cosmofizzo wrote:bwgood77 wrote:cosmofizzo wrote:
Or 2014.
That three had fairly big hype, but mostly just Wiggins and then near the draft people talked about Embiid maybe being the best player eventually but he was injured. After that it was a bit of a crapshoot. But that class has been injured, and of course Wiggins somewhat of a disappointment.
I think this too is selective memory. The hype around Exum was real. There were real debates about Parker v. Wiggins. We're all blown away by Trae Young's stats but you can't tell me the hype surrounding Fultz and Ball (and the nuanced statistical analyses to support them) weren't there.
I actually think the UNHYPED draft is the exception. 2013 had very little hype, and it was deserved, except that potentially the best player of his generation was drafted at #16. 2015 had a lot of hype too, with Russell being compared to Harden and KAT and Okafor being discussed as potentially the generation's best. One of those three was a total and utter bust, and the best players in that draft, it seems to me, may very well have been selected at #4 and #13. 2016 had a lot of hype surrounding the top two picks, but not much else, and at this point, it seems like only one of them (Simmons) will turn out to be a great player.
Ayton could be abysmal defensively. Bagley may not be that effective on the next level when he has to battle with superior length and may be forced to defend the perimeter. It's hard to know whether Porter belongs in this discussion at all given that all we have to go on is his high school performance. Bamba has that boom/bust potential typical of skinny bigs. Of all these players, the guys I'm most confident will be great on the next level are Donkic and Trae Young -- and no one thinks these guys (especially the latter) will even be average defensively.
They say hindsight is 20/20 but that is clearly not the case, because people tend not to remember how unreasonable they were in the past. Admitting one's own ignorance is critical to seeing things *just a bit more* clearly.
A great player or two or three drops almost every year. No reason to think the same won't be the case this year. It's okay to win a few games. It's okay to acquire free agents. We're not going to get roasted without Ayton manning the middle. Sometimes all you need is Zaza Pachulia.
Exum had some hype (without much data), somewhat similar to Ntilikina. Wiggins vs Parker was talked about, but no one ever thought it was a real debate...kind of like Simmons/Ingram.
There was Ball hype, but there were a lot of people who didn't like a lot of things about the way he played, without a pick n roll game, funny shot, etc...many thought he wouldn't translate well, could be like Kendall Marshall, etc. He was very divisive. Many here didn't want to touch him at all no matter where we drafted.
Fultz was kind of consensus #1 among people, but still no where NEAR the hype of Doncic and the way the hype is around Young now. Fultz was guiding the worst team in the PAC 12...and there were questions of whether he is a winner, etc.
There is always hype by default because people get excited about the draft, but it wasn't quite like this for 5 or 6 guys...not that I remember...maybe 3 at times...last year was deeper but none seemed thought of on the level of Doncic, Ayton, etc, and the way Young has crept up.
I definitely think a great player or two or probably more will be found later. That doesn't mean we will be the ones to find him. You usually find those in the lottery.
I don't know if Zaza is the type of guy a bottom feeder needs...he has never played a ton of minutes on a real good team. Sure he is fine in spot minutes for the greatest team ever when they let Bogut go to add Durant, but it's not him making a big difference.
But like I've said, I think you can find a decent C in free agency and would love to get a premier ball handler or shooter in the draft. Unfortunately out of the top 15-20, there only seem to be a handful, and the best two out of the 3-4 are at the very top.
Unfortunately the 9th-20th guys are mostly wings or SF/PF types with a couple Cs maybe in there.
I don't mind winning a few games...it's good for a young team. I think we should add a free agent if it makes sense...though only a C might make sense given the subpar PG free agent class.
It will take luck regardless to get a top 3 pick no matter where you land. The only team guaranteed a top 4 pick is the team with the worst record. You have reasonably decent chance at a top 3 pick if you finish bottom 7. We should finish somewhere around there I'm guessing...in the 5-8 range. The odds drop quite a bit from 7 to 8 so 7 could be our lucky number, but we'll see.
