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OT: Investing - Stocks/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Crypto

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Re: OT: Investing 

Post#21 » by midranger » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:57 am

MartyConlonOnTheRun wrote:
midranger wrote:
MartyConlonOnTheRun wrote:Think it's going to drop? I put in $200 earlier in the year and turned into $1,200 in my wallet. I thought for sure it topped out at 10k and would've sold if I had serious money but kept it in there for S&Gs. Not it's flirting with 20k. Who the hell knows? I think there is a long-term place for bitcoin, but not in my wildest dreams did i think it would hit this high. It will either keep going up, plateau, or go down. That's for sure.

Asymptotic growth is not a sustainable trend.

Are you saying bitcoin getting returns of 100% weekly is not sustainable? Of course not, I think everyone would agree with that. But you didn't really answer my question.

There are two questions when 'investing' in bitcoin:
1. When will the huge growth stop?
2. Will it plummet or just level out?


The answer to those questions is no one knows.

It's obviously a speculative bubble though. I think when it pops, it'll crash. There is no intrinsic value in it and it's not backed by an asset. It's price is too volatile (currently) to even use it as a currency as intended. Tulip bulbs and such.
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Re: OT: Investing 

Post#22 » by feldm093 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:07 am

midranger wrote:
feldm093 wrote:I'm just starting out in the world of investing having finished undergrad in 2016 and starting the first "real" job a few months later.

The issue I'm coming up against is understanding where to even begin. I've got pretty onerous student loan payments to be made every month which soak up a good chunk of my income, and I contribute double-digit percentage to my company 401k while also trying to build up a little nest-egg of savings.

Should I be looking to continue to lean out non-essentially expenses even more than I've already got them and then put that extra money into another investing vehicle?

I'll be curious to read along as the discussion evolves. Definitely want to get a big jump-start on saving and would like to make the right early decisions.

Get disability insurance if you don't have it. Get term life insurance if you need it (i.e. people dependent on your income), because that will only get more expensive. Don't buy permanent life insurance, ever. No, really. Never. Refinance your student loans. Try to scare up 5.5k to fund a Roth IRA.


I agree that refinancing the student loans is a next step, but it also appears that if I refinance, I lose the ability to put payments on-hold if/when I decide to go to grad school (hopefully in the near-future). Reducing 10+ separate outstanding loans into one would be a big help, though, if only for keeping track of it, not to mention some of the rates on the loans.

Finding 5.5k to toss into a Roth IRA would be difficult, to say the least. Would you (or others) advise tossing whatever I can in it regardless? Once I reach a certain amount of savings, I'd like to move the money I was putting in there into something like a Roth IRA.

Appreciate the advice either way. The range of opinions on what to do and what not to do is fascinating and always keeps me guessing.
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Re: OT: Investing 

Post#23 » by midranger » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:27 am

Roth is good if your assumption is your salary (and corresponding tax bracket) will go up in the future. It can be more useful than 401k to someone starting out, excepting many companies offer a match which you should take advantage of if it applies to you.

Obviously, these tax advantaged plans tie your money up until retirement, so they don't help you save for a down payment, or a car, or a trip, or whatever.

With regards to the loans, there are some potential disadvantages to refinancing, as you seem well aware. The urgency to pay them down probably depends on what the rate is. If they're at 6.8%, tossing extra money at them garauntees you a 6.8% return. Try finding that somewhere else.
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Re: OT: Investing 

Post#24 » by MickeyDavis » Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:13 am

Roth only ties up your earnings. Not your contributions.
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Re: OT: Investing 

Post#25 » by skones » Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:22 am

midranger wrote:
SupremeHustle wrote:Just tell me what to short so I can do it.

Bitcoin.


If you're going to short anything, there are a number of super cheap cryptocurrencies that are far more lucrative than BitCoin. There are 11, for example, that have shown 20% plus gains int he last 24 hours. Tron for example has gone from half a cent to nearly 4 cents a share in the last 5 days. You're playing with fire, but there's such a variety of options that are experiencing substantial short term gains with this boom, that overall returns with diversification are a likelihood.
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Re: OT: Investing 

Post#26 » by Pachinko_ » Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:24 am

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Re: OT: Investing 

Post#27 » by BucksFanSD » Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:31 am

We are actually overdue for a correction. That said, there is nothing screaming that a correction within the next 18 months is looming and the new tax plan should be good for most of the country.
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Re: OT: Investing 

Post#28 » by sidney lanier » Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:43 am

midranger wrote:I'm not much for market timing, but.... I agree that there has to be a correction on the not so distant horizon.

I've exhausted all the tax advantaged stuff I can and would like to start a taxable account, but I don't want to plunk a wad of cash in the market two weeks before a 20% correction.

Not an individual stock guy. More like low fee index funds. I figured with bank interest rates going up, maybe crowdfunded real estate loans would be more appealing, but I have no experience with them.

I agree it's a mistake to try to time the market, but if you're a buy-and-hold guy, buying on weakness seems like a logical way to approach things. I don't like index funds, although I understand the advantages, mainly because to me they're a little boring. Besides, these days, maybe because of funds, automated trading, and other things, it seems like everything moves in lock step, so if you've got a reasonably diverse self-selected portfolio your little boat rises with the rising tide and you still have some fun researching and rooting for individual stocks.

Also, you can stick with things you know from your job or in other ways and test your predictions without too much risk. For example, I have a possibly irrational belief in the future of graphene, so I've invested in a couple of companies that hold patents or figure to be players if they ever work out the kinks, even though there's no money in it now and likely will not be for at least a decade. Which forces me to assess their financials and business models in the areas where they are doing business, which kind of broadens my horizons and reveals other opportunities. Maybe I'm unusual in this regard, but I enjoy going to sec.gov and reading the 10-Ks and doing other basic research.
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Re: OT: Investing 

Post#29 » by MartyConlonOnTheRun » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:48 am

midranger wrote:Roth is good if your assumption is your salary (and corresponding tax bracket) will go up in the future. It can be more useful than 401k to someone starting out, excepting many companies offer a match which you should take advantage of if it applies to you.

Obviously, these tax advantaged plans tie your money up until retirement, so they don't help you save for a down payment, or a car, or a trip, or whatever.

With regards to the loans, there are some potential disadvantages to refinancing, as you seem well aware. The urgency to pay them down probably depends on what the rate is. If they're at 6.8%, tossing extra money at them garauntees you a 6.8% return. Try finding that somewhere else.

Assuming you meant tax advantaged as ones being currently tax deductible versus all kinds of tax advantaged plan because as md pointed out you can remove contributions from Roth IRA. That said, a married couple can take 20k from the traditional IRA without penalty for a down payment.
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Re: OT: Investing 

Post#30 » by MartyConlonOnTheRun » Mon Dec 18, 2017 12:44 pm

feldm093 wrote:I'm just starting out in the world of investing having finished undergrad in 2016 and starting the first "real" job a few months later.

The issue I'm coming up against is understanding where to even begin. I've got pretty onerous student loan payments to be made every month which soak up a good chunk of my income, and I contribute double-digit percentage to my company 401k while also trying to build up a little nest-egg of savings.

Should I be looking to continue to lean out non-essentially expenses even more than I've already got them and then put that extra money into another investing vehicle?


I'll be curious to read along as the discussion evolves. Definitely want to get a big jump-start on saving and would like to make the right early decisions.

The answer to the bolded part is yes 90% of the time when looking at it from a financial standpoint. Do I need nice gym membership? No. My kitchen is outdated by 30 years, should i upgrade it? No. The older (only 29) I get the more I try to live without the luxuries and down size. You have to live your life, but just recognize you are trading money you could invest for simple luxuries now.

If you are starting out, here is a good overview on how you should invest your money. It is pretty conservative since it focuses on paying down debt, versus essentially using it as a loan to invest (when you decide against not paying it down). IMHO, you should already be past step 6 before you look into any investing that requires you to research (thus probably more risk). If you are doing that, you are pointing in close to $30k a year between 401k/Company Match/IRA/HSA Just ride the low-cost index wave and max out for 20-25 years and you will have more than enough to retire.
WHAT
0. Establish an emergency fund to your satisfaction
1. Contribute to your 401k up to any company match
2. Pay off any debts with interest rates ~5% or more above the 10-year Treasury note yield.
3. Max HSA
4. Max Traditional IRA or Roth (or backdoor Roth) based on income level
5. Max 401k (if 401k fees are lower than available in an IRA, or if you need the 401k deduction to be eligible for a tIRA, swap #4 and #5)
6. Fund a mega backdoor Roth if applicable.
7. Pay off any debts with interest rates ~3% or more above the 10-year Treasury note yield.
8. Invest in a taxable account with any extra.

WHY
0. Give yourself at least enough buffer to avoid worries about bouncing checks
1. Company match rates are likely the highest percent return you can get on your money
2. When the guaranteed return is this high, take it.
3. HSA funds are totally tax free when used for medical expenses, making the HSA better than either traditional or Roth IRAs for that purpose.
At worst, the HSA behaves much the same as a tIRA after age 65.
4. Rule of thumb: traditional if current federal marginal rate is 25%; Roth if 10% or lower, or if MAGI is too high to deduct a traditional IRA; flip a coin otherwise.
See Credits can make Traditional better than Roth for lower incomes and other posts in that thread about some exceptions to the rule.
See Traditional versus Roth - Bogleheads for even more details and exceptions. State tax (or lack thereof) should also be considered.
The 'Calculations' tab in the Case Study Spreadsheet can show marginal rates for savings or withdrawals*.
5. See #4 for choice of traditional or Roth for 401k. In a 401k there are no income-based limits for deductions or contributions.
6. Applicability depends on the rules for the specific 401k
7. Again, take the risk-free return if high enough. Note that embedded in "high enough" is the assumption that your alternative is "all stocks" or a "fund of funds"
(e.g., target retirement date) that provides a blend of stock and bond returns. If you wish to consider separate bond funds, compare the yield on a fund
with a duration similar to the time remaining on the loan, and put your money toward the one with the higher interest/yield.
8. Because any earnings, even if taxed, will help your FI journey.
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Re: OT: Investing 

Post#31 » by MickeyDavis » Mon Dec 18, 2017 1:09 pm

One of the biggest mistakes I see is not taking advantage of your company's 401k match ( if they have one). While this varies, typically a company will match 50% of what you put in up to 6%. So they'll put in 3% if you put in 6% or higher. That's free money. Take it.
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Re: OT: Investing 

Post#32 » by skones » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:01 pm

MickeyDavis wrote:One of the biggest mistakes I see is not taking advantage of your company's 401k match ( if they have one). While this varies, typically a company will match 50% of what you put in up to 6%. So they'll put in 3% if you put in 6% or higher. That's free money. Take it.


Agree. My company matches up to 11% and I take full advantage, but I realize that's mostly unheard of.
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Re: OT: Investing 

Post#33 » by MartyConlonOnTheRun » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:05 pm

skones wrote:
MickeyDavis wrote:One of the biggest mistakes I see is not taking advantage of your company's 401k match ( if they have one). While this varies, typically a company will match 50% of what you put in up to 6%. So they'll put in 3% if you put in 6% or higher. That's free money. Take it.


Agree. My company matches up to 11% and I take full advantage, but I realize that's mostly unheard of.

That's crazy awesome and some serious cash it you get into a higher salary range.
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Re: OT: Investing 

Post#34 » by MickeyDavis » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:13 pm

Match up to 11? Awesome.
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Re: OT: Investing 

Post#35 » by ReasonablySober » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:32 pm

Good thread. I missed out on however it is most people learned about investing over the years. For real, the only thing I know about it is what I picked up watching The Big Short and Trading Places.



But I'm really interested in getting a solid base of knowledge.
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Re: OT: Investing 

Post#36 » by Profound23 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:34 pm

midranger wrote:
SupremeHustle wrote:Just tell me what to short so I can do it.

Bitcoin.


While sitting in an investment conference my former manager told me 4 years ago to invest in bitcoin. Everyone there told him how foolish it was and talked me out of it.

He of course invested, his investment grew and grew. Only issue is he sold way too early. He made a few hundred into thousands, but not millions.

Recently he has told me about a few others. Over a week ago I took my football winnings from the year (minus 500 I threw away on the Packers) and invested into some alt coins. One of them went up 300% and the other 500% over the course of a week. Expecting them both to grow immensely in 2018 and moving forward.
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Re: OT: Investing 

Post#37 » by crkone » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:38 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:Good thread. I missed out on however it is most people learned about investing over the years. For real, the only thing I know about it is what I picked up watching The Big Short and Trading Places.



But I'm really interested in getting a solid base of knowledge.



http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/corn.aspx?timeframe=1y

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Re: OT: Investing 

Post#38 » by ReginaldDwight » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:38 pm

Profound23 wrote:
midranger wrote:
SupremeHustle wrote:Just tell me what to short so I can do it.

Bitcoin.


While sitting in an investment conference my former manager told me 4 years ago to invest in bitcoin. Everyone there told him how foolish it was and talked me out of it.

He of course invested, his investment grew and grew. Only issue is he sold way too early. He made a few hundred into thousands, but not millions.

Recently he has told me about a few others. Over a week ago I took my football winnings from the year (minus 500 I threw away on the Packers) and invested into some alt coins. One of them went up 300% and the other 500% over the course of a week. Expecting them both to grow immensely in 2018 and moving forward.

If Bitcoin goes up to 100k a coin what will happen?
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Re: OT: Investing 

Post#39 » by MickeyDavis » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:39 pm

Yeah, so much emphasis on when/what to buy that many people put little thought into when/what to sell. Selling too early/late is as big of a factor as buying too early/late. Generally if a stock I have goes up I'll take some profit along the way and, depending on the situation, buy more on the dips. I like to lock in some profit and then ride the rest.
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Re: OT: Investing 

Post#40 » by Profound23 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:41 pm

ReginaldDwight wrote:
Profound23 wrote:
midranger wrote:Bitcoin.


While sitting in an investment conference my former manager told me 4 years ago to invest in bitcoin. Everyone there told him how foolish it was and talked me out of it.

He of course invested, his investment grew and grew. Only issue is he sold way too early. He made a few hundred into thousands, but not millions.

Recently he has told me about a few others. Over a week ago I took my football winnings from the year (minus 500 I threw away on the Packers) and invested into some alt coins. One of them went up 300% and the other 500% over the course of a week. Expecting them both to grow immensely in 2018 and moving forward.

If Bitcoin goes up to 100k a coin what will happen?


I don't know. As many have said it's all speculative. I think the big bucks lies now in alt coins. Although, people have said for over a year "Bitcoin can only go up but so much" and it continues to grow. I think it's great to still invest in stocks but why not hedge your bets with bitcoin or other altcoins just in case.

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