NBA Draft and NCAA Basketball

[RaisingArizona]

Tra Holder is just filthy.

[Mulhollanddrive]

Trae Young is 6th in 2PT% and 4th in 3PT% on his team (100 minutes minimum).

Seems like an odd stat.

[In2ition]

Cleveland won when local lebron came out.
Chicago won when local rose came out.
Phoenix wins when local Bagley comes out?

You could almost argue that the Lakers won when they got the 2nd pick, as they avoided having to give up their pick that year, plus another in a couple years. Along with getting their homeboy that had mutual love in Ball.

Thanks god they missed on Simmons.
OH boy, I was 100% sure he was going to be a Laker.
Still do tbh.

I was talking about the 2017 draft, but I thought Simmons was going to go to the Lakers too. And he publicly said that he wanted to be a Laker.

[bwgood77]

But right now, Arizona State has the best résumé in the country -- and that's good enough for No. 1.

Previous: Preseason | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3


1. Arizona State Sun Devils
Record: 9-0
Last week: 13

It's a big jump, for sure. And the metrics don't love the Sun Devils like we love the Sun Devils. But we'll see. Arizona State should keep this ranking for at least another two weeks with its next three games at home. Then comes the Pac-12 opener -- at Arizona.


2. Villanova Wildcats
Record: 10-0
Last week: 4

The Wildcats might be the best program in college basketball over the past five years, and they seem poised for another 1-seed in March. Oddly enough, they don't play another home game until 2018 -- their next four are on the road.


3. Michigan State Spartans
Record: 9-1
Last week: 3

Tom Izzo's group doesn't move up in the rankings despite losses for the two teams ahead of it last week. Michigan State might be the most impressive team in the country so far this season, from opening night until now, especially defensively.


4. Duke Blue Devils
Record: 11-1
Last week: 1

Duke should probably drop further after a bad loss to Boston College, but the Blue Devils still have several wins not a lot of teams can match: vs. Michigan State, vs. Texas, vs. Florida. All three came on neutral courts.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/21732416/college-basketball-power-rankings-arizona-state-makes-big-big-move-no-1

I figured ASU would be a top ranked team in the country this year.

[bwgood77]

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[Damkac]

Looks like this board is much more excited for Ayton than for Bagley. Is hometown less important than where someone went to college for Americans? Or is it just because you think Ayton is better prospect/fits the team better?

Anyway I wouldn't get too excited for either of them or for Doncic because we all know Suns won't move into top3.

[bwgood77]

Looks like this board is much more excited for Ayton than for Bagley. Is hometown less important than where someone went to college for Americans? Or is it just because you think Ayton is better prospect/fits the team better?

Anyway I wouldn't get too excited for either of them or for Doncic because we all know Suns won't move into top3.

I was just looking at all boards with chances at the top pick and most all of them are highest on Doncic and Ayton. Marvin's problems are mainly that he's a tweener that will mostly have to play 4 but isn't a good 3 point shooter. He's also not a great defender.

It will depend on how he progresses on his shooting range and whether he improves on his interior defense, but he should still go top 3. But primary ball handlers and true Cs (especially with range and who dominate inside) are usually going to be more valuable than PFs, especially if the PF isn't much of a threat shooting with range or shot blocking/defending.

Check out where Cole Zwicker and company's new site has Bagley ranked...

https://www.thestepien.com/

[bwgood77]

Some tidbits from the Kaiser notes from the site (though these are a couple weeks old, so take that into account)...

1) Having seen several weeks of college basketball, Luka Doncic looks like the number one prospect. That doesn’t mean the number one pick. That could very well be Marvin Bagley or DeAndre Ayton, but rather the guy worth going number one. It’s not set in stone, but it’s looking even more like that now. However, there may be a player with even more spectacular numbers. That is, Trae Young.

2) Trae Young and Collin Sexton have so far looked as good or better than any point guard prospect from last year. I wouldn’t place either in the Chris Paul tier of no doubt about it freshman point gods, but their numbers so far are impressive. Young in particular, who is blowing the socks off several different point guard metrics I’ve formulated, each of which are named after the guard who inspired them:

(Chart you should check out)

The most important things here tend to be scoring efficiency, scoring volume, creating assists while limiting turnovers, and creating steals. That is, the aspects of the game that the best point guards tend to thrive at in college.

3) There are several negatives for Trae Young. He’s about the worst defensive player I can imagine for one. 4) The other issue that Young will potentially face has to do with his athletic makeup. He has amazingly fast hands and is very quick, especially with the ball, over small spaces, but isn’t especially fast and can’t jump, a problem we also saw with Jawun Evans. How many great NBA Point Guards couldn’t dunk in a college game? Isaiah Thomas could. Jameer Nelson could. Ty Lawson could. Even if it is was rare. The rare exception may be Steve Nash. And after watching Young three or four times, I’m not sure he can.

Marvin Bagley needs a lot of work and refinement. I have no idea if he’ll be able to learn what he needs to. I’m pretty sure that he’ll score efficiently and rebound the ball if put in a position to do so (pair him with good playmakers and let him play off of them on offense, though it’s also possible he progresses beyond that). A player can go a long way with his basic qualities, even if they don’t have tremendous skill. How refined Bagley becomes on defense, not offense, will likely affect just how valuable he becomes overall.

As of now, I like Marvin Bagley much better than DeAndre Ayton. Ayton has the better body, but it doesn’t mean anything if he’s not going to act as a rim protector and Ayton shows little to no aptitude there.

Michael Porter Jr.’s injury is potentially more serious than many people believe and the medicals will not answer all the questions. 80-95 percent of such surgeries are initially successful.

Jaren Jackson Jr. has by far the best defensive instincts of any of the heralded freshman bigs. Good feet at 6-foot-10 with a 7-foot-4 wingspan to boot. Yet, he’s also very skinny. It’s that thinness that concerns me, as I’m not positive that he’ll be able to anchor in the post in an effective way against the biggest NBA centers. Not only guys like DeMarcus Cousins or Joel Embiid. Marvin Bagley got him several times on the offensive glass in the short time they played against each other. And Bagley is slender.

Mikal Bridges is the best player in college basketball. He likely won’t win this accolade, but considering both offense and defensive contributions he does more than anyone else. He scores, rebounds, creates innumerable events and makes any number of “little things” plays that often result in wins. And make no mistake, every team he has been on has won, and he’s won virtually every game he has played. That doesn’t mean Bridges is the best pro prospect, as he’s a dependent offensive player, and not a dominant interior defender. However, he’s the best 3-and-D prospect since Shane Battier with both a better transition game and more projectable finishing at the rim than Battier had.

https://www.thestepien.com/2017/11/27/kaisers-draft-notes-2017-18-vol-1/

[Damkac]

Looks like this board is much more excited for Ayton than for Bagley. Is hometown less important than where someone went to college for Americans? Or is it just because you think Ayton is better prospect/fits the team better?

Anyway I wouldn't get too excited for either of them or for Doncic because we all know Suns won't move into top3.

I was just looking at all boards with chances at the top pick and most all of them are highest on Doncic and Ayton. Marvin's problems are mainly that he's a tweener that will mostly have to play 4 but isn't a good 3 point shooter. He's also not a great defender.

It will depend on how he progresses on his shooting range and whether he improves on his interior defense, but he should still go top 3. But primary ball handlers and true Cs (especially with range and who dominate inside) are usually going to be more valuable than PFs, especially if the PF isn't much of a threat shooting with range or shot blocking/defending.

Check out where Cole Zwicker and company's new site has Bagley ranked...

https://www.thestepien.com/

From what I heard Ayton is bad defender too. That's why I mentioned earlier that it may be better for Suns to not get top 3 pick and draft JJJ or Bamba. I think improving defense is much more important for Suns than improving offense. Hopefully one of JJ, Chriss, Bender or MIA pick can develop into 15+ppg scorer.

[bwgood77]

Looks like this board is much more excited for Ayton than for Bagley. Is hometown less important than where someone went to college for Americans? Or is it just because you think Ayton is better prospect/fits the team better?

Anyway I wouldn't get too excited for either of them or for Doncic because we all know Suns won't move into top3.

I was just looking at all boards with chances at the top pick and most all of them are highest on Doncic and Ayton. Marvin's problems are mainly that he's a tweener that will mostly have to play 4 but isn't a good 3 point shooter. He's also not a great defender.

It will depend on how he progresses on his shooting range and whether he improves on his interior defense, but he should still go top 3. But primary ball handlers and true Cs (especially with range and who dominate inside) are usually going to be more valuable than PFs, especially if the PF isn't much of a threat shooting with range or shot blocking/defending.

Check out where Cole Zwicker and company's new site has Bagley ranked...

https://www.thestepien.com/

From what I heard Ayton is bad defender too. That's why I mentioned earlier that it may be better for Suns to not get top 3 pick and draft JJJ or Bamba. I think improving defense is much more important for Suns than improving offense. Hopefully one of JJ, Chriss, Bender or MIA pick can develop into 15+ppg scorer.

Best case scenario would be get 1 and 8 and pick Doncic and have JJJ slip to 8. A Doncic/Booker backcourt would be absolutely sick. They can both handle the ball as primary or play off ball and both can take over a game and have an all around offensive impact.

At 6'7", Doncic handles the ball like a guard, but he separates himself with vision, passing instincts and decision-making that frequently show, though mostly in ball-screen situations. A natural facilitator, he takes the right steps at the right speeds to manipulate the defense before threading the needle or lofting a touch entry to the roll man.

Shooting is the other big selling point for Doncic, who's gradually become more threatening by the year. After knocking down 76 total threes in 80 games and making 80.8 percent of his free throws in 2016-17, Doncic has hit 17 triples through seven EuroBasket contests, showing tremendous confidence and versatility with his shot-making.It's both impossible and silly to label Doncic with a position.

He'll often bring the ball up and initiate the offense, tapping into his playmaking IQ. But he's just as comfortable spotting up around the arc and playing the 2 or 3 as a ball-mover, shooter or cutter.

We've seen promising defensive quickness around the perimeter and a standout nose for the ball under the boards, where he hunts down opposing teams' misses and quickly looks to turn around and push the break. Doncic's 7.7 rebounds per game at EuroBasket rank No. 6, a smidge more than Pau Gasol and 0.4 more than Marc Gasol at No. 8.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2732792-nba-exec-says-luka-doncic-leap-years-above-anyone-after-eurobasket-brilliance

Then we get a big to protect the rim.

That being said, I certainly won't complain if we get Ayton or any other top 5 guy. Ayton will likely be an offensive stud, and certainly has the tools to play D. But yeah, a non defensive big and then having to take a PG in the late lotto (likely one that can't play D).

Of course we likely only have a chance at either with some luck in the lotto drawing.

[kennydorglas]

Bagley and Ayton are dangerously close to be unplayable on defense.
This draft seems to be very offensive-minded

[Mulhollanddrive]

You can take offense or defense but not both:

Offense - Doncic, Bagley, Ayton, Porter
Defense - Bamba, Jackson

Whoever develops on the other side the most is a good chance to end up the best player.

[RedIndian]

Wendell Carter is still in my opinion the most well-rounded player in the draft. He won't be a superstar, but I can see him being a borderline all-star type player in the league for years.

With the number of young projects on our roster (Chriss, Jackson, Bender), I would prefer picking him at 6-8 as opposed to another high upside but raw player like Jackson or Bamba. We really need some players who can come in and contribute straight away.

[kennydorglas]

I'm trying to identify early some very skilled scorers in the NCAA.
Basically i'm looking for great 3pt shooters (volume/fg%/shot creation aka unassisted 3's), volume scorers (high FGA/FG%) and knack for drawing fouls (high FTA/good FT%)... only using their stats against decent opponents (.500+).

This is what I got from last drafts:

2011 - Kyrie Irving/Jimmer Fredette/Kemba Walker/Alec Burks/Klay Thompson/John Holland/Nolan Smith/Charles Jenkins/Tobias Harris/Derrick Williams/Marcus Morris/Markieff Morris

2012 - Damian Lillard/John Jenkins/Kevin Murphy/Orlando Johnson/Harrison Barnes/Eric Griffin/Jared Sullinger

2013 - Otto Porter/CJ McCollum/Pierre Jackson/Isaiah Canaan/Ben McLemore

2014 - Gary Harris/Jabari Parker/Doug McDermott

2015 - Oliver Hanlan/Devin Booker/Tyler Harvey/Joe Young

2016 - Buddy Hield/Malcolm Brogdon/Kay Felder/Yogi Ferrell

2017 - Jawun Evans/Derrick White/Frank Mason/Malik Monk/Luke Kennard/Jayson Tatum/Dillon Brooks/Semi Ojeleye/Tyler Cavanaugh/Zach Collins/Alec Peters

It's very early for some of those FROSHS, but the rest of the list seems like a good bet to stay here in 2018:

Marvin Bagley III PF/C (Duke) FROSH
Yante Maten PF (Georgia) SENIOR
Mike Daum PF (South Dakota St.) SENIOR
Josh Okogie SG/SF (GeorgiaTech) SOPH
Anthony Lamb SF/PF (Vermont) SOPH
David Jenkins PG/SG (South Dakota St.) FROSH
Justin Wright-Foreman PG/SG (Hofstra) JUNIOR
Nick Hopkins PG/SG (Belmont) FROSH
Allonzo Trier SG (Arizona) JUNIOR
Trevon Bluiett SG (Xavier) SENIOR
McKinley Wright PG (Colorado) FROSH
Markus Howard PG (Marquette) SOPH
Trae Young PG (Oklahoma) FROSH
Chris Clemons PG (Campbell) JUNIOR
Tremont Walters PG (LSU) FROSH
Bryant Crawford PG (Wake Forest) JUNIOR
Jalen Brunson PG (Villanova) JUNIOR
Daryl Macon PG/SG (Arkansas) SENIOR
Thomas Wilder PG (Western Michigan) SENIOR

PS: Sexton's FG (40%) kept him out of this... he's very close tho (great 3pt and elite at drawing fouls)

[jcsunsfan]

Good grief this Suns team needs more decent shooters, and we leave Peters down in gleague.


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[bwgood77]

Ayton puts up great numbers, but this is my fear with him...

viewtopic.php?f=25&t=1647482

He has had great scoring/rebounding games... https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/v/vucevni01/gamelog/2018

[Damkac]

I'm feared of Ayton as well. Anyway Ben Simmons was criticized for very similar things and he is playing awesome so who knows. But I would be calmer if Suns would pick somebody else.

Anyone awailable with MIA pick who would fit well with Booker in the backcourt? Somebody who is good defender and can guard PG and SG, can play with ball if needed but isn't too ball dominant, has reliable shoot and solid bbiq?

[Mulhollanddrive]

Bruce Brown is close to the Ntilikina / Brogdon type.

6-5, combo guard now PG, 40% from 3, 3:1 assist to TO ratio, 1 steal per game, 6+ rebounds per game, 11 ppg efficient secondary scorer.

[baldur]

so you can have possibly three top 11 picks in this draft? is that correct? but i think milwaukee pick is unlikely conveying this season.

[Wilber85]

Good grief this Suns team needs more decent shooters, and we leave Peters down in gleague.


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I am surprised Peters is even in the Dleague. Dude is horrible