Elijah Fisher + an 11yo 6’11: The juniors

[Hair Canada]

This will be my final post on the young Canadian players and the future of Canadian basketball.

Some on this forum have questioned whether there’s even a point talking about players this young and maybe even whether it’s morally justifiable. I think that there are actually two main claims here: the first is that this is somehow morally wrong, perhaps because it somehow damages young players or maybe because we should just not be talking about kids in any way. The second is that this is just futile. For kids under a certain age, who have not even yet finished their physical development, any prediction is just irresponsible and almost surely due to fail. So let's examine these two claims more closely:

1. This is damaging young souls. The argument as I understand it is that simply by writing on these kids and trying to assess their future chances I might somehow be hurting them. I think this is the more serious charge, but also the one that I really do not find to be valid. First, it’s important to clarify that this field is indeed open to abuse. In particular, the prep-school business (in all sports) is a hotbed of selling kids unrealistic dreams and making them (their parents) pay exorbitant amounts to private institutions, despite often knowing fully well that these kids do not even have enough potential to earn a college scholarship. I agree that this is quite despicable and unfortunate.

But this is beside the point I think. For better or worse, we are often fascinated with young prodigies. And this is not only true in sports. It is also the case in science, where young inventors or math geniuses are celebrated by adults. And it’s certainly true in the arts and music, where a very young singer or pianist might be heralded as the next big thing. This has always been the case (Mozart), but modern media has certainly given it more salience.

Since that’s the case, many of these kids are already getting quite a bit of media coverage, including from mainstream media. Elijah Fisher, for example, who I’ll mention below, has already had whole articles written about him more than a year ago, when he was only 12, including in mainstream Canadian media such as CBC and the National Post. Is this harmful? Perhaps. I could certainly see the argument for why it would be, making a young kid lose focus/hunger and think he’s already achieved. But I’d like better evidence that this is actually what prevents great talents from reaching their potential. I could also see it working the other way around: Kids who do not have great opportunities are spotted by Basketball Canada or (social) media, and consequently are given opportunities like a full tuition and a chance to work out in great facilities and with the best coaches. Arguably, some great talents were untapped because no one ever discovered them and they kept playing under mediocre coaches and against inadequate competition, not having to really work on their skills and improve.

In any case, it would take quite a bit of hubris on my part to think that by writing on any of these young players here in a fans' forum I somehow manage to injure their soft souls or ruin their chances for success by irrevocably stroking their ego and sending them on the path to self-destruction. If anything, I would argue that it's the opposite: The kids who no one writes about are those who feel slighted.


2. There is just no way of predicting anything at this age. I actually have much more sympathy for this claim and quite understand the unease. Anyone who’s ever followed young prodigies knows that the overwhelming majority do not make it to the NBA. Many do not even become professionals for various reasons. On the other hand, there are probably quite a few players who no one pays much attention to at a young age, but eventually end up being better than the ones who are touted as the next big thing. At these ages, so much can happen in terms of physical and mental development, as well as things like injuries and getting into trouble with the law. So naturally, any predictions must be extremely careful.

But there are a couple of things that I want to mention here. First, it’s a bit hard to talk about the future without mentioning any names. If I just said that I think Canada basketball has a great future, perhaps even better than the present, but brought no evidence for that, then that's just empty talk. So I try to still mention a few names, just to show what I’m talking about and where things might be going.

Second, I'm really trying to focus on long-term potential here. There are kids who score 40 points in games now because they are very mature physically or mentally and manage to overpower the competition. But some of them are clearly not very athletic. Others are very dominant but are only about 5'2 or 5'3. So even if they end up growing to 6'0 we know that the chances they will become dominant pros are very low. For every Chris Paul or Isiah Thomas, there are thousands of kids with great talent, but just not enough to get them to the pros.

This is also where the hype around basketball prodigies like Seventh Woods, Jashaun Agosto, or Julian Newman was misplaced. These guys ended up at 6’1, 5’11 and 5’7 respectively, as far as I know. And they all clearly had serious physical limitations (mainly height) that often could already be projected at the young age at which they were touted as the next big thing. This is the difference between being a YouTube sensation and actually trying to seriously project potential. The former tend to be quick guards with a sick handle, who often reach physical maturity early on, but their physical limitations are glaring almost from the start (although some just stop growing at a young age).

Now, in comparison, take the three players I mentioned from the class of 2021. All of them are wings with a very developing skillset. None is currently overly dominant on his team or showcases a phenomenal handle. But they are all already at least 6’7 and likely to be 6’9 or 6’10. And they are all very good athletes, long, and mobile. This is truly what makes one an NBA potential (along with a host of other things of course). And while nothing is guaranteed, if you have a good number of prospects of this type, you might hope that at least a few of them are able to eventually make the jump to the next level.

Finally, I should say that I'm not necessarily only focusing on the NBA. These are kids who are likely to become members of the U16 and U18 national teams over the next few years. And eventually, some of them will hopefully also be able to contribute to the national team, even if they do not crack the NBA. What I’m hoping for is a wide base of both NBA and other high-level professionals, which will give us a really solid roster.


Okay, after this long introduction, I’m still going to take my chances and talk about just a few more Canadian kids (this time really kids) who seem to hold some promise.

If it’s not your thing, feel free to ignore and move on. No one is forcing you to read.

Class of 2023:

Elijah Fisher (6’5; Wing). Perhaps the best Canadian talent at the young ages after RJ Barrett. Perhaps same level of talent as Andrew Wiggins when he was this age. Fisher is a physical specimen. Fantastic size for position – tall, very long (I think I’ve read something about a 6’10 wingspan; not sure), large hands, great physical frame with lots of room for development, and an explosive athlete. At 13 he is already dunking over opponents and completely dominating the competition at his age group. From what I’ve seen, he also has great defensive potential, both because of his physical gifts and because he plays with passion and seems committed on defense. Ranked #1 in North America by Global Grassroots and other ranking websites (yes, there are websites that rank kids as young as 9yo). Of course, much can still change (and probably will), but this gives some indication about his level of basic talent.

Fisher appears to have a good character and so far seems to be focused and staying with his feet on the ground despite the attention. He also has excellent working habits, which should help him improve his skill. Training and playing under Ro Russell at his new Crestwood Prep project might also help, as Ro knows a thing or two about the road it takes to get to the professionals. Right now, Fisher is still very right-hand dominant. He will have to significantly improve his ball handling skills and outside shot to really tap into his potential. Should be noted though that if he follows a normal growth curve for his age, he might end up at around 6’10 or 6’11. With his length, strength, and athleticism, this means he might be able to play at both of the forward positions and maybe eventually will gravitate toward the four. But even if he is a case of someone who matured early, and he only ends up reaching 6’7, he should still have a bright future ahead of him, considering his length, athleticism, and good handle.

By the way, while Fisher is an excellent prospect, I don’t think he is actually the most promising talent in the world for this age group. Emoni Bates from Michigan is considered in the class of 2022, but is only a few months older than Elijah. He’s a 6’7 guard, with great ball handling and a very clean effortless perimeter shot with great range. Not as athletic or strong as Fisher at this stage, but seems more of a natural talent. Completely unstoppable at this level and seems like a future generational player if all goes well (we’re talking KD version 2.0 – taller, but with a similar shooting stroke, ball handling skills and feel for the game).

Jaiden Cole (6'3 guard/SF). Not nearly as well-known as Fisher, or even as Olembe below, but a great prospect from what I've seen. Great size and length, but also already impressive athlete -- quick, mobile and can already dunk easily on the break. Also very coordinated and great ball handling skills for his height. And perhaps most impressive for me – already showing excellent court vision and passing, especially when leading transition offense. Keeps his head up, looks for friends, and passes with both hands. Outside shooting is not quite there yet. Nothing is broken, but the next two that I mention below have much cleaner and better looking shooting mechanics stroke. Still, that’s the one that is probably easiest to work on and at this age there’s plenty of time to do that.

Jahsemar Olembe (6’4 guard). A shooting guard with great size (should probably end up around 6’8 or 6’9). Already has wide shoulders and a good frame. Also has a really nice shooting stroke and a tight handle, the type you see from guards. Athleticism is developing – nothing like Fisher – but he can already dunk and has fairly good mobility. A scorer, but not one dimensional. Despite being the best player on his team, he’s a willing passer. Global Grassroots ranked him #2 in North America in the class of 2023, right after Fisher, making it two Canadians in a row. Not sure if he’s that good (I actually think Cole might be more promising), but it means that he has very good potential in the eyes of some scouts who see these kids a lot and can compare them to one another.

Anthony Wrzeszcz. A tall PG (looks around 6 feet to me). Excellent shooter and slasher, with decent athleticism and strength and very good court vision. Really liked what I’ve seen from him. Plays with poise and maturity way beyond his years. We’ll still need to see how his physical development progresses and how he looks like against tougher competition over the next few years. More importantly, how in the world do you pronounce his last name? Might need to learn in the coming years.

Class of 2024:

Mikkel Tyne. Yes, I’m well aware that we’re talking about 12 year-olds now, so I’m only going to talk about one of them who I feel is more special. Considering his age, Tyne has good size for the PG position (maybe around 5’10?), already with solid physique and athleticism (I think he can already dunk). Like Fisher, he also plays for Crestwood, and in the few games I watched him he looked special, playing against kids who are 15 or 16 (including some of the best in the 2021 class). Very smooth and composed. Drives with a purpose, with his head up, looking for teammates or for his shot. Already has great ball handling skills with both hands and in the games I’ve seen was able to get to the rim without much difficulty and finish with either hand. Also an excellent and willing passer. Last year he led Toronto City Elite to a perfect season, playing many games against the top competition in the US. Tyne is currently ranked #1 in North America in the class of 2024 by Global Grassroots. Again, nothing to get worked up about, but he does look really good for his age. With kids this young, obviously a lot depends on physical development and a host of other factors.

Class of 2025:

Olivier Rioux. An 11 years old from Montreal. 6’10 or 6’11. Need I say more? Maybe a little. First, if he follows a normal growth curve trajectory for boys his age, he could end up at around 7’8. The tallest NBA players ever (Manute Bol and Gheorghe Muresan) were 7’7. Even if that doesn’t happen, seems like he’ll probably be at least 7’3 or 7’4. At these heights, you don’t need to be a great athlete to get a shot at the NBA. Just need to be strong enough to not be pushed over and be able to move your feet on defense and show some coordination. From the very little I’ve seen of Rioux, it seems like he has a decent frame for his age (not a skeleton) and he can run the court. In 10 years we’ll see where this leads him.


Okay, I’ve really gone here into childhood territories. So before getting stoned (some of you might think I’m already there…), let me just clarify again that my purpose here is not to predict with accuracy who exactly is going to be the next generation of Canadians in the NBA (although trying to guess that can always be fun). Instead, I just want to highlight that the bounty does not seem to be depleted. While certain individual players might not live up to their potential (in fact, that’s pretty much a given), when you have a broad base of talent at the young ages (and we do), this should eventually translate into a few players from each class who have a shot at making it into the NBA. And from this pool, hopefully, we’ll eventually have a few starters, a star or two, and perhaps even a superstar. That’s all we can ask for I think from a country of 35 million that has been historically obsessed with another sport altogether...

Perhaps a bit of a bold prediction, but I think that within 5-10 years the number of Canadians in the league is going to exceed 20. Just go back in time 10 years and you’ll see how remarkable such a number actually is (in 2007 we had two players – Nash and Magloire). Naturally, I realize that predicting so far into the future can be quite futile/foolish. But it doesn’t make it less fun 

As for the national team, my sense is that to some extent the future is already here. In the coming World Championship and Olympic games (assuming we qualify), we should be able to put forward a nice and competitive team, although, as I said before, probably not one that will bring a medal home. Then, by 2023-24 I foresee some further improvement and a team that would really be a medal contender.

Finally, my prediction is that this should all culminate ten years from now (the 2027 world championship), where we might finally really have the second best team in the world. Potentially, this team might still include players like Wiggins (at the age of 32), Murray (30), Lyles (31), and Brooks (31), along with RJ Barret and his generation, which should all be at the height of their careers. And maybe even some from the younger generation that I talked about here. In sum, I wouldn’t worry too much about missing the opportunity with the current “golden generation” in 2020 (hopefully we’ll still do well).

Canadian basketball is here to stay!


Previous posts:

2017-18:
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=1643672
2019:
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=1644140
2020:
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=1644482&p=60956369#p60956369
2021:
viewtopic.php?t=1644845
2022:
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=1645274

[Mister Ze]

6'11 at 11 is unreal someone with that much potential should move to the states ASAP and begin training.

[Drop Shot]

Damn 6'10/6'11 at 11 years old? Hope the kid stays mobile and coordinated

[NG15]

Great analysis on the young guys. As someone who works closely with Canada Basketball during Junior Academy, I can attest to how talented and advanced Elijah Fisher is for his age.

Just by virtue of watching him play against older guys and the way he impacts the game at such a young age (I believe he's a 7th grader), it's remarkable to see, truly.

[Inevitable]

TLDR is there any video of the yute?

[Mack11]

Damn 6'10/6'11 at 11 years old? Hope the kid stays alive

ftfy

[raptor jesus]

Damn 6'10/6'11 at 11 years old? Hope the kid stays mobile and coordinated

Yeah, was thinking the same thing. Contrary to belief, there is such a thing as being too tall to play basketball (especially as the game becomes smaller and faster).

[Northface82]

Id start him at PG

[metafisical]

What? 11 years old and 6'11? He has not gone through puberty. At full growth, he might be 9 feet tall with a 14 foot wingspan. I say we tank to draft him.

[Yallbecrazy]

Yet my class of 2038 thread got locked

[Raps in 4]

6'11 at 11 is unreal someone with that much potential should move to the states ASAP and begin training.

Is it possible he has a growth disability?

[Hair Canada]

6'11 at 11 is unreal someone with that much potential should move to the states ASAP and begin training.

Is it possible he has a growth disability?

Doesn't seem like it. His brother, Emile, who is three years older, is 6'9 (almost made it to the Canadian Cadet team this summer). His dad is 6'8. So while Olivier is clearly taller, it runs in the family.

[fouronesix22]

wtf 6'11? Hes gonna grow even more, lets say he caps out at age 18-19 he might be 7'5 ish. damn.

[rapz101]

Watch on YouTube

apparently thats him just a year ago, lol, this kid is not normal

[omar36]

11 is what grade 5/6? thats insane

[beanbag]

This is so ridiculous. What the he'll are you able to project watching any video of this kid playing against competition half the size of him.

Also, we're all in agreement Hair Canada is a DH alias right?

[beanbag]

This is so ridiculous. What the hell are you able to project watching any video of this kid playing against competition half the size of him.

Also, we're all in agreement Hair Canada is a DH alias right?

[beanbag]

This is so ridiculous. What the hell are you able to project watching any video of this kid playing against competition half the size of him.

Also, we're all in agreement Hair Canada is a DH alias right?

[dukes_wild]

How the hell is that even physically possible? I was like 5'1. This dude is like 2 feet taller than I was at that age.

[Geddy]

Watch on YouTube

apparently thats him just a year ago, lol, this kid is not normal

That's like unlocking the over powered secret character in a video game