Pistons

bigdamoan2k2 · Post #41 » by **bigdamoan2k2** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 2:22 pm

I think this year has been the worst I've ever seen in terms of premature predictions. After 3 games everyone was talking about the Orlando Magic as the surprise team of the year lol. No one is willing to be patient enough to allow teams to settle in to what they really are. Detroit seems to be settling into what they really are, a 7-8th seed team. Let's see where they stand at all-star break.

JXL · Post #42 » by **JXL** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 2:25 pm

Their schedule is damning, but they'll get back to the winning side cause their next 5 games are vs. mediocre teams (except Indiana).

Zingod · Post #43 » by **Zingod** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 2:32 pm

They are who we thought they are. 7th , 8th seed at their best.

Johnny Bball · Post #44 » by **Johnny Bball** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 2:41 pm

MotownMadness wrote:
NashtyNas wrote:
MotownMadness wrote: Out of the playoffs is hard to imagine. I guess as a outsider it looks worse trying to play it out but they just look better and more talented this year for this to continue and miss the playoffs. There's just not enough teams better to scare me like that.

Honestly outside of Cleveland I'm not even scared of a 7 game series in the East this year. We can definitely compete and aren't that kind of a fluke.

I don't think outside the playoffs is that hard to imagine.

They have ~30 games left before the All-Star break, 12 of which are against teams they shouldn't be favored against (4 against teams they have multiple losses against already). Even if I give them 4/8 remaining wins, that leaves 18 games they can win, and assuming a modest .50 win rate for those 18 games, they are going 4/8 + 9/9 = 13/17 in the stretch before the All-Star Break.

Obviously, this is all on paper and it's quite possible they can get wins we don't expect them to - it happens every season.
But just judging based on schedule and historical performance, I don't think it's outside of the realm of possibility that they aren't in the playoff race come February 14thxd. In fact, if I was betting, I'd bet on the idea that they aren't in the race by that date simply because of the strength of schedule.

Other teams vying for the playoffs, namely the Heat, have a much easier schedule over that stretch.
Outside of the Cavs, Rockets, Bucks and Raptors, they play essentially all the worst teams in the NBA multiple times (Orlando, Mavs, Hornets, Kings, Nets, Bulls, Hawks, Grizzlies and many of those teams x2).

If we blow this next 10 games I'll feel more less optimistic. I just can't see it though, as long as the 3 ball keeps dropping we have enough talent. I get feeling pessimistic and rightfully so but I think they right the ship and still come out in that 45-48 win column.

This is also coming from I just don't see that much talent behind and right ahead of us for a big enough collapse like that. Even these teams right in our win and loss column right now are still gonna hit runs and slumps as well.

Pistons are just going through a tougher section and having a tough time. They are far better than last year with Bradley and with Drummond now able to stay on the floor (they will have to figure out when that doesn’t work too). I don’t see any scenario short of Bradley being hurt where they miss the playoffs. 1-4 or 5 spots will be pretty competitive though.

MotownMadness · Post #45 » by **MotownMadness** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 4:05 pm

bigdamoan2k2 wrote:I think this year has been the worst I've ever seen in terms of premature predictions. After 3 games everyone was talking about the Orlando Magic as the surprise team of the year lol. No one is willing to be patient enough to allow teams to settle in to what they really are. Detroit seems to be settling into what they really are, a 7-8th seed team. Let's see where they stand at all-star break.

I don't think anyone jumped the gun. Everyone was pretty cautious but when you get to 20 games in showing the same consistent strengths with a 14-6 record against tough opponents it's fair to say they don't suck and just got lucky like the Magic after 3 games.

We aren't a top tier team or anything but they are a playoff team in the East anywhere from 4-8. Top 3 are Boston, Cavs and Raptors with 4-8 pretty much in the same tier.

Bakuto · Post #46 » by **Bakuto** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 4:18 pm

HoopsMalone wrote:The problem with the Pistons is that they are a man or two short.

They've got Drummond and Tobias who are very good players. Then they've got Jackson and Tolliver who are solid players... it pretty much drops off a cliff after that.

What's Avery Bradley, chopped liver?

UcanUwill · Post #47 » by **UcanUwill** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 5:08 pm

They are better than Magic, but I thought those were two teams that started way too hot then they really suppose to.

Post #48 » by **Timmaytime** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:02 pm

They've had the second hardest schedule to date, and based on opponent winning percentage have the easiest schedule remaining.

They've beat enough good teams to dispatch any talk of them being flukey (@Boston, @GSW, @Minnesota + Milwaukee, Miami, Indiana, Charlotte and Minnesota again at home), and their only questionable losses are @LAL and a drubbing at home by the Cavs.

Y'all are complaining about small sample sizes with the hot start but losing 6 of 6 during the toughest part of their schedule is chalk? Makes sense.

Let it even out

Post #49 » by **Timmaytime** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:20 pm

asero wrote:Heat is catching up.
They are lucky Embiid seems to revert back on missing games.

I mean, Philly has their own problems, like losing back to back Phoenix and the Lakers at home with Embiid in the game.

Miami isn't exactly playing out of their mind either

SF_Warriors · Post #50 » by **SF_Warriors** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:54 pm

Avery brought them some legitimacy and his presence has improved the team on both ends. Tobias is having a career year and reggie is having a career shooting year.

The question is, who is their best player and is he an ideal first option on a top seeded team? I do not care if you name drummond, harris, bradley, etc, the answer is going to be no. They are regressing to the mean, which is a team whose potential is an under 50-win team, most likely in the 45-48 game range.

Rapcity_11 · Post #51 » by **Rapcity_11** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:57 pm

SF_Warriors wrote:Avery brought them some legitimacy and his presence has improved the team on both ends. Tobias is having a career year and reggie is having a career shooting year.

The question is, who is their best player and is he an ideal first option on a top seeded team? I do not care if you name drummond, harris, bradley, etc, the answer is going to be no. They are regressing to the mean, which is a team whose potential is an under 50-win team, most likely in the 45-48 game range.

Is that why they’re -1.1 net rating with Bradley on the floor and +3.4 with him off?

SF_Warriors · Post #52 » by **SF_Warriors** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:24 pm

Rapcity_11 wrote:
SF_Warriors wrote:Avery brought them some legitimacy and his presence has improved the team on both ends. Tobias is having a career year and reggie is having a career shooting year.

The question is, who is their best player and is he an ideal first option on a top seeded team? I do not care if you name drummond, harris, bradley, etc, the answer is going to be no. They are regressing to the mean, which is a team whose potential is an under 50-win team, most likely in the 45-48 game range.

Is that why they’re -1.1 net rating with Bradley on the floor and +3.4 with him off?

So you are saying that the pistons are better off benching bradley and playing him in a more limited role? Looks like they are a better team without him :roll:

Rapcity_11 · Post #53 » by **Rapcity_11** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:31 pm

SF_Warriors wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
SF_Warriors wrote:Avery brought them some legitimacy and his presence has improved the team on both ends. Tobias is having a career year and reggie is having a career shooting year.

The question is, who is their best player and is he an ideal first option on a top seeded team? I do not care if you name drummond, harris, bradley, etc, the answer is going to be no. They are regressing to the mean, which is a team whose potential is an under 50-win team, most likely in the 45-48 game range.

Is that why they’re -1.1 net rating with Bradley on the floor and +3.4 with him off?

So you are saying that the pistons are better off benching bradley and playing him in a more limited role? Looks like they are a better team without him

No, I'm saying his presence hasn't improved the team at ends.

taj2133 · Post #54 » by **taj2133** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:32 pm

if they don't get it together they could have a fire sale they have some good players on that team that could go to some contenders in the east or west.

Post #55 » by **Timmaytime** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:48 pm

taj2133 wrote:if they don't get it together they could have a fire sale they have some good players on that team that could go to some contenders in the east or west.

Would have to go really really wrong to do that. Gotta remember the average age on this team is only 26, with no starters older than 27 and only one rotation guy over 30.

SF_Warriors · Post #56 » by **SF_Warriors** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:59 pm

Rapcity_11 wrote:
SF_Warriors wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
Is that why they’re -1.1 net rating with Bradley on the floor and +3.4 with him off?

So you are saying that the pistons are better off benching bradley and playing him in a more limited role? Looks like they are a better team without him

No, I'm saying his presence hasn't improved the team at ends.

Sigh, another guy using stats out of context..the competition bradley faces could be dramatically different from the type of players/lineups when he is not playing. For example, he could be -1 against harden, but his backup could be +2 against eric gordon. Doesn't mean he is necessarily better than bradley, he could just be facing a lower quality of competition. Conversely, caldwell pope could be -3 against harden last season, or his backup would be -2 against harden if he were to have started.

Answer this question: Is avery bradley an improvement from their starting SG last season? Can we compare caldwell's pope on/off numbers last season to bradley's this season?

taj2133 · Post #57 » by **taj2133** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:00 pm

Timmaytime wrote:
taj2133 wrote:if they don't get it together they could have a fire sale they have some good players on that team that could go to some contenders in the east or west.

Would have to go really really wrong to do that. Gotta remember the average age on this team is only 26, with no starters older than 27 and only one rotation guy over 30.

It wouldn't surprise me if cleveland gave the piston a call about drummond it would obviously cleveland would have to give up the nets pick to get him i think cleveland would do that if they think drummond is the one championship piece they need.

Rapcity_11 · Post #58 » by **Rapcity_11** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:19 pm

SF_Warriors wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
SF_Warriors wrote:
So you are saying that the pistons are better off benching bradley and playing him in a more limited role? Looks like they are a better team without him

No, I'm saying his presence hasn't improved the team at ends.

Sigh, another guy using stats out of context..the competition bradley faces could be dramatically different from the type of players/lineups when he is not playing. For example, he could be -1 against harden, but his backup could be +2 against eric gordon. Doesn't mean he is necessarily better than bradley, he could just be facing a lower quality of competition. Conversely, caldwell pope could be -3 against harden last season, or his backup would be -2 against harden if he were to have started.

Answer this question: Is avery bradley an improvement from their starting SG last season? Can we compare caldwell's pope on/off numbers last season to bradley's this season?

Bradley and KCP are about the same. Average starting SG's who don't move the needle at either end.

Post #59 » by **Capn'O** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:30 pm

We don't actually exist in real life, we're just BasketballReference scrape bots running on Chinese servers.

Han Solo · Post #60 » by **Han Solo** » Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:26 pm

19-14. 4th in the East. Destroyed a Pacers team last night that had momentum coming in. All without Avery Bradley for the last few weeks. They're starting to look like a team that will be in that 4-7 range in the playoff picture. Big improvement from last year. If Van Gundy can swing a trade for a decent SF, they may get out of the first round. Drummond is still shooting 62% from FT. He shot 38% last year. Tobias Harris is shooting 45% from 3 (with many attempts) and averaging 18 ppg.