RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75 (Chris Bosh)

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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75 

Post#21 » by trex_8063 » Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:36 pm

Thru post #20:

Hal Greer - 2 (dhsilv2, Clyde Frazier)
Chris Bosh - 1 (pandrade83)
Tony Parker - 1 (trex_8063)
Mel Daniels - 1 (penbeast0)


OK, so Greer is once again in the runoff. Will go to the secondary votes to see who he's against. Chris Bosh is the only one of the others who received a secondary vote, so it'll be him (vote transferred below):

Hal Greer - 2 (dhsilv2, Clyde Frazier)
Chris Bosh - 2 (pandrade83, trex_8063)


If your name isn't shown ^^^here, please state your pick between Greer and Bosh with reasons why. Runoff to conclude in ~24 hours.

Spoiler:
eminence wrote:.

penbeast0 wrote:.

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

PaulieWal wrote:.

Colbinii wrote:.

Texas Chuck wrote:.

drza wrote:.

Dr Spaceman wrote:.

fpliii wrote:.

euroleague wrote:.

pandrade83 wrote:.

Hornet Mania wrote:.

Eddy_JukeZ wrote:.

SactoKingsFan wrote:.

Blackmill wrote:.

JordansBulls wrote:.

RSCS3_ wrote:.

BasketballFan7 wrote:.

micahclay wrote:.

ardee wrote:.

RCM88x wrote:.

Tesla wrote:.

Joao Saraiva wrote:.

LA Bird wrote:.

MyUniBroDavis wrote:.

kayess wrote:.

2klegend wrote:.

MisterHibachi wrote:.

70sFan wrote:.

mischievous wrote:.

Doctor MJ wrote:.

Dr Positivity wrote:.

Jaivl wrote:.

Bad Gatorade wrote:.

andrewww wrote:.

Moonbeam wrote:.

Cyrusman122000 wrote:.

Winsome Gerbil wrote:.

Narigo wrote:.

wojoaderge wrote:.

TrueLAfan wrote:.

90sAllDecade wrote:.

Outside wrote:.

scabbarista wrote:.

janmagn wrote:.

Arman_tanzarian wrote:.

oldschooled wrote:.

Pablo Novi wrote:.

john248 wrote:.

mdonnelly1989 wrote:.

Senior wrote:.

twolves97 wrote:.

CodeBreaker wrote:.

JoeMalburg wrote:.

dhsilv2 wrote:.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75: RUNOFF! Greer vs Bosh 

Post#22 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:57 pm

Runoff Vote: Chris Bosh

I think Bosh probably deserves more credit than he gets. He's proven to be a Top 10 level alpha, and also someone who can take on something of a contorted role player role effectively without getting passive. There really aren't many players capable of doing all that.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75: RUNOFF! Greer vs Bosh 

Post#23 » by Outside » Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:11 pm

Runoff vote: Hal Greer

Very good all-around player who excelled in the PS, highlighted by 27.7 pts, 5.9 reb, and 5.3 ast for the 1967 Philly team that won the title with Wilt, Chet Walker, Billy Cunningham, Walli Jones, and Luke Jackson. His efficiency was good for his era. Highly respected by teammates and opponents.

Compared to Bosh, Greer has a significant longevity advantage in both RS and PS. I'll give Bosh the defensive advantage, but Greer was more of a number one offensive option on good teams than Bosh and performed well in that role.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75: RUNOFF! Greer vs Bosh 

Post#24 » by iggymcfrack » Fri Dec 29, 2017 1:24 am

Outside wrote:Runoff vote: Hal Greer

Very good all-around player who excelled in the PS, highlighted by 27.7 pts, 5.9 reb, and 5.3 ast for the 1967 Philly team that won the title with Wilt, Chet Walker, Billy Cunningham, Walli Jones, and Luke Jackson. His efficiency was good for his era. Highly respected by teammates and opponents.

Compared to Bosh, Greer has a significant longevity advantage in both RS and PS. I'll give Bosh the defensive advantage, but Greer was more of a number one offensive option on good teams than Bosh and performed well in that role.


Those Sixers played at a pace of 122.9 which was close to league average then. If you normalize that to the (league averagish) pace the Heat played at when Bosh won his first ring, those numbers come out to 20.6/4.4/3.9. And those are numbers he averaged one postseason, not to be matched at any other point in his career RS or PS. And he did it on a TS% of .487 while playing 46 MPG for a 16.1 PER. Color me unimpressed.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75: RUNOFF! Greer vs Bosh 

Post#25 » by dhsilv2 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 2:28 am

iggymcfrack wrote:
Outside wrote:Runoff vote: Hal Greer

Very good all-around player who excelled in the PS, highlighted by 27.7 pts, 5.9 reb, and 5.3 ast for the 1967 Philly team that won the title with Wilt, Chet Walker, Billy Cunningham, Walli Jones, and Luke Jackson. His efficiency was good for his era. Highly respected by teammates and opponents.

Compared to Bosh, Greer has a significant longevity advantage in both RS and PS. I'll give Bosh the defensive advantage, but Greer was more of a number one offensive option on good teams than Bosh and performed well in that role.


Those Sixers played at a pace of 122.9 which was close to league average then. If you normalize that to the (league averagish) pace the Heat played at when Bosh won his first ring, those numbers come out to 20.6/4.4/3.9. And those are numbers he averaged one postseason, not to be matched at any other point in his career RS or PS. And he did it on a TS% of .487 while playing 46 MPG for a 16.1 PER. Color me unimpressed.


For the era that was both a reasonably good PER and TS% for a guard. There are no 3 pointers for him to shoot back then. He was creating spacing with a jumper....jumpers aren't going to draw massive fouls.

He averaged 25.8 6.1 4.2 on 51.2 TS% the very next year and with a PER of 17.6. They lost in 7 games to the celtics which included a game 6 loss despite him scoring 40 on 15 of 24. Seems like he was even better the very next year with very similar numbers.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75: RUNOFF! Greer vs Bosh 

Post#26 » by pandrade83 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:01 am

Outside wrote:Runoff vote: Hal Greer

Very good all-around player who excelled in the PS, highlighted by 27.7 pts, 5.9 reb, and 5.3 ast for the 1967 Philly team that won the title with Wilt, Chet Walker, Billy Cunningham, Walli Jones, and Luke Jackson. His efficiency was good for his era. Highly respected by teammates and opponents.

Compared to Bosh, Greer has a significant longevity advantage in both RS and PS. I'll give Bosh the defensive advantage, but Greer was more of a number one offensive option on good teams than Bosh and performed well in that role.


Bosh has more RS & PS Win Shares - that's a pretty good indicator of meaningful longevity.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75: RUNOFF! Greer vs Bosh 

Post#27 » by trex_8063 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:12 am

Thru post #26:

Hal Greer - 3 (Outside, dhsilv2, Clyde Frazier)
Chris Bosh - 3 (pandrade83, trex_8063, Doctor MJ)


~12 hours left on this runoff.


Spoiler:
eminence wrote:.

penbeast0 wrote:.

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

PaulieWal wrote:.

Colbinii wrote:.

Texas Chuck wrote:.

drza wrote:.

Dr Spaceman wrote:.

fpliii wrote:.

euroleague wrote:.

pandrade83 wrote:.

Hornet Mania wrote:.

Eddy_JukeZ wrote:.

SactoKingsFan wrote:.

Blackmill wrote:.

JordansBulls wrote:.

RSCS3_ wrote:.

BasketballFan7 wrote:.

micahclay wrote:.

ardee wrote:.

RCM88x wrote:.

Tesla wrote:.

Joao Saraiva wrote:.

LA Bird wrote:.

MyUniBroDavis wrote:.

kayess wrote:.

2klegend wrote:.

MisterHibachi wrote:.

70sFan wrote:.

mischievous wrote:.

Doctor MJ wrote:.

Dr Positivity wrote:.

Jaivl wrote:.

Bad Gatorade wrote:.

andrewww wrote:.

Moonbeam wrote:.

Cyrusman122000 wrote:.

Winsome Gerbil wrote:.

Narigo wrote:.

wojoaderge wrote:.

TrueLAfan wrote:.

90sAllDecade wrote:.

Outside wrote:.

scabbarista wrote:.

janmagn wrote:.

Arman_tanzarian wrote:.

oldschooled wrote:.

Pablo Novi wrote:.

john248 wrote:.

mdonnelly1989 wrote:.

Senior wrote:.

twolves97 wrote:.

CodeBreaker wrote:.

JoeMalburg wrote:.

dhsilv2 wrote:.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75: RUNOFF! Greer vs Bosh 

Post#28 » by pandrade83 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:27 am

Gotta ask the Greer supporters:

He peaked out in an era of heavy expansion where the NBA goes from 9 teams to 12 and the total # of basketball teams goes from 9 to 23. He and Bosh have pretty similar accomplishments/accolades - does the strength of era piece matter at all here?
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75: RUNOFF! Greer vs Bosh 

Post#29 » by dhsilv2 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:12 am

pandrade83 wrote:Gotta ask the Greer supporters:

He peaked out in an era of heavy expansion where the NBA goes from 9 teams to 12 and the total # of basketball teams goes from 9 to 23. He and Bosh have pretty similar accomplishments/accolades - does the strength of era piece matter at all here?


1 all nba vs 7. Longer career. Was much more important to his title team.

Era matters but Bosh honestly doesnt fit here for me.

Meanwhile does greer being a stand out at a possition where the game greatly hurt guards game or having an insanely long career back when careers were shorter not matter either?

Greer has the most all nbas of anyone left. He has best scorer on a title team, better than league average ts%, and is generally seen as a top 50 guy. I think him just now getting play illistrates that we are adjusting him down for his era.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75: RUNOFF! Greer vs Bosh 

Post#30 » by Owly » Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:54 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
pandrade83 wrote:Gotta ask the Greer supporters:

He peaked out in an era of heavy expansion where the NBA goes from 9 teams to 12 and the total # of basketball teams goes from 9 to 23. He and Bosh have pretty similar accomplishments/accolades - does the strength of era piece matter at all here?


1 all nba vs 7. Longer career. Was much more important to his title team.

1) Bosh versus Duncan, Garnett, Nowitzki (all top 20 guys), Gasol (top 50). Even if All-NBA wasn't a poor, very crude tool (e.g. Carmelo 6x All-NBA vs Bosh 1x); Bosh before he sacrificed some of his "star" stats (and thus much of his all-NBA chances), was competing with a ton of elite power forwards (especially problematic for those who voted rigidly on positions). What is the competition beyond West, Robertson and Sam Jones for Greer years. What bar does Greer have to meet to win this accolade? Lenny Wilkens? Dick Barnett? Then beyond the problem of all-NBA as a quality measure, and of quality of rivals, there's just the maths of it. Greer's all NBA's were coming in 9,9,9,9, 10, 12 and 14 team league. He had to be top 4 (only ever 3 or 4) of 18 primary minute getting guards for the majority of his career. Greer had to be top 22.22% to be All-NBA mostly, then top 20% once, then 16.666 once, then 14.29% once. Bosh's third team made appearance, notionally made him a top 10% player at the forward position (something, Greer, always being 2nd tier wasn't really, though he has a chance of being the player straddling that line).

dhsilv2 wrote:Era matters but Bosh honestly doesnt fit here for me.

Evidence as to why might be nice. cf: trex's Parker support tables which show Bosh as the top player by boxscore composites and RAPM composites. Now one could certainly argue with methodology at the margins (different weightings to playoffs for the boxscore stuff, how much you can combine different RAPM variants ... honestly I don't know enough about that) but Bosh very clearly does appear to fit very much in the conversation here.
dhsilv2 wrote:Meanwhile does greer being a stand out at a possition where the game greatly hurt guards game or having an insanely long career back when careers were shorter not matter either?

Presuposes Greer being a standout. Metrically he wasn't, except for minutes logged. He's 10th amongst 60s guards with over 6500 minutes in PER (6th if taking it to 10000, which rewards his longevity but penalises others for not alligning their best years with a calendar decade) http://bkref.com/tiny/Hvm3S; 8th in WS/48. In both cases, Robertson and West clearly "stand out". Then in WS/48 Sam Jones and Frazier create separation and "stand out" (and given they're also both top 4 in PER could be aruged as generally "standing out"). Greer does not really "stand out". He's just a very good member, the leader perhaps given his minutes, of the rest of the pack. He's third across the era for win shares, (though I've lined it up neatly with his career, that's not really a factor, Greer is 39th all-time in career minutes and clearly ahead of most of his peers) and that's a tribute to his ability to stay on the court for a long time. Nevertheless, even after accounting for the position not being one that - at that time - it was easy to put up boxscore production, Greer doesn't really stand out from his peers in terms of the quality of his play. There's value to being consistently, "good" but hard to look at these and say standout: http://bkref.com/tiny/v2nMX, http://bkref.com/tiny/XEgla.
dhsilv2 wrote:Greer has the most all nbas of anyone left. He has best scorer on a title team, better than league average ts%, and is generally seen as a top 50 guy. I think him just now getting play illistrates that we are adjusting him down for his era.

The first point has been covered. I'd argue with "best scorer", he was the highest total/ppg scorer specifically within the playoffs. He was not (amongst rotation players) the most prolific per minute scorer in regular season or playoffs (both Cunningham), the highest total/ppg scorer in the regular season (Chamberlain) or the most efficient scorer or noteworthily efficient, in either RS or playoffs (Chamberlain leading in TS% for both, in the playoffs tied with Walker; Walker and Costello both also standout as good for this in RS though Costello's injuries meant he wasn't really playing in the playoffs).

Yes, above league average ts% but not by any great margin, and when scoring is perhaps your greatest advantage ...

Then too "generally seen as a top 50 guy" by whom and when? Greer wasn't unanimous for top 50 from quite some time ago (Patterson and Fisher ranking him 61st in 1988 -and even excluding pre-NBA players, Greer wouldn't make top 50). I've got one publication (from magazine and book rankings) putting him as top 50 post-millenium, Bill Simmons, and even he had him 46th in the 2009 version, then 48th in 2010 and honestly, I'm confident he'd push at least 3 more players beyond Greer in the intervening years.

And to be clear it's not that I can't see the possibility of him here. We've got poor tools for evaluating D at the time. If you're bullish on him as a shooter (FT% is fine for a guard but nothing noteworthy, especially for a shooter, TS% fine, but nothing like what the elite guards showed was possible for a guard at the time) and defender, and you move his prime up mentally and that makes all those minutes that much more valuable. But on the limited data we've got, I'm not there. I think he's probably got a very wide plausible range, I just think it takes a more optimistic perspective on him than I have to support him around here.

[Edit: Forgot to touch on "more important to title team"? By what measure? To what extent does this matter in evaluating entire careers?]
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75: RUNOFF! Greer vs Bosh 

Post#31 » by dhsilv2 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 2:21 pm

Owly wrote:[Edit: Forgot to touch on "more important to title team"? By what measure? To what extent does this matter in evaluating entire careers?]


My actual vote i think covers the metrics, so it seems odd to get into it here given this was mostly about if I was adjusting him to era which is what I was discussing. Anyway I think I covered or at least put up better comments for you to quote and question there for your questions on PER and other metrics.

Now this is however an interesting question. I'll be honest, I'm not sure Bosh was needed on the heat teams to win. 2012 he provided a 0.0 BPM, 19.7 PER, and .183 WS/48 in 14 games. Their toughest series was Boston where he only played 3 games. 11.7 points and 7 rebounds per game. I'd argue he was extremely replaceable given that. 2013 doesn't score out with him being clearly needed either. He did play the full playoffs, 16.8 PER, 2.7 BPM, and .140 WS/48. He was good. Against the pacers (7 game series) he had a GmSc of 6.6, behind Chalmers. Against the spurs in another 7 gamer he was better 12.1 GmSC. I'd argue he was a mission critical guy but not a stand out. Now as for Greer you bring up an interesting point. Without him could they get a replacement guy to create spacing (bosh's job was this as well and yes he was replaceable in that role imo) and pickup the scoring role he had? WS/48 doesn't think he was more important than Walker or Cunningham after all. This all goes back to my vote for Greer which is based on how poor the guard position was at the time and his value as one of the few guys who could score in volumes with a jumper and could do so at an above league average TS%. I suspect unlike today his volume scoring due it being from jump shots at a very nice (not elite, he's no West) TS% had significant value in terms of impact which is why he played the extreme high minutes (poor replacements) and why he was as highly regarded.

As we both know we neither have game footage or the data to make truly informed decisions on players from this era. I have to take what I have and haven't heard about the player and the limited footage to make judgments. I see no major negatives and I see him being a guy who consistently was very good, but not elite in a role/position that had an absurdly thin amount of talent. His replacement cost was higher than most players left on the board if you will.

The final thought I had on him. Could you tell the nba story without him? Would the story change without him?

I'm not sure, but I'm sure the story would be fine without Bosh. I'm still rather confident that without Greer Wilt doesn't have a ring and I think that does change the nba story...I'm just not sure if Greer needs a few pages written in the book of the nba because of that, but I think maybe he needs to get his due.

Off topic but of the people left at power forward Chris Webber imo was clearly a better number 1 players and Horce Grant was a better number 3. I see Grant as a last 5 in consideration and I see Bosh as just ahead of him.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75: RUNOFF! Greer vs Bosh 

Post#32 » by trex_8063 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:44 pm

Thru post #31:

Hal Greer - 3 (Outside, dhsilv2, Clyde Frazier)
Chris Bosh - 3 (pandrade83, trex_8063, Doctor MJ)


Spoiler:
Owly wrote:.


Owly, I've given all registered panel members fair notification of time limits on the thread/runoff, and we're still stuck here. I've asked/urged you many times to join the panel, and you have sporadically provided some good content within these threads. As a well-respected poster (who I've just added to the panel, should you elect to vote at any time), would you be willing [please] to take a stand with one candidate and break this tie?
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"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75: RUNOFF! Greer vs Bosh 

Post#33 » by trex_8063 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:52 pm

Owly wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
pandrade83 wrote:Gotta ask the Greer supporters:

He peaked out in an era of heavy expansion where the NBA goes from 9 teams to 12 and the total # of basketball teams goes from 9 to 23. He and Bosh have pretty similar accomplishments/accolades - does the strength of era piece matter at all here?


1 all nba vs 7. Longer career. Was much more important to his title team.

1) Bosh versus Duncan, Garnett, Nowitzki (all top 20 guys), Gasol (top 50). Even if All-NBA wasn't a poor, very crude tool (e.g. Carmelo 6x All-NBA vs Bosh 1x);


In addition to the mentioned Duncan, KG, Dirk, Pau, and Melo, I'd add in Lebron, Paul Pierce, few really good years of Elton Brand, and Kevin Durant also coming into his prime during Bosh's late prime (EDIT: up against Shawn Marion, too, I guess; he was seriously balling in '06 at least). Seriously, to get any All-NBA honors up against that competition is no small achievement (especially for someone we're considering for ["merely"] top 75 status).
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75: RUNOFF! Greer vs Bosh 

Post#34 » by dhsilv2 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:59 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
Owly wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
1 all nba vs 7. Longer career. Was much more important to his title team.

1) Bosh versus Duncan, Garnett, Nowitzki (all top 20 guys), Gasol (top 50). Even if All-NBA wasn't a poor, very crude tool (e.g. Carmelo 6x All-NBA vs Bosh 1x);


In addition to the mentioned Duncan, KG, Dirk, Pau, and Melo, I'd add in Lebron, Paul Pierce, few really good years of Elton Brand, and Kevin Durant also coming into his prime during Bosh's late prime. Seriously, to get any All-NBA honors up against that competition is no small achievement (especially for someone we're considering for ["merely"] top 75 status). EDIT: Shawn Marion, too, I guess; he was seriously balling in '06 at least.


Well Elton Brand I think opens the door here a bit as he's not getting any consideration. Despite some discussion neither is Marion (who I have over Bosh and firmly). No discussion of Boozer (08). He had a decent 2013 but David Lee made it, not him. Aldridge is a multiple time all nba guy, Bosh isn't.

I do'nt deny there was a glut of talent at the 4 during his era, but that goes back to if rules/style were good for 4's or the 4's were just strong during that era.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75: RUNOFF! Greer vs Bosh 

Post#35 » by Owly » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:00 pm

Spoiler:
dhsilv2 wrote:
Owly wrote:[Edit: Forgot to touch on "more important to title team"? By what measure? To what extent does this matter in evaluating entire careers?]


My actual vote i think covers the metrics, so it seems odd to get into it here given this was mostly about if I was adjusting him to era which is what I was discussing. Anyway I think I covered or at least put up better comments for you to quote and question there for your questions on PER and other metrics.

Now this is however an interesting question. I'll be honest, I'm not sure Bosh was needed on the heat teams to win. 2012 he provided a 0.0 BPM, 19.7 PER, and .183 WS/48 in 14 games. Their toughest series was Boston where he only played 3 games. 11.7 points and 7 rebounds per game. I'd argue he was extremely replaceable given that. 2013 doesn't score out with him being clearly needed either. He did play the full playoffs, 16.8 PER, 2.7 BPM, and .140 WS/48. He was good. Against the pacers (7 game series) he had a GmSc of 6.6, behind Chalmers. Against the spurs in another 7 gamer he was better 12.1 GmSC. I'd argue he was a mission critical guy but not a stand out. Now as for Greer you bring up an interesting point. Without him could they get a replacement guy to create spacing (bosh's job was this as well and yes he was replaceable in that role imo) and pickup the scoring role he had? WS/48 doesn't think he was more important than Walker or Cunningham after all. This all goes back to my vote for Greer which is based on how poor the guard position was at the time and his value as one of the few guys who could score in volumes with a jumper and could do so at an above league average TS%. I suspect unlike today his volume scoring due it being from jump shots at a very nice (not elite, he's no West) TS% had significant value in terms of impact which is why he played the extreme high minutes (poor replacements) and why he was as highly regarded.

As we both know we neither have game footage or the data to make truly informed decisions on players from this era. I have to take what I have and haven't heard about the player and the limited footage to make judgments. I see no major negatives and I see him being a guy who consistently was very good, but not elite in a role/position that had an absurdly thin amount of talent. His replacement cost was higher than most players left on the board if you will.

The final thought I had on him. Could you tell the nba story without him? Would the story change without him?

I'm not sure, but I'm sure the story would be fine without Bosh. I'm still rather confident that without Greer Wilt doesn't have a ring and I think that does change the nba story...I'm just not sure if Greer needs a few pages written in the book of the nba because of that, but I think maybe he needs to get his due.

Off topic but of the people left at power forward Chris Webber imo was clearly a better number 1 players and Horce Grant was a better number 3. I see Grant as a last 5 in consideration and I see Bosh as just ahead of him.

Since we're chopping down to smaller bits of the debate, I'll just give my summary and try to leave it here.
1) I'm not sure that I always understand what you're saying. Your first paragraph for instance is only about "metrics" ... I think notionally in response to something about "what makes Greer 'more important' than Bosh"? There has been no metric comparison of the two. Or is "metric covered" a dismissal of everything else written? I think, given the array metrics discussed (including "impact" metrics) I don't think it has been in any manner favourable to Greer.

2) You appear to weigh very heavily upon titles and "career importance"/ legacy. My problem is people don't tend to do this consistently. It's never clear whether what is important is being a "star" on a winner, or just having one, or two really good playoffs, or playing really well in one or two arbirarily chosen games (arbitrary because highlighting any one player in any one game as decisive ignores that all the other players on each team have put it into a position whereby removing this player or that players contributions is "decisive"). How do you consistently value playoff performance. This is more general than specifically at you but it's a problem that I percieve often in this method. Where for instance would you advocate for Derrek Dickey, John Salley, Ron Harper, Cedric Maxwell? All of them tended to elevate their games in the playoffs, did so on title teams and so if they hadn't history would plausibly be different? What about Gus Williams, who turned it up consistently in the playoffs but only got one title (if we are playing the simplistic, isolate one player's, one game (7)'s stats blame game, what does 0/14 do to DJ's reputation)? Where is Frank Ramsey, he could easily be identified as hugely important in Boston's '57 and '59 playoff runs (both featuring 7 game series, fwiw)? What about Bobby Wanzer? Any comprehensive history of the playoffs would have to focus on these guys. Or if it's in the one title run how about Chris Andersen ('13)? Channing Frye ('16)? Don Nelson ('69)? Tiago Splitter ('14)? If you replace those guys with replacement level players their teams get clearly worse because those players were playing really well in these small samples. Frye's is a pretty unique skillset too.

3) Career importance / legacy methods have a lot of subjectivity and luck to them. Does your "magic away Greer" notion mean minutes going to a replacement level player? To league average starting guard? I'd argue there's a huge difference between the two. Then too can we have Costello back as a replacement? They might be better. Or are we arguing that they're clearly worse if you remove both of their starting two guards from the start of the season ... isn't every team? And even then ... is that enough to stop them winning the title? As it happened the most games they actually dropped in a series is two. But yes the guards at that point are pretty thin. Are we imagining this team without Greer (and Costello?) doesn't try to replace him moving some of their forward depth? Should backup quality be this much of a factor? Isn't this too much of a parlour game?

As before I could see Greer's upside being here if he was a superlative shooter (better than FT% and TS% indicate) and a better than good defender. But I don't get picking him as clearly ahead of the pack at his position (other than in minutes played) or as supremely important to a title team.

FWIW, amongst guards, on "title-turners" as before I'd take Gus Williams, Ramsey (if considered a guard) or Wanzer above Greer. For full career otoh probably ... Parker, Cassell, Westphal, Hornacek maybe Price. Players I'm confident are needle movers versus an average starter. That's just talking off the top of my head though, it's moot in a runoff.


Just seen trex. Had just today been wondering if I'd be up for, if needed for, something like this. Won't commit to proper voting participation but reasoning as follows: per the above (including re-citing trex's numbers pro-Bosh), can be summarised as I'm not confident to what degree Greer was ever a [edit: very] significant upgrade on a league average starter. Better certainly, but how much? Bosh was more productive (and with clearly positive impact stats), showed more as a first option/best player and then sacrificed his numbers and shifted role and position to fit onto a winner.

Vote: Chris Bosh
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75: RUNOFF! Greer vs Bosh 

Post#36 » by trex_8063 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:15 pm

Thru post #35:

Chris Bosh - 4 (Owly, pandrade83, trex_8063, Doctor MJ)
Hal Greer - 3 (Outside, dhsilv2, Clyde Frazier)


Calling it for Bosh (and thank you for breaking the tie Owly). Will have the next thread up in a moment.

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dhsilv2 wrote:.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75: RUNOFF! Greer vs Bosh 

Post#37 » by dhsilv2 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:24 pm

Owly wrote:
1) I'm not sure that I always understand what you're saying. Your first paragraph for instance is only about "metrics" ... I think notionally in response to something about "what makes Greer 'more important' than Bosh"? There has been no metric comparison of the two. Or is "metric covered" a dismissal of everything else written? I think, given the array metrics discussed (including "impact" metrics) I don't think it has been in any manner favourable to Greer.


The metrics I have discussed are related to Greer. The question I originally responded to was if Greer was being era adjusted. My initial response was primarily to explain my view on Greer and I added color as this was a runoff with Bosh, but that was a secondary commentary. You are correct I did not do a comparison between Bosh and Greer as well…I didn’t know this would be the runoff when I did that analysis. It’s rather difficult to put that kind of time into a runoff with a 24 hour window and most votes coming before I could even get it written down. *not worth my time despite it being good to add to these discussions*

2) You appear to weigh very heavily upon titles and "career importance"/ legacy. My problem is people don't tend to do this consistently. It's never clear whether what is important is being a "star" on a winner, or just having one, or two really good playoffs, or playing really well in one or two arbirarily chosen games (arbitrary because highlighting any one player in any one game as decisive ignores that all the other players on each team have put it into a position whereby removing this player or that players contributions is "decisive"). How do you consistently value playoff performance. This is more general than specifically at you but it's a problem that I percieve often in this method. Where for instance would you advocate for Derrek Dickey, John Salley, Ron Harper, Cedric Maxwell? All of them tended to elevate their games in the playoffs, did so on title teams and so if they hadn't history would plausibly be different? What about Gus Williams, who turned it up consistently in the playoffs but only got one title (if we are playing the simplistic, isolate one player's, one game (7)'s stats blame game, what does 0/14 do to DJ's reputation)? Where is Frank Ramsey, he could easily be identified as hugely important in Boston's '57 and '59 playoff runs (both featuring 7 game series, fwiw)? What about Bobby Wanzer? Any comprehensive history of the playoffs would have to focus on these guys. Or if it's in the one title run how about Chris Andersen ('13)? Channing Frye ('16)? Don Nelson ('69)? Tiago Splitter ('14)? If you replace those guys with replacement level players their teams get clearly worse because those players were playing really well in these small samples. Frye's is a pretty unique skillset too.


We have asymmetric information and data when we look back. There’s no possible way to judge players completely uniformly. We are stuck making subjective calls and frankly when we lack good data we have to make some leaps or essentially ignore the past. I believe that we should attempt to fill in the past using prior lists, our best effort to look at player’s strengths, and to look at their accomplishments. Then we look at how they did against peers with our data and we do our best to evaluate. I’m not going to write a book to respond to each player here, but my assessment of Greer is like most 90% or more based on regular season. I do weight titles and roles on those teams in my assessment highly which can be unfair to some players, but as my reviews are mostly regular season based I don’t think this is too far off. My comments are Greer in terms of his finals run are more arguments toward other’s who value playoffs more than I do though.

3) Career importance / legacy methods have a lot of subjectivity and luck to them. Does your "magic away Greer" notion mean minutes going to a replacement level player? To league average starting guard? I'd argue there's a huge difference between the two. Then too can we have Costello back as a replacement? They might be better. Or are we arguing that they're clearly worse if you remove both of their starting two guards from the start of the season ... isn't every team? And even then ... is that enough to stop them winning the title? As it happened the most games they actually dropped in a series is two. But yes the guards at that point are pretty thin. Are we imagining this team without Greer (and Costello?) doesn't try to replace him moving some of their forward depth? Should backup quality be this much of a factor? Isn't this too much of a parlour game?


Trex did a good job in a prior post pointing out the style of Greer. Mostly a jump shooter, not a guy getting to the basket at a high rate. This to me means he was a guy creating spacing with a well above average mid-range jumper (so no I do not believe there were a reasonable number of players who could replace him in that role, two best candidates West and Jones are already in). I am looking at his TS% based on that which seems to match the limited video. I don’t believe there were many guards at that time who were that close to him in those regards for a replacement test. Greer’s PER (metric of choice by another post) and TS% were above average among his peers while he played well above average minutes. As you can see in the work I did he was a top ~5 guy in terms of PER * minutes for roughly a 9 year stretch. The case for Greer is not his peak but his longevity. The singular playoff run is not a large weighting, but for those who place value on the playoffs he had a very strong run that year and a better run the next which resulted in a 7 game loss to the Celtics (no shame there). That run did however have some mixed results, a few no shows, but also an outstanding 40 point game in game 6 which could have ended the series.

As before I could see Greer's upside being here if he was a superlative shooter (better than FT% and TS% indicate) and a better than good defender. But I don't get picking him as clearly ahead of the pack at his position (other than in minutes played) or as supremely important to a title team.
[/quote]

Again look at what’s been said here and elsewhere. Greer was a mid range jumper shooter. He was not a guy getting to the basket. His TS% given that context is very good for the era. I’m not sure where “superlative” is reached, but it really was imo at least impact level. I think Greer will be passed here (your vote I think is his death), so if you want I can address his shooting against peer guards in the next thread if you think that’s needed here.

That said, you seem to be quoting just my response to if Greer was being judge by supporters based on his era’s weaknesses. I wrote up a vote for Greer and it included analysis that while maybe it looks simple, took multiple hours to run and rerun and test for validity. I’d much rather discuss my actual case for Greer than a follow up to a question that isn’t directly about how good Greer was. Or restate it here.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75: RUNOFF! Greer vs Bosh 

Post#38 » by trex_8063 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:06 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:Well Elton Brand I think opens the door here a bit as he's not getting any consideration. Despite some discussion neither is Marion (who I have over Bosh and firmly). No discussion of Boozer (08).


I'm not suggesting Elton Brand should be getting consideration (and I'm certainly not advocating Carlos Boozer). Marion did get at least a secondary vote recently, fwiw. Anyway, I'm merely pointing out the competition he's had to get All-NBA honors.

Let's look at it this way (sort of equating each individual Bosh contended with to an individual Greer contended with):
Hal Greer's biggest competition for honors [obviously] were Robertson and West. Let's say that's roughly equivalent to the Dirk/KG duo that Bosh was facing the vast majority of his prime.
Greer's next biggest competition was Sam Jones (shall we say that's roughly equivalent to Paul Pierce? that's a bit of a stretch, but let's run with it).
Lenny Wilkens we can perhaps equate to Carmelo Anthony???
Richie Guerin had like one big outlier peak, and 2-3 other pretty good seasons (though at least one was before Greer was in his prime anyway). Let's say he's roughly equivalent of what Shawn Marion was to Bosh.
Bob Cousy was either post-prime or tail-end of his prime by the time Greer was coming into his prime. Cousy ~= Carlos Boozer, as far as competition for All-NBA honors?? (that's being generous, imo, given their primes don't actually overlap).

And that was more or less it for relevant competition Greer had for those spots (Guy Rodgers being historically overrated in my estimation: looking at his rate metrics and the consistent record of poor team offenses......he seems kinda like Rajon Rondo, but without the defensive benefit; he's certainly no bigger competition than the version of Peja Stojakovic we saw during Bosh's prime....I'd not even mention Peja as serious/actual competition for All-NBA honors).

So Bosh had basically all of the above to compete with, PLUS his prime overlapping completely with Lebron James and Pau Gasol and Tim Duncan, and those few really good years of Elton Brand, and a few seasons of prime Kevin Durant, and 2-3 seasons of LaMarcus Aldridge (thanks for bringing him up, I'd forgotten him), and 1-2 years each of prime Kevin Love, Blake Griffin, and Zach Randolph (more I'd forgotten), and 1-2 seasons of prime David Lee (for what that's worth); Paul Millsap (who's likely perpetually underrated) also missed out on honors in his career, fwiw.

imo----even with consideration of a 3rd Team spot available (not around in Greer's time)----I don't think the competition was equal at all (given all the extra worthy players around to nab them, and given I was fairly generous in some of the above).


dhsilv2 wrote: He had a decent 2013 but David Lee made it, not him. Aldridge is a multiple time all nba guy, Bosh isn't.


Aldridge came into his prime about 3-4 years later, fwiw. He has more prime overlap with guys like Durant, Love, and Griffin (though Griffin oft-injured), plus a couple years prime Draymond and AD (and a pinch more overlap with Millsap, perhaps)........but KG, Brand, Shawn Marion, and Paul Pierce have all come OUT of their primes [or very close to it] by the time Aldridge is in his. Nowitzki would only have 3-4 prime years left during LMA's prime; and Tim Duncan would only have a few "lower end" prime years left; slightly less prime overlap with Melo's prime, too. So idk, it's pretty close, though I think a little lesser, just for not having prime KG and relatively little of prime Dirk and Duncan to contend with.

Also, as Owly stated, I'd consider awards/honors an at least somewhat poor barometer for overall player quality (again: Melo's 6 honors being an indication).

But fwiw, I don't think LMA is far off of Bosh in player quality; it's perhaps more Bosh's small longevity edge than anything else that separates them in an all-time sense for me. LMA (not counting any of current season) could perhaps, imo, be considered a fringe top 100 player; is almost certainly a top 125-130 player, at least.


dhsilv2 wrote:I do'nt deny there was a glut of talent at the 4 during his era, but that goes back to if rules/style were good for 4's or the 4's were just strong during that era.


It's not just the 4's. Bear in mind, All-NBA honors doesn't require one SF and one PF for each team; it can be two SF's or two PF's (more recently, I think they just require three frontcourt players----from any position---given the blurring of the lines between positions these days). That's why I was also listing the Lebrons, Durants, Pierces, etc of the game.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75: RUNOFF! Greer vs Bosh 

Post#39 » by dhsilv2 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:22 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:I do'nt deny there was a glut of talent at the 4 during his era, but that goes back to if rules/style were good for 4's or the 4's were just strong during that era.


It's not just the 4's. Bear in mind, All-NBA honors doesn't require one SF and one PF for each team; it can be two SF's or two PF's (more recently, I think they just require three frontcourt players----from any position---given the blurring of the lines between positions these days). That's why I was also listing the Lebrons, Durants, Pierces, etc of the game.


Yes and no. The all nba selections tend to of the 6 spots go 3-3 on small forwards and power forwards, though certainly not always. They do separate centers though, so it's not 3 front court guys like the allstar has been. This is a point I've brought up elsewhere in that there is center bias in these awards.

The case for Greer is consistency and longevity. The 7 2nd team all nba's along with the work I did on PER*minutes vs peers helps make that case or at least I hope so. The argument against him is a poor peak. That said his 68 WS was 4th in the league, which was 12 teams for those counting teams. I agree that all nba's alone are not enough here, but they do provide a starting point.

I agree that the competition was worse for Bosh, but I also don't see where he was really snubbed either and some lesser guys were able to make it. He was 28 when he went to Miami and should have been in the middle of his prime. I get that he sacrificed stats to do that and the fit wasn't ideal, but I'm not sure I can give him a lot of credit for that choice either.

FYI, he was for most of his career listed as a center. If Amar'e Stoudemire can get multiple all nba center selections, I don't think the voters would have had much of a problem moving him over there during some down center years either. I don't see voters moving Greer to the small forward though.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75 (Chris Bosh) 

Post#40 » by Ainosterhaspie » Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:28 pm

Bosh was more valuable to the 2012/2013 runs than dhsilv2 wants to give him credit for. Those teams had quality defense and Bosh was a big part of that. Bosh provided spacing for LeBron and Wade to attack the basket which really helped them be more effective. His injury against the Pacers which kept him out of the Boston series long enough for the Heat to go down 1-3 (I think) was a huge problem for the Heat and came close to costing them the series and a title. He did come back for the end of the Boston series and helped turn the tide. James fantastic game six had something to do with it too, but Bosh really mattered there. He was disturbingly inconsistent on offense during those runs, but he often gets far too little credit there.
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