Mikistan wrote:beanbag wrote:This thread is mad problematic. Why do you know who these children are?
now this is in an interesting discussion topic
on, the one hand, these scouts and sport industry in general as a profession turns children into money - either as players cultivated for earning potential or children hooked as fans of a sport who will spend money and time their entire lives to support a likely broken system. even the purity of competition in the olympics is a sham
on the other hand, someone putting names of clearly basketball-pursuing teens on the internet may actually increase the chances of them getting noticed -- it may be that he saw them play at various torunaments in the GTA area, that sell tickets for people who want to watch -- all his analysis is strictly potential and basketball focused from what i read -
but, there is also child privacy at stake...
hmmm
This is taken from my final post on the future of young Canadians, but is very relevant to this discussion:
I think that there are actually two main claims here: the first is that this is somehow morally wrong, perhaps because it somehow damages young players or maybe because we should just not be talking about kids in any way. The second is that this is just futile. For kids under a certain age, who have not even yet finished their physical development, any prediction is just irresponsible and almost surely due to fail. So let's examine these two claims more closely:
1. This is damaging young souls. The argument as I understand it is that simply by writing on these kids and trying to assess their future chances I might somehow be hurting them. I think this is the more serious charge, but also the one that I really do not find to be valid. First, it’s important to clarify that this field is indeed open to abuse. In particular, the prep-school business (in all sports) is a hotbed of selling kids unrealistic dreams and making them (their parents) pay exorbitant amounts to private institutions, despite often knowing fully well that these kids do not even have enough potential to earn a college scholarship. I agree that this is quite despicable and unfortunate.
But this is beside the point I think. For better or worse, we are often fascinated with young prodigies. And this is not only true in sports. It is also the case in science, where young inventors or math geniuses are celebrated by adults. And it’s certainly true in the arts and music, where a very young singer or pianist might be heralded as the next big thing. This has always been the case (Mozart), but modern media has certainly given it more salience.
Since that’s the case, many of these kids are already getting quite a bit of media coverage, including from mainstream media. Elijah Fisher, for example, who I’ll mention below, has already had whole articles written about him more than a year ago, when he was only 12, including in mainstream Canadian media such as CBC and the National Post. Is this harmful? Perhaps. I could certainly see the argument for why it would be, making a young kid lose focus/hunger and think he’s already achieved. But I’d like better evidence that this is actually what prevents great talents from reaching their potential. I could also see it working the other way around: Kids who do not have great opportunities are spotted by Basketball Canada or (social) media, and consequently are given opportunities like a full tuition and a chance to work out in great facilities and with the best coaches. Arguably, some great talents were untapped because no one ever discovered them and they kept playing under mediocre coaches and against inadequate competition, not having to really work on their skills and improve.
In any case, it would take quite a bit of hubris on my part to think that by writing on any of these young players here in a fans' forum I somehow manage to injure their soft souls or ruin their chances for success by irrevocably stroking their ego and sending them on the path to self-destruction. If anything, I would argue that it's the opposite: The kids who no one writes about are those who feel slighted.
2. There is just no way of predicting anything at this age. I actually have much more sympathy for this claim and quite understand the unease. Anyone who’s ever followed young prodigies knows that the overwhelming majority do not make it to the NBA. Many do not even become professionals for various reasons. On the other hand, there are probably quite a few players who no one pays much attention to at a young age, but eventually end up being better than the ones who are touted as the next big thing. At these ages, so much can happen in terms of physical and mental development, as well as things like injuries and getting into trouble with the law. So naturally, any predictions must be extremely careful.
But there are a couple of things that I want to mention here. First, it’s a bit hard to talk about the future without mentioning any names. If I just said that I think Canada basketball has a great future, perhaps even better than the present, but brought no evidence for that, then that's just empty talk. So I try to still mention a few names, just to show what I’m talking about and where things might be going.
Second, I'm really trying to focus on long-term potential here. There are kids who score 40 points in games now because they are very mature physically or mentally and manage to overpower the competition. But some of them are clearly not very athletic. Others are very dominant but are only about 5'2 or 5'3. So even if they end up growing to 6'0 we know that the chances they will become dominant pros are very low. For every Chris Paul or Isiah Thomas, there are thousands of kids with great talent, but just not enough to get them to the pros.
This is also where the hype around basketball prodigies like Seventh Woods, Jashaun Agosto, or Julian Newman was misplaced. These guys ended up at 6’1, 5’11 and 5’7 respectively, as far as I know. And they all clearly had serious physical limitations (mainly height) that often could already be projected at the young age at which they were touted as the next big thing. This is the difference between being a YouTube sensation and actually trying to seriously project potential. The former tend to be quick guards with a sick handle, who often reach physical maturity early on, but their physical limitations are glaring almost from the start (although some just stop growing at a young age).
Now, in comparison, take the three players I mentioned from the class of 2021. All of them are wings with a very developing skillset. None is currently overly dominant on his team or showcases a phenomenal handle. But they are all already at least 6’7 and likely to be 6’9 or 6’10. And they are all very good athletes, long, and mobile. This is truly what makes one an NBA potential (along with a host of other things of course). And while nothing is guaranteed, if you have a good number of prospects of this type, you might hope that at least a few of them are able to eventually make the jump to the next level.
Finally, I should say that I'm not necessarily only focusing on the NBA. These are kids who are likely to become members of the U16 and U18 national teams over the next few years. And eventually, some of them will hopefully also be able to contribute to the national team, even if they do not crack the NBA. What I’m hoping for is a wide base of both NBA and other high-level professionals, which will give us a really solid roster.