Has Boston's slide back to average defence already begun?

[chrisab123]

Yup. Celtics will fall back into the lottery shortly. 9th seed at best!

[OkcSinceSGA]

This is basically a regression to the mean. They aren't going to continue playing 04 Pistons type defense for a full season with the roster they have assembled. They were OVERACHIEVING by quite a bit on that end and are falling back down to earth. That being said, they are one of maybe 3-4 teams that is balanced enough to be a top 10 offense AND defense for the next few years, which usually means a very deep playoff run.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Hard to see them slip out of the top 5 now that they've established themselves. I think they just bumped the pace to facilitate more offense and that's led to a compromise in their half court D. That's my rough guess. I mean, we knew that Kyrie wasn't just going to be able to flip a switch and become a great defender and that his early success was most likely just an aberration.

If I had to bet, I'd say the Spurs will be the best defensive team in the league this year. Best coach, loads of versatility, and they'll be getting back their DPOY candidate soon.

[Impuniti]

I believe we have seen they way the Celtics can play defense if they go full throttle. I also believe we will see a reappearance of that defense in the PO where everyone goes a 100%

That's a nice way of looking at it. Most people are going to look at a team that was greatly overperforming well above their means defensively and are now beginning to even out into what they're capable of. But you know.. good luck expecting them to go to Pistons 04 defense mode right when the playoffs hit.

[Daddy 801]

I was a huge proponent that the Celts defense would not be good. That it would take time for Kyrie to integrate, etc. I was wrong. I still think I am wrong even if the defense rating is average.

What I think is happening.....

I think they are winning without having to kill themselves on defense. I have not looked at their fourth quarter defense, but I suspect that the stats show a team that plays average, or below average defense for three quarters, and then they turn up the defense in the fourth quarter. If stats show that, then I think my assumption they just aren't playing as hard the first three quarters would be proven. I am not sure about this, but it is what I suspect. And this is common amongst really good teams. Wait until the fourth, put the clamps down, and beat your opponent.

[Takingbaconback]

They aren't average on defense. They got three elite defensive guards who can score in Brown, Smart, and Rozier. The game today favors great defensive rotation over individual defense. Boston is elite on defense and this will show especially in the playoffs where they get to focus on one opponent at a time.

[dukes_wild]

Yeah they are slowly regressing. They will have that moment in the year though that really shows they have been overrated though. I'm talking like a lose 9 out of 10 games stretch

[LobCityRondo2KG]

Yeah they are slowly regressing. They will have that moment in the year though that really shows they have been overrated though. I'm talking like a lose 9 out of 10 games stretch

Right

[Patsfan1081]

Yeah they are slowly regressing. They will have that moment in the year though that really shows they have been overrated though. I'm talking like a lose 9 out of 10 games stretch

Wow, wasn't really expecting all these Raptor fans to show and up and declare them extremely overated Brings me back to last year's Vegas predictions thread . I would wait until at least Boston's defense isn't still first in the league befor making this thread. I admit I don't think Boston's defense is as good as its rating, Morris's return didn't seem to help on that side of the ball, but they're still winning and playing much better defensively that predicted.

[Fantaxp7]

Yeah they are slowly regressing. They will have that moment in the year though that really shows they have been overrated though. I'm talking like a lose 9 out of 10 games stretch

Right

Didn't we beat them without Kyrie?

[dukes_wild]

Yeah they are slowly regressing. They will have that moment in the year though that really shows they have been overrated though. I'm talking like a lose 9 out of 10 games stretch

Right

Didn't we beat them without Kyrie?

True one game is a huge sample size. It's not like the Raptors played their 2nd worst game of the season in that game.

[cpower]

i am very impressed with Celtics's defense. Horford and young players are doing a great job so far in the season!

[Gant]

Only a tiny amount of regression led to the defensive drop off. Here are the more important reasons:

Factor #1) Most of it's been due to trying to integrate Morris into the rotation, which changed Baynes' role, which in turn changed Horford's defensive role. It also changed the rotation itself. Plus it led to a dip in defensive rebounding.

Factor #2) Jaylen Brown lost his close friend, has had a few ailments, and has missed some games in body and spirit since.


Not surprisingly, Brad Stevens seems to have recognized the problem, and once again mostly starts Baynes.

The Celtics were never going to be the greatest defensive team of all time, but they should stay near the top of the league in that category. Meanwhile their offense keeps improving as Morris now generally fills the bench scorer role, and the players' familiarity is growing.

[LBJKB24MJ23]

Yeah they are slowly regressing. They will have that moment in the year though that really shows they have been overrated though. I'm talking like a lose 9 out of 10 games stretch

Right

i read his post with sarcasm. come on now. LOL

[Dave_From_NB]

Yeah they are slowly regressing. They will have that moment in the year though that really shows they have been overrated though. I'm talking like a lose 9 out of 10 games stretch

Right

Didn't we beat them without Kyrie?

Gordon and Kyrie.

[Boarder Patrol]

If a team is playing above their potential, the regression will usually be opposite that and far below their potential until it settles somewhere in the middle (same thing reversed for teams playing below their potential). So if the Celtics regression period is a 14th-ranked D, they're probably somewhere in the 6th-8th best defense range. If you look at their roster construction (Smart, Brown, Tatum, Horford, Baynes, etc.) I think that makes decent sense.

[SmartWentCrazy]

It’s all likely just three point shooting noise— both offensively and defensively.

They shot 34% from 3 for the first 16 games and 42% from 3 the last 10. They allowed 33% from 3 the first 16 games and 36% the last 10.

Small samples (10 and 16 games) are heavily subject to luck/noise. It’s better to focus on the season as a whole, IMO.

[Mister Ze]

Right

Didn't we beat them without Kyrie?

Gordon and Kyrie.

Wow really I thought Gordon played that game?

[Tai]

I do appreciate the homework you did on this. One thing that encourages me is the Celtics doing much much better offensively, cause part of the narrative early on in the season was "What happens if the offense doesn't get better and the defense inevitably drops off?"

Ultimately, they should be fine in the playoffs. The reality is, the roster's much better than the one that went to the ECF last season and the supposed starting lineup of Irving/Brown/Tatum/Horford/Baynes is bigger than IT/Bradley/Crowder/Johnson/Horford. And frankly, even the bench is formidable compared to last season; the only thing is they don't have a true backup center if Baynes isn't off the bench. But as we were told last season, it's not about depth in the playoffs, right?

[LobCityRondo2KG]

Didn't we beat them without Kyrie?

Gordon and Kyrie.

Wow really I thought Gordon played that game?