What's preventing Demar DeRozan from making that leap into a Superstardom like Harden years ago?

[Mikistan]

An all around game?

Max contract guys can typically affect every single play on the court to impact the game.

Demar is typically a negative defensively, and a positive offensively (even if it takes 30 shots).

[FNQ]

You state this like its a bad thing? Stealing 2 games from the eventual champs is nothing to sneeze at. With Golden State and Cleveland running the show, nobody realistically has a shot for a title regardless. Even with Boston's rise to the top seed, there is no team outside these two and San Antonio that the Raptors wouldn't have a shot against.

DeMar has always been a player that is more valuable than the advance stats say. Sure that is a cop-out answer and believe me all Raptors fans wish he would play better defense, but he is what he is. Being labelled just Top 40 for a player that has accomplished what he has in the past 4 seasons is insulting.

People say that he has all these deficiencies offensively but he is still the #1 option on the Raptors and doing it on average level efficiency. I just wish people would realize that doing so is much harder than people think. Lowry is a polar opposite with the advanced stats showing how great he is, but without DeMar taking away that defensive attention, he wouldn't be able to what he has been able to do.

Yes, in 4 years, I'd say its pretty bad, considering they took 2 inferior teams to 7 games, DeRozan had to play out of his mind, and the rest of the years are 1st round exits.


- he's not more valuable than advanced stats say because advanced stats are designed to pull value from things that fans cant process all at once. The only factor advanced stats can't reasonably measure is clutch, because every minute is the same to them. And while DeRozan is reasonably clutch, the perceived level of value from counting stats fans to advanced stats fans is vast.

- he absolutely is being a #1 with average level efficiency. THATS THE PROBLEM! Who wins when your #1 option is performing at an average level, and only on one side of the court? I'm saying the same thing - the Raptors will not get better until they put a legitimate #1 option in there, or give more looks to Lowry at the expense of DeRozan

- I have no doubt that DeRozan commands enough attention to take some of the onus off Lowry, and I'm saying that the Raptors should focus on that more. There's a similarly credible argument that DeRozan has been able to drive a lot more effectively with a sharpshooting PG creating more space than guys like Ben Uzoh and Jerryd Bayless. DeRozan wasn't able to score 20 ppg pre Lowry, so I'd say there's a mutual benefical thing going on there.

Bottom line is that at best, DeRozan needs to be a #2 on an offense. And because that is paired with really lousy defense, I think giving him the benefit of the doubt and calling him top 40 is closer to generous than it is insulting.

[dhsilv2]

Talk about individual accolades all you want, but fans want to win more than anything, and *every single advanced metric* shows that DeRozan would be helping his team more if he ceded more shots (unless he develops a 3ball) and played better defense. And the Raps will be hamstrung as a top 4 Eastern playoff team with little hopes for a title until it's addressed.. we're now in year 5 of 20ppg DeRozan and the best they've gotten to is game 6 of the ECF, and that was with DeRozan putting up some great individual #s in that series.

No that is not the reason. Here is the Raptors:
DeRozan
Lowry

Now here are the Warriors:
Kevin Durant
Stephen Curry
Draymond Green
Klay Thompson


THAT'S the difference in winning. A team of Lowry, DeRozan, Durant and Draymond would legit contend for a title even if DeRozan still took 1/4 of the shots and played porous defense. The Warriors and the Cavs simply have better talent.

As said above, DeRozan is 27th in the league in Potential Assists, ahead of Kyrie Irving, Mike Conley, Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and much much more. This is good enough if he had more talent on his team.

Again, DeRozan has deficiencies that stop him from being MVP-caliber superstar player. But to say that he shouldn't have even gotten 3rd team, or that no team can win with him in his current state is just wrong.

When there was a better guard on his own team...yeah I'll say he shouldn't have been all nba last year. I'll say it loudly, that was a huge mistake.

[KnightofHyrule]

As said above, DeRozan is 27th in the league in Potential Assists, ahead of Kyrie Irving, Mike Conley, Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and much much more. This is good enough if he had more talent on his team.

Again, DeRozan has deficiencies that stop him from being MVP-caliber superstar player. But to say that he shouldn't have even gotten 3rd team, or that no team can win with him in his current state is just wrong.

Potential assists are not a valuable tool. They indicate ball-handling time more than anything. Any outcome - be it a shot, a turnover, or a foul - is all thats needed by the person who received the pass to create a potential assist. So that number to me doesnt have much meaning.

Yes, and DeRozan's usage rate is way lower than Kyrie's & Giannis', and he's almost tied with KD. Yet he still has ceded more shots than them. In the context of DeRozan, where people lambast him for playing ISO all the time and not moving the ball, of course it is a valuable tool.

[Mikistan]

Talk about individual accolades all you want, but fans want to win more than anything, and *every single advanced metric* shows that DeRozan would be helping his team more if he ceded more shots (unless he develops a 3ball) and played better defense. And the Raps will be hamstrung as a top 4 Eastern playoff team with little hopes for a title until it's addressed.. we're now in year 5 of 20ppg DeRozan and the best they've gotten to is game 6 of the ECF, and that was with DeRozan putting up some great individual #s in that series.

No that is not the reason. Here is the Raptors:
DeRozan
Lowry

Now here are the Warriors:
Kevin Durant
Stephen Curry
Draymond Green
Klay Thompson


THAT'S the difference in winning. A team of Lowry, DeRozan, Durant and Draymond would legit contend for a title even if DeRozan still took 1/4 of the shots and played porous defense. The Warriors and the Cavs simply have better talent.

As said above, DeRozan is 27th in the league in Potential Assists, ahead of Kyrie Irving, Mike Conley, Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and much much more. This is good enough if he had more talent on his team.

Again, DeRozan has deficiencies that stop him from being MVP-caliber superstar player. But to say that he shouldn't have even gotten 3rd team, or that no team can win with him in his current state is just wrong.

When there was a better guard on his own team...yeah I'll say he shouldn't have been all nba last year. I'll say it loudly, that was a huge mistake.

He only got it because he had a near-historical un-sustainable hot streak to start the season- when him and his backcourt mate came in prime-form from the Olympics with continuity on the team and most other players started slow or integrated new players. That and a relatively good record because of our bench when Lowry was out - which still featured some losses to bottom feeders cause that's what Raptors with Lowry/Derozan/Casey identity do.

[FNQ]

As said above, DeRozan is 27th in the league in Potential Assists, ahead of Kyrie Irving, Mike Conley, Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and much much more. This is good enough if he had more talent on his team.

Again, DeRozan has deficiencies that stop him from being MVP-caliber superstar player. But to say that he shouldn't have even gotten 3rd team, or that no team can win with him in his current state is just wrong.

Potential assists are not a valuable tool. They indicate ball-handling time more than anything. Any outcome - be it a shot, a turnover, or a foul - is all thats needed by the person who received the pass to create a potential assist. So that number to me doesnt have much meaning.

Yes, and DeRozan's usage rate is way lower than Kyrie's & Giannis', and he's almost tied with KD. Yet he still has ceded more shots than them. In the context of DeRozan, where people lambast him for playing ISO all the time and not moving the ball, of course it a valuable tool.

Well, all 3 are both better scorers and passers, so in either situation, its better than DeRozan doing anything with the ball. But while I understand what you are trying to say, I'm saying the potential assists thing does not effectively make your argument for you. It just means that DeRozan has the ball a lot, and it really doesnt say anything else. When you're essentially responsible for 21 shot attempts per game (17.5 + 7 FTA/2) AND have 10 potential assists per game, that means thats 31 plays per game where DeRozan is either taking a shot or being the one creating a possession termination.

Based on his efficiency in both passing and scoring, that seems like a glaringly obvious problem, doesn't it?

[Mikistan]

As said above, DeRozan is 27th in the league in Potential Assists, ahead of Kyrie Irving, Mike Conley, Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and much much more. This is good enough if he had more talent on his team.

Again, DeRozan has deficiencies that stop him from being MVP-caliber superstar player. But to say that he shouldn't have even gotten 3rd team, or that no team can win with him in his current state is just wrong.

Potential assists are not a valuable tool. They indicate ball-handling time more than anything. Any outcome - be it a shot, a turnover, or a foul - is all thats needed by the person who received the pass to create a potential assist. So that number to me doesnt have much meaning.

Yes, and DeRozan's usage rate is way lower than Kyrie's & Giannis', and he's almost tied with KD. Yet he still has ceded more shots than them. In the context of DeRozan, where people lambast him for playing ISO all the time and not moving the ball, of course it is a valuable tool.

If you watch a game of basketball - you will see WHY those potential assists aren't real assists.

He does not do a good job passing the ball into his shooter's pockets, the passes are routinely not timely, crisp or force the shooter to adjust and that doesn't help - other than meaning Demar doesn't have the missed FGA on his stats

[phanman]

Yes, in 4 years, I'd say its pretty bad, considering they took 2 inferior teams to 7 games, DeRozan had to play out of his mind, and the rest of the years are 1st round exits.

- he's not more valuable than advanced stats say because advanced stats are designed to pull value from things that fans cant process all at once. The only factor advanced stats can't reasonably measure is clutch, because every minute is the same to them. And while DeRozan is reasonably clutch, the perceived level of value from counting stats fans to advanced stats fans is vast.

- he absolutely is being a #1 with average level efficiency. THATS THE PROBLEM! Who wins when your #1 option is performing at an average level, and only on one side of the court? I'm saying the same thing - the Raptors will not get better until they put a legitimate #1 option in there, or give more looks to Lowry at the expense of DeRozan

- I have no doubt that DeRozan commands enough attention to take some of the onus off Lowry, and I'm saying that the Raptors should focus on that more. There's a similarly credible argument that DeRozan has been able to drive a lot more effectively with a sharpshooting PG creating more space than guys like Ben Uzoh and Jerryd Bayless. DeRozan wasn't able to score 20 ppg pre Lowry, so I'd say there's a mutual benefical thing going on there.

Bottom line is that at best, DeRozan needs to be a #2 on an offense. And because that is paired with really lousy defense, I think giving him the benefit of the doubt and calling him top 40 is closer to generous than it is insulting.

- In 4 years and they made the ECF, that's a pretty great trajectory after years of missing out. The first season was a wash considering they played the newly minted BK Super-team and 2015 they were embarrassed. 2016 was against 2 tough defensive teams that had the personnel to slow down both DeMar and Lowry. Also PG, Hill and Wade had themselves extremely productive post-season performance.

- I stated he is more valuable than advanced stats say because the team has been winning with him as the focal point. They've had HCA in every playoff showing. If you take his advanced numbers at its face value, you'd state they won in spite of him, which is just untrue. They have WON... that is what you are ignoring here. Sure its just regular season wins, but they managed to push past 2 rounds in 2016 and he was the catalyst last season against the Bucks both seasons ended by the Cavs.

- This season he has shown an improvement to his playmaking that by increasing his assist ratio and upping his assists to a career level. He was not a 20ppg scorer pre-Lowry because he had to share the spotlight with Bargs who was beloved and Rudy Gay prior to his trade.

In an ideal world yes he shouldn't be an #1 option, but he is and the team has been successful with him at the forefront. The Raptors have ranked 10th, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 3rd in ORTG with him co-leading the show. The struggle has been translating that to the post-season but that is struggle that the team has experience as a whole in regards to the stars, complimentary guys and even the coaching staff.

[KnightofHyrule]

Potential assists are not a valuable tool. They indicate ball-handling time more than anything. Any outcome - be it a shot, a turnover, or a foul - is all thats needed by the person who received the pass to create a potential assist. So that number to me doesnt have much meaning.

Yes, and DeRozan's usage rate is way lower than Kyrie's & Giannis', and he's almost tied with KD. Yet he still has ceded more shots than them. In the context of DeRozan, where people lambast him for playing ISO all the time and not moving the ball, of course it is a valuable tool.

If you watch a game of basketball - you will see WHY those potential assists aren't real assists.

He does not do a good job passing the ball into his shooter's pockets, the passes are routinely not timely, crisp or force the shooter to adjust and that doesn't help - other than meaning Demar doesn't have the missed FGA on his stats

No no no no no. People hate on DeRozan because he should "trust his teammates" and give up more shots. And now that i've shown proof that he's done it better than some other stars, now y'all are gonna hate on how "crisp" his passes are?

Dude had 8 assists last game. His team is 4th in the NBA in assists. I saw him make great passes to OG and Lowry during that game. Crisp, timely ones. He's done it all season. He ain't LeBron, but he's good enough.

Meanwhile Giannis is on a team with less wins, killing his teams' usage, avg less assists than DeRozan, can't shoot 3s....or at all, and people call him MVP caliber player. So what's the difference? Other than physical gifts, its consistency and defense. Two of the three problems I have outlined for DeRozan.

-Consistency
-Defense
-3 Point Shooting

That's it. That's all that stops him from being amazing. I don't wanna hear about ISO this and crisp pass that...that's not the problem.

[jimmy keys]

Harden's combination of vision, timing, change of pace, handles, and range at his size is just unlike anything else in the league right now. There's no shame in not being as good as Harden, he's a legit all-time great offensively.

This sums it up perfectly.

No disrespect to DeRozan, but he can't make that leap because he isn't Harden. Harden is a savant offensively.

[FNQ]

- In 4 years and they made the ECF, that's a pretty great trajectory after years of missing out. The first season was a wash considering they played the newly minted BK Super-team and 2015 they were embarrassed. 2016 was against 2 tough defensive teams that had the personnel to slow down both DeMar and Lowry. Also PG, Hill and Wade had themselves extremely productive post-season performance.

I dont think its a coincidence that their backcourts did well, because DeMar and Lowry are both pretty lousy defenders. But again, this is all proofs of why DeRozan as a #1 option is a bad idea.

- I stated he is more valuable than advanced stats say because the team has been winning with him as the focal point. They've had HCA in every playoff showing. If you take his advanced numbers at its face value, you'd state they won in spite of him, which is just untrue. They have WON... that is what you are ignoring here. Sure its just regular season wins, but they managed to push past 2 rounds in 2016 and he was the catalyst last season against the Bucks both seasons ended by the Cavs.

Ok, since I havent said it directly to you (but have in the thread): DeRozan is not a bad player. DeRozan, in fact, seems like an ideal #2, so long as you have sharpshooters at both the 1 and 3 (and maybe 4) who can make up for him being a strictly inside the arc player. Much like at C when it comes to REB/BLK, if you have a guy playing there who simply isn't any good at one of those things, it puts a strain on the team in other places to make up for it. As far as winning in spite of him.. no. RPM measures how good a player is in his role and while definitely not great at it, DeRozan still has produced + RPM last year and this year. But having your #1 option produce an RPM of +1 does say that he's overmatched in his role, and it definitely appears that way.

- This season he has shown an improvement to his playmaking that by increasing his assist ratio and upping his assists to a career level. He was not a 20ppg scorer pre-Lowry because he had to share the spotlight with Bargs who was beloved and Rudy Gay prior to his trade.

His efficiency also went up with Lowry, so if you are trying to convince me the benefit of the Lowry/DeRozan partnership is only one way, that won't work.

In an ideal world yes he shouldn't be an #1 option, but he is and the team has been successful with him at the forefront. The Raptors have ranked 10th, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 3rd in ORTG with him co-leading the show. The struggle has been translating that to the post-season but that is struggle that the team has experience as a whole in regards to the stars, complimentary guys and even the coaching staff.

They've been moderately successful in a top heavy conference, while not being at the top. They are the best of the next tier, and there doesnt seem to be any way out of that barring the Raptors acquiring someone who can complement Derozan (PG13 is the obvious candidate here).. and I think we agree more than not, but as I've said before - you have a guy who's elite inside the arc, and doesnt do very well at any other facet of the game. And when you're in the playoffs and defense tightens, a player like DeRozan, who's already against the wall efficiency-wise, has the difficulty level raised even higher. And that's not going to put the Raptors deep into the playoffs, currently. That's why I only have him as top 40 - lesser talents wouldn't require the amount of complementary pieces that DeRozan does to be effective on a contending team

[FNQ]

Yes, and DeRozan's usage rate is way lower than Kyrie's & Giannis', and he's almost tied with KD. Yet he still has ceded more shots than them. In the context of DeRozan, where people lambast him for playing ISO all the time and not moving the ball, of course it is a valuable tool.

If you watch a game of basketball - you will see WHY those potential assists aren't real assists.

He does not do a good job passing the ball into his shooter's pockets, the passes are routinely not timely, crisp or force the shooter to adjust and that doesn't help - other than meaning Demar doesn't have the missed FGA on his stats

No no no no no. People hate on DeRozan because he should "trust his teammates" and give up more shots. And now that i've shown proof that he's done it better than some other stars.

Again, thats not proof. It's proof that he passes to teammates and it terminates possessions, and its proof that he has the ball an obscene amount.

[binjumper]

- In 4 years and they made the ECF, that's a pretty great trajectory after years of missing out. The first season was a wash considering they played the newly minted BK Super-team and 2015 they were embarrassed. 2016 was against 2 tough defensive teams that had the personnel to slow down both DeMar and Lowry. Also PG, Hill and Wade had themselves extremely productive post-season performance.

I dont think its a coincidence that their backcourts did well, because DeMar and Lowry are both pretty lousy defenders. But again, this is all proofs of why DeRozan as a #1 option is a bad idea.

Ok man Lowry is not a lousy defender and you don't wanna go that path. Demar I'll accept.

[Mikistan]

If you watch a game of basketball - you will see WHY those potential assists aren't real assists.

He does not do a good job passing the ball into his shooter's pockets, the passes are routinely not timely, crisp or force the shooter to adjust and that doesn't help - other than meaning Demar doesn't have the missed FGA on his stats

No no no no no. People hate on DeRozan because he should "trust his teammates" and give up more shots. And now that i've shown proof that he's done it better than some other stars.

"No no no no no."
"People hate on Derozan"

Okay first you discredit everything said, and then create a strawman argument to make your argument stand up on legs?

If you argue consistency is an issue with Demar... then it clearly points out that his passes are not CONSISTENTLY crisp.
They are CONSISTENTLY crisp, last game, when he is playing the Suns, a team outright tanking with minimal talent.

Demar is and always will be a great regular season player - but he doesnt have the breadth of strength in his game to be worth the money he is being played in the playoffs, and his weaknesses are even further highlighted when every possession counts more in the PO.

[canada_dry]

Looking at some of the comments ud think this was 2015. He's improved in all the aspects people are berating him for.

What keeps him back of harden level effectiveness is great 3 point shooting ( he's improved of late tho, on a couple attempts a game too) and also harden is a great playmaker whereas derozan has improved, he's just "good" for a 2 guard, not absolutely elite like harden.

Beyond the 2 skills above, it's the shot selection. Harden ONLY shoots from 3 and in the paint, and while demar has been shooting less mid range and getting into the paint more, the mid range is really what he's elite at, n it's not a "in" thing in the current nba to be elite at.

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[sca]

And Draymond.. but the point is that if you are going to dominate the ball as much as DeRozan does, you have to either be efficient, a good shot creator, or usually some combination of the two. DeRozan, in terms of (co) primary ball-handlers, is below average at both of these, and that's why its a good idea to dial him down while dialing up Lowry. It doesnt have to be a significant change like cutting DeRozan's usage in half, but the Raps would probably be a better team if he was closer to 21% usage and Lowry was closer to 30%. All stats bare this out.

Lowry can't handle that level of usage without breaking down. He needs DeRozan beside him to take on that usage rate.

That's very valid, and I'd imagine thats what the Raptors have decided on at this point as well. It could very well be that Lowry is being maximized right now and pushing him any further would diminish his returns.. but that said, I'd still be pushing for it until the Raptors find that happy medium between the two where they are most effective. It could be happening right now, for all we know.

And if thats the case, the Raps would be wise to invest in someone who can take some of the scoring load off DeRozan's shoulders.. I dont think OG will be that guy. I did think Powell could be the guy, but he hasnt looked himself this season so far. If the Raptors could land someone like PG13 somehow, I think that would catapult them into the conversation with the Celtics and Cavs, as they'd be a much more balanced team with another sharpshooter flanking DeRozan.

BTW, thanks for providing info w/o being defensive about it, I appreciate when the convo can go like this

Talking regular season only, we're absolutely fine with DeRozan handling that big of a load. Frankly, I don't think we're far off from the C's, either. Keep in mind that we've had a far more difficult schedule. On the other hand, they beat us without their star player. They're also missing another star. It's fair to rank them above us right now, but I don't think we have reached our true potential as a team yet this season.

(The rest of this post is not aimed at you)

I'm not in the "DeRozan is a superstar and whoever thinks otherwise is definitely a hater" crowd, but sometimes one's got to look at the bigger picture and see if their opinion holds up with the data that's available to them. The post Rudy Gay-era Raptors have been 10th (2013-14), 4th (2014-15), 5th (2015-16), 6th (2016-17) and 3rd (2017-18) in ORtg, respectively. Many people have talked about DeRozan as a player who hurts his team's spacing and causes the defense to put more pressure on the three point shooters. That is simply untrue. He actually puts lots of pressure on the D himself because i. he can score from anywhere inside the arc, ii. he's a great driver (though not as good as Harden, obv.) iii. he's actually very good at drive-and-kick game.

[Johnny Bball]

An all around game?

Max contract guys can typically affect every single play on the court to impact the game.

Demar is typically a negative defensively, and a positive offensively (even if it takes 30 shots).

Except he’s not a max contract guy now or when he got the contract. But you already knew that when you posted this.

[KnightofHyrule]

If you watch a game of basketball - you will see WHY those potential assists aren't real assists.

He does not do a good job passing the ball into his shooter's pockets, the passes are routinely not timely, crisp or force the shooter to adjust and that doesn't help - other than meaning Demar doesn't have the missed FGA on his stats

No no no no no. People hate on DeRozan because he should "trust his teammates" and give up more shots. And now that i've shown proof that he's done it better than some other stars.

"No no no no no."
"People hate on Derozan"

Okay first you discredit everything said, and then create a strawman argument to make your argument stand up on legs?

If you argue consistency is an issue with Demar... then it clearly points out that his passes are not CONSISTENTLY crisp.
They are CONSISTENTLY crisp, last game, when he is playing the Suns, a team outright tanking with minimal talent.

Demar is and always will be a great regular season player - but he doesnt have the breadth of strength in his game to be worth the money he is being played in the playoffs, and his weaknesses are even further highlighted when every possession counts more in the PO.

I'm talking consistency in terms of playing energy. He looks lethargic out there at times....mentally defeated at the first sign of adversity.

Alright so this is where we start getting into the truth about playoff DeMar DeRozan. Last year, when the Raptors where down 2-1 against Milwaukee because DeRozan was trash, here is how the rest of the series played out.

Game 4, in Milwaukee, DeRozan puts up 33pts, 9rebs, 5ast, 4stls on 54.5% shooting. He was a game high +16.
Game 5, in Toronto, DeRozan puts up 18 points, 3reb, 6ast on 50% shooting. +18 in 33 minutes of a blow out game.
Game 6, in Milwaukee, DeRozan puts up 32 pts, 4reb, 3ast, 5stls on 50% shooting. +6 was 2nd only to Lowry's +8.

Essentially, as the series went on, DeRozan learned to adapt to Milwaukee's defensive schemes. Because he adapted, he became even better than he was in the regular season. He ended some of Milwaukee's runs singlehandedly.

The goal of a playoff series is to win 4 games before the other team. So you can talk about "breadth of strength" and "weakness" and blah blah blah....that's a valid statement, but a grossly incomplete one. In reality DeRozan dismantled the Bucks in three straight games and closed them out. In Games 4 and 6, on the road, DeRozan averaged 32.5pts, 6.5reb, 4ast, and 4.5stls, and 2nd in +/- behind Lowry. THAT IS MAX MONEY PLAY. So for all the hate playoff DeRozan gets, people should do more that just watch Game 1.

As the series progressed he got more consistent, and this is the story of almost every DeRozan playoff series. I'm sure as hell glad it ain't the other way around.