Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIV

[ClutchDJ]

Even with John having a subpar season, after watching that stretch of Beal thinking he’s Harden & Otto not being his old self while John was out with injury, I’d rather not trade John.

[nate33]

^ I agree with PIF on Porter and agree with nate/Ruz on Beal. I'd love to get a nice package in exchange for Wall, and then build around Beal/Porter.

Thought experiment:

Would you trade John Wall and his contract straight up for Collision and his contract ($10M per year through 2018/19)?

Collison is older and doesn't have the star reputation of Wall, but he's MUCH cheaper, he is currently more productive statistically, and he doesn't carry the risk of knee trouble and a ballooning $40M per year contract.

Would you make the trade if Indy included their 2019 pick?

It would set us up pretty nicely for the long term. For the next season-and-a-half, we'd run with our current 47-50 win squad with Collison replacing Wall. We'd have no real chance for a title run without Wall's X factor in the playoffs, but we'd still be a playoff team and build a foundation for winning for our young players. In Summer 2019, everyone comes off the books except Beal, Porter and Mahinmi, who total $69M in salary. Add in Oubre's $9.6M cap hold and it's an effective payroll of $79M, leaving us with maybe $25-30M in cap room minus the cost of our two 2018 draft picks.

Furthermore, we could trade our 2019 pick at the Trade Deadline in the 2018/19 season to unload the final season of Mahinmi's contract, leaving us with $40-45M in cap room in Summer 2019 alongside Beal, Porter, Oubre and two 2nd-year players from the 2018 draft.

[nate33]

Even with John having a subpar season, after watching that stretch of Beal thinking he’s Harden & Otto not being his old self while John was out with injury, I’d rather not trade John.

There is no question that Beal needs to play alongside a true PG who can get him in his spots, but that PG doesn't necessarily have to be John Wall.

[nate33]

Hmmm. I think I'm talking myself into this.

* Trade John Wall to Indy for Darren Collison and Indy's 2018 pick. We'd also acquire a filler contract, probably Zach Randolph or perhaps Bojan Boganovic. I believe Indy has the cap room to make the poison pill provision work out.

* Next year at the Trade Deadline, trade our 2019 pick (or 2nd rounders if possible) to swap Mahinmi for an expiring.

In Summer 2019, we'd have Beal, Porter, Oubre and two 2018 1st round picks on the roster, plus $40-45M in cap room. Here are the potential unrestricted free agents in 2019:

Kevin Durant
Lebron James
Deandre Jordan
Jimmy Butler
Klay Thompson
Eric Bledsoe
Ricky Rubio
Alec Burks
Tobias Harris
Larry Nance Jr. (restricted, but LA will be shedding salary for free agents)

There's also some restricted free agents. They probably aren't going anywhere, but it'll dry up potential cap room that teams would use on our free agency targets:

Karl Anthony-Towns
Porzingis
Myles Turner
Devin Booker
Bobby Portis
Cauley-Stein

It seems risky to trade Wall right now, but it's a far-sighted move made after ruthlessly assessing our current chances at a title and opting for future flexibility. It's the kind of move Danny Ainge would make.

[Ruzious]

^ I agree with PIF on Porter and agree with nate/Ruz on Beal. I'd love to get a nice package in exchange for Wall, and then build around Beal/Porter.

Thought experiment:

Would you trade John Wall and his contract straight up for Collision and his contract ($10M per year through 2018/19)?

Collison is older and doesn't have the star reputation of Wall, but he's MUCH cheaper, he is currently more productive statistically, and he doesn't carry the risk of knee trouble and a ballooning $40M per year contract.

Would you make the trade if Indy included their 2019 pick?

It would set us up pretty nicely for the long term. For the next season-and-a-half, we'd run with our current 47-50 win squad with Collison replacing Wall. We'd have no real chance for a title run without Wall's X factor in the playoffs, but we'd still be a playoff team and build a foundation for winning for our young players. In Summer 2019, everyone comes off the books except Beal, Porter and Mahinmi, who total $69M in salary. Add in Oubre's $9.6M cap hold and it's an effective payroll of $79M, leaving us with maybe $25-30M in cap room minus the cost of our two 2018 draft picks.

Furthermore, we could trade our 2019 pick at the Trade Deadline in the 2018/19 season to unload the final season of Mahinmi's contract, leaving us with $40-45M in cap room in Summer 2019 alongside Beal, Porter, Oubre and two 2nd-year players from the 2018 draft.

I wouldn't, but the biggest reason I wouldn't is because I'd get killed in the media, and the fan base would mostly agree with the media and revolt. I'd need at least a top 15 2018 pick to consider it.

[deneem4]

Trading john for just any ol point guard and a pic is a terrible idea...

Without john wall we lose
With subpar john wall we win
With good john wall we dominate...

Without Bradley Beal we lose
With subpar Bradley Beal we lose
With good Bradley Beal we win...

U can go through and do this with any of the players on the team...

Wall not the problem it’s our bigs...particularly the center position...think about how much we play small ball and how effective we are while playing...

What’s James harden without Clint capela?
What top point guard (other than curry) can win games without they’re big?

[bsilver]

^ I agree with PIF on Porter and agree with nate/Ruz on Beal. I'd love to get a nice package in exchange for Wall, and then build around Beal/Porter.

Thought experiment:

Would you trade John Wall and his contract straight up for Collision and his contract ($10M per year through 2018/19)?

Collison is older and doesn't have the star reputation of Wall, but he's MUCH cheaper, he is currently more productive statistically, and he doesn't carry the risk of knee trouble and a ballooning $40M per year contract.

Would you make the trade if Indy included their 2019 pick?

It would set us up pretty nicely for the long term. For the next season-and-a-half, we'd run with our current 47-50 win squad with Collison replacing Wall. We'd have no real chance for a title run without Wall's X factor in the playoffs, but we'd still be a playoff team and build a foundation for winning for our young players. In Summer 2019, everyone comes off the books except Beal, Porter and Mahinmi, who total $69M in salary. Add in Oubre's $9.6M cap hold and it's an effective payroll of $79M, leaving us with maybe $25-30M in cap room minus the cost of our two 2018 draft picks.

Furthermore, we could trade our 2019 pick at the Trade Deadline in the 2018/19 season to unload the final season of Mahinmi's contract, leaving us with $40-45M in cap room in Summer 2019 alongside Beal, Porter, Oubre and two 2nd-year players from the 2018 draft.

Nothing I would ever consider.
Collison is 30 years old and nowhere near an allstar level player.
Wall's main problem now is he's lost his mid-range jumper. I fully expect it'll come back this year.
Why would we be a 47-50 win team? I expect a Wall-Oladipo/Turner team to be at that level and the 2019 Indy pick to be low 20s.
Why would we expect to sign a big name free agent considering our track record.
Loyalty is worth something, and I respect Wall's commitment to DC.
A Beal/Porter/Oubre team goes nowhere. Unfortunately we've seen the lack of a superstar means no titles, and they're not close.

[Ruzious]

^ I agree with PIF on Porter and agree with nate/Ruz on Beal. I'd love to get a nice package in exchange for Wall, and then build around Beal/Porter.

Thought experiment:

Would you trade John Wall and his contract straight up for Collision and his contract ($10M per year through 2018/19)?

Collison is older and doesn't have the star reputation of Wall, but he's MUCH cheaper, he is currently more productive statistically, and he doesn't carry the risk of knee trouble and a ballooning $40M per year contract.

Would you make the trade if Indy included their 2019 pick?

It would set us up pretty nicely for the long term. For the next season-and-a-half, we'd run with our current 47-50 win squad with Collison replacing Wall. We'd have no real chance for a title run without Wall's X factor in the playoffs, but we'd still be a playoff team and build a foundation for winning for our young players. In Summer 2019, everyone comes off the books except Beal, Porter and Mahinmi, who total $69M in salary. Add in Oubre's $9.6M cap hold and it's an effective payroll of $79M, leaving us with maybe $25-30M in cap room minus the cost of our two 2018 draft picks.

Furthermore, we could trade our 2019 pick at the Trade Deadline in the 2018/19 season to unload the final season of Mahinmi's contract, leaving us with $40-45M in cap room in Summer 2019 alongside Beal, Porter, Oubre and two 2nd-year players from the 2018 draft.

Nothing I would ever consider.
Collison is 30 years old and nowhere near an allstar level player.
Wall's main problem now is he's lost his mid-range jumper. I fully expect it'll come back this year.
Why would we be a 47-50 win team? I expect a Wall-Oladipo/Turner team to be at that level and the 2019 Indy pick to be low 20s.
Why would we expect to sign a big name free agent considering our track record.
Loyalty is worth something, and I respect Wall's commitment to DC.
A Beal/Porter/Oubre team goes nowhere. Unfortunately we've seen the lack of a superstar means no titles, and they're not close.

Some valid points. The problems are Collison - who's not an all-star - has played better this season than Wall has - and it's arguably not even close, and Wall's contract extension puts him at 40 plus million a year - which is a near certain disaster waiting to happen. You want to talk commitment - the Wiz have committed near $300 million to Wall whether they trade him or not, so it's not as if Wall's commitment and loyalty can ever be called one-way, imo. And a legit superstar doesn't have the kind of season Wall is having. Btw, Wall has pretty much never really been an efficient mid-range jump shooter. Opponents are happy to see him take them and will likely continue to.

[nate33]

Trading john for just any ol point guard and a pic is a terrible idea...

Without john wall we lose
With subpar john wall we win
With good john wall we dominate...

Without Bradley Beal we lose
With subpar Bradley Beal we lose
With good Bradley Beal we win...

U can go through and do this with any of the players on the team...

Wall not the problem it’s our bigs...particularly the center position...think about how much we play small ball and how effective we are while playing...

What’s James harden without Clint capela?
What top point guard (other than curry) can win games without they’re big?

You make it sound like John Wall is the only person on the planet who can play PG. Have you checked Indy's record? They are just 2 games behind us with Collison at PG. How is that possible? Look at their lineup. Is Oladipo + Bojan + Young + Turner somehow vastly better than Wall's supporting cast of Beal + Porter + Morris + Gortat? Or is it, perhaps, that the difference between Wall and Collison is not as large as many perceive.

You want to argue that our problem is our bigs, but the fact is, we have no way of upgrading our frontcourt given the salary constraints imposed by Wall's upcoming contract extension.

[LyricalRico]

^ I agree with PIF on Porter and agree with nate/Ruz on Beal. I'd love to get a nice package in exchange for Wall, and then build around Beal/Porter.

Thought experiment:

Would you trade John Wall and his contract straight up for Collision and his contract ($10M per year through 2018/19)?

Collison is older and doesn't have the star reputation of Wall, but he's MUCH cheaper, he is currently more productive statistically, and he doesn't carry the risk of knee trouble and a ballooning $40M per year contract.

Would you make the trade if Indy included their 2019 pick?

It would set us up pretty nicely for the long term. For the next season-and-a-half, we'd run with our current 47-50 win squad with Collison replacing Wall. We'd have no real chance for a title run without Wall's X factor in the playoffs, but we'd still be a playoff team and build a foundation for winning for our young players. In Summer 2019, everyone comes off the books except Beal, Porter and Mahinmi, who total $69M in salary. Add in Oubre's $9.6M cap hold and it's an effective payroll of $79M, leaving us with maybe $25-30M in cap room minus the cost of our two 2018 draft picks.

Furthermore, we could trade our 2019 pick at the Trade Deadline in the 2018/19 season to unload the final season of Mahinmi's contract, leaving us with $40-45M in cap room in Summer 2019 alongside Beal, Porter, Oubre and two 2nd-year players from the 2018 draft.

I wouldn't, but the biggest reason I wouldn't is because I'd get killed in the media, and the fan base would mostly agree with the media and revolt. I'd need at least a top 15 2018 pick to consider it.

By "nice package" [insert joke here] I was thinking more like a starting (or at least young) big man plus a mid-lottery pick, I wasn't really focused on cutting Wall's contract. But nate's longterm plan is very interesting.

Either way, Ruz is right that the Chris Miller's of the world would be inconsolable after almost any kind of Wall trade and many would agree with them. Ted knows that, too.

[Dat2U]

Wall for Collison? What in the hell is this board smoking? The core of our roster is 27, 24, 24, 22. Were cusp of contender status and arguably one role playing piece away from taking down LeBron in the East.

[nate33]

Collison is 30 years old and nowhere near an allstar level player.
- Frankly, Wall isn't either.

Wall's main problem now is he's lost his mid-range jumper. I fully expect it'll come back this year.
- Wall's midrange jumper has never been good and never will be. It's why he's never been a player with even average offensive efficiency.

Why would we be a 47-50 win team? I expect a Wall-Oladipo/Turner team to be at that level and the 2019 Indy pick to be low 20s.
- Because we're a 47-50 win team now, and Collison is currently outplaying Wall.

Why would we expect to sign a big name free agent considering our track record.
- Because we would be positioned like the Celtics, with lots of young talent entering their prime, plus cap room. It's certainly a gamble, but so is expecting to win a title with our current roster and absolutely no cap maneuverability in the foreseeable future. Indeed, our bench will steadily be depleted as our starters account for more and more of the cap. We will probably have to trade away one or more future 1sts just to avoid crippling luxtax penalties.

Loyalty is worth something, and I respect Wall's commitment to DC.
- Agreed. This is the best argument against the move. But it's not like we haven't been loyal to Wall. We've given him everything he has wanted in his 8 years here, including a full max extension. 8 years is a pretty long time. How many players in the league have been with their team longer?

A Beal/Porter/Oubre team goes nowhere. Unfortunately we've seen the lack of a superstar means no titles, and they're not close.
- I'm pretty sure a Wall/Beal/Porter/Oubre team doesn't go anywhere either. And they'll never get any help due to cap constraints. At least the Beal/Porter/Oubre team will get $45M help in free agents.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The single quickest way to turn the Wizards into a championship team would be to trade John Wall for the rights to Trae Young.

https://www.si.com/nba/2018/01/02/nba-mock-draft-2018-trae-young-deandre-ayton-luka-doncic

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2017/12/19/young-sets-big-12-record-with-22-assists-in-oklahoma-win/108763982/


If I were a GM this is what I would be trying to do: 1. Turn John Wall's contract into Darren Collison plus Zach Randolph. 2. Obtain the draft rights to Trae Young. 3. Build around Bradley Beal and Otto Porter.

This kid Trae Young has leader gene. I think he's already better than Steph Curry. Even if I'm wrong I know I haven't seen anything like him in the college game. He's like a morphing of Mahmoud Abdul Raouf, Avery Johnson, and also Steph Curry. Almost certainly a franchise level player.

Trading john for just any ol point guard and a pic is a terrible idea...

Without john wall we lose
With subpar john wall we win
With good john wall we dominate...

Without Bradley Beal we lose
With subpar Bradley Beal we lose
With good Bradley Beal we win...

U can go through and do this with any of the players on the team...

Wall not the problem it’s our bigs...particularly the center position...think about how much we play small ball and how effective we are while playing...

What’s James harden without Clint capela?
What top point guard (other than curry) can win games without they’re big?

You make it sound like John Wall is the only person on the planet who can play PG. Have you checked Indy's record? They are just 2 games behind us with Collison at PG. How is that possible? Look at their lineup. Is Oladipo + Bojan + Young + Turner somehow vastly better than Wall's supporting cast of Beal + Porter + Morris + Gortat? Or is it, perhaps, that the difference between Wall and Collison is not as large as many perceive.

You want to argue that our problem is our bigs, but the fact is, we have no way of upgrading our frontcourt given the salary constraints imposed by Wall's upcoming contract extension.

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[nate33]

Wall for Collison? What in the hell is this board smoking? The core of our roster is 27, 24, 24, 22. Were cusp of contender status and arguably one role playing piece away from taking down LeBron in the East.

How do we get that role player when we're capped out and all future transactions will be made with an eye toward shedding salary instead of adding it? And we're racing the clock as Gortat declines. This team can't even win 50 games. How can they be expected to win the East?

Oh, and I'm trading Wall and his $200M in future salary commitment for Collison and his $20M in future salary commitment (plus a pick). Let's not forget that minor point.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Wall for Collison? What in the hell is this board smoking? The core of our roster is 27, 24, 24, 22. Were cusp of contender status and arguably one role playing piece away from taking down LeBron in the East.

I would only turn him into Collison for one year.

(Draft rights to Trae Young by any means necessary)

I think Nate is absolutely right to look at the contract of John Wall and the long-term implications. The Wizards will not have enough money to build significant pieces around John Wall. John's knees are not going to hold up for the next four years.



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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Collison is 30 years old and nowhere near an allstar level player.
- Frankly, Wall isn't either.

Wall's main problem now is he's lost his mid-range jumper. I fully expect it'll come back this year.
- Wall's midrange jumper has never been good and never will be. It's why he's never been a player with even average offensive efficiency.

Why would we be a 47-50 win team? I expect a Wall-Oladipo/Turner team to be at that level and the 2019 Indy pick to be low 20s.
- Because we're a 47-50 win team now, and Collison is currently outplaying Wall.

Why would we expect to sign a big name free agent considering our track record.
- Because we would be positioned like the Celtics, with lots of young talent entering their prime, plus cap room. It's certainly a gamble, but so is expecting to win a title with our current roster and absolutely no cap maneuverability in the foreseeable future. Indeed, our bench will steadily be depleted as our starters account for more and more of the cap. We will probably have to trade away one or more future 1sts just to avoid crippling luxtax penalties.

Loyalty is worth something, and I respect Wall's commitment to DC.
- Agreed. This is the best argument against the move. But it's not like we haven't been loyal to Wall. We've given him everything he has wanted in his 8 years here, including a full max extension. 8 years is a pretty long time. How many players in the league have been with their team longer?

A Beal/Porter/Oubre team goes nowhere. Unfortunately we've seen the lack of a superstar means no titles, and they're not close.
- I'm pretty sure a Wall/Beal/Porter/Oubre team doesn't go anywhere either. And they'll never get any help due to cap constraints. At least the Beal/Porter/Oubre team will get $45M help in free agents.

Nate I totally agree with you.

The bottom line is the 45 million.

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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Here is an easy idea that does not involve trading John Wall:

Chris McCullough and the 2018 first round pick for Bobby Portis.

I would rather do this than trade for Boogie Cousins. Simple clean trade that would do nothing but add to the team chemistry and talent level.

Imagine having Portis and Oubre! Bobby Portis right now is the ideal stretch PF/C. His shooting is phenomenal. His rebounding is at least average if not above average.

Payitforward, how does Portis rate by the numbers? I think he might be just as good as Otto Porter.

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[nate33]

Here is an easy idea that does not involve trading John Wall:

Chris McCullough and the 2018 first round pick for Bobby Portis.

I would rather do this than trade for Boogie Cousins. Simple clean trade that would do nothing but add to the team chemistry and talent level.

Imagine having Portis and Oubre! Bobby Portis right now is the ideal stretch PF/C. His shooting is phenomenal. His rebounding is at least average if not above average.

Payitforward, how does Portis rate by the numbers? I think he might be just as good as Otto Porter.

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None of these types of solutions will work. The problem we keep running into is that Wall + Beal + Porter + Mahinmi alone will cost $107M in 2019-20. By then, the luxtax limit will probably be somewhere in the $125M-130M range. So the remaining 8 players on the roster can cost no more than $18-22M. Oubre and Portis alone will exceed that. And that doesn't even account for a competent 3rd guard and minimum salary filler for the other 5 guys on the roster.

Portis would be a one-year rental. You don't trade away a pick for a 1-year rental.

[deneem4]

Trading john for just any ol point guard and a pic is a terrible idea...

Without john wall we lose
With subpar john wall we win
With good john wall we dominate...

Without Bradley Beal we lose
With subpar Bradley Beal we lose
With good Bradley Beal we win...

U can go through and do this with any of the players on the team...

Wall not the problem it’s our bigs...particularly the center position...think about how much we play small ball and how effective we are while playing...

What’s James harden without Clint capela?
What top point guard (other than curry) can win games without they’re big?

You make it sound like John Wall is the only person on the planet who can play PG. Have you checked Indy's record? They are just 2 games behind us with Collison at PG. How is that possible? Look at their lineup. Is Oladipo + Bojan + Young + Turner somehow vastly better than Wall's supporting cast of Beal + Porter + Morris + Gortat? Or is it, perhaps, that the difference between Wall and Collison is not as large as many perceive.

You want to argue that our problem is our bigs, but the fact is, we have no way of upgrading our frontcourt given the salary constraints imposed by Wall's upcoming contract extension.

Maybe it’s because oladipo has been the 2nd best player in the east before his injury????

N we can’t sign another front court player because the contract mahinmi received and not moving gortat before the season...now his value has plummeted

[deneem4]

How many times have wall played with another superstar? All star? All nba 1st? 2nd? 3rd? All nba 1st 2nd 3rd defensive player?

Name another top caliber player who hasn’t played with any of these and what successes have they had?