RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #70

[penbeast0]

Actually Jones had 11 1st team All-D awards (And 1 2nd in his final season) . . . 2 ABA, 9 NBA.

[dhsilv2]

I think personality matters. Webber was a guy who didn't work hard to maximize his talent or do a lot of analysis. He quit on his team in Washington (and I believe in GS). He choked repeatedly in both college and the pros. I don't think he makes my top 100 and certainly not ahead of the likes of Bobby Jones or James Worthy. But then, I'm not as much about the scoring as many other posters.

What's the case for Worthy if scoring doesn't matter?

Anyway case for Webber. First issue is I never remember to book mark the OLD RAPM data to reference and as his best years were late 90's and early 00's I guess I can't check those out. Anyway just to smell test his career, 01 NPI has him 22nd at 2.9. 02 RAPM has him at 14th with a 2.1. 03 has him at 14 at 2.7. Injuries kick in and he's never the same guy.

BPM shows his best years.

97 6.6
02 6.2
(ignoring 96 due to injuries)
00 5.9
94 5.3
98 4.9
01 4.9

94, 96, 98, 00, 01, 02 all were top 10 BPM years and judging by RAPM it doesn't look like BPM is far off, perhaps a small inflation but again I'd like to see 00 and 97.

Digging deeper into RAPM and BPM, what made Webber a top guy wasn't his offense, but his defense which I think due to being on those king's high powered offensive teams has been passed over. Webber is 58th all time in blocked shots, and as a 4 he actually was a pretty darn good rim protector, certainly not at the Duncan level, but a well above average shot blocker. He is also 97th all time in steals, so again he forced turnovers and had pretty good hands (which I've already mentioned before in terms of his passing in other posts). He is 47th all time in defensive rebounds, with 4 top 10 seasons. Again more support for him being a better defender than perhaps given credit for.

Other mentioned that there wasn't a major drop off in scoring from 03 to 04 (when he missed much of the season). However the Kings were 2nd in defensive rating at 99.1 in 03 and they fell to 104.9 and 21st in defensive rating in 04 when Webber missed most of the season. The guy often given credit for that King's defense was Doug Christie who played 80 and 82 games respectively in those seasons.

We see similar defensive results with webber from 98 to 99 on the bullzards. 104.5 defensive rating (14th int he league), it dropped to 103.7 but their league ranking dropped to 21. I'll let you ponder the league changes from 98 to 99, but I feel rankings are a better metric given the lockout year and how teams didn't seem to know how to score that year. The team also dropped massively in wins but there was an awful lot of roster changes.

96 107.6 defensive rating (played 15 games) 97 healthy their defensive rating drops to 104.9. Only 2 spot move in team rankings so I'll let you draw conclusion there, I'm not sure I have one.

The warriors also went from 13th in defensive rating with him to 25th, but again I'm not sure how much to draw there with roster moves.

5x alstar 5x all nba (only 1 was 3rd team) despite playing in a heavy power forward era. He received MVP votes 5 times finishing as high as 4th and it was a strong 4th place at .420 share.

Playoffs were Webber were a bit disappointing imo. That said 02 the Kings absolutely could have won the title and Webber did have a very good playoff run there. I'd want to be critical of 01 where he shot 42% from the field, but Peja shot 39.7, Christie shot 32.5%, and Vlade shot 36.8%.

Anyway there's my case for why Webber should be considered. He was a very good defender which has been over looked while still being a well above average offensive player who imo was allowed to or was asked to shoot more than was optimal. He was the leader of one of the more interesting and bigger what if teams in the last 25 years and his playoff performances are at least better than Grant Hill who's getting traction.

I get taking a Bobby Jones if you value defense a lot. I don't really see the case for Worthy though as Webber was just a better player, even if he had some locker room issues. Also how much does Webber's career arch change just by having a rookie salary cap in place when he got into the league? I feel like just fixing that early narrative about him would have dramatically improved people's opinions on him.

[trex_8063]

Actually Jones had 11 1st team All-D awards (And 1 2nd in his final season) . . . 2 ABA, 9 NBA.

No, he had 10 All-Defensive 1st Teams (8 NBA, 2 ABA), one All-D 2nd Team in his second-to-last season; nothing in his final season.

EDIT: tbh, I've been a touch underwhelmed at times by his halfcourt defense in games I've watched recently (were playoff games against the Celtics). Perhaps I'm watching with a hyper-critical eye (in light of his defensive accolades and rep), such that any error is being fixated on more than the good plays.

[trex_8063]

Thru post #23:

Bob McAdoo - 2 (trex_8063, dhsilv2)
Sidney Moncrief - 1 (penbeast0)
Grant Hill - 1 (pandrade83)
Bobby Jones - 1 (LABird)


Will push this to runoff one way or another in about 8 hours.

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[penbeast0]

I think personality matters. Webber was a guy who didn't work hard to maximize his talent or do a lot of analysis. He quit on his team in Washington (and I believe in GS). He choked repeatedly in both college and the pros. I don't think he makes my top 100 and certainly not ahead of the likes of Bobby Jones or James Worthy. But then, I'm not as much about the scoring as many other posters.

What's the case for Worthy if scoring doesn't matter?

....

I didn't say scoring doesn't matter, I said I'm not as heavily influenced by it as many other posters who weigh it more heavily.

And Trex, thanks, I miscounted.

[dhsilv2]

I think personality matters. Webber was a guy who didn't work hard to maximize his talent or do a lot of analysis. He quit on his team in Washington (and I believe in GS). He choked repeatedly in both college and the pros. I don't think he makes my top 100 and certainly not ahead of the likes of Bobby Jones or James Worthy. But then, I'm not as much about the scoring as many other posters.

What's the case for Worthy if scoring doesn't matter?

....

I didn't say scoring doesn't matter, I said I'm not as heavily influenced by it as many other posters who weigh it more heavily.

And Trex, thanks, I miscounted.

Sorry, I was exaggerating, not really a good response for a good discourse. That said Worthy doesn't rate highly defensively or in really much else than scoring, mostly in transition for me. What am I missing? I will say his game is kinda without any real flaws, not much I can pick at either.

[penbeast0]

I was never a Worthy fan (always said that if Terry Cummings stayed healthy he would have been better than Nique or Worthy), but he was a great transition scorer, very good first step to free himself in high/mid post half court, and I always thought of him as a good defender . . . plus, like Sam Jones, he has the big game rep.

[Clyde Frazier]

Vote 1 - Bob McAdoo

Vote 2 - Paul Arizin

Can obviously go in a lot of directions at this point. McAdoo’s prime isn’t as long as I’d like, but he had some really solid production during those years and peaked highly in 75:

Regular Season (won MVP)
34.5 PPG, 14.1 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.1 SPG, 2.1 BPG, 56.9% TS (+6.7% vs. league average)

Playoffs
37.4 PPG, 13.4 RPG, 1.4 APG, .9 SPG, 2.7 BPG, 52.8% TS

The Braves would lose in 7 games to the #1 SRS ranked Bullets, with a valiant effort by McAdoo

As he transitioned into a role player for the Lakers, he was integral in their 82 championship run in his first season there:

16.7 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.6 APG, .7 SPG, 1.5 BPG, 58.6% TS, 108 ORTG, .126 WS/48

[Outside]

Well, this is funny after the last couple of posts.

Vote: James Worthy
Alternate: Sidney Moncrief

I'll make a brief argument in favor of Worthy by responding to the previous posts.

Worthy doesn't rate highly defensively or in really much else than scoring, mostly in transition for me. What am I missing? I will say his game is kinda without any real flaws, not much I can pick at either.

I was never a Worthy fan (always said that if Terry Cummings stayed healthy he would have been better than Nique or Worthy), but he was a great transition scorer, very good first step to free himself in high/mid post half court, and I always thought of him as a good defender . . . plus, like Sam Jones, he has the big game rep.

That sounds like an impression someone would get from watching highlight clips, but Worthy was much more than that.

Defensively, he was very good. The Lakers were known for their offense, often first in ORtg, but they were also top 10 every year in DRtg, and Worthy was a capable member of that defense.

Offensively, he was far more than a fast-break finisher. He had range out to 20 feet, could drive either direction using an explosive first step, and excellent spin moves either direction when posting up. His athleticism got your attention, but his fundamentals and skills are what made his athleticism so dangerous.

His RS production was good, not great. But his increase in production in the PS, while universally acknowledged, gets underplayed. People mention it like it's an odd anomaly, something to be dismissed like stats inflation for 60s players. But I think it's a huge plus in the argument for Worthy, for multiple reasons:

-- He did it on a team that was routinely first in ORtg and had multiple excellent scoring options. But come playoff time, teams go to the scorers who can produce as the defense amps up, and the Lakers did that with Worthy. Sure, he could've averaged more during the regular season if they'd gone to him more, but they didn't need to because they outscored everybody with an equal opportunity offense. But in the playoffs, teams lean more heavily on their most reliable options, and for the Lakers, that was Worthy. And that was with his full arsenal of offensive abilities, not just finishing on fast breaks.

-- He did it more efficiently. His RS TS% is a very good 55.9. His PS TS% is 57.8. I'd be interested to know how many other players increase their production (RS 17.6 pts, 5.1 reb, 3.0 ast, 1.1 stl, 2.0 tov vs PS 21.2 pts, 5.2 reb, 3.2 ast, 1.2 stl, 2.1 tov) AND their efficiency.

-- The dude became known as Big Game James. He came through in the biggest games on the biggest stage.

For a group that values efficiency, I don't understand why Worthy doesn't get more love. Here's a comparison between Worthy and five other players recently voted in, Adrian Dantley, Alex English, Tracy McGrady, Dominque Wilkins, and Vince Carter:

http://bkref.com/tiny/p6xQg

A rundown of key stats:

Wilkins - 56 PS games, scoring rose (24.8 to 25.4), TS% dropped (53.6 to 51.0). Lowest RS TS%, 2nd lowest PS TS%.

Dantley - 73 PS games, scoring dropped (24.3 to 21.3), TS% dropped (61.7 to 60.6). Highest RS and PS TS% of the group.

English - 68 PS games, scoring rose (21.5 to 24.4), TS% rose (55.0 to 55.6). Only player in the group to have both scoring and TS% rise.

McGrady - 50 PS games, scoring rose (19.6 to 22.2), TS% dropped slightly (51.9 to 51.2). Fewest PS games of the group, lowest RS TS%, 2nd lowest PS TS%.

Carter - 88 PS games, scoring the same (18.1 to 18.1), TS% dropped (53.6 to 51.8).

Worthy - 143 PS games, scoring rose (17.6 to 21.2), TS% rose (55.9 to 57.8).

Worthy's scoring rose more than any player in the group. His TS% is second highest in both RS and PS, with Carter, Wilkins, and McGrady trailing significantly. Worthy and English are the only players to have TS% rise and his rose by a greater amount. And Worthy did this over a much greater sample size, more than twice that of English, Wilkins, and McGrady, almost twice that of Dantley, and 55 more than runner-up Carter, who is in his 20th season.

Worthy definitely has a case here.

[dhsilv2]

I think saying Worthy is without a flaw is pretty darn complementary. But yeah I see him 85-95 range. He just didn't have the longevity or the peak for me. Not sure I follow the argument you made for him though. What does he have over a former MVP and so many guys that had better peaks? Also he played against in the west during his era one of the weaker conferences defensively, so of course his offense looked better.

[jpengland]

Shawn Marion

Fantastic peak, longevity as an impact player.

[trex_8063]

I was never a Worthy fan (always said that if Terry Cummings stayed healthy he would have been better than Nique or Worthy), but he was a great transition scorer, very good first step to free himself in high/mid post half court, and I always thought of him as a good defender . . . plus, like Sam Jones, he has the big game rep.

Chiming in on Worthy.....
I don't appear to be as high on him as the status quo is (which is to say: I'm not ready to consider him here). I generally agree with what pen's said here about him: excellent transition scorer, had a nice first step to attack off the dribble in isolation from elbow/mid-post (I also remember a lot of moves like one quick dribble in one direction then quick spin the opposite direction and attack the rim), an entirely decent half-court defender, and obv has that big game reputation (nickname "Big Game James", and his playoff numbers are indeed quite frequently more impressive than his rs numbers).

Couple things I'll add by way of completeness:
*Criticisms/narratives that his scoring prowess was only because he got to play almost his entire career next to arguably the GOAT playmaker fall at least a little flat: Magic missed significant games at various points in their overlapping careers, and if I'm not mistaken, Worthy's scoring and efficiency remained more or less consistent at those times (though his efficiency does take a major dip upon Magic's retirement, though other factors could apply). The guy was a legit scorer for sure.
**Generally mediocre passer/playmaker.
***Whereas dhsilv2 had mentioned "no weaknesses" to his game, I feel he had one: rebounding. Is at least a slight weak-spot for him, imo. He wasn't necessarily a "terrible" rebounder, but he was far from good. A 6'9" SF who peaked at 6.4 rpg (despite FOUR seasons >36 mpg), career avg of 5.1 rpg (5.6 reb/36 minutes) is a little suspect in this regard [imho].
****Longevity/durability/consistency spectrum is merely "OK". Played just 12 seasons (926 rs games, 30,001 rs minutes), though his final season is utterly meaningless (too far declined); even his second-to-last season is of minimal [if any] value. His prime is only 6-8 seasons (depending on how liberal one wants to be with the definition), though.


I know there are many dissenting opinions on him, but speaking for myself, I'll probably not lend him serious consideration until we're out around #80 or so.

[trex_8063]

Thru post #32:

Bob McAdoo - 3 (Clyde Frazier, trex_8063, dhsilv2)
Sidney Moncrief - 1 (penbeast0)
Grant Hill - 1 (pandrade83)
Bobby Jones - 1 (LABird)
James Worthy - 1 (Outside)


McAdoo's obviously in the runoff; going to the 2ndary votes to determine who against. Moncrief is the only one of the single-vote recipients who also has a secondary vote, so it'll be between McAdoo and Moncrief. Eliminating the others transfers one vote to each of them:

Bob McAdoo - 4 (pandrade83, Clyde Frazier, trex_8063, dhsilv2)
Sidney Moncrief - 2 (penbeast0, Outside)


If your name isn't shown here, please state your pick between Bob and Sid, with reasons why. Will conclude runoff in ~24 hours.

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[dhsilv2]

Shawn Marion

Fantastic peak, longevity as an impact player.

Marion is one of the few guys who imo didn't peak that highly but had just an amazing enough career that i'd be willing to champion soon. He kind goes against my normal criteria but as I've said once the elite peaks are gone, longevity starts being more meaningful for me.

[trex_8063]

Shawn Marion

Fantastic peak, longevity as an impact player.

Marion is one of the few guys who imo didn't peak that highly but had just an amazing enough career that i'd be willing to champion soon. He kind goes against my normal criteria but as I've said once the elite peaks are gone, longevity starts being more meaningful for me.

Yeah, I too will be supporting Marion before Worthy. Worthy was a superior scorer, and a better playmaker (though not exactly a needle-mover as a playmaker); but Marion was a better defender, far superior rebounder, and better longevity. Collectively, that nudges him just a pinch ahead of Worthy as far as I'm concerned (Marion in the mid-70's for me).

[penbeast0]

Marion is one of my favorites along with similarly accomplished Larry Nance; I would put him in front of Worthy without question if it was just regular season. Adding postseason I will have to do some thinking.

[trex_8063]

Thru post #36:

Bob McAdoo - 4 (pandrade83, Clyde Frazier, trex_8063, dhsilv2)
Sidney Moncrief - 2 (penbeast0, Outside)


~5 hours remaining for anyone who wants to chime in.

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[trex_8063]

Thru post #37:

Bob McAdoo - 4 (pandrade83, Clyde Frazier, trex_8063, dhsilv2)
Sidney Moncrief - 2 (penbeast0, Outside)


Well hell, wish there was a way to know no one else was going to be heard in the runoff; could have saved us 24 hours. Anyway, calling it for McAdoo. Will have the next thread up in a minute.

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