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Political Roundtable Part XVII

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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#181 » by bsilver » Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:18 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
cammac wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Yep, but it is still messy until the Ds have their message... If I was betting - I would say the house would fall and the senate will be tied or stay R.


I think I was the only one to call Alabama for Jones. If the Ezra Klein story is correct the sexual misconduct may have been a + for Moore in the latter stages of the election but before Jones had a solid chance without it.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/26/16810116/doug-jones-alabama-polls-roy-moore
So I can't see Mississippi not being in play likely 2 Senate races in 2018 with possible Bannon Alt. Right candidates.Mississippi 40% Afro American another 2 or 3% minorities with a high % turnout for minorities and 6 or 7% white vote it goes blue.
Also in Arizona with McCain likely a Senate race in 2018/19 for that seat because of health.

I think it is way to hard to predict the senate, especially the Democrats in Republican territory of Indiana, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana and Missouri - I could see some of those going to the Rs.

Seems likely the D's lose one or two of those Senate seats.
The D's will probably have a big win in the popular vote for the House. 53/54% wouldn't be a surprise. Gerrymandering is their biggest problem. I've heard estimates that as much as 55% may be needed to flip the House, but who knows? An anti-gerrymandering decision this year by the SC could be a big game changer if districts have to be redrawn this year.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#182 » by Zonkerbl » Thu Dec 28, 2017 11:34 pm

cammac wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
cammac wrote:
I agree with you on most of your points in that I believe the Democrats need to have an agenda. I dislike any party that runs on being against things rather than having solutions and policies.The Republicans were the party of no the Democrats need to be the party yes.
They have the ability to present a potpourri of positive messages to highlight the doom and gloom Trump America.
#1 New Trickle Up Tax policy
#2 1st stages of fixing ACA
#3 Rejoin the Paris Accords
#4 Work to fix the problems within NAFTA if they did Canada would be a willing partner
#5 Push for jobs that reflect the 21st century not the 19th

Yes Pelosi is a drag used by Republicans at the polls.
But the Democrats have McConnell and Ryan who are much more unpopular than Pelosi.
Plus Donald will be a drag in both 2018 and 20.

I'm more optimistic about the Senate than you are I think Doug Jones has created a halo effect. With proper organization some states that should be Republicans can fall Mississippi , Cruz in Texas you will have a better handle on that and Tennessee. Think both Arizona and Nevada are close to sure things for the Democrats.

Yep, but it is still messy until the Ds have their message... If I was betting - I would say the house would fall and the senate will be tied or stay R.


I think I was the only one to call Alabama for Jones. If the Ezra Klein story is correct the sexual misconduct may have been a + for Moore in the latter stages of the election but before Jones had a solid chance without it.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/26/16810116/doug-jones-alabama-polls-roy-moore
So I can't see Mississippi not being in play likely 2 Senate races in 2018 with possible Bannon Alt. Right candidates.Mississippi 40% Afro American another 2 or 3% minorities with a high % turnout for minorities and 6 or 7% white vote it goes blue.
Also in Arizona with McCain likely a Senate race in 2018/19 for that seat because of health.


I remember saying it was possible for Jones to win depending on turnout, although I did wimp out and say it was wishful thinking.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#183 » by dckingsfan » Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:28 am

Zonkerbl wrote:
cammac wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Yep, but it is still messy until the Ds have their message... If I was betting - I would say the house would fall and the senate will be tied or stay R.


I think I was the only one to call Alabama for Jones. If the Ezra Klein story is correct the sexual misconduct may have been a + for Moore in the latter stages of the election but before Jones had a solid chance without it.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/26/16810116/doug-jones-alabama-polls-roy-moore
So I can't see Mississippi not being in play likely 2 Senate races in 2018 with possible Bannon Alt. Right candidates.Mississippi 40% Afro American another 2 or 3% minorities with a high % turnout for minorities and 6 or 7% white vote it goes blue.
Also in Arizona with McCain likely a Senate race in 2018/19 for that seat because of health.


I remember saying it was possible for Jones to win depending on turnout, although I did wimp out and say it was wishful thinking.

We should probably have a prediction thread for the '18 elections. But, you would probably guess the Wizards won't make the playoffs :) - okay, couldn't help myself.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#184 » by cammac » Fri Dec 29, 2017 1:10 am

I agree that November in 2018 is a long ways away! But Trump has not had 1 peak in popularity in the year in power it hasn't been a sharp decline rather a drip,drip, drip. The question become where the rock bottom of his popularity hits. Only Gerald Ford hit a lower low briefly before recovering but that was because he replaced Nixon and pardoned him. The only legislation he passed is the unpopular tax plan which was hastily and poorly written. The rich blue states which he planned on gouging are finding work around to eliminate the damage. That will only add to the deficit and cause the Republicans to try to savage social (entitlement) programs.

The Republican Party is losing to the Democrats by double figures 538 is estimating it at 12.8% and yes gerrymandering does help the Republicans. But that spread that could easily go higher could be cataclysmic for the Republicans.

Yes the Democrats have a tough row to how in the Senate they are defending Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and West Virginia which are all Red States. Of those states I only see Missouri and Indiana vulnerable and potentially a loss but see Claire McCaskill pulling out a victory.I see both Arizona and Nevada turning Blue. It looks like a stretch in Tennessee, Mississippi and Texas but Tennessee and Texas already have strong Democratic challengers and Mississippi still to be decided for both parties. The possible Special Senate elections in Arizona & Mississippi are both wild cards.
In 2020 the role reverses with the Republicans having to defend 21 Senate Seats.
The nearest bell weather election will be in Pennsylvania 18 a heavily gerrymandered Republican district which Trump won by over 20 points.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#185 » by stilldropin20 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:51 am

the stench around this woman! I don't know who was worse. her cousin, husband, HRC, or WJC? And she would have ended up what? Chief of staff? Or just special counselor to the president of the united states? Phew! The american people knew better. We dodged a bullet there! and ended up with 4.1% UE rates. 2M new jobs. 35% increase in Market. Consumer confidence sky high. credit markets wide open. and tax breaks for 80-90% of americans. Wow! What a difference!!

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/12/29/huma-abedins-cousin-convicted-in-fraud-case-involving-fake-emails.html
Read on Twitter
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#186 » by stilldropin20 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:58 am

Read on Twitter
like i said, its a full rebuild.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#187 » by stilldropin20 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:59 am

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter
like i said, its a full rebuild.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#188 » by stilldropin20 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:51 am

dckingsfan wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:
cammac wrote:
I think I was the only one to call Alabama for Jones. If the Ezra Klein story is correct the sexual misconduct may have been a + for Moore in the latter stages of the election but before Jones had a solid chance without it.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/26/16810116/doug-jones-alabama-polls-roy-moore
So I can't see Mississippi not being in play likely 2 Senate races in 2018 with possible Bannon Alt. Right candidates.Mississippi 40% Afro American another 2 or 3% minorities with a high % turnout for minorities and 6 or 7% white vote it goes blue.
Also in Arizona with McCain likely a Senate race in 2018/19 for that seat because of health.


I remember saying it was possible for Jones to win depending on turnout, although I did wimp out and say it was wishful thinking.

We should probably have a prediction thread for the '18 elections. But, you would probably guess the Wizards won't make the playoffs :) - okay, couldn't help myself.


we should do this. an early round of predictions...maybe end of Jan. Then another mid summer. then another night before election.
like i said, its a full rebuild.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#189 » by stilldropin20 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 9:10 am

dckingsfan wrote:
stilldropin20 wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Let's face it... Trump is rolling back Obama. Next president will roll back Trump.

Nothing to see here until one of the parties truly becomes the adult in the room.

Nikki Haley will likely be the next president. Unless Trump pushes hard for Ivanka. You will know its Ivanka if she gets a more important job in 2019 like chief of staff then possibly UN ambassador in 2021. and sec of state in 2022. Paving the way for a run in 2024. I'd put it at 99% likely that Ivanka is DJT's choice to ensure his legacy. but he'd be happy with Haley. and Ivanka might not want the job. But either would be a great first female US president.

Not. Have you ever heard Haley speak? And it won't be Ivanka either - she will end up running as hard as she can away from the job as she can - plus, isn't she going to lose on the birther rumors?


not feeling Haley? I dunno, man. She has super star written all over her to me. She comes off as tough, attractive, pensive, and intelligent all at the same time when i see her speak. natural leader.

And Ivanka is just on another planet. She would be a great first president. But you may be right. She's young. beautiful. Worth billions(or soon will be). Why do that to yourself? But if she wants it? She will cake walk in there. I could see her taking NY. Heck, I dont even know if she would run at as an GOP. lol. Which is nuts if you stop and think about that. lol

I dunno tho. You really dont think Ivanka would do it? just to go down in history as first female pres? Whoever is elected the first women president, she will end up on the 20, or the 50 or the 100 dollar bill. or perhaps a $200 bill. And she will likely have the media, and congress willing to work with her(bi-partisan) so as not to come off as misogynist.

So she will have a chance to make a lot of policy and reform things. Especially if the old man is still alive and finishes his terms strong. They could get just about anything done...including the unthinkables: true and complete campaign finance reform. Complete Banking reform...possibly undo the federal reserve act and the 13th amendment. how can she pass that up? and she could get both done in one term and walk away.
like i said, its a full rebuild.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#190 » by montestewart » Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:26 am

stilldropin20 wrote:the stench around this woman! I don't know who was worse. her cousin, husband, HRC, or WJC? And she would have ended up what? Chief of staff? Or just special counselor to the president of the united states? Phew! The american people knew better. We dodged a bullet there! and ended up with 4.1% UE rates. 2M new jobs. 35% increase in Market. Consumer confidence sky high. credit markets wide open. and tax breaks for 80-90% of americans. Wow! What a difference!!

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/12/29/huma-abedins-cousin-convicted-in-fraud-case-involving-fake-emails.html
Read on Twitter

Donald Trump's cousin Lewis Trump was a total fraud too!
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#191 » by closg00 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:39 am

cammac wrote:Deplorable, Racist,Republicans
Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, a politician whose approval rating has been well below 50 percent the last couple of years, is facing a tough re-election in 2018, and is clearly inspired by Donald Trump’s recent race-baiting success, has taken the Willie Horton ad model to new depths.


https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/12/27/1728036/-Scott-Walker-Releases-Virulently-Racist-Food-Stamp-Ad-That-Doubles-Down-on-Going-Trump


This disgusting appeal to white racist failed in VA, let's hope it does in WI as-well.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#192 » by cammac » Fri Dec 29, 2017 2:27 pm

Well Doug Jones is now officially the new Senator from Alabama and shows the importance of the Democratic running credible candidates in every election. The next long shot is PA 18 where Trump won by 20 points but the Democrats have a excellent candidate in Conner Lamb a former Marine former prosecutor from a well known family in Pennsylvania.

This is the seat where Tim Murphy the champion of the unborn encouraged a lover to terminate an unwanted pregnancy. He is a typical do as I say not what I do Republican. But it is possible to pull off a victory in a unfavorable political climate.

"But as Politico points out, in the four House special elections that have been held since Trump took office, unsuccessful Democratic challengers have overperformed Republican opponents by at least 20 points in every single race."

I think Lamb will benefit from grassroots financial support from around the country and a realization by the national party to bring in appropriate surrogates to support him. This one I won't call yet need some polling data.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#193 » by cammac » Fri Dec 29, 2017 2:56 pm

Fake News!
"While the Fake News loves to talk about my so-called low approval rating, @foxandfriends just showed that my rating on Dec. 28, 2017, was approximately the same as President Obama on Dec. 28, 2009, which was 47%...and this despite massive negative Trump coverage & Russia hoax!" Trump wrote on Twitter.

Now I may be wrong but some of the Fox addicted can confirm to me is that Fox doesn't consider faxandfriends a news show rather than a entertainment show?

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/politics/trump-says-approval-stacks-up-to-obamas-despite-russia-probe/ar-BBHu01H?li=AAadgLE&ocid=spartandhp

This goes completely against any form of logic just look at the input of 538 politics he has never been north of 50% and has been trending down since day 1. His latest interview with the NYT is rather hilarious in a macabre way. He is so transparent he has a tell every time he lies when he says everyone knows. The American public is realizing that you can fool some of the people some of the time but not all of the people all the time. I can only wait till Trump take a walk through the door marked egress.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#194 » by dckingsfan » Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:00 pm

stilldropin20 wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
stilldropin20 wrote:Nikki Haley will likely be the next president. Unless Trump pushes hard for Ivanka. You will know its Ivanka if she gets a more important job in 2019 like chief of staff then possibly UN ambassador in 2021. and sec of state in 2022. Paving the way for a run in 2024. I'd put it at 99% likely that Ivanka is DJT's choice to ensure his legacy. but he'd be happy with Haley. and Ivanka might not want the job. But either would be a great first female US president.

Not. Have you ever heard Haley speak? And it won't be Ivanka either - she will end up running as hard as she can away from the job as she can - plus, isn't she going to lose on the birther rumors?


not feeling Haley? I dunno, man. She has super star written all over her to me. She comes off as tough, attractive, pensive, and intelligent all at the same time when i see her speak. natural leader.

And Ivanka is just on another planet. She would be a great first president. But you may be right. She's young. beautiful. Worth billions(or soon will be). Why do that to yourself? But if she wants it? She will cake walk in there. I could see her taking NY. Heck, I dont even know if she would run at as an GOP. lol. Which is nuts if you stop and think about that. lol

I dunno tho. You really dont think Ivanka would do it? just to go down in history as first female pres? Whoever is elected the first women president, she will end up on the 20, or the 50 or the 100 dollar bill. or perhaps a $200 bill. And she will likely have the media, and congress willing to work with her(bi-partisan) so as not to come off as misogynist.

So she will have a chance to make a lot of policy and reform things. Especially if the old man is still alive and finishes his terms strong. They could get just about anything done...including the unthinkables: true and complete campaign finance reform. Complete Banking reform...possibly undo the federal reserve act and the 13th amendment. how can she pass that up? and she could get both done in one term and walk away.

No on Haley and Ivanka Trump was born in Russia - it will come out that she isn't a US citizen.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#195 » by cammac » Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:14 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
stilldropin20 wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Not. Have you ever heard Haley speak? And it won't be Ivanka either - she will end up running as hard as she can away from the job as she can - plus, isn't she going to lose on the birther rumors?


not feeling Haley? I dunno, man. She has super star written all over her to me. She comes off as tough, attractive, pensive, and intelligent all at the same time when i see her speak. natural leader.

And Ivanka is just on another planet. She would be a great first president. But you may be right. She's young. beautiful. Worth billions(or soon will be). Why do that to yourself? But if she wants it? She will cake walk in there. I could see her taking NY. Heck, I dont even know if she would run at as an GOP. lol. Which is nuts if you stop and think about that. lol

I dunno tho. You really dont think Ivanka would do it? just to go down in history as first female pres? Whoever is elected the first women president, she will end up on the 20, or the 50 or the 100 dollar bill. or perhaps a $200 bill. And she will likely have the media, and congress willing to work with her(bi-partisan) so as not to come off as misogynist.

So she will have a chance to make a lot of policy and reform things. Especially if the old man is still alive and finishes his terms strong. They could get just about anything done...including the unthinkables: true and complete campaign finance reform. Complete Banking reform...possibly undo the federal reserve act and the 13th amendment. how can she pass that up? and she could get both done in one term and walk away.

No on Haley and Ivanka Trump was born in Russia - it will come out that she isn't a US citizen.


Yes Nikki Haley is a real super star and a ardent supporter of the sovereign state of Binomo.
You know Binomo?" the man said, to which Haley replied "yes, yes."
"They had elections and we suppose Russians had its intervention," the man said.
"Yes, of course they did, absolutely," Haley replies. "We've been watching that very closely, and I think we will continue to watch that as we deal with the issues that keep coming up about the South China Sea."


Plus doesn't even know who voted for or against or abstained on the UN vote on Jerusalem.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/russian-comedians-appear-to-prank-nikki-haley-into-commenting-on-fictional-country/ar-BBHuaJ4?li=AA59G3&ocid=spartandhp

She is a true Trumpian appointee always BS not substance!
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#196 » by cammac » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:05 pm

While not relevant to the USA except as a contrast.
New legislation that takes effect January 1 in Ontario
Minimum wages rise $2.40 to $14.00 and to $15 on January 2019
22.5% cut in corporate tax rate from 4.5% to 3.5% for small businesses to offset raise in minimum wages
OHIP (Ontario Health Insurance Program) will cover people under 25 will get free access to 4400 medications by presenting a health card and valid prescription to a pharmacy.That is in addition to giving seniors medications for a small dispensary fee.
Employees with 5 years with a company qualify for 3 weeks paid vacation from the current 2 weeks granted to everyone from year 1.
Ontario links with Quebec & California in the largest carbon market in North America in a effort to reduce greenhouse gases.

Yes I know a totally different system but which seems to be fairer to the average citizen?
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#197 » by stilldropin20 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:40 pm

cammac wrote:While not relevant to the USA except as a contrast.
New legislation that takes effect January 1 in Ontario
Minimum wages rise $2.40 to $14.00 and to $15 on January 2019
22.5% cut in corporate tax rate from 4.5% to 3.5% for small businesses to offset raise in minimum wages
OHIP (Ontario Health Insurance Program) will cover people under 25 will get free access to 4400 medications by presenting a health card and valid prescription to a pharmacy.That is in addition to giving seniors medications for a small dispensary fee.
Employees with 5 years with a company qualify for 3 weeks paid vacation from the current 2 weeks granted to everyone from year 1.
Ontario links with Quebec & California in the largest carbon market in North America in a effort to reduce greenhouse gases.

Yes I know a totally different system but which seems to be fairer to the average citizen?


cammac, couple of questions. (And i'm trying to be more "open" to your posts.) How does canada keep their corporate rates so low? 3.5%?/ really? are there offsetting taxes? for example, what are, say, employer contributions for your version of fica/ss/medicare? and what other taxes do your small businesses pay?

Another question(for all posters). Canadian citizens often come to the states for medical care. What is stopping American's from ordering their meds from canada. or going north of the border and bringing the meds back? I'm talking legally with prescriptions..
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#198 » by stilldropin20 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:57 pm

closg00 wrote:
cammac wrote:Deplorable, Racist,Republicans
Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, a politician whose approval rating has been well below 50 percent the last couple of years, is facing a tough re-election in 2018, and is clearly inspired by Donald Trump’s recent race-baiting success, has taken the Willie Horton ad model to new depths.


https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/12/27/1728036/-Scott-Walker-Releases-Virulently-Racist-Food-Stamp-Ad-That-Doubles-Down-on-Going-Trump


This disgusting appeal to white racist failed in VA, let's hope it does in WI as-well.


Read on Twitter


meanwhile,

Read on Twitter

trump just keeps connecting on painful left hooks and damaging right crosses to the establishment. deliveries are up over 2000% since 1980 and the post office cant pay for itself?? And amazon is worth half a trillion??? HALF A TRILLION!!! Thank you president Obama for what ever policies you did OR DID NOT create to enrich Amazon on the backs of the american tax payer!! No wonder Bezos (and his washington post) supported(with tens of millions of dollars) to DNC/HRC/Obama so much!!! Such a scam!
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#199 » by cammac » Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:20 pm

stilldropin20 wrote:
cammac wrote:While not relevant to the USA except as a contrast.
New legislation that takes effect January 1 in Ontario
Minimum wages rise $2.40 to $14.00 and to $15 on January 2019
22.5% cut in corporate tax rate from 4.5% to 3.5% for small businesses to offset raise in minimum wages
OHIP (Ontario Health Insurance Program) will cover people under 25 will get free access to 4400 medications by presenting a health card and valid prescription to a pharmacy.That is in addition to giving seniors medications for a small dispensary fee.
Employees with 5 years with a company qualify for 3 weeks paid vacation from the current 2 weeks granted to everyone from year 1.
Ontario links with Quebec & California in the largest carbon market in North America in a effort to reduce greenhouse gases.

Yes I know a totally different system but which seems to be fairer to the average citizen?


cammac, couple of questions. (And i'm trying to be more "open" to your posts.) How does canada keep their corporate rates so low? 3.5%?/ really? are there offsetting taxes? for example, what are, say, employer contributions for your version of fica/ss/medicare? and what other taxes do your small businesses pay?

Another question(for all posters). Canadian citizens often come to the states for medical care. What is stopping American's from ordering their meds from canada. or going north of the border and bringing the meds back? I'm talking legally with prescriptions..


Valid questions!
The corporate rate quoted is provincial and for federal small businesses corporate rate is 10% going to 8.5%. There are less loopholes in Canadian corporate taxes and for larger companies over 500K profit corporate rate of 15%. Virtually zero corporations ever paid 35% in USA any that did were brain dead most Fortune 500 companies were paying less than 20% and many zero. So now those same companies in the real world will be likely pay 5% or less.
Yes Canadian employers pay a portion of healthcare as well as employees, self employed, etc. and our equivalent to social security does as above.
Canada and the Provinces rarely give corporations grants to put factories in Canada with a few exceptions. Prime example was with Amazon bidding war to put a 2nd head office campus in North America Toronto offered no incentives rather push the city on its obvious advantages for business.
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/10/20/theres-no-begging-in-torontos-amazon-bid-keenan.html

Canada also realizes the driver of the economy is smaller business not the mega corporations. Canada also has HST ( harmonized sales tax ) which is a combination of Federal Sales Tax which will vary from Province to Province but still protects low income people with rebates.

In general Canadian individual taxes are higher but our country has a higher % of middle class than the USA. Canadians are taxed as individuals but some limited income sharing is allowed. But taxes are relative it gets down to what you get for your taxes not how much you pay for.

It is a huge industry for Americans to buy Canadian medications.
https://www.cnbc.com/2014/05/23/patients-cross-borders-for-online-deals-on-medications.html

Yes some Canadians do go to the USA for medical services but it would be minimal likely the top 1% because everyone is treated equally in Canada. I know I looked at it since I broke a tooth in November and before I had it extracted looked at same day replacement with implants offered in USA. Looked at results and found a huge negative on results on the net. Took the Canadian more traditional method which after extraction the give time for healing before implants.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#200 » by verbal8 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:36 pm

Shouldn't business leader Trump have solutions not criticism?

If he needs legislation shouldn't he ask his party to pass it?

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