2018 Brewers Discussion - Yelich Signing on Page 45

[Kerb Hohl]

I don't know how you look at the splits and think that he's a guy you want pitching in Miller Park. Like I said, I hope he got a nothing contract and is only getting a look as a back-end guy who could quickly be replaced.

On the plus side, the guy put up non-gas can numbers at Coors and was really good away from Coors. Of course that was in his prime, but trying to look at this through a very positive lens, maybe the home/road splits were a bit fluky last year and we're getting a 4-4.5 FIP guy for 1 year/$5 million and the ERA/production comes in step with that. Not something to celebrate in the streets about but a fair deal.

[crkone]

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[crkone]

Chacin was 15th in the league in GB/FB ratio, his GB% was 14th in the league, and had the tenth lowest HR/FB ratio in the league. His control has been funky to say the least tho and that's what gets him into trouble.

[crkone]

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[Iheartfootball]

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That sounds like...too much?

[ReasonablySober]

#lordy

[Thunder Muscle]

Is there any way that we can frame and sticky just Thunder Muscle's pull of the Kevin Correia thread and trade proposal? That thing was GOAT. Don't know if serious or just having fun, but that was great either way.

Haha! Yeah was tongue & cheek hoping someone would read quick thinking we were legit trying to get Correa even though said Correia....then be WTF with the proposal. Hope this didn't ruin it, lol.

[Thunder Muscle]

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That sounds like...too much?

Attanasio. Sigh.

[Kerb Hohl]

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That sounds like...too much?

That's the going rate for a pitcher like that. I'm being talked off the ledge a bit reading more. He had a brutal BABIP on the road (and a good one at home). I'm not having a parade about this but it's fine. I think he'll be a good #5 that could be a good reliever throwing his sinker/slider if that doesn't work out.

[Kerb Hohl]

Guys, our payroll will still be one of the lowest in the league this year.

Chacin was a 2 WAR pitcher last year. He's done that several times in his career with a 4 WAR once. It costs about 8 million per win for contracts generally. There is risk in him being the pitcher he was in his early 20s (duh) or last year, but in theory, it's under-value.

This contract won't get in the way of anything. The contract value is fine. If someone wanted to let Aaron Wilkerson pitch a little bit worse in the 5 spot while Attanasio's ownership group bought another private jet, by all means, enjoy.

If you think we could avoid every signing like this for 5 years and then add up all of those pennies and buy a premier free agent in 5 years...it doesn't work like that.

[JimmyTheKid]

Have the terms of Yovani's deal been released?

[ReasonablySober]

Guys, our payroll will still be one of the lowest in the league this year.

Chacin was a 2 WAR pitcher last year. He's done that several times in his career with a 4 WAR once. It costs about 8 million per win for contracts generally. There is risk in him being the pitcher he was in his early 20s (duh) or last year, but in theory, it's under-value.

This contract won't get in the way of anything. The contract value is fine. If someone wanted to let Aaron Wilkerson pitch a little bit worse in the 5 spot while Attanasio's ownership group bought another private jet, by all means, enjoy.

If you think we could avoid every signing like this for 5 years and then add up all of those pennies and buy a premier free agent in 5 years...it doesn't work like that.

I just fundamentally disagree with that. It doesn't make any sense.

[Kerb Hohl]

Guys, our payroll will still be one of the lowest in the league this year.

Chacin was a 2 WAR pitcher last year. He's done that several times in his career with a 4 WAR once. It costs about 8 million per win for contracts generally. There is risk in him being the pitcher he was in his early 20s (duh) or last year, but in theory, it's under-value.

This contract won't get in the way of anything. The contract value is fine. If someone wanted to let Aaron Wilkerson pitch a little bit worse in the 5 spot while Attanasio's ownership group bought another private jet, by all means, enjoy.

If you think we could avoid every signing like this for 5 years and then add up all of those pennies and buy a premier free agent in 5 years...it doesn't work like that.

I just fundamentally disagree with that. It doesn't make any sense.

We've gone over this. There's still an ownership with a budget and yearly allotments. I totally agree that they may say, "OK, you can run at ~$60 million for 3 years and then we'll go up to our $100-110 million range for a while" as a company may forecast a budget for good and bad times, but it's not 1:1.

"OK, we didn't sign Chacin, we declined that other option on Kyle Lohse, we passed on signing a catcher in 2015...so our rainy day fund has $65 million in it so let's go out and sign Wade Davis."

The ownership group still wants to declare yearly losses for tax purposes, etc., and not spend at random whims. Could you honestly see the Brewers doing something like running a $30 million payroll for 5 years and then sign Bryce Harper and Keuchel? Because that would be a smart idea if they had a billion dollars for a 10 year span (average $100 million payroll) and they could just bank it.

I think we agree more on this than we think because it's true that they'll ramp up/down payroll and the down years can help fund more for the up years in spending, but I think there are caps on the highs and lows.

[ReasonablySober]

Except it's exactly what MA has said. The money they don't spend is what they'll be able to spend later.

[Kerb Hohl]

Except it's exactly what MA has said. The money they don't spend is what they'll be able to spend later.

That's ambiguous, though.

I gave you the example. My company cut travel way back a few years back because they foretasted for a downturn in the economy just like the Brewers forecasted a rebuild.

So now that we're back to normal spending, the company didn't say, "OK, we saved $4 million dollars over the past 5 years doing that. Spend it as you see fit." No, they go back to normal spending. If I travel 10 times/year, I cannot ask my boss to not travel this year and next and then travel 30 times 2 years from now. There are yearly budgets that people expect.

I don't think Attanasio says, "here, Stearns, here's a billion dollars. You choose how to spend it over the next 10 years and we'll accommodate." I doubt when they negotiated with Chacin he said, "now David, if you don't want him, we can put this in the rainy day fund."

Yes the money they "saved" is going into current spending. So yeah, there's more money to spend now. But I don't think Stearns can keep rolling that forward every year until he's got himself enough to buy a $150 million player.

[trwi7]

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[ReasonablySober]

Except it's exactly what MA has said. The money they don't spend is what they'll be able to spend later.

That's ambiguous, though.

I gave you the example. My company cut travel way back a few years back because they foretasted for a downturn in the economy just like the Brewers forecasted a rebuild.

So now that we're back to normal spending, the company didn't say, "OK, we saved $4 million dollars over the past 5 years doing that. Spend it as you see fit." No, they go back to normal spending. If I travel 10 times/year, I cannot ask my boss to not travel this year and next and then travel 30 times 2 years from now. There are yearly budgets that people expect.

I don't think Attanasio says, "here, Stearns, here's a billion dollars. You choose how to spend it over the next 10 years and we'll accommodate." I doubt when they negotiated with Chacin he said, "now David, if you don't want him, we can put this in the rainy day fund."

Why not?

[Kerb Hohl]

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1. Most of Chacin's career was in Colorado if you wanna bring ERA into it.
2. Peralta was heading way downhill and Chacin seems to have incorporated his sinker/slider more and is on an upswing (no, he's not going to become Noah Syndergaard, but he's pitching better).

If Wily Peralta was still putting up the numbers that you stated on there, he'd be playing for $8 million/year or more.

[mlloyd10]

Good trade chip

[Kerb Hohl]

Except it's exactly what MA has said. The money they don't spend is what they'll be able to spend later.

That's ambiguous, though.

I gave you the example. My company cut travel way back a few years back because they foretasted for a downturn in the economy just like the Brewers forecasted a rebuild.

So now that we're back to normal spending, the company didn't say, "OK, we saved $4 million dollars over the past 5 years doing that. Spend it as you see fit." No, they go back to normal spending. If I travel 10 times/year, I cannot ask my boss to not travel this year and next and then travel 30 times 2 years from now. There are yearly budgets that people expect.

I don't think Attanasio says, "here, Stearns, here's a billion dollars. You choose how to spend it over the next 10 years and we'll accommodate." I doubt when they negotiated with Chacin he said, "now David, if you don't want him, we can put this in the rainy day fund."

Why not?

Because it's a business with a range of budgets per year still. These guys still have operating expenses/losses/profits. I don't think all of Attanasio's partners want to have no idea what their profit will be year/year. They went into a planned cut on spending so that when they compete again they can spend within their normal range.

I think what you suggest that "don't spend here so we can spend here" happens sometimes but it's not how everything is run. Mark probably says, "your budget is around $85 million this year, give or take a few million." I'm sure there are a few times where Stearns can push back some savings, but I really doubt they have a giant rainy day fund that they use on every signing and saving.