Player of the Day: Andre Roberson

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Re: Player of the Day: Andre Roberson 

Post#521 » by Funcrusher » Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:25 pm

sleestak33 wrote:
Pillendreher wrote:DeLolzan and Lowry combined for 7/26. Does this pass the sleestak/hardenASG13 defensive test?


If Roberson could do that consistently I would have no problem with them starting him and playing him that many minutes but this game is an anomaly. In the last two games OKC played Toronto Derozan had 22 and 37 points so as I've been saying for years now Roberson's defense almost always does nothing whatsoever to hold the better and elite players under their normal scoring averages. I'll give him credit for playing a great defensive game but at the same time he still was 2-6 on free throws (and had to be yanked from the game for the 2nd consecutive game because the other team starting "hack-a-Roberson") and continues to cause issues from his defender not having to guard him. He probably broke even this game as far as what he costs the team offensively vs. what he gave them defensively which is one of the only times that's happened this year so I'll give him that. Most games he's still going to be a huge net negative and any team is only as strong as their weakest link. He will cost them when it matters the most.

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Re: Player of the Day: Andre Roberson 

Post#522 » by sleestak33 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:20 pm

slick_watts wrote:
hardenASG13 wrote:Even tougher for the Westbrook haters......


i'm delighted that westbrook does not appear to be hurt. it makes his early-season troubles more mysterious, though. i don't buy all the common excuses (fitting in, mental). maybe it was the kid keeping him awake at night.

hardenASG13 wrote:or the OKC thunder haters (tank, we need our pick!).


i would have preferred tanking.

hardenASG13 wrote:That said, the team has been great whenever Westbrook and adams are on the floor, which also includes Roberson usually.


except this isn't true.

with westbrook-adams-roberson on the court together the thunder score 110.0pp100 and allow 100.5pp100 which is +9.5pp100.

with westbrook-adams without roberson on the court the thunder score 113.2pp100 and allows 112.7pp100 which is +0.5pp100.

look at the difference defensively. sure you could drill down into that and find some cracks, +/- lineup data isn't perfect. but the thing you just stated is blatantly and provably false.

even other teams know the value that dre has on the court for us defensively because they foul him to get him off the court. that should tell you all you need to know.


That's hilarious! They're not fouling Roberson to get him off the court, they're fouling him because they know he's going to miss them and it gives them a chance to disrupt the Thunder's offensive flow and it ends up being pretty much a turnover because they're going to get the ball back without giving up any points. What I don't understand is why teams haven't been doing this all year but I'm sure they'll start doing it much more now that OKC is playing better. 30 million dollars for a wing player that can't shoot free throws...hilarious stuff.
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Re: Player of the Day: Andre Roberson 

Post#523 » by slick_watts » Fri Dec 29, 2017 1:54 pm

sleestak33 wrote:That's hilarious! They're not fouling Roberson to get him off the court, they're fouling him because they know he's going to miss them and it gives them a chance to disrupt the Thunder's offensive flow and it ends up being pretty much a turnover because they're going to get the ball back without giving up any points. What I don't understand is why teams haven't been doing this all year but I'm sure they'll start doing it much more now that OKC is playing better. 30 million dollars for a wing player that can't shoot free throws...hilarious stuff.


uh, no. if dre were as bad for the offense as you are claiming, wouldn't they want him to stay in the game? you can't have your cake and eat it too on this one.

and here we are again with 'pretty much a turnover' nonsense. you and your buddy in this thread enjoy comparing anything that is nothing like a turnover to a turnover don't you?

the reason it's taken this long is that dre has had a dominant defensive year even for him and teams are willing to hack and risk giving up some points / losing the opportunity for transition offense in order to force donovan into make a tough decision.

by the way, dre is now 6th among all nba players in drpm and knocking on the door of the warriors bigs including draymond green. wow! incredible for a wing player.

also: take a look at this. can alex abrines set this screen on derozan? could huestis? the answer is: no.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play
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Re: Player of the Day: Andre Roberson 

Post#524 » by hardenASG13 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 2:09 pm

slick_watts wrote:
sleestak33 wrote:That's hilarious! They're not fouling Roberson to get him off the court, they're fouling him because they know he's going to miss them and it gives them a chance to disrupt the Thunder's offensive flow and it ends up being pretty much a turnover because they're going to get the ball back without giving up any points. What I don't understand is why teams haven't been doing this all year but I'm sure they'll start doing it much more now that OKC is playing better. 30 million dollars for a wing player that can't shoot free throws...hilarious stuff.


uh, no. if dre were as bad for the offense as you are claiming, wouldn't they want him to stay in the game? you can't have your cake and eat it too on this one.

and here we are again with 'pretty much a turnover' nonsense. you and your buddy in this thread enjoy comparing anything that is nothing like a turnover to a turnover don't you?

the reason it's taken this long is that dre has had a dominant defensive year even for him and teams are willing to hack and risk giving up some points / losing the opportunity for transition offense in order to force donovan into make a tough decision.

by the way, dre is now 6th among all nba players in drpm and knocking on the door of the warriors bigs including draymond green. wow! incredible for a wing player.

also: take a look at this. can alex abrines set this screen on derozan? could huestis? the answer is: no.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play



As someone who is part of the blogosphere intelligentsia, you need to step up your reading comp, bruh. He is saying other teams don't want him to go out, they just know he will miss the foul shots, and it's a way to slow okcs offense down. YOU were saying they do it get him off the court. Nobody is having or eating any cake. He's pointing out teams foul him so they can get the ball back without giving up any points, which is generally true.

It's like a turnover, because when he goes to the line, is anyone expecting him to make 1? There is a very good chance of an empty possession with no points when he goes to the line. None of the stars get to shoot and the other team gets the ball back. Only compare Robersons free throws to turnovers, because the outcome is generally the same. His 3s were as well, but he's thankfully stopped those after 4 years.

Also: Marcus smart did just as good if not better on harden than Roberson did last night. Also had 13/6/5.
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Re: Player of the Day: Andre Roberson 

Post#525 » by slick_watts » Fri Dec 29, 2017 2:18 pm

hardenASG13 wrote: He is saying other teams don't want him to go out, they just know he will miss the foul shots, and it's a way to slow okcs offense down. YOU were saying they do it get him off the court. Nobody is having or eating any cake. He's pointing out teams foul him so they can get the ball back without giving up any points, which is generally true.


uh, no. that is not the reason teams are doing this. they want dre out of the game. you can't claim that andre roberson is bad for the thunder offense, then say they are fouling roberson intentionally (knowing they'll remove him) because they want to slow down the thunder offense. that makes no sense.

hardenASG13 wrote:It's like a turnover, because when he goes to the line, is anyone expecting him to make 1? There is a very good chance of an empty possession with no points when he goes to the line. None of the stars get to shoot and the other team gets the ball back. Only compare Robersons free throws to turnovers, because the outcome is generally the same. His 3s were as well, but he's thankfully stopped those after 4 years.


how can you be so dense? a turnover has 0% chance of points. a dre free throw trip, even if you use his season %, has higher than 80% chance of at least one point considering the odds of getting an offensive rebound. and you don't have transition opportunity like you do with many turnovers. we have gone over this many times.
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Re: Player of the Day: Andre Roberson 

Post#526 » by slick_watts » Fri Dec 29, 2017 2:36 pm

for sleestak, etc. these are three plays i highlighted from the rockets game that illustrate why counterpart boxscore stats are a piss poor method of estimating individual defensive impact.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play


in this play, dre got switched off harden with some screening. harden makes an open three on a paul george late contest. to sleestak and his cronies, this make is an indoctrination against andre roberson's individual defensive impact. even though he had nothing to do with this play.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play


in this play, dre denies harden the angle he wanted initially on his drive (and before the clip started, recovered to contest and deny a three point attempt by harden). harden drives in, and attempts a rare and off balance mid-range shot that he misses. this miss does get credited to dre by sleestak and his goon squad since it is reflected in harden's boxscore- but note that the defense played by dre in this play to force the tough shot is worth the same to dre's impact (for better or worse) as the above play where dre had nothing to do with it. that is, if like sleestak and his hate mongers, you base your entire idea of individual defense impact on counterpart boxscore stats.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play


in this play, before this clip begins dre got through two ryan anderson screens successfully as the rockets attempted a side pick and roll to no effect. dre is one of the few wings on the team that can ICE a side pick and roll consistently by the way. with ten seconds left on the clock dre plays ball denial on harden, and ultimately ryan anderson has to take a low percentage pull up three that he misses with a good late clock contest by melo.

dre gets no credit one way or another for this play in the world of sleestak and his anti-roberson acolytes since harden does not attempt a shot. but the ball denial and ICE'ing of the pnr (with anthony as the big no less) forces this late clock heave.

for people who reject any stat more complicated than points, rebounds, and assists it is shocking to me that sleestak and his conspirators don't notice this stuff going on using their eyes when they watch the games. it's awfully convenient to reject all the defensive metrics that have dre as an elite defensive player, and possibly the best defensive wing in the nba with a glib "those stats are invalid, watch the games". and then in the same breath reject the notion that dre is contributing something to the defense outside of counterpart productivity even though it's plain as day to anyone actually watching the games.
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Re: Player of the Day: Andre Roberson 

Post#527 » by hardenASG13 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:17 pm

slick_watts wrote:
hardenASG13 wrote: He is saying other teams don't want him to go out, they just know he will miss the foul shots, and it's a way to slow okcs offense down. YOU were saying they do it get him off the court. Nobody is having or eating any cake. He's pointing out teams foul him so they can get the ball back without giving up any points, which is generally true.


uh, no. that is not the reason teams are doing this. they want dre out of the game. you can't claim that andre roberson is bad for the thunder offense, then say they are fouling roberson intentionally (knowing they'll remove him) because they want to slow down the thunder offense. that makes no sense.

hardenASG13 wrote:It's like a turnover, because when he goes to the line, is anyone expecting him to make 1? There is a very good chance of an empty possession with no points when he goes to the line. None of the stars get to shoot and the other team gets the ball back. Only compare Robersons free throws to turnovers, because the outcome is generally the same. His 3s were as well, but he's thankfully stopped those after 4 years.


how can you be so dense? a turnover has 0% chance of points. a dre free throw trip, even if you use his season %, has higher than 80% chance of at least one point considering the odds of getting an offensive rebound. and you don't have transition opportunity like you do with many turnovers. we have gone over this many times.



Nah, they know he will miss the shots. Hacka is used to hold the team to less points, and will likely happen in every playoff game this year. You can completely derail the thunder offense by doing it.

Care to explain that 80% chance of at least 1 point? He shoots 33%, so odds are he goes 0-2. What percent of his ft misses are rebounded offensively by the thunder? 95%??? Get out of here with your made up percentages. His poor ft shooting aside, again, I'm happy he is no longer shooting 3s or standing out in the corner, where he severely handicapped okcs offense and was essentially useless. Have no issues with him currently, though would still love okc to pick up a veteran shooter via trade or buyout.
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Re: Player of the Day: Andre Roberson 

Post#528 » by slick_watts » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:35 pm

hardenASG13 wrote:He shoots 33%, so odds are he goes 0-2.


you would lose a lot of money in vegas. it's more likely he makes at least one during a two free throw trip than the odds of him missing both. even with 33% FT.
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Re: Player of the Day: Andre Roberson 

Post#529 » by hardenASG13 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:50 pm

slick_watts wrote:
hardenASG13 wrote:He shoots 33%, so odds are he goes 0-2.


you would lose a lot of money in vegas. it's more likely he makes at least one during a two free throw trip than the odds of him missing both. even with 33% FT.



Just like they have 80% of scoring via a high percentage offensive rebound on a foul shot :lol:

There is a 2/3 chance he misses each foul shot. If he had 3 shots, odds are he'd make one. If he has 2, odds are he misses both. He'd need to be 50% to expect him to make 1. You would struggle in 5th grade math.
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Re: Player of the Day: Andre Roberson 

Post#530 » by slick_watts » Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:09 pm

hardenASG13 wrote: If he has 2, odds are he misses both. He'd need to be 50% to expect him to make 1. You would struggle in 5th grade math.


try re-framing the question- what are the odds that a 33% free throw shooter does not fail twice in a row?

there's a 67% chance he fails on the first one. and a 67% chance he fails on the second. basic probability, you multiply those together and get .67 * .67 = .4489 as the probability he fails twice. this means a 55.1% chance he makes at least one.

what you're failing to account for in your analysis is the probability, albeit unlikely, he makes both.
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Re: Player of the Day: Andre Roberson 

Post#531 » by hardenASG13 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:16 pm

slick_watts wrote:
hardenASG13 wrote: If he has 2, odds are he misses both. He'd need to be 50% to expect him to make 1. You would struggle in 5th grade math.


try re-framing the question- what are the odds that a 33% free throw shooter does not fail twice in a row?

there's a 67% chance he fails on the first one. and a 67% chance he fails on the second. basic probability, you multiply those together and get .67 * .67 = .4489 as the probability he fails twice. this means a 55.1% chance he makes at least one.

what you're failing to account for in your analysis is the probability, albeit unlikely, he makes both.



He's a bad foul shooter. They will have to figure out the hack a Roberson in the playoffs. I'm glad he's shooting almost exclusively layups, credit to donovan......although he shoulda seen that years ago.
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Re: Player of the Day: Andre Roberson 

Post#532 » by bondom34 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:25 pm

Well that was a poor example of trying to use math.
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Re: Player of the Day: Andre Roberson 

Post#533 » by bbms » Fri Dec 29, 2017 7:34 pm

27 pages of some of the ugliest spanks RealGM has ever seen.


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Re: Player of the Day: Andre Roberson 

Post#534 » by RalphSampsonJr » Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:47 pm

The contradiction is strong with these two.
First it was Roberson ruins the offense. Now it's teams are hacking him too slow the offense down!
Wouldn't teams be doing all they could to keep him in the game if he is so damaging to the offense?!
If you think teams aren't hacking him to get him off their star player you misunderstand basketball more than we all thought you did.
The fact that he is playing as well as he is and this thread is still so active is crazy.
If you can't see Robersons value right now you will never see it and it makes me feel bad for you
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Re: Player of the Day: Andre Roberson 

Post#535 » by sleestak33 » Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:46 am

slick_watts wrote:for sleestak, etc. these are three plays i highlighted from the rockets game that illustrate why counterpart boxscore stats are a piss poor method of estimating individual defensive impact.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play


in this play, dre got switched off harden with some screening. harden makes an open three on a paul george late contest. to sleestak and his cronies, this make is an indoctrination against andre roberson's individual defensive impact. even though he had nothing to do with this play.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play


in this play, dre denies harden the angle he wanted initially on his drive (and before the clip started, recovered to contest and deny a three point attempt by harden). harden drives in, and attempts a rare and off balance mid-range shot that he misses. this miss does get credited to dre by sleestak and his goon squad since it is reflected in harden's boxscore- but note that the defense played by dre in this play to force the tough shot is worth the same to dre's impact (for better or worse) as the above play where dre had nothing to do with it. that is, if like sleestak and his hate mongers, you base your entire idea of individual defense impact on counterpart boxscore stats.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play


in this play, before this clip begins dre got through two ryan anderson screens successfully as the rockets attempted a side pick and roll to no effect. dre is one of the few wings on the team that can ICE a side pick and roll consistently by the way. with ten seconds left on the clock dre plays ball denial on harden, and ultimately ryan anderson has to take a low percentage pull up three that he misses with a good late clock contest by melo.

dre gets no credit one way or another for this play in the world of sleestak and his anti-roberson acolytes since harden does not attempt a shot. but the ball denial and ICE'ing of the pnr (with anthony as the big no less) forces this late clock heave.

for people who reject any stat more complicated than points, rebounds, and assists it is shocking to me that sleestak and his conspirators don't notice this stuff going on using their eyes when they watch the games. it's awfully convenient to reject all the defensive metrics that have dre as an elite defensive player, and possibly the best defensive wing in the nba with a glib "those stats are invalid, watch the games". and then in the same breath reject the notion that dre is contributing something to the defense outside of counterpart productivity even though it's plain as day to anyone actually watching the games.


How many wide open, completely unguarded shots does Roberson pass up every game because he knows he can't shoot? How many points would you expect a remotely competent shooting guard to score given all of those looks? How much of advantage is it that the other team is getting by using Roberson's defender to play free safety and either stand in the paint clogging it or double teaming since he sucks so bad on offense that he doesn't need to be guarded? How big of an advantage is it that guys like Harden who is guarding Roberson never has to expend any energy on defense guarding him which allows him to conserve energy for offense? How big of an advantage is it for the other team to have a guy like Roberson that they can foul repeatedly knowing that it essentially is a turnover and doing this can completely change the momentum of the game in their favor? How many other teams in the NBA do you think would start a shooting guard who shoots 22% on wide open, completely unguarded 3s and 33% on free throws?

You should post some screen shots of Roberson catching the ball wide open over and over throughout the game so we can all see that and then some of his defender standing 10 feet away from him since he doesn't need to be guarded. Then get a few screenshots of him airballing free throws and 3 pointers. Those are the screenshots I want to see...much more educational.
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Re: Player of the Day: Andre Roberson 

Post#536 » by hardenASG13 » Sat Dec 30, 2017 5:56 pm

RalphSampsonJr wrote:The contradiction is strong with these two.
First it was Roberson ruins the offense. Now it's teams are hacking him too slow the offense down!
Wouldn't teams be doing all they could to keep him in the game if he is so damaging to the offense?!
If you think teams aren't hacking him to get him off their star player you misunderstand basketball more than we all thought you did.
The fact that he is playing as well as he is and this thread is still so active is crazy.
If you can't see Robersons value right now you will never see it and it makes me feel bad for you


Teams are hacking him because he misses foul shots all the time. Him getting to the line is a bad possession, and it disrupts the okc offense. Not sure why you'd debate that, being a roberson/slick watts fanboy or not....
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Re: Player of the Day: Andre Roberson 

Post#537 » by ThunderBolt » Sat Dec 30, 2017 6:32 pm

hardenASG13 wrote:
RalphSampsonJr wrote:The contradiction is strong with these two.
First it was Roberson ruins the offense. Now it's teams are hacking him too slow the offense down!
Wouldn't teams be doing all they could to keep him in the game if he is so damaging to the offense?!
If you think teams aren't hacking him to get him off their star player you misunderstand basketball more than we all thought you did.
The fact that he is playing as well as he is and this thread is still so active is crazy.
If you can't see Robersons value right now you will never see it and it makes me feel bad for you


Teams are hacking him because he misses foul shots all the time. Him getting to the line is a bad possession, and it disrupts the okc offense. Not sure why you'd debate that, being a roberson/slick watts fanboy or not....

Are you still advocating playing Abrines instead of Roberson?
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Re: Player of the Day: Andre Roberson 

Post#538 » by hardenASG13 » Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:07 pm

Knrstz wrote:
hardenASG13 wrote:
RalphSampsonJr wrote:The contradiction is strong with these two.
First it was Roberson ruins the offense. Now it's teams are hacking him too slow the offense down!
Wouldn't teams be doing all they could to keep him in the game if he is so damaging to the offense?!
If you think teams aren't hacking him to get him off their star player you misunderstand basketball more than we all thought you did.
The fact that he is playing as well as he is and this thread is still so active is crazy.
If you can't see Robersons value right now you will never see it and it makes me feel bad for you


Teams are hacking him because he misses foul shots all the time. Him getting to the line is a bad possession, and it disrupts the okc offense. Not sure why you'd debate that, being a roberson/slick watts fanboy or not....

Are you still advocating playing Abrines instead of Roberson?


No, abrines has been a massive disappointment. I'm advocating trading him, potentially with Roberson and Ferguson, for some proven bench depth.
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Re: Player of the Day: Andre Roberson 

Post#539 » by RalphSampsonJr » Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:25 am

hardenASG13 wrote:
Knrstz wrote:
hardenASG13 wrote:
Teams are hacking him because he misses foul shots all the time. Him getting to the line is a bad possession, and it disrupts the okc offense. Not sure why you'd debate that, being a roberson/slick watts fanboy or not....

Are you still advocating playing Abrines instead of Roberson?


No, abrines has been a massive disappointment. I'm advocating trading him, potentially with Roberson and Ferguson, for some proven bench depth.


Yea.. youre looking sillier and sillier as the season goes on
All preseason you swore how much he needed to start. Now you have 180ed. Just like your mate Sleestak 180ed about Adams.
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Re: Player of the Day: Andre Roberson 

Post#540 » by hardenASG13 » Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:58 am

RalphSampsonJr wrote:
hardenASG13 wrote:
Knrstz wrote:Are you still advocating playing Abrines instead of Roberson?


No, abrines has been a massive disappointment. I'm advocating trading him, potentially with Roberson and Ferguson, for some proven bench depth.


Yea.. youre looking sillier and sillier as the season goes on
All preseason you swore how much he needed to start. Now you have 180ed. Just like your mate Sleestak 180ed about Adams.


Yea, you got me, my opinions about pro athletes aren't set in stone. He's been terrible.

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