Season Speculation, Trade Ideas & Discussion Pt. 4

[MathiasPW]

Just two cents: doesn't matter so much as to whether you have high picks, compete now, tank hard, conbuild, or whatever mix n match of strategies you use. There is a great, and I mean really great, amount of randomness to all of it.

FAs chose their destinations in the most random ways. You may be a great organization with a great team plan and cap space, it still may be a decision based on whatever is in the players head (where his friend plays, where his wife wants to be, where he will be the alpha, and on and on and on).

You may be a great talent evaluator and get unlucky with the ping pong balls. Even worse, you may even be lucky and just have some bad injuries destroy your top pick.

It takes for a whole lot of uncontrollable variables to fit in together to make a contender. Each multi championship team has had a full bunch of lucky factors go their way. They feast on that for years. But it eventually runs out. The current Spurs will someday be the current Bulls. Look at the Lakers, for God's sake.

There is no way that is more proven than the other when you count all those randomness factors into the equation.

We depend on luck. Inner Peace.

[bwgood77]

The attitude stuff with chriss is confusing. On one hand he does seem to openly pout and get emotional but on the other hand by all accounts he's a pretty sharp and good dude off the court.

Sent from my SM-G930V using RealGM mobile app

I think he kind of follows Booker's lead with the pouting stuff (if you're talking about to officials). Booker pouts too. People don't mention that but he does. I think if they ever start cutting back on that more calls will start going our way.

I guess the big difference is Booker is a star and pouting + complaining + star = calls. Refs ignore pouty non-stars. It's how the league works...If I had a dollar for every make up call a star gets after complaining a non-call...

Booker's too young and hasn't had enough time to be pouting that much though. It's going to have the opposite effect that you mention. Plus it sends a bad message to players like Chriss and whoever else follows his lead.

The teams who get the most calls are when most of the time the players don't say anything. Maybe they shake their head but they keep their mouth shut and move on to the next play.

The only time the player like Booker will get a make up call if they clearly realize they made the wrong call the play before. They are not going to call it how they see it, see Booker whine, and then give him a call on the other end the next time because he whined.

These refs have a job to do and when you have a bunch of young kids whining at them they are not going to go out of their way to give them favors for it...they are just going to make it worse....the players should have enough evidence to realize this by now.

[lilfishi22]

I think he kind of follows Booker's lead with the pouting stuff (if you're talking about to officials). Booker pouts too. People don't mention that but he does. I think if they ever start cutting back on that more calls will start going our way.

I guess the big difference is Booker is a star and pouting + complaining + star = calls. Refs ignore pouty non-stars. It's how the league works...If I had a dollar for every make up call a star gets after complaining a non-call...

Booker's too young and hasn't had enough time to be pouting that much though. It's going to have the opposite effect that you mention. Plus it sends a bad message to players like Chriss and whoever else follows his lead.

The teams who get the most calls are when most of the time the players don't say anything. Maybe they shake their head but they keep their mouth shut and move on to the next play.

The only time the player like Booker will get a make up call if they clearly realize they made the wrong call the play before. They are not going to call it how they see it, see Booker whine, and then give him a call on the other end the next time because he whined.

These refs have a job to do and when you have a bunch of young kids whining at them they are not going to go out of their way to give them favors for it...they are just going to make it worse....the players should have enough evidence to realize this by now.

He was pouting basically since he got into the league. I'm not endorsing it, I'm just saying that he's lucky he's become a star otherwise he'd just be like Chriss; pouty and getting ignored by the refs or get called for touch fouls. I'm not suggesting Booker is getting makeup calls, I'm just saying stars do and Booker could be on his way towards getting those types of calls if he keeps becoming a bigger star. That's just the natural progression of how ref seems to call fouls.

[bwgood77]

I guess the big difference is Booker is a star and pouting + complaining + star = calls. Refs ignore pouty non-stars. It's how the league works...If I had a dollar for every make up call a star gets after complaining a non-call...

Booker's too young and hasn't had enough time to be pouting that much though. It's going to have the opposite effect that you mention. Plus it sends a bad message to players like Chriss and whoever else follows his lead.

The teams who get the most calls are when most of the time the players don't say anything. Maybe they shake their head but they keep their mouth shut and move on to the next play.

The only time the player like Booker will get a make up call if they clearly realize they made the wrong call the play before. They are not going to call it how they see it, see Booker whine, and then give him a call on the other end the next time because he whined.

These refs have a job to do and when you have a bunch of young kids whining at them they are not going to go out of their way to give them favors for it...they are just going to make it worse....the players should have enough evidence to realize this by now.

He was pouting basically since he got into the league. I'm not endorsing it, I'm just saying that he's lucky he's become a star otherwise he'd just be like Chriss; pouty and getting ignored by the refs or get called for touch fouls. I'm not suggesting Booker is getting makeup calls, I'm just saying stars do and Booker could be on his way towards getting those types of calls if he keeps becoming a bigger star. That's just the natural progression of how ref seems to call fouls.

Watching a lot of various games, it seems like the teams who don't do a lot of complaining end up getting the benefit on a lot of calls that could go either way, and the teams that constantly whine end up having it work against them which, in turn leads to more whining from players and then from fans and then sometimes ejections.

It's kind of even rubbed off on "emotionless" TJ, but I don't mind it too much because it's nice to see him play with a little bit more of an edge....except when he loses it and gets tossed....and once got a technical for throwing the ball.

[LukasBMW]

You guys think it would be worth taking a look at Michael Carter Williams?

I'm serious. We could probably get him for free.

[lilfishi22]

You guys think it would be worth taking a look at Michael Carter Williams?

I'm serious. We could probably get him for free.

I know a lot of people hate Mike James but at this point is MCW any better than him? Even if we made a move for him, we'd have to find a roster spot.

[LukasBMW]

You guys think it would be worth taking a look at Michael Carter Williams?

I'm serious. We could probably get him for free.

I know a lot of people hate Mike James but at this point is MCW any better than him? Even if we made a move for him, we'd have to find a roster spot.

I'd rather have him then Mike James. Maybe he could turn it around.

Plus it is looking more and more likely that we just buy out Monroe. We're not going to be able to trade him and he doesn't fit the timeline. I'd take MCW for a 2nd round pick to fill his spot.

[lilfishi22]

You guys think it would be worth taking a look at Michael Carter Williams?

I'm serious. We could probably get him for free.

I know a lot of people hate Mike James but at this point is MCW any better than him? Even if we made a move for him, we'd have to find a roster spot.

I'd rather have him then Mike James. Maybe he could turn it around.

Plus it is looking more and more likely that we just buy out Monroe. We're not going to be able to trade him and he doesn't fit the timeline. I'd take MCW for a 2nd round pick to fill his spot.

James is averaging 11/3/4 while shooting .384FG% and getting to the line almost 3 times a game in 21.8mpg of action with some questionable on court decision making. Fully acknowledge his flaws as a player but when was the last time MCW has been good?

There's a reason why he's been on 4 teams in 5 seasons in the league. Last two seasons he's averaged 9/4/4, shooting a marginally better .410FG% in almost 25mpg of action. Everywhere he's gone he's basically had his chance to turn it around and unfortunately, it's been a downward trend for him.

[bigfoot]

There are also some damn good players on the list of players who scored below 12 ppg in their 2nd seasons. http://bkref.com/tiny/I93Ns

Nope your search isn't quite right. It includes players that are in my list ... for example, Harden scored more than 12 in his second season but shows up on your list. Note that Harden is on the second page of my list. So let's fix this problem so we can really judge second year players. Here's the lists of active players who averaged more than 9 points/game combined in their first two seasons and less than 9.

More than 9 ... http://bkref.com/tiny/DN9yl ... 152 active players made this list
Less than 9 ... http://bkref.com/tiny/xD8Jf ... 454 active players made this list

Now the real argument is not about "good" players. We're talking about "star" players. It's not even close in terms of star players. No where near close. Only fools would try to argue there is a "good" chance of a player in the second list is going to turn into a star. There is an outside chance but it is way, way more remote than you are making it out to be.

Thank goodness Josh Jackson is in the first list and we have a chance he's going to be decent. Chriss is borderline and if he could turn this goat screw of a start to the season around he might have a chance (slim). I see no chance for Bender to be a star player.

Well we were not talking stars. We were talking whether or not Bender/Chriss are complete busts. Besides, the second lists has soem you could consider stars such as Gobert, Butler, Hayward and Draymond Green and many other solid players some of which may have been (or will be) all stars in Ibaka, Noah, Millsap, DeAndre Jordan, Goran Dragic, Rondo, Korver, Batum, Aaron Gordon, Otto Porter, Derrick Favors, Joe Johnson, David West, Tyson Chandler, Zach Randolph, Al Jefferson, Clint Capela, Jae Crowder, Tobias Harris and Gary Harris. I left a number of solid players off as well.

Yes we were talking about star players ... go back and look at my original reply to AtheJ415

Right now I would say Chriss and Bender are much, much closer to being complete busts than they are to being stars. It's still highly questionable whether they will even be "solid" players in the mold of any that you have listed above. What really chaps me is the fact that we need stars ... not solid players. Chasing these high draft picks is supposed to net us "stars", so Bender and Chriss are busts as far as I am concerned in terms of star potential.

We have exactly one star in Booker and one solid player in Warren. We need another star, period. People who think Chriss or Bender will become star players if we just give them more time are sitting on the "Len" train again. They should show it this year or it is very, very unlikely they will pan out for us as even a "solid" player.

[lilfishi22]

Nope your search isn't quite right. It includes players that are in my list ... for example, Harden scored more than 12 in his second season but shows up on your list. Note that Harden is on the second page of my list. So let's fix this problem so we can really judge second year players. Here's the lists of active players who averaged more than 9 points/game combined in their first two seasons and less than 9.

More than 9 ... http://bkref.com/tiny/DN9yl ... 152 active players made this list
Less than 9 ... http://bkref.com/tiny/xD8Jf ... 454 active players made this list

Now the real argument is not about "good" players. We're talking about "star" players. It's not even close in terms of star players. No where near close. Only fools would try to argue there is a "good" chance of a player in the second list is going to turn into a star. There is an outside chance but it is way, way more remote than you are making it out to be.

Thank goodness Josh Jackson is in the first list and we have a chance he's going to be decent. Chriss is borderline and if he could turn this goat screw of a start to the season around he might have a chance (slim). I see no chance for Bender to be a star player.

Well we were not talking stars. We were talking whether or not Bender/Chriss are complete busts. Besides, the second lists has soem you could consider stars such as Gobert, Butler, Hayward and Draymond Green and many other solid players some of which may have been (or will be) all stars in Ibaka, Noah, Millsap, DeAndre Jordan, Goran Dragic, Rondo, Korver, Batum, Aaron Gordon, Otto Porter, Derrick Favors, Joe Johnson, David West, Tyson Chandler, Zach Randolph, Al Jefferson, Clint Capela, Jae Crowder, Tobias Harris and Gary Harris. I left a number of solid players off as well.

Yes we were talking about star players ... go back and look at my original reply to AtheJ415

Right now I would say Chriss and Bender are much, much closer to being complete busts than they are to being stars. It's still highly questionable whether they will even be "solid" players in the mold of any that you have listed above. What really chaps me is the fact that we need stars ... not solid players. Chasing these high draft picks is supposed to net us "stars", so Bender and Chriss are busts as far as I am concerned in terms of star potential.

We have exactly one star in Booker and one solid player in Warren. We need another star, period. People who think Chriss or Bender will become star players if we just give them more time are sitting on the "Len" train again. They should show it this year or it is very, very unlikely they will pan out for us as even a "solid" player.

I think that's more than fair. Even with all the excuses (lack of meaningful PT, bad coaching, youth, experience etc), that's real hard to argue. We've seen some players who have turned things around in their 3rd, 4th season but those are far and few in between while there are countless rookies who never amounted to anything.

[bwgood77]

Nope your search isn't quite right. It includes players that are in my list ... for example, Harden scored more than 12 in his second season but shows up on your list. Note that Harden is on the second page of my list. So let's fix this problem so we can really judge second year players. Here's the lists of active players who averaged more than 9 points/game combined in their first two seasons and less than 9.

More than 9 ... http://bkref.com/tiny/DN9yl ... 152 active players made this list
Less than 9 ... http://bkref.com/tiny/xD8Jf ... 454 active players made this list

Now the real argument is not about "good" players. We're talking about "star" players. It's not even close in terms of star players. No where near close. Only fools would try to argue there is a "good" chance of a player in the second list is going to turn into a star. There is an outside chance but it is way, way more remote than you are making it out to be.

Thank goodness Josh Jackson is in the first list and we have a chance he's going to be decent. Chriss is borderline and if he could turn this goat screw of a start to the season around he might have a chance (slim). I see no chance for Bender to be a star player.

Well we were not talking stars. We were talking whether or not Bender/Chriss are complete busts. Besides, the second lists has some you could consider stars such as Gobert, Butler, Hayward and Draymond Green and many other solid players some of which may have been (or will be) all stars in Ibaka, Noah, Millsap, DeAndre Jordan, Goran Dragic, Rondo, Korver, Batum, Aaron Gordon, Otto Porter, Derrick Favors, Joe Johnson, David West, Tyson Chandler, Zach Randolph, Al Jefferson, Clint Capela, Jae Crowder, Tobias Harris and Gary Harris. I left a number of solid players off as well.

Yes we were talking about star players ... go back and look at my original reply to AtheJ415

Right now I would say Chriss and Bender are much, much closer to being complete busts than they are to being stars. It's still highly questionable whether they will even be "solid" players in the mold of any that you have listed above. What really chaps me is the fact that we need stars ... not solid players. Chasing these high draft picks is supposed to net us "stars", so Bender and Chriss are busts as far as I am concerned in terms of star potential.

We have exactly one star in Booker and one solid player in Warren. We need another star, period. People who think Chriss or Bender will become star players if we just give them more time are sitting on the "Len" train again. They should show it this year or it is very, very unlikely they will pan out for us as even a "solid" player.

Well you twisted the conversation a bit. AtheJ was just saying that once they fill out they can play different positions and then Frank responded and you piggy backed with...

And once and once and once

Agreed Frank ... right now I suspect once is probably never coming with these two. Again, history shows that high quality players progress significantly in their second year. Len was a whiff, Chriss and Bender are looking to be too. Cross our fingers that Jackson pans out but he's gonna be behind TJ Warren.

Then AtheJ mentioned even no more than 3 or 4 stars currently in the league would probably have passed your judgement by year two.

So I guess in your next response you took it from "high quality players" to "stars" to come up with lists....

No one has been saying these guys are going to be stars. If that is your expectation for them I can see why you are disappointed. There are few stars in this league. Maybe a couple per draft on average. You're lucky if you get one.

The discussion about these two have been primarily about whether or not they will turn into solid nba players.

If you're arguing that they are not going to be stars, I don't think anyone will take the stance that they will be stars. There are very few guys who come into this league that it's clear they will be a star by year two. Usually a #1 pick like LeBron, AD, Blake, Towns. Some of them people expect like Wiggins don't really become stars.

I don't think anyone ever had the expectations of these guys being stars, or any of our draftees for that matter. Scratch that, I guess you did, which is why you seem to be disappointed.

People forget how hard it is to come by stars. The Warriors may have quite a few now but they didn't for a couple of decades. Most teams are very lucky to have one. We may have ourselves one in Booker. We just need a few pieces around him. If he becomes a star and we can add another star or two in addition to that it would be phenomenal, but it's pretty rare to have a few stars on one team.

Sure you have a few teams now where stars are joining together but those are mostly 10-15 year vets. The best way to have continuity with stars is to use your picks wisely and build through the draft, like the Warriors did, and the Thunder before that, and the Spurs have done for years.

Anyway, back to the point. If you were thinking "stars" in your argument with Bender and Chriss, that isn't what I was thinking. I was thinking about people giving up on them entirely, which is what I've read from a few people, so I showed how many solid players scored less than 12 or less than 9 on those lists, a number of them actually are/were stars actually.

[AtheJ415]

Nope your search isn't quite right. It includes players that are in my list ... for example, Harden scored more than 12 in his second season but shows up on your list. Note that Harden is on the second page of my list. So let's fix this problem so we can really judge second year players. Here's the lists of active players who averaged more than 9 points/game combined in their first two seasons and less than 9.

More than 9 ... http://bkref.com/tiny/DN9yl ... 152 active players made this list
Less than 9 ... http://bkref.com/tiny/xD8Jf ... 454 active players made this list

Now the real argument is not about "good" players. We're talking about "star" players. It's not even close in terms of star players. No where near close. Only fools would try to argue there is a "good" chance of a player in the second list is going to turn into a star. There is an outside chance but it is way, way more remote than you are making it out to be.

Thank goodness Josh Jackson is in the first list and we have a chance he's going to be decent. Chriss is borderline and if he could turn this goat screw of a start to the season around he might have a chance (slim). I see no chance for Bender to be a star player.

Well we were not talking stars. We were talking whether or not Bender/Chriss are complete busts. Besides, the second lists has soem you could consider stars such as Gobert, Butler, Hayward and Draymond Green and many other solid players some of which may have been (or will be) all stars in Ibaka, Noah, Millsap, DeAndre Jordan, Goran Dragic, Rondo, Korver, Batum, Aaron Gordon, Otto Porter, Derrick Favors, Joe Johnson, David West, Tyson Chandler, Zach Randolph, Al Jefferson, Clint Capela, Jae Crowder, Tobias Harris and Gary Harris. I left a number of solid players off as well.

Yes we were talking about star players ... go back and look at my original reply to AtheJ415

Right now I would say Chriss and Bender are much, much closer to being complete busts than they are to being stars. It's still highly questionable whether they will even be "solid" players in the mold of any that you have listed above. What really chaps me is the fact that we need stars ... not solid players. Chasing these high draft picks is supposed to net us "stars", so Bender and Chriss are busts as far as I am concerned in terms of star potential.

We have exactly one star in Booker and one solid player in Warren. We need another star, period. People who think Chriss or Bender will become star players if we just give them more time are sitting on the "Len" train again. They should show it this year or it is very, very unlikely they will pan out for us as even a "solid" player.

This would be true of literally every 20 year old other than Lebron. My god.

[bigfoot]

Well we were not talking stars. We were talking whether or not Bender/Chriss are complete busts. Besides, the second lists has some you could consider stars such as Gobert, Butler, Hayward and Draymond Green and many other solid players some of which may have been (or will be) all stars in Ibaka, Noah, Millsap, DeAndre Jordan, Goran Dragic, Rondo, Korver, Batum, Aaron Gordon, Otto Porter, Derrick Favors, Joe Johnson, David West, Tyson Chandler, Zach Randolph, Al Jefferson, Clint Capela, Jae Crowder, Tobias Harris and Gary Harris. I left a number of solid players off as well.

Yes we were talking about star players ... go back and look at my original reply to AtheJ415

Right now I would say Chriss and Bender are much, much closer to being complete busts than they are to being stars. It's still highly questionable whether they will even be "solid" players in the mold of any that you have listed above. What really chaps me is the fact that we need stars ... not solid players. Chasing these high draft picks is supposed to net us "stars", so Bender and Chriss are busts as far as I am concerned in terms of star potential.

We have exactly one star in Booker and one solid player in Warren. We need another star, period. People who think Chriss or Bender will become star players if we just give them more time are sitting on the "Len" train again. They should show it this year or it is very, very unlikely they will pan out for us as even a "solid" player.

Well you twisted the conversation a bit. AtheJ was just saying that once they fill out they can play different positions and then Frank responded and you piggy backed with...

And once and once and once

Agreed Frank ... right now I suspect once is probably never coming with these two. Again, history shows that high quality players progress significantly in their second year. Len was a whiff, Chriss and Bender are looking to be too. Cross our fingers that Jackson pans out but he's gonna be behind TJ Warren.

Then AtheJ mentioned even no more than 3 or 4 stars currently in the league would probably have passed your judgement by year two.

So I guess in your next response you took it from "high quality players" to "stars" to come up with lists....

No one has been saying these guys are going to be stars. If that is your expectation for them I can see why you are disappointed. There are few stars in this league. Maybe a couple per draft on average. You're lucky if you get one.

The discussion about these two have been primarily about whether or not they will turn into solid nba players.

If you're arguing that they are not going to be stars, I don't think anyone will take the stance that they will be stars. There are very few guys who come into this league that it's clear they will be a star by year two. Usually a #1 pick like LeBron, AD, Blake, Towns. Some of them people expect like Wiggins don't really become stars.

I don't think anyone ever had the expectations of these guys being stars, or any of our draftees for that matter. Scratch that, I guess you did, which is why you seem to be disappointed.

People forget how hard it is to come by stars. The Warriors may have quite a few now but they didn't for a couple of decades. Most teams are very lucky to have one. We may have ourselves one in Booker. We just need a few pieces around him. If he becomes a star and we can add another star or two in addition to that it would be phenomenal, but it's pretty rare to have a few stars on one team.

Sure you have a few teams now where stars are joining together but those are mostly 10-15 year vets. The best way to have continuity with stars is to use your picks wisely and build through the draft, like the Warriors did, and the Thunder before that, and the Spurs have done for years.

Anyway, back to the point. If you were thinking "stars" in your argument with Bender and Chriss, that isn't what I was thinking. I was thinking about people giving up on them entirely, which is what I've read from a few people, so I showed how many solid players scored less than 12 or less than 9 on those lists, a number of them actually are/were stars actually.

Its fine to try and cherry pick on a conversation in part of a Trade, Free Agent, Draft thread that has been ongoing for basically seven years. The reality though is pro-tank posters argue that we need top five picks because that gives us the best chance of obtaining an all-star player. The numbers as I recall from previous posts in this long-drawn out thread are a 2 out 5 chance of getting an all-star player with a top 5 pick. This is the pro-tankers ammunition against anybody who wants to see the Suns win games, make trades to improve our team, or sign free agents!!

The same old broken record of wouldn't it be glorious to get a top-5 pick in this loaded "generational" draft so that we have a legitimate all-star is the mantra that has been going on for too damn long. But hey, we have a 40% chance of drafting an all-star. Yet now when our high-end draft picks show little "star" aptitude we are supposed to sit back and let them take three-to-four years to develop. Don't worry ... be happy!! It's plain and simple that I am calling hogwash on Chriss and Bender being star players and Len is just another example of the fallacy of top draft picks and tanking. I'll throw down winning and mediocre seasons fighting for the eight seed to obtaining the likes of Marion, Amare, Booker, Nash, Majerle, and Dragic against fugly losing seasons with picks that net us Len, Bender, Chriss, and Jackson any damn day of the week.

[AtheJ415]

There are also some damn good players on the list of players who scored below 12 ppg in their 2nd seasons. http://bkref.com/tiny/I93Ns

Malcolm Brogdon, one of the pined after players by the impatient ones on this board, averaged a whopping 6, 3, and 1 in COLLEGE at the same age as Chriss / Bender.

Still clueless and unwilling to look at the reality of the situation. Instead you grasp at air and throw another player into the mix as opposed to truly examining what sets apart star players in their first two NBA seasons (not college players dude). Your Trump-like obfuscation does not work on me.

I have literally forgotten more about statistics, particularly evaluative statistics, than you could ever even imagine to know. Production for age is the #1 determinant. It is not experience. By your logic, Mike James has a brighter future than Lonzo Ball and Markelle Fultz. Think about that for a second.

We've pointed out plenty in the past, like Jimmy Butler, but then you just sit there saying his team was better so his awul numbers don't count.

[bigfoot]

Well we were not talking stars. We were talking whether or not Bender/Chriss are complete busts. Besides, the second lists has soem you could consider stars such as Gobert, Butler, Hayward and Draymond Green and many other solid players some of which may have been (or will be) all stars in Ibaka, Noah, Millsap, DeAndre Jordan, Goran Dragic, Rondo, Korver, Batum, Aaron Gordon, Otto Porter, Derrick Favors, Joe Johnson, David West, Tyson Chandler, Zach Randolph, Al Jefferson, Clint Capela, Jae Crowder, Tobias Harris and Gary Harris. I left a number of solid players off as well.

Yes we were talking about star players ... go back and look at my original reply to AtheJ415

Right now I would say Chriss and Bender are much, much closer to being complete busts than they are to being stars. It's still highly questionable whether they will even be "solid" players in the mold of any that you have listed above. What really chaps me is the fact that we need stars ... not solid players. Chasing these high draft picks is supposed to net us "stars", so Bender and Chriss are busts as far as I am concerned in terms of star potential.

We have exactly one star in Booker and one solid player in Warren. We need another star, period. People who think Chriss or Bender will become star players if we just give them more time are sitting on the "Len" train again. They should show it this year or it is very, very unlikely they will pan out for us as even a "solid" player.

This would be true of literally every 20 year old other than Lebron. My god.

Again throw out one name ... Lebron who is a superstar. Here you go since you obviously don't want to do any research at all. A list for your perusal of about 25 star players who were 18-20 years old that scored at least 14 points per game and are still active in the league. Maybe one day you will look at it and understand. Chriss and Bender will never be at their level ... wait around as long as you want.

http://bkref.com/tiny/wMykH

[bigfoot]

Malcolm Brogdon, one of the pined after players by the impatient ones on this board, averaged a whopping 6, 3, and 1 in COLLEGE at the same age as Chriss / Bender.

Still clueless and unwilling to look at the reality of the situation. Instead you grasp at air and throw another player into the mix as opposed to truly examining what sets apart star players in their first two NBA seasons (not college players dude). Your Trump-like obfuscation does not work on me.

I have literally forgotten more about statistics, particularly evaluative statistics, than you could ever even imagine to know. Production for age is the #1 determinant. It is not experience. By your logic, Mike James has a brighter future than Lonzo Ball and Markelle Fultz. Think about that for a second.

We've pointed out plenty in the past, like Jimmy Butler, but then you just sit there saying his team was better so his awul numbers don't count.

You are now talking out your azz dude. I'll put my 60 hours of graduate level mathematics/statistics and 30+ years of experience working for NASA against any of your so called statistical expertise.

[bigfoot]

We've pointed out plenty in the past, like Jimmy Butler, but then you just sit there saying his team was better so his awul numbers don't count.

Again adding "we've" when in fact it is only you who tried to use Butler as example of what Chriss and Bender can be. I simply point out the anomalies of players like Leonard and Butler who were behind better vets and playoff bound teams as a reason for the delay in the scoring output. I think most logical people would agree that playing behind Duncan, Manu, and Parker is going to stunt your scoring numbers. Likewise for Butler. Somehow your tanking blinders are on and you can't see past anything but a top five pick that you hope turns out to be the Suns savior.

Repeatedly, I show you many players, which is statistically more significant, than the one or two odd players your throw out as your pathetic attempt at a counter-example. Your grasp of statistics must be much less than you imagine. You want to run some probabilities of being an all-star when you score > 9 points per game verus <9 on average your first two years. I can guarantee you the numbers would be devastating for the future of Bender.

My statistics right now show the Suns have 0% success rate with top-5 picks in terms of star players acquired in the last five years. Until you can counter that your words and posts about tanking are pretty damn empty.

[bwgood77]

Yes we were talking about star players ... go back and look at my original reply to AtheJ415

Right now I would say Chriss and Bender are much, much closer to being complete busts than they are to being stars. It's still highly questionable whether they will even be "solid" players in the mold of any that you have listed above. What really chaps me is the fact that we need stars ... not solid players. Chasing these high draft picks is supposed to net us "stars", so Bender and Chriss are busts as far as I am concerned in terms of star potential.

We have exactly one star in Booker and one solid player in Warren. We need another star, period. People who think Chriss or Bender will become star players if we just give them more time are sitting on the "Len" train again. They should show it this year or it is very, very unlikely they will pan out for us as even a "solid" player.

Well you twisted the conversation a bit. AtheJ was just saying that once they fill out they can play different positions and then Frank responded and you piggy backed with...

Agreed Frank ... right now I suspect once is probably never coming with these two. Again, history shows that high quality players progress significantly in their second year. Len was a whiff, Chriss and Bender are looking to be too. Cross our fingers that Jackson pans out but he's gonna be behind TJ Warren.

Then AtheJ mentioned even no more than 3 or 4 stars currently in the league would probably have passed your judgement by year two.

So I guess in your next response you took it from "high quality players" to "stars" to come up with lists....

No one has been saying these guys are going to be stars. If that is your expectation for them I can see why you are disappointed. There are few stars in this league. Maybe a couple per draft on average. You're lucky if you get one.

The discussion about these two have been primarily about whether or not they will turn into solid nba players.

If you're arguing that they are not going to be stars, I don't think anyone will take the stance that they will be stars. There are very few guys who come into this league that it's clear they will be a star by year two. Usually a #1 pick like LeBron, AD, Blake, Towns. Some of them people expect like Wiggins don't really become stars.

I don't think anyone ever had the expectations of these guys being stars, or any of our draftees for that matter. Scratch that, I guess you did, which is why you seem to be disappointed.

People forget how hard it is to come by stars. The Warriors may have quite a few now but they didn't for a couple of decades. Most teams are very lucky to have one. We may have ourselves one in Booker. We just need a few pieces around him. If he becomes a star and we can add another star or two in addition to that it would be phenomenal, but it's pretty rare to have a few stars on one team.

Sure you have a few teams now where stars are joining together but those are mostly 10-15 year vets. The best way to have continuity with stars is to use your picks wisely and build through the draft, like the Warriors did, and the Thunder before that, and the Spurs have done for years.

Anyway, back to the point. If you were thinking "stars" in your argument with Bender and Chriss, that isn't what I was thinking. I was thinking about people giving up on them entirely, which is what I've read from a few people, so I showed how many solid players scored less than 12 or less than 9 on those lists, a number of them actually are/were stars actually.

Its fine to try and cherry pick on a conversation in part of a Trade, Free Agent, Draft thread that has been ongoing for basically seven years. The reality though is pro-tank posters argue that we need top five picks because that gives us the best chance of obtaining an all-star player. The numbers as I recall from previous posts in this long-drawn out thread are a 2 out 5 chance of getting an all-star player with a top 5 pick. This is the pro-tankers ammunition against anybody who wants to see the Suns win games, make trades to improve our team, or sign free agents!!

The same old broken record of wouldn't it be glorious to get a top-5 pick in this loaded "generational" draft so that we have a legitimate all-star is the mantra that has been going on for too damn long. But hey, we have a 40% chance of drafting an all-star. Yet now when our high-end draft picks show little "star" aptitude we are supposed to sit back and let them take three-to-four years to develop. Don't worry ... be happy!! It's plain and simple that I am calling hogwash on Chriss and Bender being star players and Len is just another example of the fallacy of top draft picks and tanking. I'll throw down winning and mediocre seasons fighting for the eight seed to obtaining the likes of Marion, Amare, Booker, Nash, Majerle, and Dragic against fugly losing seasons with picks that net us Len, Bender, Chriss, and Jackson any damn day of the week.

I've certainly never thrown out something like a 40% chance if in top 5. It all mostly boils down to luck, wherever you pick, but obviously it's more common that higher picks end up being the better players.

As a Suns fan, the cupboard has never been bare up until about 5 years ago after Nash was traded, and for all real competitive intents and purposes, since Amare left. Under Colangelo, we never let our young player pool dry up in such a manner. We lost our foundation. We literally had nothing and had to start building a foundation with a new GM. It didn't matter what pick we had at the top of that Len draft considering the whole lottery pretty much was a bust. So that was a terrible year to start it.

Of course, despite that, the Bledsoe trade and the trade for Green/Plumlee along with Frye returning, we had a surprise year. We still plucked a couple of nice guys near the end of the lottery while winning 48 (and then 39 with a really injured and crazy year)..in getting TJ and Booker.

It's pretty early to judge the last two drafts. Most everyone outside of the top 3 of last year's draft isn't playing well, except Hield, a 4 year guy...and Sabonis.

I'm not a tanker (wanting to purposely lose games) but I do want us to build a foundation of young players so we have a base to grow from and not just keep throwing **** at a wall like we did the first couple of years by signing random guys (even if we were already set at that position) or trying to sign others or trading draft picks for "near" all stars in Brandon Knight. None of those trades or FA signings did much for us. It just kept us shuffling players in and out and being dysfunctional.

I just want a group of players to grow together that I can feel is a team that we add to each year.

[lilfishi22]

Still clueless and unwilling to look at the reality of the situation. Instead you grasp at air and throw another player into the mix as opposed to truly examining what sets apart star players in their first two NBA seasons (not college players dude). Your Trump-like obfuscation does not work on me.

I have literally forgotten more about statistics, particularly evaluative statistics, than you could ever even imagine to know. Production for age is the #1 determinant. It is not experience. By your logic, Mike James has a brighter future than Lonzo Ball and Markelle Fultz. Think about that for a second.

We've pointed out plenty in the past, like Jimmy Butler, but then you just sit there saying his team was better so his awul numbers don't count.

You are now talking out your azz dude. I'll put my 60 hours of graduate level mathematics/statistics and 30+ years of experience working for NASA against any of your so called statistical expertise.

Why you guys lying to the people about the "globe" when you know damn well it's flat !

[bigfoot]

Well you twisted the conversation a bit. AtheJ was just saying that once they fill out they can play different positions and then Frank responded and you piggy backed with...



Then AtheJ mentioned even no more than 3 or 4 stars currently in the league would probably have passed your judgement by year two.

So I guess in your next response you took it from "high quality players" to "stars" to come up with lists....

No one has been saying these guys are going to be stars. If that is your expectation for them I can see why you are disappointed. There are few stars in this league. Maybe a couple per draft on average. You're lucky if you get one.

The discussion about these two have been primarily about whether or not they will turn into solid nba players.

If you're arguing that they are not going to be stars, I don't think anyone will take the stance that they will be stars. There are very few guys who come into this league that it's clear they will be a star by year two. Usually a #1 pick like LeBron, AD, Blake, Towns. Some of them people expect like Wiggins don't really become stars.

I don't think anyone ever had the expectations of these guys being stars, or any of our draftees for that matter. Scratch that, I guess you did, which is why you seem to be disappointed.

People forget how hard it is to come by stars. The Warriors may have quite a few now but they didn't for a couple of decades. Most teams are very lucky to have one. We may have ourselves one in Booker. We just need a few pieces around him. If he becomes a star and we can add another star or two in addition to that it would be phenomenal, but it's pretty rare to have a few stars on one team.

Sure you have a few teams now where stars are joining together but those are mostly 10-15 year vets. The best way to have continuity with stars is to use your picks wisely and build through the draft, like the Warriors did, and the Thunder before that, and the Spurs have done for years.

Anyway, back to the point. If you were thinking "stars" in your argument with Bender and Chriss, that isn't what I was thinking. I was thinking about people giving up on them entirely, which is what I've read from a few people, so I showed how many solid players scored less than 12 or less than 9 on those lists, a number of them actually are/were stars actually.

Its fine to try and cherry pick on a conversation in part of a Trade, Free Agent, Draft thread that has been ongoing for basically seven years. The reality though is pro-tank posters argue that we need top five picks because that gives us the best chance of obtaining an all-star player. The numbers as I recall from previous posts in this long-drawn out thread are a 2 out 5 chance of getting an all-star player with a top 5 pick. This is the pro-tankers ammunition against anybody who wants to see the Suns win games, make trades to improve our team, or sign free agents!!

The same old broken record of wouldn't it be glorious to get a top-5 pick in this loaded "generational" draft so that we have a legitimate all-star is the mantra that has been going on for too damn long. But hey, we have a 40% chance of drafting an all-star. Yet now when our high-end draft picks show little "star" aptitude we are supposed to sit back and let them take three-to-four years to develop. Don't worry ... be happy!! It's plain and simple that I am calling hogwash on Chriss and Bender being star players and Len is just another example of the fallacy of top draft picks and tanking. I'll throw down winning and mediocre seasons fighting for the eight seed to obtaining the likes of Marion, Amare, Booker, Nash, Majerle, and Dragic against fugly losing seasons with picks that net us Len, Bender, Chriss, and Jackson any damn day of the week.

I've certainly never thrown out something like a 40% chance if in top 5. It all mostly boils down to luck, wherever you pick, but obviously it's more common that higher picks end up being the better players.

As a Suns fan, the cupboard has never been bare up until about 5 years ago after Nash was traded, and for all real competitive intents and purposes, since Amare left. Under Colangelo, we never let our young player pool dry up in such a manner. We lost our foundation. We literally had nothing and had to start building a foundation with a new GM. It didn't matter what pick we had at the top of that Len draft considering the whole lottery pretty much was a bust. So that was a terrible year to start it.

Of course, despite that, the Bledsoe trade and the trade for Green/Plumlee along with Frye returning, we had a surprise year. We still plucked a couple of nice guys near the end of the lottery while winning 48 (and then 39 with a really injured and crazy year)..in getting TJ and Booker.

It's pretty early to judge the last two drafts. Most everyone outside of the top 3 of last year's draft isn't playing well, except Hield, a 4 year guy...and Sabonis.

I'm not a tanker (wanting to purposely lose games) but I do want us to build a foundation of young players so we have a base to grow from and not just keep throwing **** at a wall like we did the first couple of years by signing random guys (even if we were already set at that position) or trying to sign others or trading draft picks for "near" all stars in Brandon Knight. None of those trades or FA signings did much for us. It just kept us shuffling players in and out and being dysfunctional.

I just want a group of players to grow together that I can feel is a team that we add to each year.

Sadly you got in the middle of a conversation between a pro-tanker and me. He has in fact made the argument repeatedly that our chances of getting an all-star player in the top 5 is the reason why we should tank and gives us a 40% chance. Then the repeated drivel about top college players who will be the Suns savior (if only we would give them 3-4 years).

Your post of players scoring less than 12 per game didn't help the situation because it gave the wrong impression that players like Harden didn't excel in their first two years.