Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIV

[Dark Faze]

Hmmm. I think I'm talking myself into this.

* Trade John Wall to Indy for Darren Collison and Indy's 2018 pick. We'd also acquire a filler contract, probably Zach Randolph or perhaps Bojan Boganovic. I believe Indy has the cap room to make the poison pill provision work out.

* Next year at the Trade Deadline, trade our 2019 pick (or 2nd rounders if possible) to swap Mahinmi for an expiring.

In Summer 2019, we'd have Beal, Porter, Oubre and two 2018 1st round picks on the roster, plus $40-45M in cap room. Here are the potential unrestricted free agents in 2019:

Kevin Durant
Lebron James
Deandre Jordan
Jimmy Butler
Klay Thompson
Eric Bledsoe
Ricky Rubio
Alec Burks
Tobias Harris
Larry Nance Jr. (restricted, but LA will be shedding salary for free agents)

There's also some restricted free agents. They probably aren't going anywhere, but it'll dry up potential cap room that teams would use on our free agency targets:

Karl Anthony-Towns
Porzingis
Myles Turner
Devin Booker
Bobby Portis
Cauley-Stein

It seems risky to trade Wall right now, but it's a far-sighted move made after ruthlessly assessing our current chances at a title and opting for future flexibility. It's the kind of move Danny Ainge would make.

I don't like it. First of all--we wouldn't ever add anyone in free agency. We couldn't add Al effing Horford with Brad/John/Porter as the core. We aren't adding anyone with just Brad and Otto as the core. We'd end up using the free cap space on middling roleplayers since we know Ernie is so god awful at judging them. The Indy pick is not a strong enough pick either--right now its tracking to be just outside the lottery.

The problem is the opportunity cost for moving Wall isn't that great in regards to team improvement when you take in the fact that we can't bring in strong free agents. It's a FANTASTIC move for cap savings, not so much a fantastic move for straight up team improvement.

The best way to improve this team is through young controllable talent. Grind, scratch and claw for draft picks like your life depends on it and the talent will come. We need to be buying picks, trading mediocre starters for picks, being willing to risk a first round exit for the acquisition of future talent, etc. We only need to hit one or two strong prospects.

If we take on this mentality, then we're going to inevitably have young rich talent by the time Johns deal is up. At that time Otto and Brad will be what? 28/29? They will be in their prime without Wall on the team inevitably and we may have some strong cap space to add a star if our reputation is somewhat improved by then.

[nate33]

Hmmm. I think I'm talking myself into this.

* Trade John Wall to Indy for Darren Collison and Indy's 2018 pick. We'd also acquire a filler contract, probably Zach Randolph or perhaps Bojan Boganovic. I believe Indy has the cap room to make the poison pill provision work out.

* Next year at the Trade Deadline, trade our 2019 pick (or 2nd rounders if possible) to swap Mahinmi for an expiring.

In Summer 2019, we'd have Beal, Porter, Oubre and two 2018 1st round picks on the roster, plus $40-45M in cap room. Here are the potential unrestricted free agents in 2019:

Kevin Durant
Lebron James
Deandre Jordan
Jimmy Butler
Klay Thompson
Eric Bledsoe
Ricky Rubio
Alec Burks
Tobias Harris
Larry Nance Jr. (restricted, but LA will be shedding salary for free agents)

There's also some restricted free agents. They probably aren't going anywhere, but it'll dry up potential cap room that teams would use on our free agency targets:

Karl Anthony-Towns
Porzingis
Myles Turner
Devin Booker
Bobby Portis
Cauley-Stein

It seems risky to trade Wall right now, but it's a far-sighted move made after ruthlessly assessing our current chances at a title and opting for future flexibility. It's the kind of move Danny Ainge would make.

I don't like it. First of all--we wouldn't ever add anyone in free agency. We couldn't add Al effing Horford with Brad/John/Porter as the core. We aren't adding anyone with just Brad and Otto as the core. We'd end up using the free cap space on middling roleplayers since we know Ernie is so god awful at judging them. The Indy pick is not a strong enough pick either--right now its tracking to be just outside the lottery.

The problem is the opportunity cost for moving Wall isn't that great in regards to team improvement when you take in the fact that we can't bring in strong free agents. It's a FANTASTIC move for cap savings, not so much a fantastic move for straight up team improvement.

The best way to improve this team is through young controllable talent. Grind, scratch and claw for draft picks like your life depends on it and the talent will come. We need to be buying picks, trading mediocre starters for picks, being willing to risk a first round exit for the acquisition of future talent, etc. We only need to hit one or two strong prospects.

If we take on this mentality, then we're going to inevitably have young rich talent by the time Johns deal is up. At that time Otto and Brad will be what? 28/29? They will be in their prime without Wall on the team inevitably and we may have some strong cap space to add a star if our reputation is somewhat improved by then.

This is a fair rebuttal. Most are good points, though I don't see any avenue to buy good picks. The luxtax costs are astronomical.

[NatP4]

Our absolute best realistic trade scenario is moving Morris for an impact combo scoring guard IMO.

Great idea. Come up w/ some suggestions of who that might be...?

Alec Burks? Lou Williams? I like Jerian Grant as an outside the box option.

[Ruzious]

How about the Lakers as a trading partner - especially if they're unhappy about Ball's family issues and current scoring problems? Personally, I think he's going to be very good - rookie PG's almost always have problems - look at the other rookie PG's picked high in the last draft. How's this sound: Ball, Nance Jr and Brewer (expiring) for Wall? Nance is a reserve for the Lakers and has looked somewhat disinterested the last few times I've seen him. I get the feeling they don't consider him a major part of their future. And Wall going to LA would add a ton of excitement there. I think they'd still have cap room this offseason to go after George. Is it a win/win?

[payitforward]

A. Golden State added their final piece to their 14-15 championship squad via 2nd rd pick Draymond Green in 2012. Talent wise they were similar to where we are now. It should be obvious this piece were missing doesnt have to be a big time free agent or high draft pick.

First off, getting someone as good as Green in R2 is very rare. Plus, that was a #34 pick -- we aren't going to pick that high for a while.

Even so, what you write isn't accurate: you are forgetting Andre Iguodala & Shaun Livingston. We won't be able to afford someone as good/expensive as Iggy, & we've demonstrated that we're not smart enough to target/keep a Shaun Livingston.

Green, Iggy & Livingston combined for more than 30% of their minutes in 2014-15, Dat. & they all played great. This part of your argument doesn't hold water.

B. Gortat has already declined where it matters the most. Defensively. He was always a step slow with his rotations for the most part. Now, like Markieff a great deal of the time, Marcin doesn't even make the effort.

C. The problem with the roster is the $34 million annually tied up in the C position this season and next.

That's a problem, sure. But having that problem doesn't imply that we don't have another problem: i.e. an unsustainable salary structure overall.

Moreover -- Gortat, Mahinmi, Morris -- the C/PF situation is more evidence that your comparison to GS doesn't hold water.

...Obviously its possible for a lesser player to outplay a more talented guy over a period of time but Collison is journeyman having a career year and Wall is a franchise building block bouncing back from injury after a typical slow start. There's a significant difference from how teams would defend a guy like Collison and a Wall. When Wall is engaged, he puts pressure on both sides of the ball that Collison could never do.

Wall is certainly a better player than Collison. & the difference is significant. But, all the same, you overstate it.

For one thing, Collison has been a starter most of his career. He's averaged @2000 minutes a year, & he's been a well above above average player as well.

For another, "Wall is a franchise building block bouncing back from injury after a typical slow start" may or may not be true in each of its assumptions. He didn't have a slow start last year. We hope he's bouncing back of course. & "franchise building block" according to whom?

Let me know the next time John has a season as good as James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, or Stephen Curry. Last year was John's best so far, but Kyle Lowry had a better season. I'd wager that most people who aren't Wizards fans would say that Mike Conley did too. & maybe that Isaiah Thomas also did -- or even Jeff Teague.

Don't bother arguing w/ that list. That's not the point. No one would have to argue for most of the guys on that list. John Wall is a terrific player. No he's not on the level of James Harden. & certainly not on the level of Chris Paul. & to compare our talent to GS, b/c they had Stephen Curry & we have John Wall? That's not serious, sorry.

...Creating financial flexibility? With Porter, Beal and Oubre's impending deal, we won't have cap space for years to come, Wall or not.

You miss the point. Our salary structure is unsustainable after next year. Period. Nor are we going to win a championship either this or next year. We won't be able to retain Oubre. If Sato continues to develop well, we won't be able to retain him either. It's not clear that beyond Wall/Beal/Porter we'll be able to field a team with anything much other than veteran minimum players.

We'll be breaking up this "core." It's usually smartest to get rid of the oldest member.

D. This is where the use and interpretation of advanced numbers troubles me.

I doubt it would be easy to trade Wall; I'm certain it's not going to happen. But it has not the first thing to do w/ "advanced numbers." It has to do with simple numbers -- financial numbers.

Of course, I could be wrong. Show me that I am, and how, and I'll be delighted.

[payitforward]

Our absolute best realistic trade scenario is moving Morris for an impact combo scoring guard IMO.

Great idea. Come up w/ some suggestions of who that might be...?

Alec Burks? Lou Williams? I like Jerian Grant as an outside the box option.

Yup, Nat... that's the problem. Utah won't give us Burks for Morris. The Clips won't give us Williams for Morris. & Chicago won't give us Jerian Grant for Morris.

No one will give us anyone any good for Markieff Morris.

[NatP4]

Great idea. Come up w/ some suggestions of who that might be...?

Alec Burks? Lou Williams? I like Jerian Grant as an outside the box option.

Yup, Nat... that's the problem. Utah won't give us Burks for Morris. The Clips won't give us Williams for Morris. & Chicago won't give us Jerian Grant for Morris.

No one will give us anyone any good for Markieff Morris.

But but but...we gave the Suns a top 15 pick for Morris?

[Ruzious]

Alec Burks? Lou Williams? I like Jerian Grant as an outside the box option.

Yup, Nat... that's the problem. Utah won't give us Burks for Morris. The Clips won't give us Williams for Morris. & Chicago won't give us Jerian Grant for Morris.

No one will give us anyone any good for Markieff Morris.

But but but...we gave the Suns a top 15 pick for Morris?

The Suns owner sends Ted a Christmas card saying Thank You! every year for that.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

How about the Lakers as a trading partner - especially if they're unhappy about Ball's family issues and current scoring problems? Personally, I think he's going to be very good - rookie PG's almost always have problems - look at the other rookie PG's picked high in the last draft. How's this sound: Ball, Nance Jr and Brewer (expiring) for Wall? Nance is a reserve for the Lakers and has looked somewhat disinterested the last few times I've seen him. I get the feeling they don't consider him a major part of their future. And Wall going to LA would add a ton of excitement there. I think they'd still have cap room this offseason to go after George. Is it a win/win?

Be greedy and ask for a draft pick.

It's not a bad idea.

I prefer Julius Randle to Larry Nance Jr. Randle is only 23 years old, a couple of years younger. Randall has shown that he is a little bit more versatile, has more range, and is a little bit better shot blocker.

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[NatP4]

I’m not sold on Ball’s athletic ability. He has no ego, and tries to makes the right play, very intelligent player, but can he break down defenses and beat his man off the dribble?

Like I said, my Wall package would be Ntilikina and Porzingis coming back. Nance and Ball would be a massive haul though.

[Dark Faze]

How about the Lakers as a trading partner - especially if they're unhappy about Ball's family issues and current scoring problems? Personally, I think he's going to be very good - rookie PG's almost always have problems - look at the other rookie PG's picked high in the last draft. How's this sound: Ball, Nance Jr and Brewer (expiring) for Wall? Nance is a reserve for the Lakers and has looked somewhat disinterested the last few times I've seen him. I get the feeling they don't consider him a major part of their future. And Wall going to LA would add a ton of excitement there. I think they'd still have cap room this offseason to go after George. Is it a win/win?

Ball is lightyears away from being worth trading for at the moment.

[Ruzious]

How about the Lakers as a trading partner - especially if they're unhappy about Ball's family issues and current scoring problems? Personally, I think he's going to be very good - rookie PG's almost always have problems - look at the other rookie PG's picked high in the last draft. How's this sound: Ball, Nance Jr and Brewer (expiring) for Wall? Nance is a reserve for the Lakers and has looked somewhat disinterested the last few times I've seen him. I get the feeling they don't consider him a major part of their future. And Wall going to LA would add a ton of excitement there. I think they'd still have cap room this offseason to go after George. Is it a win/win?

Ball is lightyears away from being worth trading for at the moment.

Not true - he showed dramatic improvement in December. In the 10 games, his per game averages were 12.2 points, 6.7 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 1.4 blocks, 1.3 steals, FG% of 42.2 and 3 pt FG% of 37.7. And his season rebounds and assist averages are higher than that. His shooting was terrible his first 2 months in the NBA, but that's coming around. His stats are far better than other PG's picked high in the 2017 draft.

[Dark Faze]

I would secretly offer Wall, Oubre, and a first to New Orleans but I suspect they'd decline.

[Ruzious]

I’m not sold on Ball’s athletic ability. He has no ego, and tries to makes the right play, very intelligent player, but can he break down defenses and beat his man off the dribble?

Like I said, my Wall package would be Ntilikina and Porzingis coming back. Nance and Ball would be a massive haul though.

If we could get Nktilikina and Porz, I'd do it, but I don't see NY trading Porz - he's their franchise player. Nkit's stats are awful now, but he's going to be a good one - especially defensively.

[Ruzious]

How about the Lakers as a trading partner - especially if they're unhappy about Ball's family issues and current scoring problems? Personally, I think he's going to be very good - rookie PG's almost always have problems - look at the other rookie PG's picked high in the last draft. How's this sound: Ball, Nance Jr and Brewer (expiring) for Wall? Nance is a reserve for the Lakers and has looked somewhat disinterested the last few times I've seen him. I get the feeling they don't consider him a major part of their future. And Wall going to LA would add a ton of excitement there. I think they'd still have cap room this offseason to go after George. Is it a win/win?

Be greedy and ask for a draft pick.

It's not a bad idea.

I prefer Julius Randle to Larry Nance Jr. Randle is only 23 years old, a couple of years younger. Randall has shown that he is a little bit more versatile, has more range, and is a little bit better shot blocker.

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Absolutely - can't hurt to ask for a pick. I chose Nance over Randle partly because of money/moolah/cash. Randle's had some really good games, and he's an upcoming free agent - runs the court really well for a guy his width and can score and rebound. Gotta figure someone's gonna pay him handsomely. Nance has another year before free agency, and people seem to overlook him - probably because he's not a big scorer - so I think he'll be a lot cheaper to keep both in the short-term and long-term.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

True to form I was not thinking at all about salary.

You're absolutely right, Ruzious, about Nance's contract length and his affordability. Randolph is going to get paid. I missed that eventuality.

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[dr0welf]

Is Beal or Porter available as a trade option for the right price? And what is your opinion of the right price?

I think Favors deserves to be on a good team as he is a great player but unfortunately for him Gobert is a defensive beast and is the center of our team so Favors is too good to be a backup. We have tried to use Favors as a PF but he is so much more dominant at the C position; both offensively and defensively.

I'm thinking a trade centered around Favors and Burks/Hood for Beal or Porter. Favors would have to agree to an extension as part of the trade.

Thoughts?

[payitforward]

I would secretly offer Wall, Oubre, and a first to New Orleans but I suspect they'd decline.

I don't know, I guess that would depend on what you wanted in return.

What did you want in return?

[nate33]

I would secretly offer Wall, Oubre, and a first to New Orleans but I suspect they'd decline.

For Anthony Davis? Sure. For Cousins? No.

[nate33]

Is Beal or Porter available as a trade option for the right price? And what is your opinion of the right price?

I think Favors deserves to be on a good team as he is a great player but unfortunately for him Gobert is a defensive beast and is the center of our team so Favors is too good to be a backup. We have tried to use Favors as a PF but he is so much more dominant at the C position; both offensively and defensively.

I'm thinking a trade centered around Favors and Burks/Hood for Beal or Porter. Favors would have to agree to an extension as part of the trade.

Thoughts?

Not interested. The Wizards already have too many big men who can't find playing time. We don't need another. I think Favors has some potential to break out if he got to play full time center, but I wouldn't pay a price as if he has already done so.