you think that's wrong, you can exploit it yourself. You can bet literally a million.

You can't fool mathematics. It's easy to calculate what home court advantage is worth and Real will probably be the fav in that playoff series even without home court advantage, as long as they will actually be the better team. I think they will be the better team, but of course it could be that they wouldn't be. Having no home court advantage is NOT end of the world.

The main point is that there is enough liquidity to support my view and allow me to hedge the bet so no risk there. We will see what actually happens.

I have enough “gambling” on stock exchange and I like odds much more there. But I have won back2back Euroleague fantasy in
last 2 years, so I have to know something above Euroleague.

Anything can happen. But mistake you and your friends are doing is, you’re predicting future results on old data. Real is with all injuries not the same team like it was 1 month ago. Real is the worst team in last 6 games in Euroleague. Before they start winning some games, you can’t calculate like they’re still one the best teams in Euroleague, because they’re not at the moment. in last month they have lost against Baskonia, Pao and Maccabi away and Khimki, Zvezda at home, and beat only Unicaja, not exactly that they played against the best teams in Euroleague. Just look at Real’s starting 5 and you can see that more than half teams have better starting 5. If they will continue to lose, it won’t even matter how they will play in April. And we don’t know in which position will Real be in March, when Llull and Ayon return and we don’t know how Llull and Ayon will look either. Calculations should be remade or you will have garbage in in garbage out situation.
About playoffs, it looks to me you don’t know some facts. Last year Fener was first team ever to go 0:2 up after 2 away games. And like I said, Bogdanovic looked like LeBron in this 2 nights. In last 4 years it’s 14:2 for teams with home court advantage. Pretty convincing. Saying all that, I’m big fan of Real Madrid and hope you and your friends are right and I’m wrong. But honestly I’m not believing that.. Bet on Real not coming in F4 looks incredible interesting if the odds are really that in favor of coming.

[KD95]

It seems like I wasn't the only one who noticed that he has made some mistakes in crunch time during some of the games lately, there's a report on a Spanish site today that apparently Real Madrid has had an (informal) talk with him + his representatives about these late game situations. As far as I can tell from my very basic knowledge of Spanish, it doesn't seem to be a serious thing, but I found it interesting. I would appreciate it if someone who speaks Spanish could give a tl;dr of the article.

https://www.elespanol.com/deportes/baloncesto/20171204/266974364_0.html

[Bob8]

It seems like I wasn't the only one who noticed that he has made some mistakes in crunch time during some of the games lately, there's a report on a Spanish site today that apparently Real Madrid has had an (informal) talk with him + his representatives about these late game situations. As far as I can tell from my very basic knowledge of Spanish, it doesn't seem to be a serious thing, but I found it interesting. I would appreciate it if someone who speaks Spanish could give a tl;dr of the article.

https://www.elespanol.com/deportes/baloncesto/20171204/266974364_0.html

They’re basically saying he must be more relax in final stages. I guess taking more shots and responsibilities on him. Great for Doncic.

[burek3]

I agree, he should stop giving the ball to Campazzo in last 2 minutes of games.

[Bob8]

People don’t realize how much burden is on Doncic at the moment. With all injuries, he suddenly became almost only weapon of Real. If he breaks, Real is done for the season. Nobody wants that. Not Real and not Doncic’s camp, so they try to put some burden off him, but I don’t believe they can change much before at least Randolph comes back. Real is just to weak at the moment. Especially in defense.