Offseason, 2017-2018

[MavCarter]

Just give in Blue Jays .

Shapiro needs to sell false hope so he can renovate the stadium and spring training facility. Would take a miracle for them to give in and trade him

[Davey0]

Just give in Blue Jays .

Shapiro needs to sell false hope so he can renovate the stadium and spring training facility. Would take a miracle for them to give in and trade him

Good point. Not to get off track but, any updates on the renovations on the Rogers Center? I heard updates/plans to be unfolded half way threw the year but yet nothing ? I guess the update/rumors of the RC changed that plot ?

[flatjacket1]

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Will say it again:

There seems to be a disconnect between external scouting services and actual player value.... low minors guys aren't worth a ton in the trade market.

[Schad]

A serious citation needed on that one. Sonny Gray was traded for three players, the two centerpieces of which were in A ball. Gray's value was at least as high as Ozuna's, and neither Mateo or Kaprielian are as highly regarded as Bichette and Guerrero. Nor was there any belief that the A's got ripped off.

[MavCarter]

Just give in Blue Jays .

Shapiro needs to sell false hope so he can renovate the stadium and spring training facility. Would take a miracle for them to give in and trade him

Good point. Not to get off track but, any updates on the renovations on the Rogers Center? I heard updates/plans to be unfolded half way threw the year but yet nothing ? I guess the update/rumors of the RC changed that plot ?

Shapiro spoke about it yesterday on the radio, said he presented a plan to rogers and he's waiting on an approval. I would guess rogers is putting it on hold until they come to a final decision on whether they're selling or not

[MavCarter]

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Will say it again:

There seems to be a disconnect between external scouting services and actual player value.... low minors guys aren't worth a ton in the trade market.

FWIW blair said he spoke to a marlins guy this morning and he denied the report. He got the indication that they asked for bo but not both

[polo007]

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[flatjacket1]

A serious citation needed on that one. Sonny Gray was traded for three players, the two centerpieces of which were in A ball. Gray's value was at least as high as Ozuna's, and neither Mateo or Kaprielian are as highly regarded as Bichette and Guerrero. Nor was there any belief that the A's got ripped off.

Ozuna got one A ball guy, who had a 2.57 ERA in 14 starts. The other rose to AAA, while combining for a 2.93 ERA with 91 innings in AA or AAA. Also, only 21 years old. . Also, an OF who hit .270 in AA as a 21 year old with a brief ML debut hitting .317 in 64 at bats.

Gray got a 22 year old OF in AAA hitting .293/.329/.542. Aaron Judge at 24 years old had a lower slugging percentage in AAA than 22 year old Dustin Fowler. They also got a 22 year short stop hitting .300/.381/.525 in AA that year. He was ranked #85 in baseball that year, and #26 the year before but such a hot start had him closer to his pre-16 value. And one pitcher from high-A, with a 1.5 ERA, 0.611 WHIP, and 11K/9. Also ranked near #50 pre-17 as well.

There was one true low minors guy there. I'm not saying Bo and Vlad aren't worth anything, they are as good as low minors prospects come. I am just saying they don't fetch much on the trade market.

[Schad]

Gray got a 22 year old OF in AAA hitting .293/.329/.542. Aaron Judge at 24 years old had a lower slugging percentage in AAA than 22 year old Dustin Fowler. They also got a 22 year short stop hitting .300/.381/.525 in AA that year. He was ranked #85 in baseball that year, and #26 the year before but such a hot start had him closer to his pre-16 value. And one pitcher from high-A, with a 1.5 ERA, 0.611 WHIP, and 11K/9. Also ranked near #50 pre-17 as well.

There was one true low minors guy there. I'm not saying Bo and Vlad aren't worth anything, they are as good as low minors prospects come. I am just saying they don't fetch much on the trade market.

Dustin Fowler was by no means a headliner in that trade. For one thing, he was a month removed from major surgery on his knee which will keep him out for a year or therabouts.

Mateo had a grand total of 140 PAs in AA when traded.

C'mon. That 140 PAs wasn't the difference between "not worth a ton" and "highly valuable". They were well-regarded trading chips because they were well-regarded trading chips, and had Mateo been mashing in A+ instead at the time, they'd have still made that trade. Teams certainly lend greater weight to prospects closer to the majors, but that's already taken into account with prospect rankings: if Bichette and Guerrero were in AAA doing what they have to date, they'd probably be the consensus best and second-best prospects in baseball.

[polo007]

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Speaking in general terms, Atkins said the Blue Jays were pleased with the volume of trade talks at Disney’s Swan and Dolphin Hotel.

“There was a lot of discussion in and around our opportunities with other teams,” he said.

That’s where the Blue Jays’ pitching depth could intersect with the club’s off-season decision making. Not only are the Blue Jays’ middle relievers effective, they’re affordable to all 30 teams. Ryan Tepera and Danny Barnes aren’t yet arbitration eligible while Dominic Leone shouldn’t cost more than $2 million in his first trip through the arb process. By way of contrast, the going rate for capable bullpen arms has been $14-18 million over two years. In that context, it’s no wonder the Blue Jays have been asked about their relievers. Those talks could create momentum this off-season, even though the Blue Jays haven’t heard an offer to their liking just yet.

It’d be a surprise if Biagini’s name hasn’t come up as well given his successful 2016 season, flashes of promise in 2017, MLB minimum salary and remaining options. That said, he’s appealing to the Blue Jays for those same reasons. Biagini’s now their fifth starter, so they couldn’t deal him unless they were confident that a deal for a suitable replacement existed.

One way or another, the Blue Jays’ willingness to deal pitching off of their MLB roster could help them in a developing middle-infield market. Now that Ian Kinsler’s in Anaheim, there’s one less team in the mix for infielders, which could help the Blue Jays and Mets, two of the more active teams involved. (By the way, the Blue Jays aren’t believed to have pursued Kinsler seriously, although he was on their radar.)

The Brewers’ Jonathan Villar remains available in trade talks, as does Freddy Galvis of the Phillies. If the Blue Jays were to aim higher they could pursue Philadelphia’s Cesar Hernandez, but he’ll be much tougher to acquire given that he’s an impact player with three years of control remaining. Jurickson Profar, while interesting on paper, doesn’t appear to be a likely fit in Toronto. There’s still plenty of depth, though, with Josh Harrison, Starlin Castro, Jason Kipnis, Yangervis Solarte and Chris Owings among the other trade candidates in play across MLB.

Of course that’s just one of many needs for a Blue Jays front office also seeking outfield and pitching help, and moving pitching depth would be just one way to entice rival teams. For example, Atkins has also pointed to Toronto’s controllable outfield depth on multiple occasions.

[polo007]

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[flatjacket1]

Dustin Fowler was by no means a headliner in that trade. For one thing, he was a month removed from major surgery on his knee which will keep him out for a year or therabouts.

Mateo had a grand total of 140 PAs in AA when traded.

C'mon. That 140 PAs wasn't the difference between "not worth a ton" and "highly valuable". They were well-regarded trading chips because they were well-regarded trading chips, and had Mateo been mashing in A+ instead at the time, they'd have still made that trade. Teams certainly lend greater weight to prospects closer to the majors, but that's already taken into account with prospect rankings: if Bichette and Guerrero were in AAA doing what they have to date, they'd probably be the consensus best and second-best prospects in baseball.

You just called all of them A ball players, and I showed you that only one was still A ball. Now you are saying that hitting .300 and showing strides with the stick in 140 PA after a down year had him near the bottom of the top 100 doesn't equate to an increase in trade. So yeah I disagree with that as well, but that's a different argument. Scouts don't use game logs to evaluate athletes, they look at current ability. He showed way more power in 2017 in those 140 PA in AA than he did the year before. He averaged over two total bases per game played at the highest level of his life, cut down on his swing and seemed to keep his hands inside the ball. Cashman called him "untradable" in 2016, before this outburst.

Which rating are you referencing? I feel like you believe there is 1 rating site and it's BA. They are arguably the least reputable, and grade heavily on tools so competition level and such factor is much less. Vlad was left off of BP's list pre-season and was ranked as low as 48th on other lists. I don't believe any lists (including BA) truly "factors" for proximity to Majors, if you find a script somewhere that says they evaluate that I'd like to see it. Sure they focus more on high minors but I have yet to see them adjust rankings based on level, nor should they. Scouting services don't project trade value, they evaluate players. The ongoing joke at my work was "If you put Michael Phelps in RK ball they'd call him a future all-star". They are the "big and strong" scouting service.

You are judging previous trades with a biased agenda, you didn't glance at their player pages for any reason other than to see if you can justify calling them "A ball players". You will continue to see it that way regardless of what actually happens assuming you keep trying to justify your views rather than test them. If you were going by "the bulk of where they played" or "where they were when they were traded", you would have had at least a couple big prospects outside the A ball range. Even citing "major knee surgery" as a reason for reducing value for trading for an arm struggling with shoulder issues all year seems flawed.

I am still not saying Vlad is bad, or Bo is bad, or either are bad, or both are bad. I'm saying low minors don't carry real weight in the trade market. I still remember when Noah Syndergaard and d'Arnaud were low minors and they were the lowest ranked prospects of the 5 player package the A's requested for Gio Gonzales. I keep providing examples but you stretch your argument and perceive it as you want to. I can't convince you, so agree to disagree on that.

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[polo007]

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TORONTO – Even after the St. Louis Cardinals addressed their need for a big bat with the addition of Marcell Ozuna, the Josh Donaldson rumours persist.

And while it’s presumably possible that someone will make an offer strong enough to pry the 2015 AL MVP away from the Blue Jays, it’s also worth remembering that the Toronto front office remains open-minded on players as a matter of policy. Best-case scenario, you hear an unexpectedly appealing offer. Worst-case, you’ve spent some energy on a potential deal that will never happen.

All across baseball, the days of placing players completely off-limits appear to be over.

“You just hear less of that these days,” GM Ross Atkins said, speaking in general terms at the Winter Meetings. “We want to build the best environment and the best team and organization possible and part of that oftentimes means listening on players that would be extremely difficult to move.”

Aside from Donaldson, Marcus Stroman would be among the players with the most trade value on the major-league roster. On the minor-league side, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette rank among the game’s top prospects. It’d be a huge surprise if any of those three players were traded, and yet Atkins doesn’t believe in closing off possibilities completely.

“There really aren’t as many untouchables,” Atkins said. Instead, “there are some we would really prefer to hold onto.”
It’s now easier to start a productive conversation because executives around baseball have a shared understanding of how to value players.

“Not just their offence, not just their defence, not just their baserunning, but all of it together,” Atkins said. “Understanding durability better, understanding prospect value better. What that does is it creates more discussion in and around all assets."

“The other part of it is the emphasis placed on young, controllable talent has heightened so therefore understanding it has heightened, so therefore people are more willing to talk.”

[North_of_Border]

I am still not saying Vlad is bad, or Bo is bad, or either are bad, or both are bad. I'm saying low minors don't carry real weight in the trade market. I still remember when Noah Syndergaard and d'Arnaud were low minors and they were the lowest ranked prospects of the 5 player package the A's requested for Gio Gonzales.

D’Arnaud was a sweetener in the Halladay trade. Syndergaard was a high school, low numbere draft pick the Jays took a chance on. They were not top prospects. That’s why the lowest ranked prospects out of that package like you said.

Vlad is likely #1 prospect in the MLB next season and Bo is in the mix for a an elite number too. They are proven and valued.

You can’t compare the current Vlad and Bo to early years if Syndergaard and D’Arnaud.

[Schad]

You just called all of them A ball players, and I showed you that only one was still A ball. Now you are saying that hitting .300 and showing strides with the stick in 140 PA after a down year had him near the bottom of the top 100 doesn't equate to an increase in trade. So yeah I disagree with that as well, but that's a different argument. Scouts don't use game logs to evaluate athletes, they look at current ability. He showed way more power in 2017 in those 140 PA in AA than he did the year before. He averaged over two total bases per game played at the highest level of his life, cut down on his swing and seemed to keep his hands inside the ball. Cashman called him "untradable" in 2016, before this outburst.

140 PAs with a BABIP of .380 wasn't what made Mateo a highly desirable asset. He'd been a highly desirable asset for some time.

The reason Mateo was "untradeable"? Because he was valuable! Cashman was stating that he, along with Bird, Sanchez and Judge, were off-limits. Then something changed that made him expendable: the Yankees received a premium prospect in trade for a premium reliever. Who was also in A ball at the time, because prospects in A ball headline major trades all the damned time.

Which rating are you referencing? I feel like you believe there is 1 rating site and it's BA. They are arguably the least reputable, and grade heavily on tools so competition level and such factor is much less. Vlad was left off of BP's list pre-season and was ranked as low as 48th on other lists. I don't believe any lists (including BA) truly "factors" for proximity to Majors, if you find a script somewhere that says they evaluate that I'd like to see it. Sure they focus more on high minors but I have yet to see them adjust rankings based on level, nor should they. Scouting services don't project trade value, they evaluate players. The ongoing joke at my work was "If you put Michael Phelps in RK ball they'd call him a future all-star". They are the "big and strong" scouting service.

I feel like you know that this is complete nonsense, because you have been on this board for long enough to have seen me reference MLB's rankings (which I tend to use far more than BA), Sickels at Minor League Ball (who I tend to trust the most), and Longenhagen at Fangraphs (more recently). I don't use BA very often at all, actually; I post their rankings when they come out, and that's about it.

You are judging previous trades with a biased agenda, you didn't glance at their player pages for any reason other than to see if you can justify calling them "A ball players". You will continue to see it that way regardless of what actually happens assuming you keep trying to justify your views rather than test them. If you were going by "the bulk of where they played" or "where they were when they were traded", you would have had at least a couple big prospects outside the A ball range. Even citing "major knee surgery" as a reason for reducing value for trading for an arm struggling with shoulder issues all year seems flawed.

Huh? Like, he ruptured his PCL a month before. It was bad enough that he was evacuated by ambulance for emergency surgery that very night. Save the scare quotes; that's the very definition of major knee surgery.

I am still not saying Vlad is bad, or Bo is bad, or either are bad, or both are bad. I'm saying low minors don't carry real weight in the trade market. I still remember when Noah Syndergaard and d'Arnaud were low minors and they were the lowest ranked prospects of the 5 player package the A's requested for Gio Gonzales. I keep providing examples but you stretch your argument and perceive it as you want to. I can't convince you, so agree to disagree on that.

Yeah. I could easily post a bunch more trades where guys with little to no experience in the upper minors were the centerpiece in major trades. Like the trade that brought back Donaldson himself, which doesn't happen unless we include a coveted prospect who hadn't even reached full-season ball at the time.

[polo007]

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[flatjacket1]

I feel like you know that this is complete nonsense, because you have been on this board for long enough to have seen me reference MLB's rankings (which I tend to use far more than BA), Sickels at Minor League Ball (who I tend to trust the most), and Longenhagen at Fangraphs (more recently). I don't use BA very often at all, actually; I post their rankings when they come out, and that's about it.

Stop saying Vlad is a coin toss on player value with Yoan Moncada then.

Sickels had Vlad 42nd and Yoan #2, Longenhagen had Vlad 24th and Yoan #2, MLB I can't seem to find the pre-17 but the post-16 had Yoan #1 and Vlad outside the top 100.

BA is the only list with Vlad #2. Yoan is still #1.

Anyways like I said I don't think we are going to agree on this at all. Vlad is a great prospect to have and we aren't going to trade him anyways, but I don't believe he is actually worth a significant amount on the trade market.

[trwi7]

Stop saying Vlad is a coin toss on player value with Yoan Moncada then.

Sickels had Vlad 42nd and Yoan #2, Longenhagen had Vlad 24th and Yoan #2, MLB I can't seem to find the pre-17 but the post-16 had Yoan #1 and Vlad outside the top 100.

Keith Law had Vlad as the #8 prospect in his midseason top 50 update in July and had Moncada 13th.

[Wo1verine]

Stop saying Vlad is a coin toss on player value with Yoan Moncada then.

Sickels had Vlad 42nd and Yoan #2, Longenhagen had Vlad 24th and Yoan #2, MLB I can't seem to find the pre-17 but the post-16 had Yoan #1 and Vlad outside the top 100.

Keith Law had Vlad as the #8 prospect in his midseason top 50 update in July and had Moncada 13th.

Wo1verine just released his rankings last month and he has Vlad Jr listed #1 prospect and he's much more reliable over all those guys mentioned.