Has Boston's slide back to average defence already begun?

[Double Helix]

People focus on net rating because statistically it's proven to be a better barometer of future success than just looking at wins and losses.

The Celtics defensive rating was looking Ben Wallace Pistons-era strong as late as November 22nd. Some questioned that identity and suggested it likely wasn't sustainable for a team with Kyrie Irving on it playing 36 minutes per game. Real Plus Minus at the time was a friend of Irving's and Irving fans everywhere were seemingly citing it as proof that Kyrie's days of being labelled a suspect defender were long gone.

Well, here is their defensive rating over their past 10 games. It's not bad. It's okay. It's closer to average. And before anyone starts thinking that this decline in defence has occured as a result of the Celtics facing powerhouse teams, have a look at the 10 teams included:

Atlanta
Dallas
Orlando
Miami
Indiana
Detroit
Philadelphia
Phoenix
Milwaukee
Dallas

When you looked at their defensive metrics closer though during that earlier time period you could see that where they were being truly elite defensively was stopping transition. They were one of the best teams in basketball doing that but having a #1 league-wide defence propped up largely by that seemed questionable for sustainability. There wasn't much else you could see there in the data that impressed beyond that attribute. It's not terribly surprising, then, that's also moved closer to the middle over this same 10 game span.

Now, to their credit the Celtics have dramatically improved their offensive rating over this same timer period. Their new identity as an 8th ranked offence with a 12-14 ranked defence (14th over past 5 games) seems closer to an identity that they may be able to sustain and also closer to an offensive/defensive identity that some earlier doubters thought they'd regress closer to becoming.

This defensive slide also coincides with Kyrie Irving's individual DRPM sliding closer to his career norms. On the year he's now back to being the 57th ranked PG via DRPM.

Kyrie was ranked 69th last year for frame of reference.

Make no mistake about it though. The Boston Celtics new identity of the past 10 games is still that of a very strong team. Similar to others over that span, they're 8-2. However, back to net rating and identity. A net rating like this with a top 10 offence and average defence is still functioning well and playing with the ingredients of a top 4 seed in the East. And with the early wins they racked up they're still probably on pace to exceed 60 wins but the regression from elite defence to average has begun and with that goes any hope of somehow maintaining the best defence in the league while also tweaking their offence into the top 10. A recipe, that if they'd been able to achieve, had the ingredients necessary to truly surprise in the NBA playoffs. If your team is league best at either offence or defence, and top 10 in the other area, that's a recipe that should have the whole league on notice. That is looking less likely these days.

Agree? Disagree? Share your thoughts.

[PierceFan4ever]

You want a cookie? Celtics are still winning games. Like you said the Celtics offense has improved big time over that span so it's natural for them to slide on defense at times but if you watch the games, you'll notice the Celtics turn it up on defense when needed to. Celtics defense will be fine, maybe not at the historic level numbers wise suggested early on but I'm happy the offense improving by a lot the last 10 games.

[Karate Diop]

All unbiased fans could see this coming from a mile away, most teams who start out on fire have a regression back to the mean at some point.

Legitimate contenders pace themselves so as to not burn out by season's end.

[Double Helix]

You want a cookie? Celtics are still winning games. Like you said the Celtics offense has improved big time over that span so it's natural for them to slide on defense at times but if you watch the games, you'll notice the Celtics turn it up on defense when needed to. Celtics defense will be fine, maybe not at the historic level numbers wise suggested early on but I'm happy the offense improving by a lot the last 10 games.

Do I want a cookie? I'm giving you an information cookie. Enjoy it.

The numbers are the numbers and the general board is a place where we talk about and analyze some of the strongest, and weakest teams in the league and the trends observed within them. Don't take it personal. Feel fortunate that your team is strong enough, and had a unique attribute (#1 defence) worthy of exploration and analysis.

[RaptorsLife]

Celtics are great team. But that defense was not gonna last. The offense is picking up. It should balance out

[Double Helix]

Celtics are great team. But that defense was not gonna last. The offense is picking up. It should balance out

That's the biggest focus of the thread. Looking closer at that defence. I shared that the Celtics are still probably on pace for a 60 win season based on their earlier win totals even if this new team identity of the past 10 games is closer to who'll they'll be the rest of the way, and even if Kyrie's slide defensively continues to previous career norms.

[PierceFan4ever]

You want a cookie? Celtics are still winning games. Like you said the Celtics offense has improved big time over that span so it's natural for them to slide on defense at times but if you watch the games, you'll notice the Celtics turn it up on defense when needed to. Celtics defense will be fine, maybe not at the historic level numbers wise suggested early on but I'm happy the offense improving by a lot the last 10 games.

Do I want a cookie? I'm giving you an information cookie. Enjoy it.

The numbers are the numbers and the general board is a place where we talk about and analyze some of the strongest, and weakest teams in the league and the trends observed within them. Don't take it personal. Feel fortunate that your team is strong enough, and had a unique attribute (#1 defence) worthy of exploration and analysis.

Yeah you did a good job with the information you provided but I don't think anyone believed the Celtics were going to keep it up at a historic level. Could they be #1 in defensive rating? Sure, but not at the historic level they were going at. A lot of it had to do with the Celtics offense being very bad early on without adjusting so they relied heavily on defense. Now that the offense is going great, you should expect to see the defensive numbers slide a bit. At the end of the day, the defensive rating is still 1 by a good 3 points over the Warriors. If the Celtics defense slides and the Celtics lose games because of it, then I would worry about it. It's not like they were going to play great defense for every stretch of the long 82 game season, I say wait on it a bit.

[Double Helix]

You want a cookie? Celtics are still winning games. Like you said the Celtics offense has improved big time over that span so it's natural for them to slide on defense at times but if you watch the games, you'll notice the Celtics turn it up on defense when needed to. Celtics defense will be fine, maybe not at the historic level numbers wise suggested early on but I'm happy the offense improving by a lot the last 10 games.

Do I want a cookie? I'm giving you an information cookie. Enjoy it.

The numbers are the numbers and the general board is a place where we talk about and analyze some of the strongest, and weakest teams in the league and the trends observed within them. Don't take it personal. Feel fortunate that your team is strong enough, and had a unique attribute (#1 defence) worthy of exploration and analysis.

Yeah you did a good job with the information you provided but I don't think anyone believed the Celtics were going to keep it up at a historic level. Could they be #1 in defensive rating? Sure, but not at the historic level they were going at. A lot of it had to do with the Celtics offense being very bad early on without adjusting so they relied heavily on defense. Now that the offense is going great, you should expect to see the defensive numbers slide a bit. At the end of the day, the defensive rating is still 1 by a good 3 points over the Warriors. If the Celtics defense slides and the Celtics lose games because of it, then I would worry about it. It's not like they were going to play great defense for every stretch of the long 82 game season, I say wait on it a bit.

All fair.

It's definitely something for NBA fans to keep their eye on.

It's just a trendline observed with enough signs, including Kyrie's regression at the point of attack defensively, that makes it hard to imagine the defence becoming #1 again now that other teams are increasing their defensive effort up to levels that Boston flew out of the gate at. It was so historic to begin with that there's still plenty of data from that early start to keep them in the top 5 until well after the all star break on the season... even if it turns out that most of the newer data by that point in time ends up showing them closer to the middle of the pack defensively from late November through that point of time.

I suspect all of the top 5 teams in each conference will continue to increase their defensive effort levels up as this season goes on and equally suspect that many were coasting a little too much on that end earlier in the year. Will be interesting to see where they all end up in post-all star break comparisons.

[juju14]

Hmmm their is 26 games played not 10. They are still the number 1 rated team on defense in the nba.

[OzCastiel]

Wow, are you telling me that a brand new team with 2 of their better defenders in and out of the lineup can't keep up with a 2004 pistons team for every random stupid 10 game stretch??? Shocker

[RaptorsLife]

Celtics are great team. But that defense was not gonna last. The offense is picking up. It should balance out

That's the biggest focus of the thread. Looking closer at that defence. I shared that the Celtics are still probably on pace for a 60 win season based on their earlier win totals even if this new team identity of the past 10 games is closer to who'll they'll be the rest of the way, and even if Kyrie's slide defensively continues to previous career norms.

I don't think it's a thread hating on Celtics. If people actually read the well written op. The defense is slipping and offense gaining

60 win team sure but that elite defense that people thought was gonna stop lebron doesn't exist anymore

[BHF]

I still think Toronto is better than Boston and would beat them in a playoff series easily, Boston is overrated.

[Vee-Rex]

I still think Toronto is better than Boston and would beat them in a playoff series easily, Boston is overrated.

Probably not a good idea to change the topic to that.

[Double Helix]

I still think Toronto is better than Boston and would beat them in a playoff series easily, Boston is overrated.

Probably not a good idea to change the topic to that.

Agreed.

Not about any one team versus the Celtics. More about wondering if this new identity over the past 10 games or so is who the Celtics really are and will be the rest of the way?

[Dave_From_NB]

It's always fun to see how long a thread that has absolutely nothing to do with the Raptors goes before a Raptors fan attempts to derail it into a discussion about the Raptors.

[Patches Perry]

You want a cookie?

Yes. Cookies or GTFO.

[Baller1234a]

I believe we have seen they way the Celtics can play defense if they go full throttle. I also believe we will see a reappearance of that defense in the PO where everyone goes a 100%

[r0drig0lac]

You want a cookie? Celtics are still winning games. Like you said the Celtics offense has improved big time over that span so it's natural for them to slide on defense at times but if you watch the games, you'll notice the Celtics turn it up on defense when needed to. Celtics defense will be fine, maybe not at the historic level numbers wise suggested early on but I'm happy the offense improving by a lot the last 10 games.

wtf

[Amare_1_Knicks]

You want a cookie? Celtics are still winning games. Like you said the Celtics offense has improved big time over that span so it's natural for them to slide on defense at times but if you watch the games, you'll notice the Celtics turn it up on defense when needed to. Celtics defense will be fine, maybe not at the historic level numbers wise suggested early on but I'm happy the offense improving by a lot the last 10 games.

You sound super sensitive. There’s no need for all of that. There was a ton of objective information in his post.

[Illmatic12]

It's always fun to see how long a thread that has absolutely nothing to do with the Raptors goes before a Raptors fan attempts to derail it into a discussion about the Raptors.

The op was actually informative but lol .. so true