Has Boston's slide back to average defence already begun?

[Higgs Boston]

There isn't a thread about Celtics that doesn't include: overrated, overachieved, Raptors are better, Raptors would beat them in PO.

It's like read the big and soft version of raptors board.

[Impuniti]

There isn't a thread about Celtics that doesn't include: overrated, overachieved, Raptors are better, Raptors would beat them in PO.

It's like read the big and soft version of raptors board.

Yeah, I really hope the two play each other in the playoffs. While the rest of the board

[zimpy27]

Good post OP.

I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle. I think they can play great defense if they choose and now they are working on playing great offense.

What's taken for granted is that all the top teams will go through stretches where they use the regular season to hone one side of the floor. Win with offense some stretches, win with defense other stretches. That coincides with coaching and training emphasis at the time. Ultimately it all comes together in the playoffs.

Teams that do this are Cavs, Boston, Houston and GSW. I'd say the only top team that doesn't are the Spurs, which I think is a cultural thing there.

[homecourtloss]

People focus on net rating because statistically it's proven to be a better barometer of future success than just looking at wins and losses.

The Celtics defensive rating was looking Ben Wallace Pistons-era strong as late as November 22nd. Some questioned that identity and suggested it likely wasn't sustainable for a team with Kyrie Irving on it playing 36 minutes per game. Real Plus Minus at the time was a friend of Irving's and Irving fans everywhere were seemingly citing it as proof that Kyrie's days of being labelled a suspect defender were long gone.

Well, here is their defensive rating over their past 10 games. It's not bad. It's okay. It's closer to average. And before anyone starts thinking that this decline in defence has occured as a result of the Celtics facing powerhouse teams, have a look at the 10 teams included:

Atlanta
Dallas
Orlando
Miami
Indiana
Detroit
Philadelphia
Phoenix
Milwaukee
Dallas

When you looked at their defensive metrics closer though during that earlier time period you could see that where they were being truly elite defensively was stopping transition. They were one of the best teams in basketball doing that but having a #1 league-wide defence propped up largely by that seemed questionable for sustainability. There wasn't much else you could see there in the data that impressed beyond that attribute. It's not terribly surprising, then, that's also moved closer to the middle over this same 10 game span.

Now, to their credit the Celtics have dramatically improved their offensive rating over this same timer period. Their new identity as an 8th ranked offence with a 12-14 ranked defence (14th over past 5 games) seems closer to an identity that they may be able to sustain and also closer to an offensive/defensive identity that some earlier doubters thought they'd regress closer to becoming.

This defensive slide also coincides with Kyrie Irving's individual DRPM sliding closer to his career norms. On the year he's now back to being the 57th ranked PG via DRPM.

Kyrie was ranked 69th last year for frame of reference.

Make no mistake about it though. The Boston Celtics new identity of the past 10 games is still that of a very strong team. Similar to others over that span, they're 8-2. However, back to net rating and identity. A net rating like this with a top 10 offence and average defence is still functioning well and playing with the ingredients of a top 4 seed in the East. And with the early wins they racked up they're still probably on pace to exceed 60 wins but the regression from elite defence to average has begun and with that goes any hope of somehow maintaining the best defence in the league while also tweaking their offence into the top 10. A recipe, that if they'd been able to achieve, had the ingredients necessary to truly surprise in the NBA playoffs. If your team is league best at either offence or defence, and top 10 in the other area, that's a recipe that should have the whole league on notice. That is looking less likely these days.

Agree? Disagree? Share your thoughts.

Great post. Their defense is still ultra elite when Kyrie is off the floor.

[711takeover]

People focus on net rating because statistically it's proven to be a better barometer of future success than just looking at wins and losses.

The Celtics defensive rating was looking Ben Wallace Pistons-era strong as late as November 22nd. Some questioned that identity and suggested it likely wasn't sustainable for a team with Kyrie Irving on it playing 36 minutes per game. Real Plus Minus at the time was a friend of Irving's and Irving fans everywhere were seemingly citing it as proof that Kyrie's days of being labelled a suspect defender were long gone.

Well, here is their defensive rating over their past 10 games. It's not bad. It's okay. It's closer to average. And before anyone starts thinking that this decline in defence has occured as a result of the Celtics facing powerhouse teams, have a look at the 10 teams included:

Atlanta
Dallas
Orlando
Miami
Indiana
Detroit
Philadelphia
Phoenix
Milwaukee
Dallas

When you looked at their defensive metrics closer though during that earlier time period you could see that where they were being truly elite defensively was stopping transition. They were one of the best teams in basketball doing that but having a #1 league-wide defence propped up largely by that seemed questionable for sustainability. There wasn't much else you could see there in the data that impressed beyond that attribute. It's not terribly surprising, then, that's also moved closer to the middle over this same 10 game span.

Now, to their credit the Celtics have dramatically improved their offensive rating over this same timer period. Their new identity as an 8th ranked offence with a 12-14 ranked defence (14th over past 5 games) seems closer to an identity that they may be able to sustain and also closer to an offensive/defensive identity that some earlier doubters thought they'd regress closer to becoming.

This defensive slide also coincides with Kyrie Irving's individual DRPM sliding closer to his career norms. On the year he's now back to being the 57th ranked PG via DRPM.

Kyrie was ranked 69th last year for frame of reference.

Make no mistake about it though. The Boston Celtics new identity of the past 10 games is still that of a very strong team. Similar to others over that span, they're 8-2. However, back to net rating and identity. A net rating like this with a top 10 offence and average defence is still functioning well and playing with the ingredients of a top 4 seed in the East. And with the early wins they racked up they're still probably on pace to exceed 60 wins but the regression from elite defence to average has begun and with that goes any hope of somehow maintaining the best defence in the league while also tweaking their offence into the top 10. A recipe, that if they'd been able to achieve, had the ingredients necessary to truly surprise in the NBA playoffs. If your team is league best at either offence or defence, and top 10 in the other area, that's a recipe that should have the whole league on notice. That is looking less likely these days.

Agree? Disagree? Share your thoughts.

I'm really just amused at how a Raptors fan took this much time to worry about the Celtics and hope that other people on the GB also think the Celtics are getting worse lol

[711takeover]

There isn't a thread about Celtics that doesn't include: overrated, overachieved, Raptors are better, Raptors would beat them in PO.

It's like read the big and soft version of raptors board.

It's hilarious. I knew the second I opened the thread that a Raptors fan made it

[Double Helix]

People focus on net rating because statistically it's proven to be a better barometer of future success than just looking at wins and losses.

The Celtics defensive rating was looking Ben Wallace Pistons-era strong as late as November 22nd. Some questioned that identity and suggested it likely wasn't sustainable for a team with Kyrie Irving on it playing 36 minutes per game. Real Plus Minus at the time was a friend of Irving's and Irving fans everywhere were seemingly citing it as proof that Kyrie's days of being labelled a suspect defender were long gone.

Well, here is their defensive rating over their past 10 games. It's not bad. It's okay. It's closer to average. And before anyone starts thinking that this decline in defence has occured as a result of the Celtics facing powerhouse teams, have a look at the 10 teams included:

Atlanta
Dallas
Orlando
Miami
Indiana
Detroit
Philadelphia
Phoenix
Milwaukee
Dallas

When you looked at their defensive metrics closer though during that earlier time period you could see that where they were being truly elite defensively was stopping transition. They were one of the best teams in basketball doing that but having a #1 league-wide defence propped up largely by that seemed questionable for sustainability. There wasn't much else you could see there in the data that impressed beyond that attribute. It's not terribly surprising, then, that's also moved closer to the middle over this same 10 game span.

Now, to their credit the Celtics have dramatically improved their offensive rating over this same timer period. Their new identity as an 8th ranked offence with a 12-14 ranked defence (14th over past 5 games) seems closer to an identity that they may be able to sustain and also closer to an offensive/defensive identity that some earlier doubters thought they'd regress closer to becoming.

This defensive slide also coincides with Kyrie Irving's individual DRPM sliding closer to his career norms. On the year he's now back to being the 57th ranked PG via DRPM.

Kyrie was ranked 69th last year for frame of reference.

Make no mistake about it though. The Boston Celtics new identity of the past 10 games is still that of a very strong team. Similar to others over that span, they're 8-2. However, back to net rating and identity. A net rating like this with a top 10 offence and average defence is still functioning well and playing with the ingredients of a top 4 seed in the East. And with the early wins they racked up they're still probably on pace to exceed 60 wins but the regression from elite defence to average has begun and with that goes any hope of somehow maintaining the best defence in the league while also tweaking their offence into the top 10. A recipe, that if they'd been able to achieve, had the ingredients necessary to truly surprise in the NBA playoffs. If your team is league best at either offence or defence, and top 10 in the other area, that's a recipe that should have the whole league on notice. That is looking less likely these days.

Agree? Disagree? Share your thoughts.

I'm really just amused at how a Raptors fan took this much time to worry about the Celtics and hope that other people on the GB also think the Celtics are getting worse lol

When anyone attempts to dismiss an assertion simply because of where the poster is from, rather than telling them they’re definitely wrong and backing that up with new facts, it might as well be an admission that the person making the assertion might be onto something. So, thank you. Fortunately there have been plenty of fans from Boston more interested in talking about these observations honestly than outright dismissals.

Don’t feel too special though. This same Raptors fan also attempted to explore the Charlotte Hornets in depth yesterday but having been unable to notice a trend just assumed it wiser to open that question up to the entire board. That discussion revealed some interesting insight into the Hornets.

I’m interested in how teams are working best or aren’t and why. I tend to take a quick look at their boards first to see if they have anything I can read that is exploring what I’m seeing or wondering first. I didn’t see anything about the Celtics defensive slide as a topic on the Celtics board.

[red96]

You want a cookie? Celtics are still winning games. Like you said the Celtics offense has improved big time over that span so it's natural for them to slide on defense at times but if you watch the games, you'll notice the Celtics turn it up on defense when needed to. Celtics defense will be fine, maybe not at the historic level numbers wise suggested early on but I'm happy the offense improving by a lot the last 10 games.

Why so touchy? The man started a thread with facts and an reasonably unbiased topic. Not much more you could ask for on realgm.

[AdagioPace]

You want a cookie? Celtics are still winning games. Like you said the Celtics offense has improved big time over that span so it's natural for them to slide on defense at times but if you watch the games, you'll notice the Celtics turn it up on defense when needed to. Celtics defense will be fine, maybe not at the historic level numbers wise suggested early on but I'm happy the offense improving by a lot the last 10 games.

Why so touchy? The man started a thread with facts and an reasonably unbiased topic. Not much more you could ask for on realgm.

I'm sure OP has written all that in good faith but you know how raptors and celtics fans are.
There's always a hidden blow somewhere between them, the same fact that a RAptors fan,instinctively,even without the supervision of his conscience,took interest in underlining a CEltics' weakness is fishy Am I wrong Raptors and CEltics fans?

[Factorq]

It's more than likely that instead of spending energy on defense, they are now spending more energy on offense. There were periods when the Celtics were 20th in offensive rating, now they are 9th. This team isn't talented enough to have an all-time great defense while also maintaining a top 10 offense.

[r0drig0lac]

Good post OP.

I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle. I think they can play great defense if they choose and now they are working on playing great offense.

What's taken for granted is that all the top teams will go through stretches where they use the regular season to hone one side of the floor. Win with offense some stretches, win with defense other stretches. That coincides with coaching and training emphasis at the time. Ultimately it all comes together in the playoffs.

Teams that do this are Cavs, Boston, Houston and GSW. I'd say the only top team that doesn't are the Spurs, which I think is a cultural thing there.

really?

[juju14]

It's more than likely that instead of spending energy on defense, they are now spending more energy on offense. There were periods when the Celtics were 20th in offensive rating, now they are 9th. This team isn't talented enough to have an all-time great defense while also maintaining a top 10 offense.

Not really, their defense is elite when Kyrie is off the floor.

[GreenBloodedC]

I don't even know where Raps fans get their entitlement. Their team has proven nothing and they already peaked with Derozan and Lowry as their lead guys. But their fans keep on acting like they are the defending champs.

On the topic, Of course the defense was unsustainable.

[Double Helix]

I don't even know where Raps fans get their entitlement. Their team has proven nothing and they already peaked with Derozan and Lowry as their lead guys. But their fans keep on acting like they are the defending champs.

On the topic, Of course the defense was unsustainable.

What are you even on about? Everyone knows all roads lead to Lebron — one of the true greats and a player better than either of our franchises has had in over 30 years. Yes, he’s better than Bird. Ainge timed his all in vet effort well. Just prior to Lebron’s playoff IQ reaching full maturity. The Celtics and Raptors haven’t been able to get past him ever since. There’s more money and owners willing to spend in the tax to build super teams than there was back when it was mostly the Celtics and Lakers just going back and forth the way the old Montréal Canadians did with the old Toronto Maple Leafs. Those days are long gone and neither the Raptors nor the Celtics have won more than a single title over the past 30 years so fans of either team shouldn’t feel too cocky. You know who can feel cocky? Bulls fans. Lakers fans. Spurs fans. Heat fans. Warriors fans. If your team has won multiple titles in the Internet era you can puff your chest out all you want. The rest of us need to be humble.

Nobody acts like the Raptors have won anything. If anything it’s the fact that neither the Raptors or Celtics are likely to best Lebron for the next few years that leads to the rivalry over the competition to be second best to the Cavs and see who is more likely to peak higher between rebuilding again and possibly push an in-Prime Lebron James to 7 games in a Conference Final before he retires and the 76ers rise up to take the East.

[Froob]

I still think Toronto is better than Boston and would beat them in a playoff series easily, Boston is overrated.

Agreed, when it comes down to it you gotta take a Lowry led team over a Kyrie led team in the playoffs.

[GreenBloodedC]

I don't even know where Raps fans get their entitlement. Their team has proven nothing and they already peaked with Derozan and Lowry as their lead guys. But their fans keep on acting like they are the defending champs.

On the topic, Of course the defense was unsustainable.

What are you even on about? Everyone knows all roads lead to Lebron — one of the true greats and a player better than any of our franchises has had in our existences. Yes, he’s better than Bird. There’s more money and owners willing to spend in the tax to build super teams than there was back when it was mostly the Celtics and Lakers just going back and forth the way the old Montréal Canadians did with the old Toronto Maple Leafs. Those days are long gone and neither team has won more than a single title over the past 30 years so fans of either team shouldn’t feel too cocky.

Nobody acts like the Raptors have won anything. If anything it’s the fact that neither the Raptors or Celtics are likely to best Lebron for the next few years 5 that leads to the rivalry over the competition to be second best to the Cavs and see who is more likely to peak higher between rebuilding again and possibly push an in-Prime Lebron James to 7 games in a Conference Final before he retires and the 76ers rise up to take the East.

I don't know about that. It's not like Raps fans derail every thread that involves the Celtics or Celtics players.
We could just take a look at the first page or any thread that involves the Celtics or other teams in the East that are not the Cavs.

Or that they have been calling the Celtics overrated and our players overrated from IT to Kyrie, and maybe Gordon when he returns. Let's not mind those stuff.

[Double Helix]

I still think Toronto is better than Boston and would beat them in a playoff series easily, Boston is overrated.

Agreed, when it comes down to it you gotta take a Lowry led team over a Kyrie led team in the playoffs.

We’ve yet to see a Kyrie-lead team make the playoffs. This will be the first year that happens.

The rest were Lebron-lead teams.

[Double Helix]

You guys do realize that when you rise near the top of either conference it means other teams fans are going to analyze you more and benchmark you more. That comes with the territory. For a fan base supposedly accustomed to winning you sure seem surprised when other fans consider your teams worthy of analysis.

If the Wizards were up at the top in the East or the Bucks we’d all talk about them, too.

There’s also the Ringer factor. Bill Simmons Ringer site, decked out in Green, has abandoned all previous attempts at Grantland to at least try and seem impartial on NBA analysis. Some fans read the Ringer Celtic propaganda and grow a little tired of the non-stop positive spin and want some actual deep dives into the team and what’s working, what isn’t, and why.

[Froob]

I still think Toronto is better than Boston and would beat them in a playoff series easily, Boston is overrated.

Agreed, when it comes down to it you gotta take a Lowry led team over a Kyrie led team in the playoffs.

We’ve yet to see a Kyrie-lead team make the playoffs. This will be the first year that happens.

The rest were Lebron-lead teams.

Well I think it’s a lot easier to count on Kyrie to take over a big game than it is on Lowry. The advantages the Raps have had on us past few years aren’t there anymore. They won’t kill us on the boards anymore and JB does a much better job on DeRozen than Bradley did. Kyrie is a lot better defender than IT. It’d be fun to see, hope we finally get this playoff series this year.

[FinnTheHuman]

I think in the next few years, they can have a historically great defense - Horford, Tatum and Brown and Smart are just that good. I mean, when I watch these guys defend, I rarely see them do anything but make perfect decisions. Kyrie is also doing a lot of good things too. They're very comparable to GSW when it comes to defense, pretty much the same type and amount of defensive talent. And make no mistake, if GSW were motivated to do it, they could be a historically great defensive team. It's just that they can afford not to defend hard all the time, while the Celtics can't as much.

Hayward's injury killed their wing depth, so once he comes back, the rest of the wings will have an easier time playing with full intensity without getting worn out after some time. Plus the additional pieces they get should propel them even higher. Next season, or in two seasons, they could have a historically great defensive season.