The Wizards 2018 second round draft pick

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

When I think about second round draft picks and the Wizards I envision a polar bear mauling tiny penguins... Ernie Grunfeld dispatches those picks, usually, just as the Kodiak ravages the Emperors.

Regardless, I look around the league and see teams like San Antonio and Miami that have undrafted players and second round picks prominently playing in their roster rotation. Perhaps the Wizards will keep their second round pick this draft.

Now that there is a G League I am encouraged to continue to suggest players like Michael Young. I wonder how he is doing in G League? Also it is fun looking at the second round pick. I have always liked to try to find those Diamonds in the Rough.

Now that Kevin Broom has gotten too big for this forum... No more fancy-dancy spreadsheet analysis... Just crazy ass me.

Just kidding man.

Anyway there's a guy named tray holder. No Moto G translator! Tra Holder.

I'm watching him at Arizona State thinking he might be pretty good at the next level. Him and the cat that plays for West Virginia. Senior I believe Carter is his last name....

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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Ethan Happ

Could make an NBA roster...

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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Jo Lual-Acuil Jr.

This is right now the huge sleeper who will slip to the second round and definitely make it in the NBA.

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[gravytrain24]

You can always look for those diamonds in the rough but until our own GM does, there's no point

[NatP4]

Matt Farrell and Bonzie Colson from Notre Dame

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

You can always look for those diamonds in the rough but until our own GM does, there's no point

It has been a depressing 10 years or so.

One time they did put Morris Almond on the team! I've noticed they seem to add some of the guys I like a couple of years late like DeJuan Blair (too bad they also added Kris Humphries at the same time!!!)

Speaking "the truth in love" gravytrain; which means sharing my honest opinion hopefully not to hurt....

I really used to think I could be a really good judge of talent and a decent GM. Now I know that I will never have a handle on the financial things like Nate and others do.

However, I think I'm better than Kevin Broom and all his spreadsheets when it comes to scouting potential NBA talent.

I think Ernie just inherited the position by being a former player.

I think a lot of these coaches the same way. First they were players and then they got noticed in an opportunity to coach.

How do I feel about players? Most of them have God gifted genetics. They're really tall and or athletic. Otherwise, the rest of us can ball too!!! It is what it is.

They're no better than the average human being would be if given the same opportunities they have been blessed with IMO. I realize that a lot of them spent a lot of hours honing their craft and that's why they made it to the big leagues. But I say it was because they were genetically gifted in the first place. They probably had parents that were athletic. Most are not quite so fortunate.

I think Ernie Grunfeld is probably an average GM. We're just sick of him. Those other "stiffs" we're players for by way of nepotism got where they're getting, too.

Surely Ernie is deficient in many areas. Just look at how Danny Ainge has done with the Celtics in the past 10 years. Compare and contrast.

The Golden State Warriors have Steph Curry. I posted draft Steph Curry and DeJuan Blair. And this GM traded the rights to Steph Curry for a damn Mike Miller and Randy f****** Foye.

That year he drafted Vesely... ARGHH!

What I'm doing is just not allowing the reality that grunfeld is going to grunfeld to steal my joy. I will continue to dream about good second round picks regardless of who the GM is.

(Forgive me for putting too many people in the same pot as Ernie Grunfeld. There are many talented people who are coaching or managing NBA teams. Many owners are better than Ted Leonsis).

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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Matt Farrell and Bonzie Colson from Notre Dame

Outstanding!

Colson is a real hit or miss pick. I think about Brogdon, Denzel Valentine, and also Jason Hart; who fit the mold height-wise of Bonzie Colson. None of those guys can rebound like he does. But on the other hand Colson is undersized to be an interior player. I am concerned about his ability to score at the next level.

I have to look at Farrell more closely.

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[queridiculo]

Guys, this pick is already gone, save the bits

[nate33]

Guys, this pick is already gone, save the bits

The Wizards have traded away their 2019 and 2021 draft picks. Their 2020 pick is owed to Milwaukee but it is protected 31-55 so it's probably not going anywhere.

They do have their 2018 pick, but as queridiculo alluded, it is likely that EG trades it away. My guess is that it gets attached to Jason Smith (plus Meeks, perhaps) so that someone absorbs those contracts and gets us out of the luxtax this season.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Channeling my inner Conor McGregor:

I just tink hez a fooking moron to be trading deez picks away each and every year!

EG will do nuttin what is GM. He'll never win and you can tell him I said it.

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[queridiculo]

Guys, this pick is already gone, save the bits

The Wizards have traded away their 2019 and 2021 draft picks. Their 2020 pick is owed to Milwaukee but it is protected 31-55 so it's probably not going anywhere.

They do have their 2018 pick, but as queridiculo alluded, it is likely that EG trades it away. My guess is that it gets attached to Jason Smith (plus Meeks, perhaps) so that someone absorbs those contracts and gets us out of the luxtax this season.

Not for long is what I meant to imply.

Edit: nevermind, skipped over the second paragraph

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Guys, this pick is already gone, save the bits

I'll just rename the thread.

Players who a better GM will pick with this Wizards pick...

Jarrett Allen is going to be good. He's one of the ones that Ernie traded in the first round. We all know about Clarkson on the Lakers, a second round Ernie gift.

Seth Curry should have been a Wizard...CORRECTED TO ADD: STEPH CURRY could have been a Wizard (too)

Players who will be good for other teams... That's who we are talking about with this Wizards second round 2018 pick.

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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

REDACTED

You would arguably do better just drafting guys in the second round. You don't have to pay guys like Kris Middleton too much. If you look at his contract and Bradley Beal's contract you might reconsider which is the better value. Beal is the better player but by how much? (If Khris Middleton is the first round pick I'm just wrong I don't even feel like looking it up).

Why did I make that statement about second round picks? If you look at the draft the first round consists of entirely freshmen or International Players. There's clearly something wrong with never drafting players who do not declare in their freshman year. Yogi Ferrell. I remember when he was in the Big Ten at the same time as Romelo Trimble. He was a better point guard in the Big Ten. He is on the Dallas Mavericks right now. Drafting guys like him and Juwan Evans would be better than trading assets to acquire a Tim Frazier.

Having traded away the second-rounders for the next few years makes me think this man is incredibly dense!!!

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[I_Like_Dirt]

They do have their 2018 pick, but as queridiculo alluded, it is likely that EG trades it away. My guess is that it gets attached to Jason Smith (plus Meeks, perhaps) so that someone absorbs those contracts and gets us out of the luxtax this season.

I don't think it's enough on it's own to move both Smith and Meeks. I do think it's possible it moves one of them, though.

And there's also this guy in the draft EG has had his eye on for some time. You can basically take him to the bank. Maybe you've heard of Cash? No, not the dude who married Jessica Alba. Cash Considerations.

[nate33]

They do have their 2018 pick, but as queridiculo alluded, it is likely that EG trades it away. My guess is that it gets attached to Jason Smith (plus Meeks, perhaps) so that someone absorbs those contracts and gets us out of the luxtax this season.

I don't think it's enough on it's own to move both Smith and Meeks. I do think it's possible it moves one of them, though.

And there's also this guy in the draft EG has had his eye on for some time. You can basically take him to the bank. Maybe you've heard of Cash? No, not the dude who married Jessica Alba. Cash Considerations.

cash considerations don't get us out of the luxtax though. At best, Ted will get somebody to pay maybe $2M dollars for that pick

Jason Smith is actually costing Ted about $5.25M dollars in salary, plus about $8M in luxtax costs, plus he misses out on about $3M in luxtax reimbursements by being an over-the-luxtax-threshold team. If Ted can get someone to absorb Smith's contract at the Trade Deadline in exchange for that 2nd round pick, Ted saves about $13M. (He would still pay the prorated amount of Smith's salary for the 50 games he was on the team, but he would save all of the luxtax costs and get a luxtax distribution). Getting $13M in return for a 2nd round pick is a good deal, objectively speaking. Using the pick to dump Smith is a way better idea that selling the pick for cash.

The team paying for Smith only pays the remaining $2M of his prorated salary, plus maybe the $5.4M that Smith will earn next year if he declines the player option. For that cost, they get a decent role player and locker room guy for 110 games or so, and they get a 2nd round pick. It's a win-win.

Ted could even sweeten the pot a bit by chipping in an extra $3M in cash to pay much of Jason Smith's salary. It would mean Ted only saves $10M in the transaction, but $10M for one 2nd round pick is still a good deal. The other team effectively plays just $4M total for 110 games of Jason Smith and they get a 2nd round pick, and they save a minimum contract they would have to pay to fill out their roster.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Oh, I get the idea of avoiding the tax and the value therein. Like I said, one of Smith or Meeks is possible for that 2nd, particularly if the Wizards are willing to chip in some of the limited supply of cash they're allowed to send out in a season.

As for win-win, well, the 2nd rounder is a win for the other team. Any team that really wants Jason Smith can find a 5.1 PER, .392 TS% and bad defense for the minimum any time they want. They probably do even better than that. And given that the draft is before free agency, there is likely to be a heightened market for that kind of trade, and teams with cap space aren't necessarily going to add long-term salary for a 2nd rounder. Hinkie seemed to do that sometimes, but he's gone. Honestly, Colangelo in Philly adds another GM that's inclined to sell picks at times, decreasing their value by virtue of increasing the supply and reducing the demand.

Hey, if the Wizards can get out of the tax for that 2nd, absolutely. It doesn't strike me as being likely, though. Seems more in line with what Ernie will eventually wind up using that 1st rounder for, with the added "benefit" that they then don't have to pay another onerous 1st round rookie scale salary. I'm not optimistic on Ernie's ability to get value for a 2nd rounder on its own, though.

[nate33]

Oh, I get the idea of avoiding the tax and the value therein. Like I said, one of Smith or Meeks is possible for that 2nd, particularly if the Wizards are willing to chip in some of the limited supply of cash they're allowed to send out in a season.

As for win-win, well, the 2nd rounder is a win for the other team. Any team that really wants Jason Smith can find a 5.1 PER, .392 TS% and bad defense for the minimum any time they want. They probably do even better than that. And given that the draft is before free agency, there is likely to be a heightened market for that kind of trade, and teams with cap space aren't necessarily going to add long-term salary for a 2nd rounder. Hinkie seemed to do that sometimes, but he's gone. Honestly, Colangelo in Philly adds another GM that's inclined to sell picks at times, decreasing their value by virtue of increasing the supply and reducing the demand.

Hey, if the Wizards can get out of the tax for that 2nd, absolutely. It doesn't strike me as being likely, though. Seems more in line with what Ernie will eventually wind up using that 1st rounder for, with the added "benefit" that they then don't have to pay another onerous 1st round rookie scale salary. I'm not optimistic on Ernie's ability to get value for a 2nd rounder on its own, though.

We shall see. I don't think it's fair to label Jason Smith a 5.1 PER player after just 131 minutes of sporadic playing time when last year he posted a PER of 13.6 and a TS% of .598 in 1068 minutes of playing time.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Oh that's absolutely an unfair label, but it's not more unfair than calling him a .598 TS% player. That was a career high by a rather substantial margin. And while I'm sure his PER would rise with an increased sample size, that number is down in large part because his TS%, rebounds and assists are all way down. I don't see any of those as likely to fully recover to his peak, such as it was. There are all sorts of players like Jason Thompson available out there for the minimum that don't involve taking on Jason Smith's contract. It only takes one GM to say yes, so it's definitely a possibility.

[Ruzious]

Matt Farrell and Bonzie Colson from Notre Dame

Outstanding!

Colson is a real hit or miss pick. I think about Brogdon, Denzel Valentine, and also Jason Hart; who fit the mold height-wise of Bonzie Colson. None of those guys can rebound like he does. But on the other hand Colson is undersized to be an interior player. I am concerned about his ability to score at the next level.

I have to look at Farrell more closely.

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Hey, if Connaughton can make it - Colson should - he's been the better player at Notre Dame. They're about the same size, and Colson actually plays D - and has very good length. Problem is - Colson's used to playing center - at 6'4 and a half. He still could have a Jae Crowder type career.

[payitforward]

In the era of the cap & the tax, cheap & young talent that you have control over for a few years is an incredibly valuable asset.

Given how many good players come out of R2 of the draft, how little they cost, that a R2 contract usually gives your team an early & inexpensive way out (if your pick doesn't develop), & how high the margin of value over cost is for guys who turn out, I'd say it's the most underutilized -- & therefore cheapest -- resource available to an GM.

Therefore, I don't think a GM should ask himself "who can I get w/ my number XX pick?" Instead he should be asking himself "who are the best 1/2 dozen players likely to be available anywhere in R2?" Then he should buy a high enough R2 pick to get one of those guys. & of course he should use his own R2 pick as well.

Add the fact that buying R2 picks is a way to spend money to improve your roster that adds nothing to your cap or tax worries, & it's obvious, a no-brainer..

We've seen GS use this strategy 2 years in a row to great effect. Some other smart GMs have as well, while the dumb GMs sell their picks. And/or throw them into trades pointlessly.

Now... eventually, even incompetents like Ernie will notice what a good idea it is; fewer R2 picks will be available to buy, & the price will go up. This strategy won't be effective for more than another couple of years, maybe less.