The Ben Simmons Megathread

[76ciology]

Unpopular. But I'd rather have that 3-5 assists per game from Ben Simmons. That means he's more aggressive in trying to get baskets. When Biid's out, I just find Ben trying to be a scorer and Saric stepping up with his playmaking, makes us a better offensive team.

regardless of ben's numbers, i feel like the team has been moving the ball incredibly well. we are 2nd in the league in ast% and 3rd in assists per game. i couldn't watch any games live recently, but looking at the recaps, there is some really beautiful passing going on. obviously you don't see much of the turnovers in these highlights, so the offense really looks like a well oiled machine.

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[PhilasFinest]

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I was at the game against the Spurs, and at 1 point, Simmons hit 5 straight FT’s.

From 1st look, Simmons doesn’t seem to bend his knees enough, and also seems to flare/cock his elbow out to almost a sideward motion on his follow through.

When he hit those 5 in a row....he seemed to have more of a bend in his base and also looked to be trying to tuck the elbow in to a more “straight”, textbook follow through.

Seeing this and another clip from today of Simmons shooting, kinda looks similar. He seems to be trying to tuck that elbow in and it overall creates for a better, more natural shooting stroke. Hopefully this is the start of him progressing and becoming a better shooter.

[sixers hoops]

All star in rookie season

http://www.nba.com/article/2018/01/04/2018-nba-all-star-voting-first-returns-revealed#/

Not sure this was posted. Ben currently in 4th. Not far from 2nd I’m guard voting

[Jams60]

Unpopular. But I'd rather have that 3-5 assists per game from Ben Simmons. That means he's more aggressive in trying to get baskets. When Biid's out, I just find Ben trying to be a scorer and Saric stepping up with his playmaking, makes us a better offensive team.

regardless of ben's numbers, i feel like the team has been moving the ball incredibly well. we are 2nd in the league in ast% and 3rd in assists per game. i couldn't watch any games live recently, but looking at the recaps, there is some really beautiful passing going on. obviously you don't see much of the turnovers in these highlights, so the offense really looks like a well oiled machine.

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Two things stand out, first I’m not sure what the chart means. Second, even if I don’t understand it, that bloke in first figures are way off the chart in comparison to everyone else’s.
Anyone care to explain?

[76ciology]

regardless of ben's numbers, i feel like the team has been moving the ball incredibly well. we are 2nd in the league in ast% and 3rd in assists per game. i couldn't watch any games live recently, but looking at the recaps, there is some really beautiful passing going on. obviously you don't see much of the turnovers in these highlights, so the offense really looks like a well oiled machine.

Read on Twitter

Two things stand out, first I’m not sure what the chart means. Second, even if I don’t understand it, that bloke in first figures are way off the chart in comparison to everyone else’s.
Anyone care to explain?

It means rondo’s passes leads to score (assist conversion) way more than Ben and TJ. Could mean Rondo is assist hunting while Ben and TJ plays in a system that asks them to pass a lot.

[Sixerscan]

Or Ben and TJ refuse to shoot contested shots and give the ball to other players at the last second to throw something up.

There's a lot of noise in that.

[HartfordWhalers]

Or Ben and TJ refuse to shoot contested shots and give the ball to other players at the last second to throw something up.

There's a lot of noise in that.

Or they hit guys at the three point line more. Someone making 60% of potential assists requires some layups and not all wide open three point shots.

But 50% assist conversion (on 3's) is better than a 60% assist conversion on 2's, the data really is too incomplete to have meaning on its own.

[crazy_me_87]

Ben has been amazing the last 3 Games. Does anybody have an idea what happened? Is he just more agressive or has Brown made him the first Option?

The last 3 his per 36 would be 27/8/8 with /3.3 Steals and 2.4 Blocks..

[BullyKing]

Or Ben and TJ refuse to shoot contested shots and give the ball to other players at the last second to throw something up.

There's a lot of noise in that.

Or they hit guys at the three point line more. Someone making 60% of potential assists requires some layups and not all wide open three point shots.

But 50% assist conversion (on 3's) is better than a 60% assist conversion on 2's, the data really is too incomplete to have meaning on its own.

It also likely includes the pass to the center at the top at the beginning of every possession. So basically, TJ or Ben will have an extra pass at the start of almost every half court possession that won't lead to an assist.

[BullyKing]

Ben has been amazing the last 3 Games. Does anybody have an idea what happened? Is he just more agressive or has Brown made him the first Option?

The last 3 his per 36 would be 27/8/8 with /3.3 Steals and 2.4 Blocks..

No question it's that he's been more aggressive. When he drives now, he's looking to score first and pass second. Previously, he'd basically only shoot if he couldn't find a pass.

[HartfordWhalers]

Or Ben and TJ refuse to shoot contested shots and give the ball to other players at the last second to throw something up.

There's a lot of noise in that.

Or they hit guys at the three point line more. Someone making 60% of potential assists requires some layups and not all wide open three point shots.

But 50% assist conversion (on 3's) is better than a 60% assist conversion on 2's, the data really is too incomplete to have meaning on its own.

It also likely includes the pass to the center at the top at the beginning of every possession. So basically, TJ or Ben will have an extra pass at the start of almost every half court possession that won't lead to an assist.

It is assist to potential assist. Not assist to pass. So, the only way that extra pass matters for this stat is if the center shoots it.

But it is definitely possible to take the same stat and decide that it means the opposite -- a low conversation rate means Simmons has even more potential assists not getting converted by his teammates, and his assist totals are artificially deflated.

https://stats.nba.com/players/passing/?sort=POTENTIAL_AST&dir=1

Which way is it, or is it just higher quality three point potential assists? Impossible to say off just that data.

[crazy_me_87]

Ben has been amazing the last 3 Games. Does anybody have an idea what happened? Is he just more agressive or has Brown made him the first Option?

The last 3 his per 36 would be 27/8/8 with /3.3 Steals and 2.4 Blocks..

No question it's that he's been more aggressive. When he drives now, he's looking to score first and pass second. Previously, he'd basically only shoot if he couldn't find a pass.

The more i think about it.. the more i think it is Ben just feeling out the Game. He is testing what works and what does not work. I remember somebody here basically prediciting this i dont know who it was. The Predicition was something like "He will come out strong.. but then have a stretch where he tries to be a Pass First Point Guard.. but then finish the year agressive showing his all around Game"

As much as many advocate Embiid as the clear cut No1 Scoring Option the Team is actually so much better when Ben is agressive. When he is attacking not only does he score more but the Team also benefits because he remains the amazing Passer he naturally is... Him attacking gets his Teammates better shots because the Defense is trying to stop Ben.

Ben does not have to be a 30 PPG Scorer.. i doubt thats his nature.. but the Sixers are exponentially better when Ben is a 18-20 PPG guy then a 12-15 Point guy. The thing is... look at his stats.. he is not getting fewer Assists,Rebounds,Steals or Blocks because he scores more... so with Ben it is not that he sacrifices his allround Game to score.. He does his 8 Rebounds, 8 Assists 2 Steals and a Block anyway no matter if he scores 10 or 20 Points.

[Jams60]

Or they hit guys at the three point line more. Someone making 60% of potential assists requires some layups and not all wide open three point shots.

But 50% assist conversion (on 3's) is better than a 60% assist conversion on 2's, the data really is too incomplete to have meaning on its own.

It also likely includes the pass to the center at the top at the beginning of every possession. So basically, TJ or Ben will have an extra pass at the start of almost every half court possession that won't lead to an assist.

It is assist to potential assist. Not assist to pass. So, the only way that extra pass matters for this stat is if the center shoots it.

But it is definitely possible to take the same stat and decide that it means the opposite -- a low conversation rate means Simmons has even more potential assists not getting converted by his teammates, and his assist totals are artificially deflated.

https://stats.nba.com/players/passing/?sort=POTENTIAL_AST&dir=1

Which way is it, or is it just higher quality three point potential assists? Impossible to say off just that data.

Thanks for all those who took the time to respond. There were a number of readings of the data that I hadn’t considered. My thoughts were leaning towards Hartford Whalers low conversion rate reading.
But that wouldn’t factor in the idea that the low conversion rate can be symptomatic of when and where these passes were given. I always like to take data to extremes to try to understand it. So let’s assume that Simmons only ever dishes to three point shooters, then there is no way his the conversion rate will be much more than 40%. If he only ever dished to Embiid under the basket for dunks then his rate would be closer to 98 or 99%.
The only way we would know is to know where these passes went too and at what time on the shot clock and in the game. As was said, not enough information.

[PLO]

One of the reasons Nate Duncan has Donovan Mitchell as ROTY ahead of Simmon is because "Mitchell's defense is better". I'm not sure what he's watching, iunless he's thinking of college Mitchell and college Simmons. Mitchell's defensive output has actually fallen off as his offensive load has increased (understandably), while Simmons defense is borderline elite while also carrying a big offensive load. Pretty significant difference as defenders.

[cksdayoff]

One of the reasons Nate Duncan has Donovan Mitchell as ROTY ahead of Simmon is because "Mitchell's defense is better". I'm not sure what he's watching, iunless he's thinking of college Mitchell and college Simmons. Mitchell's defensive output has actually fallen off as his offensive load has increased (understandably), while Simmons defense is borderline elite while also carrying a big offensive load. Pretty significant difference as defenders.

yeah, it's a load of bulls***, simmons can guard 4 positions. the guy is an elite defender just for how many positions he can adequately guard

[Kobblehead]

Mitchell is actually a slightly negative defender as a rookie. Simmons, on the other hand, has been a savant.

[Leronziia]

Ben is already one of the best overall defenders in the league.

He has the potential to be a multiple DPOY.

[PhilasFinest]

One of the reasons Nate Duncan has Donovan Mitchell as ROTY ahead of Simmon is because "Mitchell's defense is better". I'm not sure what he's watching, iunless he's thinking of college Mitchell and college Simmons. Mitchell's defensive output has actually fallen off as his offensive load has increased (understandably), while Simmons defense is borderline elite while also carrying a big offensive load. Pretty significant difference as defenders.

Dudes an Idiot:

Donovan Mitchell:
1.5 STL
.5 BLK
107 DRTG
-0.4 DBPM
1.3 DWS

Ben Simmons:
1.9 STL (4th in the NBA)
.9 BLK
103 DRTG
3.3 DBPM
2.2 DWS

[Kobblehead]

A little known fact is that almost all defensive metrics show that Lonzo Ball is a better defender than Donovan Mitchell, as well. Donovan Mitchell wouldn't even be 1st team all rookie defense at G.

[crazy_me_87]

I think the issue is mostly reputation.. Ben's defense was "commonly known" as mediocre to even bad.. purely based on him beeing uninterested in College...nobody considered that through all that he still was LSU's best defender. While Donovan was mostly known as a good defender with little Scoring Potential.

Sadly reputation is a tough thing to overcome. I would argue that Kobe for example was never the defender his 12 x All Defensive Team selection would suggest, On the other Hand a guy like Dirk was never as bad on defense as his reputation (1 Block and 1 Steal for his career)

It will take until Ben makes a All NBA Defensive Team till most people will take notice.