King of Empty stats

[homecourtloss]

[JonFromVA]

In 2014, Love finished with a 26.9 PER (same as Duncan’s 2003 MVP season, higher than Barkley’s MVP season, and higher than all three of Bird’s MVP seasons) and .245 win shares per 48 minutes (higher than Bird’s three MVP seasons, LeBron’s first Miami season and Barkley’s MVP season).

And that is why stats don't tell the whole story. Love was never as good as the players you listed. In Minnesota Love was the major reason for the Timberwolves being competitive. But he was also a reason for the Timberwolves always finishing below their expected win total in his time there.

It's become very difficult for big men to close games. It's too easy to swarm the paint and send double teams from every direction or use various ball denial methods. Fatigue is another factor that often hits big men harder and contributes to fourth quarter fades.

So, you force the ball out of Love's hands ... and it's up Rubio, Pek, or Corey Brewer to try to create something?

Of course the TWolves struggled to win close games.

Again, I'd never call Kevin a superstar, because he's never going to have the effect a TD or KG are going to have because even when they don't have the ball - they're leading the defense; but he sure doesn't belong in this thread. Fans have a tendency to over-react to big time stats like Kevin put up, though, and I think it generates a negative reaction from other fans. They may have been inflated by circumstances (lack of other scorers, lack of other rebounders, etc), but that doesn't make them empty.

[Beffiosa]

Player Y goes 82-0 and played the 4th quarter of 30 games when leading by 20 points after 3. He averaged 25 points and a PER of 27
Player X goes 0-82 with 79 games coming down to a single possession. He averaged 27 points with a PER of 25.
Who would you say had the more empty stats?

[SactoKingsFan]

Shareef Abdur-Rahim
Mitch Richmond
Tom Chambers
Wiggins
DeRozan

At least the first few off the top of my head.

Mitch Richmond never had a player better than Abdul-Rauf or Brian Grant as a #2 option on those Kings teams. Richmond player hard for those teams but they were so poorly ran. Even got them into the playoffs one year. Not his fault he got traded to a sideshow.

He was still a guy in the low 20's in PER scoring 25 a game...

Empty stats don't make you by definition a bad player. But he would have been a lot more valuable scoring 20 at a decent efficiency.

Scoring 20 on just decent efficiency would be a step back for prime Richmond, who was actually a pretty efficient scorer. He played with subpar supporting cast in SAC but still managed 56.4 prime TS% and 57.8 the one season he averaged 25+ points.

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[theonlyclutch]

I can read fine:

In 2014, Love finished with a 26.9 PER (same as Duncan’s 2003 MVP season, higher than Barkley’s MVP season, and higher than all three of Bird’s MVP seasons) and .245 win shares per 48 minutes (higher than Bird’s three MVP seasons, LeBron’s first Miami season and Barkley’s MVP season).

And that is why stats don't tell the whole story. Love was never as good as the players you listed. In Minnesota Love was the major reason for the Timberwolves being competitive. But he was also a reason for the Timberwolves always finishing below their expected win total in his time there.

Blame this guy

MIN are, for once, finally playing up to their expected win totals now that he's gone...

[knicksNOTslick]

Several Knicks come to mind to be honest.

Eddy Curry
Stephon Marbury
Derrick Rose
Carmelo Anthony the past 4 years

I disagree with the Stephon Marbury pick but the rest I wholeheartedly agree with. I would also like to add Al Harrington.

Stephon Marbury was pretty good when he first got to the Knicks. The Knicks just didn't surround him with enough talent and when they did, it wasn't the right fit (Steve Francis). They also hired Larry Brown who ruined his game. Also, his dad had chest pains watching one of his games and died at the hospital later on. He was never the same after that.

But I don't think Stephon put up empty stats.

[Jables]

Empty stats aren't necessarily just losers taking game long breaks on D yet going all out for rebounds, how many great players do we see refuse to shoot a 3 at the end of a period? You think they treat a lot of other facets of the game any differently? We are in an era where a lot of stats can't be taken at face value, or at least more so than the past.

Maybe Alex English just for guys that had great stats yet weren't that relevant.

[HoopsMalone]

Just for the record "empty stats" are guys who put up large raw totals but do not contribute towards helping your team win. It doesn't actually matter if your team is good or bad. You can be an empty stats guy on the 2017 Warriors or the 2016 76ers...

And Kevin Love is not an empty stats guy. His Minnesota raw totals may overstate his impact a little, but he was still a good player. And he's been a very good one in Cleveland as well. He doesn't match up well against the Warriors, but to say he's a poor defender is just completely false.

[righterwriter]

[PharmD]

While I don't think he is a king of empty stats, I do think that stats (traditional and advanced) overrate Kevin Love's impact. There is a reason why during his time in Minnesota the T'wolves year after year had a worse record than what they should have gotten based on their point-differential / SRS.

Cuz they were foooking terrible whenever Love was on the bench?

[dhsilv2]

What about his ORAPM? We already know his defense is poor and will drag down the stats, and that tends to not get properly measured in box score metrics.

2013-14 Kevin Love: 2.83 ORAPM, 0.80 DRAPM

If you want to argue his boxscire stats were a touch high given that, ok. But that is still a pretty solid RAPM. Star level given his role.

[dhsilv2]

Mitch Richmond never had a player better than Abdul-Rauf or Brian Grant as a #2 option on those Kings teams. Richmond player hard for those teams but they were so poorly ran. Even got them into the playoffs one year. Not his fault he got traded to a sideshow.

He was still a guy in the low 20's in PER scoring 25 a game...

Empty stats don't make you by definition a bad player. But he would have been a lot more valuable scoring 20 at a decent efficiency.

Scoring 20 on just decent efficiency would be a step back for prime Richmond, who was actually a pretty efficient scorer. He played with subpar supporting cast in SAC but still managed 56.4 prime TS% and 57.8 the one season he averaged 25+ points.

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A 25 a game guy should provide a better per than very low 20s.

[dhsilv2]

While I don't think he is a king of empty stats, I do think that stats (traditional and advanced) overrate Kevin Love's impact. There is a reason why during his time in Minnesota the T'wolves year after year had a worse record than what they should have gotten based on their point-differential / SRS.

Cuz they were foooking terrible whenever Love was on the bench?

The high SRS is the result of loves impact. To then dismiss him like this guy is doing based on not winning close games is completely illogical.

[Torgeir Bryn]

2010-11: Expected W/L 24-58 - actual W/L 17-65

"However, from March 20 of that season (when he left the game injured) until the season's bitter end, the Wolves went 0-12, losing by almost 15 points per game without Love. The box score for the last Twolves' victory that season is below:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201103110MIN.html
Look at that starting lineup for the Twolves: Beasley, Milicic, Ridnour and Wesley Johnson, with Jonny Flynn the first guy off the bench. Face it, outside of Love, the construction of that team was historically bad. The second best player on that team overall was Beasley...who would go on to lose his starting job in 2012 on the 23-46 (.333) Suns, for heck's sake! I.e., that that year's Twolves didn’t set futility records of some sort or other testifies to Love's greatness, frankly."

2011-12: Expected W/L 28-38 - actual W/L 26-40

Due to injury, Love missed the first month, and played in just 55 games total. Of these, the Twolves had 24 wins, with 31 losses. In other words, they would have exceeded the expected win total if Love had stayed healthy.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/loveke01/gamelog/2012/

2012-13: Expected W/L 34-48 - actual W/L 31-51

Love was injured and only played 18 games. Note that the Twolves had 9 wins and 9 losses (.500) in those games. In other words, they would have exceeded the expected win total if Love had stayed healthy.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/loveke01/gamelog/2013/

2013-14: Expected W/L 48-34 - actual W/L 40-42

"The 2014 Wolves were 6.1 points better than opponents when Love played...and 5.6 points worse than opponents when he rested. That's just about a 12-point swing[...]. Still, you needed to watch the games to fully understand the problems. I was actually at this game:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201312220LAC.html
Rubio went for zero (0) points against the Clippers in 39 minutes (while Love went for 45/19/6/1 on 60% shooting against Griffin ) and some Twolves fans (links available if necessary) were blaming the loss on Love/Adelman. Note that the Clippers were double-teaming Love with Rubio's guy--i.e., Rubio was basically being left unguarded (and still couldn't hit a shot). Repeatedly, I watched the Clippers bench actually LAUGH at Rubio for being too scared to/unable to score."



Edited to add: While you could perhaps argue that Love was somewhat injury-prone, I can't see how you can argue that he wasn't positively impacting the Twolves when healthy. The bottom line was that whenever Love sat--whether due to injury or just to rest--the Twolves went into a death spiral. There was nobody else on that roster to take up the slack on offense. Rubio couldn't score in an empty gym, and Pek, while capable, was most effective in the post (limited range) and injured about as much as Love.

I think you might misunderstand what "Expected W/L" means here. It is not a line set before the season starts or anything like that, it is based on the point differential of their games. So if Love had played more games, their point differential would probably be better and their expected w/l would probably be higher. Of course, having a star like Love might make them beat their expected record, for example by taking over in the clutch, but we do not know what that record would have been if he had played a full season.

[JonFromVA]

2010-11: Expected W/L 24-58 - actual W/L 17-65

"However, from March 20 of that season (when he left the game injured) until the season's bitter end, the Wolves went 0-12, losing by almost 15 points per game without Love. The box score for the last Twolves' victory that season is below:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201103110MIN.html
Look at that starting lineup for the Twolves: Beasley, Milicic, Ridnour and Wesley Johnson, with Jonny Flynn the first guy off the bench. Face it, outside of Love, the construction of that team was historically bad. The second best player on that team overall was Beasley...who would go on to lose his starting job in 2012 on the 23-46 (.333) Suns, for heck's sake! I.e., that that year's Twolves didn’t set futility records of some sort or other testifies to Love's greatness, frankly."

2011-12: Expected W/L 28-38 - actual W/L 26-40

Due to injury, Love missed the first month, and played in just 55 games total. Of these, the Twolves had 24 wins, with 31 losses. In other words, they would have exceeded the expected win total if Love had stayed healthy.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/loveke01/gamelog/2012/

2012-13: Expected W/L 34-48 - actual W/L 31-51

Love was injured and only played 18 games. Note that the Twolves had 9 wins and 9 losses (.500) in those games. In other words, they would have exceeded the expected win total if Love had stayed healthy.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/loveke01/gamelog/2013/

2013-14: Expected W/L 48-34 - actual W/L 40-42

"The 2014 Wolves were 6.1 points better than opponents when Love played...and 5.6 points worse than opponents when he rested. That's just about a 12-point swing[...]. Still, you needed to watch the games to fully understand the problems. I was actually at this game:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201312220LAC.html
Rubio went for zero (0) points against the Clippers in 39 minutes (while Love went for 45/19/6/1 on 60% shooting against Griffin ) and some Twolves fans (links available if necessary) were blaming the loss on Love/Adelman. Note that the Clippers were double-teaming Love with Rubio's guy--i.e., Rubio was basically being left unguarded (and still couldn't hit a shot). Repeatedly, I watched the Clippers bench actually LAUGH at Rubio for being too scared to/unable to score."



Edited to add: While you could perhaps argue that Love was somewhat injury-prone, I can't see how you can argue that he wasn't positively impacting the Twolves when healthy. The bottom line was that whenever Love sat--whether due to injury or just to rest--the Twolves went into a death spiral. There was nobody else on that roster to take up the slack on offense. Rubio couldn't score in an empty gym, and Pek, while capable, was most effective in the post (limited range) and injured about as much as Love.

I think you might misunderstand what "Expected W/L" means here. It is not a line set before the season starts or anything like that, it is based on the point differential of their games. So if Love had played more games, their point differential would probably be better and their expected w/l would probably be higher. Of course, having a star like Love might make them beat their expected record, for example by taking over in the clutch, but we do not know what that record would have been if he had played a full season.

Taking '13/'14 for example ... the TWolves outscored their opponents 56.6% of the time when Love was on the floor - with their entire starting 5 on the floor that shoots up to 67.3% - very effective.

However, in clutch time, the TWolves outscored other teams only 40.5% of the time with Love on the floor (and he was on the floor in 94% of those situations). So, they win a bunch of blow-outs, but lose the majority of close games. That's how you end up with the disparity between scoring margin and winning %.

Basically, Rubio never evolved.

[Danny1616]

I can read fine:

And that is why stats don't tell the whole story. Love was never as good as the players you listed. In Minnesota Love was the major reason for the Timberwolves being competitive. But he was also a reason for the Timberwolves always finishing below their expected win total in his time there.

Blame this guy

MIN are, for once, finally playing up to their expected win totals now that he's gone...

You do realize that they just got a perennial all-star in Jimmy Butler and their very talented young core got older...

But yeah just blame Rubio.

[taikibansei]

2010-11: Expected W/L 24-58 - actual W/L 17-65

"However, from March 20 of that season (when he left the game injured) until the season's bitter end, the Wolves went 0-12, losing by almost 15 points per game without Love. The box score for the last Twolves' victory that season is below:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201103110MIN.html
Look at that starting lineup for the Twolves: Beasley, Milicic, Ridnour and Wesley Johnson, with Jonny Flynn the first guy off the bench. Face it, outside of Love, the construction of that team was historically bad. The second best player on that team overall was Beasley...who would go on to lose his starting job in 2012 on the 23-46 (.333) Suns, for heck's sake! I.e., that that year's Twolves didn’t set futility records of some sort or other testifies to Love's greatness, frankly."

2011-12: Expected W/L 28-38 - actual W/L 26-40

Due to injury, Love missed the first month, and played in just 55 games total. Of these, the Twolves had 24 wins, with 31 losses. In other words, they would have exceeded the expected win total if Love had stayed healthy.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/loveke01/gamelog/2012/

2012-13: Expected W/L 34-48 - actual W/L 31-51

Love was injured and only played 18 games. Note that the Twolves had 9 wins and 9 losses (.500) in those games. In other words, they would have exceeded the expected win total if Love had stayed healthy.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/loveke01/gamelog/2013/

2013-14: Expected W/L 48-34 - actual W/L 40-42

"The 2014 Wolves were 6.1 points better than opponents when Love played...and 5.6 points worse than opponents when he rested. That's just about a 12-point swing[...]. Still, you needed to watch the games to fully understand the problems. I was actually at this game:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201312220LAC.html
Rubio went for zero (0) points against the Clippers in 39 minutes (while Love went for 45/19/6/1 on 60% shooting against Griffin ) and some Twolves fans (links available if necessary) were blaming the loss on Love/Adelman. Note that the Clippers were double-teaming Love with Rubio's guy--i.e., Rubio was basically being left unguarded (and still couldn't hit a shot). Repeatedly, I watched the Clippers bench actually LAUGH at Rubio for being too scared to/unable to score."



Edited to add: While you could perhaps argue that Love was somewhat injury-prone, I can't see how you can argue that he wasn't positively impacting the Twolves when healthy. The bottom line was that whenever Love sat--whether due to injury or just to rest--the Twolves went into a death spiral. There was nobody else on that roster to take up the slack on offense. Rubio couldn't score in an empty gym, and Pek, while capable, was most effective in the post (limited range) and injured about as much as Love.

I think you might misunderstand what "Expected W/L" means here. It is not a line set before the season starts or anything like that, it is based on the point differential of their games. So if Love had played more games, their point differential would probably be better and their expected w/l would probably be higher. Of course, having a star like Love might make them beat their expected record, for example by taking over in the clutch, but we do not know what that record would have been if he had played a full season.

You're probably right that I did misunderstand. However, I personally had never seen someone making "Expected W/L" into an argument against one player. It would seem that the occasional blowout victory against a weak opponent would almost become a bad thing, driving up expectations but neither signaling nor bringing any improvements in personnel!

Love not taking over in the clutch keeps getting brought up as "the problem." This again seemingly underlines the weakness of this particular measuring tool when used in isolation to criticize one player. You know, Lowe wrote a great article analyzing the Twolves issues with Love in crunch time:

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-question-of-kevin-love/

The more high-profile meltdowns happen on offense, where the normally hard-to-guard Wolves have managed just 87 points per 100 possession on 24-of-76 shooting from the floor, per NBA.com.

Love is not the problem here. He’s 12-of-27 in these situations, with a pile of monster makes — of 31 players who have attempted at least 25 such shots, only LeBron James, Damian Lillard, and Tyreke Evans have hit a higher percentage, per NBA.com. He draws double- and even triple-teams all over the floor in crunch time. The rest of the team is 12-of-49. Rubio is 1-of-5, and two of those attempts came in Minnesota’s first game of the season.

Rubio had a frisky month of games stretching from mid-February through mid-March in which he shot 47 percent and hit an acceptable percentage of shots in the restricted area. He has also emerged as close to an average 3-point shooter, though his raw percentage is a bit misleading. He takes only two triples per 36 minutes, a career low, and he gets those shots because teams don’t bother guarding him.

Rubio’s lack of scoring punch indisputably hurts Minnesota late, which is why Adelman has overplayed Barea in fourth quarters to the frustration of every breathing basketball fan. But with Rubio neutered as a scoring threat, Minnesota has almost no off-the-dribble creator. It has no one who can take the ball from the perimeter into the paint and get buckets. Martin’s off-the-dribble game stops outside the paint and results in brutally tough shots like this.

The full article is a great read, by the way. So, in other words, the Twolves with Love would blow out weaker teams because Love was that good--thereby raising the expected win total--but the better teams would keep it close and then just double-down on Love at the end, forcing Rubio (or Martin, or Barea) to beat them. And they couldn't. And this was Love's fault? (Not saying that you made this particular point, but the other guy certainly did....)

[Antinomy]

Has anyone mentioned Drew Gooden yet?

Dude was the monarch of empty stats. He always seemed to get 20/10 or a triple double in losses.

[GiggitySmalls]

Melo? Tmac comes to also comes to mind. 2 perennial all stars who never won a thing in the NBA.

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[Smash3]

Melo? Tmac comes to also comes to mind. 2 perennial all stars who never won a thing in the NBA.

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That's ridiculous, T–Mac was a great player, replace him with Kobe in the 00s or Wade in 06 and neither teams skip a beat. His only problem was he played with terrible players most of his career, and by the time he had a good team late 00s he was riddled with injuries and not the same player.