2018 Packers Offseason Thread - Jordy Out/Jimmy & Mo In

[MickeyDavis]

WR is the biggest question mark. Here's Dougherty's take on WR and other off season moves including Matthews and Bulaga

The Green Bay Packers’ 2018 season starts now.

With the playoffs out of the picture for the first time since 2008, the Packers have two games left to evaluate their players solely with an eye toward building a 2018 roster that can win the Super Bowl.

The highest levels of the organization also have to take a hard look within: President and CEO Mark Murphy evaluating general manager Ted Thompson’s performance; Thompson evaluating coach Mike McCarthy; and McCarthy evaluating his defensive coordinator, Dom Capers.

But with two more games to appraise players, let’s focus today on the roster. Here are some of the big questions the Packers have to address in the next 2½ months:
Randall Cobb or Jordy Nelson?

Let’s just assume the Packers re-sign Davante Adams. Yes, a second concussion this season (and third in the last 14 months) raises a red flag for Adams’ future. But he didn’t miss a game after either of the first two, and most importantly, he has become one of their best players. Not incidentally, they should sit him the final two games and not risk another concussion. But unless something that’s not known publicly comes up, he’s a must re-sign.

He won’t come cheap. Alshon Jeffery just signed a contract extension with the Philadelphia Eagles that averages $13 million and includes $26 million fully guaranteed if he’s on the roster in early March, which he surely will be. Jeffery has 56 catches, a 13.9-yard average and nine touchdowns, and played most of the season with Carson Wentz, an MVP candidate before his season-ending ACL injury, as his quarterback. Adams has 74, 12.0 and 10, and he played half the season with backup Brett Hundley at quarterback.

Look for Adams to top Jeffery’s deal.

In the meantime, Nelson is scheduled to make $10.25 million in salary and bonuses next year, and Cobb $9.5 million. The Packers can’t put $35 million a year into three receivers. One of them has to go.

I lean toward keeping Nelson and playing him mostly in the slot in ’18, but let’s see how the final two games go. Cobb is faster and younger (27 to Nelson’s 32). Nelson is bigger (6-feet-3 to Cobb’s 5-10), which matters when working the middle of the field. Cobb’s chemistry with quarterback Aaron Rodgers is good, whereas Nelson’s is exceptional.

It’s mainly a matter of whether Nelson has lost too much speed.

You also can’t rule out the Packers moving on from both. Change happens that fast in the NFL. More likely, they’ll keep one, and probably even re-work his contract to lower his 2018 pay. They can do that with a contract extension that includes guaranteed money in exchange for a much lower salary.

The re-sign list

Besides Adams, the Packers' other priority re-sign has to be center Corey Linsley. He has been a solid performer who has answered durability questions by not missing an offensive snap this season. The Packers don’t have a backup near his caliber, and with all their draft and free-agent needs, including on the offensive line (right tackle and right guard), they can’t add another at center.

The hardest free-agent call is Morgan Burnett. He’s a smart veteran who plays safety, nitro linebacker and, for much of this season, slot cornerback. He has played a lot of capable football. But he also turns 29 in January, an age when players at his position can decline quickly.

The Packers are in position to move on. They drafted a replacement, Josh Jones, in the second round last spring. Jones and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix could be the starters, with Kentrell Brice (ankle) returning from injured reserve to be the No. 3 safety. But Jones hasn’t been the playmaker I thought he would be in his rookie season. They would have to project that he’ll be a different player next year.

Right guard Jahri Evans and cornerback Davon House, stopgap help for this season, also will be free agents.

At age 34, the former All-Pro Evans has delivered a credible season at low cost ($2.5 million). But his play has slipped as of late, so you have to wonder if the big drop is coming next year. I could see bringing him back for a look in training camp for minimal guaranteed money, but the Packers can’t assume he has another season as a starter in him.

House, 28, was a value signing ($2.8 million) for an undermanned cornerback group that's had injury issues. He's a natural re-sign because the cost won't be high. But the Packers badly need reinforcements.

What about Clay Matthews?

Matthews, 31, obviously isn’t the pass rusher he once was. His $11.4 million pay in ’18 is too high for a guy who’s no longer routinely winning one-on-one pass-rushing battles. That doesn’t mean it’s time to part ways.

The Packers can lower his ’18 pay in the face-saving way described earlier — offer a decent guarantee, add a year or two on the deal and cut his salary.

But just as important is where to play him. I’d move him back inside. He’s their most athletic inside linebacker and can still rush on passing downs, as he did when he played there a couple years ago.

The Packers need to get younger and more explosive at outside rusher, that’s what this next draft should be about. Moving Matthews inside opens that door and addresses another weak spot in the defense.


Is Bulaga back?

Bryan Bulaga’s torn ACL in early November is a problem. There’s a decent chance he’ll open next season on the physically unable to perform list, which would mean he’d effectively miss the first half of the season. He has been a good player, but at age 28 has had three major injuries (two ACLs and a hip) in the last five years.

On the other hand, the Packers don’t have a replacement in waiting. Second-year pro Kyle Murphy (foot) has been on IR since Week 4, and whether he’s a starter is very much an open question. Jason Spriggs has two more weeks to make his argument for the job, but based on his body of work so far there’s no reason to think he’s the answer.

Bulaga’s future with the Packers could depend on what happens in the offseason. If the Packers can find a free-agent stopgap, like they did at guard with Evans this year, or draft a possible starter, then they move on. If not, Bulaga, presumably at a reduced salary from the $6.75 million he’s scheduled to make this year, might be their fallback for the second half of ‘18.

These aren’t the Packers’ only roster decisions for the offseason – there’s an entire draft, among other things. But they’re the ones the team’s scouting and coaching staffs need to ponder while watching the final two games.

With no playoff chase to occupy the here and now, next season has begun.

[Ron Swanson]

Predicted that Clay would be gone after this year and I'm sticking to it. I like the idea of moving him inside if he's willing to restructure his deal though. Cobb is the most likely gone out of the two WR. I don't see them releasing Jordy and risking making Rodgers unhappy. Leaves you with Adams/Jordy/Montgomery/Davis/Allison. Think you really need to add someone in the draft seeing that Montgomery is always hurt and Davis hasn't really turned into the route-runner or deep threat that you wanted him to be (though a fantastic returner).

I think Spriggs' late emergence allows you to move on from Bulaga, which sucks, but he's another guy who's getting older and always seems to be either hurt or battling a lingering injury. Re-sign Linsley, let Burnett walk. If House and Evans are willing to take another 1-year minimal guaranteed deal, re-sign them too.

[Flames24Rulz]

To answer the thread question, Capers goes. Hopefully.

I think Clay and either Jordy or Cobb are going to have their deals re-structured. Rodgers is obviously getting his extension in the offseason, and you can't afford to let Adams walk. At worst, Adams gets franchised, but I think they'll re-sign him to a long-term deal.

Montgomery needs to be shifted back to WR with the emergence of Jones & Williams. Maybe putting him back at WR will help with his durability. If Jones or Williams goes down, at least you know Montgomery can be capable (if healthy) of filling in at RB, if necessary.

I'd look at seeing if Bulaga would take a prove-it deal for next year. If not, then I think you have to move on from him because he can't be trusted to stay healthy for a full season.

[crkone]

Montgomery doesn't really have the natural vision at RB or the hands/route running ability at WR. I don't know what they should do with him on the field. I would let one of Cobb/Nelson go if they get a viable replacement in mind. Restructure the other WR and Clay. Bring back Linsley. After some bad drafts all of a sudden there are holes everywhere.

[jakecronus8]

I wouldn't bet on too many restructured deals. They're not really that common. I kinda prefer a pretty big clean sweep with their cap anyways. Bulaga, Cobb, Matthews can all be shown the door.

[Profound23]

The thing about Matthews is if he goes to another team and makes an impact like Hyde or Hayward.....or even Peppers like we look like idiots.

I would try to keep him and restructure if possible.

[Ron Swanson]

The key is just getting another consistent pass-rusher to play opposite Perry and move Clay inside. Clay has just lost too much as an outside rusher at this point. I'd feel pretty comfortable calling that group of linebackers, with Martinez, one of the better units in the league. The front-7/run defense wasn't the problem this year.

[MickeyDavis]

Agree that Ty goes back to WR. He was a nice stop gap but we have 2 good backs now. He will be entering the final year of his rookie deal. Maybe they look to extend him cheap, I don't know.

Bulaga counts $8.35 million next year but $3.2 dead cap if he's released.

Clay is a big cap hit ($15,075 mil), there has to be a way to restructure (he has 2 years left). If he balks you may have to release him.

Cobb is $12.75 next year, Jordy is $12.55, so it's a wash. Personally I'd let Jordy walk or restructure. Keep Cobb.

[MickeyDavis]

What sucks is Bennett counts for $4.2 million dead cap money next year. ****.

[MickeyDavis]

When asked Wednesday how much longer he’d like to coach, the 67-year-old Capers did not sound like someone ready to call it a career.

“As long as I enjoy it,” Capers said. “I enjoy the competitiveness of it, and the relationship with the players. So as long as I enjoy it.”

Capers then was asked when would he know it was time to retire.

“If I ever feel like I can’t come in and give as much as I’ve got,” Capers said, “and do the kind of job that you want to do.”

[Flames24Rulz]

What sucks is Bennett counts for $4.2 million dead cap money next year. ****.

I think the Packers have a good shot at getting that money back though, based on the designation they used for him and the case that they can present against him. Here's what I found on that:

The Packers used the “failure to disclose a physical condition” designation so that it showed they were parting ways as a result of Bennett’s actions and not their own. NFL clubs are able to go to arbitration to recoup a percentage of signing bonus money if a player retires, violates conduct policies or is dishonest about an existing physical condition.

The Packers paid Bennett a $6.3 million signing bonus and the prorated portion remaining is $4.2 million, which is what the Packers would try to recoup. Whatever they could get back would be applied to the salary cap.

You'd have to think that they'll at least get a good chunk of that $4.2 million back, if not the whole thing, especially considering how he played the very same week for New England.

[trwi7]

We have one good back. I think Ty still plays some RB but also some WR.

[jakecronus8]

We have one good back. I think Ty still plays some RB but also some WR.

Out of Jones and Williams, who don't you like?

[trwi7]

We have one good back. I think Ty still plays some RB but also some WR.

Out of Jones and Williams, who don't you like?

Williams. I've never seen so much love for a running back that averages 3.5 ypc.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Montgomery should be used in a hybrid/gadget role with Jones as the lead back and Williams rotating in. I'm not as down on Williams as Trwi7 but it's clear Jones has more 'pop' to his game. Williams reminds me of Brandon Jackson where he's a great pass blocker and does some little things well but probably not a guy you ride as a feature back.

I wouldn't be mad if either are back but I would probably move on from both Cobb and Nelson. Resign Adams or franchise tag him. I think WR is a place they need to look to do a pretty major restocking this offseason.

Linsley should be resigned. Probably need to replace Evans but if he's willing to come back for cheap and compete for a job that's fine. RT needs to be addressed I don't trust Bulaga's legs to hold up and Spriggs is apparently just garbage.

Need to find another pass rusher. I wouldn't rule out bringing Matthews back but if they can spend the money in another area (CB maybe?) then finding a younger guy to take his place works for me.

Burnett is a really hard decision. I would probably try to bring him back but I think he's a very risky contract considering his age and the punishment his body had taken playing in the box the past couple years.

[CWoodfan]

I wouldn't bet on too many restructured deals. They're not really that common. I kinda prefer a pretty big clean sweep with their cap anyways. Bulaga, Cobb, Matthews can all be shown the door.

I agree.

After resigning Adams, the team cannot afford to pay 3 WRs more than $12,000,000 a year. Cobb is nothing special in the slot. Time to move on. Jordy will either retire after this season or next. He was a great Packer, but he got old.

Bulaga may not be ready to go until the last half of next season. He can always be picked up later, and cheaper, if he is ready to go.

Matthews may stay just because outside linebacker is such a weak position, but he is not worth anywhere near the money he is due next season.

I would add that they can let Burnett walk as well unless he is cheap.

[MickeyDavis]

Silverstein on Capers

Green Bay Packers coach Mike McCarthy may not even wait past the final day of the season to decide on the future of defensive coordinator Dom Capers.

More than likely, his mind already is made up.

What he saw against the Carolina Panthers last Sunday in a must-win game against a good but not great offense had to sicken his stomach.

Receivers, tight ends and running backs running free, defensive linemen jumping offside, and maybe the worst of all, quarterback Cam Newton caught on television telling linebacker Clay Matthews before the snap, “You’ve been watching film, huh? Watch this.”

“This” turned out to be Newton throwing to halfback Christian McCaffrey running uncovered over the middle for an easy touchdown while the Packers bungled a coverage they had worked on during the week.

The die is cast and McCarthy has no choice but to fire Capers and begin searching for someone who can pull together the talent the Packers have on defense.

It was true early in the season when it was fighting through injuries and it remained true when many of those players returned: The Packers' defense features a bunch of individuals playing individually. The positions aren’t working in concert and it shows week after week.

The ultimate in team defense is zone coverage. The Packers are horrible at it and it’s not just because they’ve been mostly a man-to-man team under Capers.

It’s because the left hand never seems to know what the right hand is doing.

When safeties aren’t chasing decoy routes, inside linebackers are dropping improperly into coverage. When cornerbacks aren’t tipping coverage with their stances, pass rushers are losing their lane integrity. When Newton isn’t certain what coverage the Packers are in, his offensive line is picking up the blitz and letting him figure it out.

A perfect example of the lack of chemistry was McCaffrey’s 7-yard touchdown catch. Inside linebacker Blake Martinez and safety Josh Jones had tight end Greg Olsen and McCaffrey, who ran complementary routes. Both Martinez and Jones went with Olsen and McCaffrey was left wide open.

“We practice it through the week,” inside linebackers coach Scott McCurley lamented with pain in his voice. “It was a top concept in what we do and we didn’t get it executed between he and Josh in there.

“So, that’s something we need to get done between the staff and the players and get that executed.”

There are individual failures, too, things that this late in the season would seem inexcusable, even if they’re committed by rookies. Jones letting Olsen, arguably Carolina’s top receiving threat, run right past him for a wide-open 30-yard touchdown pass was egregious.

Jones has 663 snaps under his belt this season, so inexperience isn’t much of an excuse. He wound up chasing an underneath route that one of his teammates had covered in simple man-to-man coverage.

“That kind of exemplifies the consistency which we haven’t been able to play,” Capers said. “We haven’t played as consistent as we’d like to play.”

Capers described the blown coverage as something you see happening all over the NFL this time of year, which may be true. But it seems to happen on a regular basis with his defense, which has given up 26 passing touchdowns, tied for fifth most in the NFL.

As much as his lineup has been affected by injury, you only need to look across the ball to see how a unit kept it together under onerous circumstances. The offense lost its franchise quarterback, starting tight end and starting running back and was forced to play with nine different starting offensive-line combinations.

Granted, things haven’t gone great with Brett Hundley at quarterback (3-4 record), but the offensive line did not collapse, the running game thrived with a pair or rookies and the Carolina game might have been different if receiver Davante Adams hadn’t been lost early in the third quarter.

Perhaps the most damning evidence of how disjointed things are on defense is the improvement Martinez, cornerback Damarious Randall, nose tackle Kenny Clark and linebacker Kyler Fackrell made this season. That should have been transformational for a defense that ranked 22nd in yards allowed, 21st in points and 26th in opponent passer rating last season.

Add in the rapid ascension of rookie cornerback Kevin King before a shoulder injury ended his season and the surprisingly solid play of safety Jermaine Whitehead and you have some solid complementary parts to surround core players Matthews, Mike Daniels, Nick Perry, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Morgan Burnett.

Instead, the Packers go into their Saturday night matchup with the Minnesota Vikings ranked 24th in yards allowed, 21st in points and 30th in opponent passer rating.

Clinton-Dix, Burnett, Perry and Daniels didn’t have as big of an impact as they should have, and in the case of the two safeties their play took a noticeable dive.

Yes, general manager Ted Thompson did very little in free agency to improve the defense and nothing to assist Capers when he desperately needed secondary help, forcing him to play safeties at both slot positions in the sub packages.

But the disconnect between individual performance and group failure is eye-popping.

Every two weeks, reporters get to interview the defensive assistant coaches and Wednesday was the final session of the year. The Packers already had been eliminated from the playoffs and most of the questions were about what went wrong on defense.

The most striking acknowledgement from several coaches was how they were unable to marry the positional groups into a functioning unit. None of them were pointing fingers, but whether talking about individual plays or overall performance, it always came back to the same thing: They couldn’t get the pieces to fit together.

“There’s no way that you want to be in this, be a part of this organization and not be in the playoffs,” cornerbacks coach Joe Whitt said. “And part of not being in the playoffs is, we (cornerback) didn’t get it done defensively.

“But to be honest with you, I don’t think any position on the team got it done. We didn’t play good complementary football.”

Assistant head coach/linebackers Winston Moss had a similar take about playing as one. He said statistics don’t lie and the Packers' defense didn’t stack up against the league anywhere.

“Got to get guys to stay healthy, got to get them productive, got to get them playing on the same page,” Moss said. “Got to get this defense unified.”

Capers did not get stupid overnight. He was a good coach when the Packers ranked No. 5 during their Super Bowl XLV season and he’s a good coach now. In a scheme that values experience in the secondary, he has lost Al Harris, Nick Collins and Sam Shields to career-ending injuries, Micah Hyde and Casey Hayward to free agency and Charles Woodson to a salary-cap decision.

But when assistant coaches talk about needing unification and the play on the field backs them up, it’s time for a change. Maybe nine years together has made the staff stale or resulted in individuals losing faith in the system. Maybe individual goals have overtaken team goals.

Or maybe Capers, his defense and members of his defensive staff have run their course in Green Bay.

Whatever the case, McCarthy needs to fix the defense and it requires making a change.

[MickeyDavis]

Dougherty on Spielman vs. Thompson

In 2013, the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings had two of the NFL’s worst defenses.

The Packers finished that season well into the bottom third of the league in points allowed (No. 24), defensive passer rating (No. 30) and yards allowed (No. 25).

The Vikings were even worse, probably the worst in the league: No. 32 in points, No. 30 in passer rating and No. 31 in yards.

Since then, though, these defenses have taken decidedly different paths.

The Vikings have been one of the league’s best the last three years and this season probably rate with Jacksonville atop the NFL.

The Packers, on the other hand, have continued to mostly flounder despite general manager Ted Thompson spending his top draft pick on a defensive player (and six picks in the first two rounds total) every year since then. They’ve at best made it to the middle of the league in the major defensive categories, and for the last two years they’ve been as bad as anybody on that side of the ball.

So what happened? Why do the Vikings come into Lambeau Field on Saturday with a top defense and the NFC North title in hand, while the Packers continue to struggle just getting a couple stops a game?

The answer isn’t complicated.

First, Rick Spielman, the Vikings’ general manager, has simply blown away Ted Thompson when it comes to drafting defensive players over the past seven or eight years.

Second, the Vikings hired a top defensive mind as their head coach.

What sets Minnesota apart is its sheer quantity of good defensive players. After consulting three NFL scouts, the consensus was the Vikings have seven defenders who are either Pro Bowlers or only a notch below: Everson Griffen, Harrison Smith, Xavier Rhodes, Anthony Barr, Eric Kendricks, Linval Joseph and Danielle Hunter.

If you’re looking for Packers who belong on that list, you have Mike Daniels and the ascending Kenny Clark. That’s it, based on this season.

So how did the Vikings accumulate that talent? Spielman drafted six of the seven and signed the other (Joseph) as an unrestricted free agent.

Smith (No. 29 overall in 2012), Rhodes (No. 25 in ’13) and Barr (No. 9 in ’14) were first-round picks. Thompson had a shot at only one of them, Smith. The Packers’ GM picked one slot before the Vikings in ’12 and selected Nick Perry instead of the safety who has since been voted to two Pro Bowls.

But the other four Vikings standouts were on the board when Thompson picked.

Griffen, who would have been an outside linebacker in the Packers’ 3-4 defense, was a fourth-rounder (No. 100 overall) in ’10. That year Thompson picked defensive lineman Mike Neal in the second round (No. 56) and traded up for safety Morgan Burnett (No. 71) in the third.

Kendricks was a second-rounder (No. 45) in ’15. Thompson drafted Damarious Randall at No. 30, so he could have either picked Kendricks there or traded back, gained an extra pick, and still gotten him.

And Hunter was a third-rounder (No. 88 overall), also in ’15. Thompson drafted Quinten Rollins at No. 60 that year.

The defensive talent gap between these teams is stunning, and give all the credit to Spielman. He has hit on pick after pick over the last several years, whereas Thompson has hit only twice since 2010, on Daniels (fourth round) in 2012 and Clark (first round ’16).

Signing Joseph in ’14 also was a great use of free agency. The New York Giants thought they had enough talent on their defensive line to let Joseph walk, and Spielman ponied up $6.25 million a year for five years. It worked out so well the GM extended Joseph’s deal last August, adding four years and $50 million in new money, including $11.15 fully guaranteed.

Teams have wasted a lot of money in free agency over the years. But Joseph is proof there are good signings to be had.

Spielman also committed to that side of the ball by hiring Mike Zimmer as coach in ’14 after the defense had bottomed out in ’13. That meant the Vikings would have one of the league’s best defensive minds as long as he’s coach.

Zimmer has been running NFL defenses since 2000, and in those 18 seasons (which includes this one) he has ranked in the top 10 in points allowed in almost half those years (eight) and in yards exactly half (nine).

By comparison, Packers coordinator Dom Capers has run an NFL defense for 24 seasons, or six years more than Zimmer. He has the same number of top-10 finishes in points (eight) as Zimmer and two fewer in yards (seven).

It’s more than fair to say that Thompson’s defensive drafting since winning the Super Bowl in the 2010 season is a big black mark on his record. He’s as draft-oriented a GM as there is in the league, so that’s on him.

Spielman has had some drafting advantages – Thompson has picked no higher than No. 21 overall since 2010, whereas Spielman has picked in the top 12 four times in that span. But that doesn’t account for the huge difference in defensive talent. Spielman simply has picked much better players that were available to both teams.

But for all the Vikings have done for building a first-rate defense, it bears pointing out that you can't say the same for the position that matters above all, quarterback.

While Thompson replaced Brett Favre with another sure-fire Pro Football Hall of Famer in Aaron Rodgers, the Vikings have utterly failed at manning the game’s most important position. If you don’t get that right, there’s a really good chance the rest won’t matter.

Ever since Daunte Culpepper's career nosedived in 2005 with Randy Moss' departure and later a severe knee injury, the Vikings have come up short at quarterback because of mistakes of commission and omission.

Spielman drafted Christian Ponder at No. 12 overall in 2011; passed on Russell Wilson with the third pick of the third round in 2012 in favor of cornerback Josh Robinson; traded up for Teddy Bridgewater at No. 32 in ’14 with Jimmy Garoppolo still on the board; and traded first- and fourth-round picks for broken-down Sam Bradford last year.

Spielman made a nice move signing Case Keenum as a backup last offseason, and Keenum has rewarded him (9-3 record as a starter, 98.9 rating). But he’s not the answer, either. If the Vikings don’t win the Super Bowl this season – and I’m betting strongly against them – it’ll be because of their quarterback.

Still, kudos to Spielman. He caught the Packers this year, and he did it the old-fashioned way, via the draft. That’s supposed to be Thompson’s thing.

[rilamann]

It's going to be hilarious when/if Dom Capers gets fired and not much changes and the defense still sucks next season. If you want to see a real change and real improvement, TT and especially MM must be shown the door right along with Capers.

The problem with the Packers goes a hell of a lot deeper than just Dom Capers. It's beyond comical to me that so many Packer fans think that if we fire Dom Capers everything will be fine LMAO.

[MickeyDavis]

I don't think anyone thinks replacing Capers solves all defensive problems. But it certainly needs to be done.