The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III

[GrandTheftRondo]

There are tons of scoring guards like Mitchell but there aren’t many with a feel for a game like Ball. One is transcendent the other well...let’s just say we have seen many like him before. Not really understanding all the Mitchell love and I’ve seen him play.


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Donovan Mitchell has a great feel for the game. He has taken over games a few times this season to eke out wins for the Jazz. Ball has a good feel for the game as well, but you don't have to bring down Mitchell to prop up Ball.

At this stage, this feels like the best class of rookies for the past 15 years.

Oh the point of my post certainly wasn’t to bring down Mitchell. He has been pretty impressive for a rookie. I just don’t think a volume scoring guard is going to be more valuable than Ball (controls the pace, rebounds at an elite level, passes at an elite level, defends at an elite level and most importantly is able to change the culture of a team on its own). I mean there is a reason so many important figures in the nba gush over the kids potential, he truly is a transcendent talent. I was only refuting the ”not a gm that would take Ball over Donovan” piece from that guys quote.


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So much hyperbole when talking about Ball.

You’re making him sound like he’s Larry Bird.

I don’t see what is so transcendent about a guard who can rebound and run the offence. There’s plenty of guards who have done that.

[PLO]

What are you talking about? Simmons is neck and neck in the voting with DM for ROY. Simmons, Ingram and to some extent Jaylen Brown are doing well from the 2016 draft class.

Yes the fact people see him as neck and neck in the voting with DM, that’s a joke. His amazing play has become so standard for him now that people have seriously began underrating how incredible he is playing. Apart from DM outside shooting and points scored, what is he actually better than BS at?

The thing is he's way better at shooting and that matters in today's NBA.

Simmons hasn't even shot a 3 pointer yet.

Simmons is still putting up incredible numbers for a rookie, scoring and otherwise; he's about on par with Jason Kidd's best season ever. That's the Jason Kidd who will soon enter the HOF BTW, just in case some people on here don't know who that is, because it does seem a number of people on here are pretty clueless about the actual game of basketball on a basketball forum.

[crazy_me_87]

Yes the fact people see him as neck and neck in the voting with DM, that’s a joke. His amazing play has become so standard for him now that people have seriously began underrating how incredible he is playing. Apart from DM outside shooting and points scored, what is he actually better than BS at?

The thing is he's way better at shooting and that matters in today's NBA.

Simmons hasn't even shot a 3 pointer yet.

Simmons is still putting up incredible numbers for a rookie, scoring and otherwise; he's about on par with Jason Kidd's best season ever. That's the Jason Kidd who will soon enter the HOF BTW, just in case some people on here don't know who that is, because it does seem a number of people on here are pretty clueless about the actual game of basketball on a basketball forum.

I think the issue is, that many younger Fans especially those who started watching the NBA because of GSW.. or even those who started watching lets say 5 years ago.. have never seen Kidd play...especially not Prime Kidd.

I started watching the NBA in 1999 .. so one of my first memories are Kidd dragging comparably bad Nets Teams to the Finals and beeing the only reason those wherent blowout Sweeps.

Hell if Ben would be a 6'11 Kidd i would love that. The Two way Impact... and hell i am totally happy if he would develop a good 3pt Shot after 30 like Kidd did

[SmartWentCrazy]

The thing is he's way better at shooting and that matters in today's NBA.

Simmons hasn't even shot a 3 pointer yet.

Simmons is still putting up incredible numbers for a rookie, scoring and otherwise; he's about on par with Jason Kidd's best season ever. That's the Jason Kidd who will soon enter the HOF BTW, just in case some people on here don't know who that is, because it does seem a number of people on here are pretty clueless about the actual game of basketball on a basketball forum.

I think the issue is, that many younger Fans especially those who started watching the NBA because of GSW.. or even those who started watching lets say 5 years ago.. have never seen Kidd play...especially not Prime Kidd.

I started watching the NBA in 1999 .. so one of my first memories are Kidd dragging comparably bad Nets Teams to the Finals and beeing the only reason those wherent blowout Sweeps.

Hell if Ben would be a 6'11 Kidd i would love that. The Two way Impact... and hell i am totally happy if he would develop a good 3pt Shot after 30 like Kidd did

If you two are both claiming that Ben’s rookie season on par with Kidd’s best season, I don’t think it’s everyone else who hasn’t seen Kidd play...

[j-ragg]

There isn't a GM on the planet that would take ball over Donovan freakin Mitchell in a redraft. And saying he's got a higher upside than any one of Mitchell, Tatum, or Markkanen is just lakers fans being overly optimistic with their botched pick.

Having said that, ball is a pretty brilliant passer & his bbiq at his age is very impressive

There are tons of scoring guards like Mitchell but there aren’t many with a feel for a game like Ball. One is transcendent the other well...let’s just say we have seen many like him before. Not really understanding all the Mitchell love and I’ve seen him play.


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lol @ transcendent is that serious? 10.8 ppg per 36 minutes on 43 TS%. I'm all for not calling him a bust but transcendent is a huge reach.

[crazy_me_87]

If you two are both claiming that Ben’s rookie season on par with Kidd’s best season, I don’t think it’s everyone else who hasn’t seen Kidd play...

Yeah sure.. question if i have seen Kidd play just because we dont have the same Opinion. Thats the thing with Opinions... they can differ...

Lets take 02-03 where Kid averaged 18.7 PPG 6.3 RPG and 8.9 Apg on 41.4 & FG with a TS% of 46.5 and 2.2 Steals in 37.4 Minutes

So 17/8/7 with 2 steals vs 18/6/9 with 2 steals. I would say its pretty close. And i would like to note i did not agree with Bens Season so far beening as good as Prime Kidd. I just said i would be really happy if Ben became a 6'11 Kidd.. With his two way Impact and 3pt Shot after 30..

[SmartWentCrazy]

If you two are both claiming that Ben’s rookie season on par with Kidd’s best season, I don’t think it’s everyone else who hasn’t seen Kidd play...

Lets take 02-03 where Kid averaged 18.7 PPG 6.3 RPG and 8.9 Apg on 41.4 & FG with a TS% of 46.5 and 2.2 Steals in 37.4 Minutes

So 17/8/7 with 2 steals vs 18/6/9 with 2 steals. I would say its pretty close. And i would like to note i did not agree with Bens Season so far beening as good as Prime Kidd. I just said i would be really happy if Ben became a 6'11 Kidd.. With his two way Impact and 3pt Shot after 30..

You mean the season Kidd dragged his team to the finals with a BPM of 6.9 and an on/off per 100 possessions of +11.0? If the 76ers had that player, they’d be a hell of a lot better than 19-20.

Ridiculous. Utterly ridiculous. Kidd is a top 50 player ever. Arguing that Simmons is on that level already is one of the more absurd claims I’ve read on RealGM.

Edit: for reference, Simmons has a BPM of 2.8 and an on/off per 100 of +1.5. These are great marks for a rookie, but worlds away from what prime Kidd was doing.

[GrandTheftRondo]

There isn't a GM on the planet that would take ball over Donovan freakin Mitchell in a redraft. And saying he's got a higher upside than any one of Mitchell, Tatum, or Markkanen is just lakers fans being overly optimistic with their botched pick.

Having said that, ball is a pretty brilliant passer & his bbiq at his age is very impressive

There are tons of scoring guards like Mitchell but there aren’t many with a feel for a game like Ball. One is transcendent the other well...let’s just say we have seen many like him before. Not really understanding all the Mitchell love and I’ve seen him play.


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lol @ transcendent is that serious? 10.8 ppg per 36 minutes on 43 TS%. I'm all for not calling him a bust but transcendent is a huge reach.

I’m convinced people don’t know what the word means.

If anyone is the transcendent talent from this rookie class it’s Simmons at this stage. 6’10 point guard with incredible vision, great handles and a unique way of finishing at the basket.

[PaKii94]

Since coming back from the games he took off for back spasms (15 games), Lauri is averaging 20.8/8.2 p36 on 61.1% TS (43% on nearly 8 3pa) with 20+% usage and extremely low TOV% (7.2).

Last 10: 21/8.7 on 63.2% TS ( 49% on 8.5 3pa)
Last 5: 21.4/8 on 70% TS (55% on 8.4 3pa)



The arrow is pointing up goddamn! If this is his baseline he's gonna be scary good when he puts on a few pounds

[crazy_me_87]

If you two are both claiming that Ben’s rookie season on par with Kidd’s best season, I don’t think it’s everyone else who hasn’t seen Kidd play...

Lets take 02-03 where Kid averaged 18.7 PPG 6.3 RPG and 8.9 Apg on 41.4 & FG with a TS% of 46.5 and 2.2 Steals in 37.4 Minutes

So 17/8/7 with 2 steals vs 18/6/9 with 2 steals. I would say its pretty close. And i would like to note i did not agree with Bens Season so far beening as good as Prime Kidd. I just said i would be really happy if Ben became a 6'11 Kidd.. With his two way Impact and 3pt Shot after 30..

You mean the season Kidd dragged his team to the finals with a BPM of 6.9 and an on/off per 100 possessions of +11.0? If the 76ers had that player, they’d be a hell of a lot better than 19-20.

Ridiculous. Utterly ridiculous. Kidd is a top 50 player ever. Arguing that Simmons is on that level already is one of the more absurd claims I’ve read on RealGM.

Edit: for reference, Simmons has a BPM of 2.8 and an on/off per 100 of +1.5. These are great marks for a rookie, but worlds away from what prime Kidd was doing.

Again.. i never said his Impact now was comparable to prime Kidds impact i was comparing Raw Numbers and those are pretty close.

And you can call me ridiculous all day.. i am one of Bens biggest Homers.. never made a secrect of it.. I do believe he has Top 5 All Time Potential.. and before you freak out i said POTENTIAL. So i will gladly take him over Kidd assuming he doesnt suffer from a career ending Injury and does keep improving as almost every young Player does.. As amazing as Kidd was(To me 2nd best PG ever) i think Ben will end up the Greater Player.

[SmartWentCrazy]

Lets take 02-03 where Kid averaged 18.7 PPG 6.3 RPG and 8.9 Apg on 41.4 & FG with a TS% of 46.5 and 2.2 Steals in 37.4 Minutes

So 17/8/7 with 2 steals vs 18/6/9 with 2 steals. I would say its pretty close. And i would like to note i did not agree with Bens Season so far beening as good as Prime Kidd. I just said i would be really happy if Ben became a 6'11 Kidd.. With his two way Impact and 3pt Shot after 30..

You mean the season Kidd dragged his team to the finals with a BPM of 6.9 and an on/off per 100 possessions of +11.0? If the 76ers had that player, they’d be a hell of a lot better than 19-20.

Ridiculous. Utterly ridiculous. Kidd is a top 50 player ever. Arguing that Simmons is on that level already is one of the more absurd claims I’ve read on RealGM.

Edit: for reference, Simmons has a BPM of 2.8 and an on/off per 100 of +1.5. These are great marks for a rookie, but worlds away from what prime Kidd was doing.

Again.. i never said his Impact now was comparable to prime Kidds impact i was comparing Raw Numbers and those are pretty close.

And you can call me ridiculous all day.. i am one of Bens biggest Homers.. never made a secrect of it.. I do believe he has Top 5 All Time Potential.. and before you freak out i said POTENTIAL. So i will gladly take him over Kidd assuming he doesnt suffer from a career ending Injury and does keep improving as almost every young Player does.. As amazing as Kidd was(To me 2nd best PG ever) i think Ben will end up the Greater Player.

The ridiculous part wasn’t to you but rather to PLO who made the claim. Sorry for seeming elsewise.

And I really don’t find your second paragraph ridiculous, its not an absurd take to be really high on Simmons long term. Also, I’m not going to hate on someone for having a different development projection that myself — it’s all a guess and my guess is no more valid than yours.

My only contention was with the claim of where Simmons is now— he’s no where near producing at the level of prime Kidd.

[Alatan]

I dont understand all these people saying Ball is some great playmaker. He is painfully average in that regard. Better in transition worse in half court. Awful scorer, shooter, ball handler, finisher and has no mid range game. Decent team defender and a bad man defender. But hey, he can get you uncontested defensive rebounds so he must be the goat...

[3toheadmelo]

bam is gonna be a problem

[JellosJigglin]

For the people whose entire sphere of basketball knowledge revolves around scoring and its associated stats, which seems to be the majority of RealGM, they will just look at Ball and shrug. I said this would happen before he was drafted, just didn't realize to this extent. I thought on a basketball forum there would be more people who can see beyond scoring. Perhaps if he wasn't a Laker and played for, say, the Spurs or a small market team that people felt indifferent about.

Like I said when he was at UCLA, his greatest attribute is his ability to change the identity of the team while being a low usage player himself. There is no comparison to him. He's a new branch. Last year the Lakers had the worst ball movement in the league (there was a stat that tracked passes per game and they were near the bottom). Insert Lonzo and now they're near the top of the league. Funny how that has happened at every level Ball has played at. You can't teach that. In that sense, yes he's absolutely transcendent the way he immediately changes the identity to a more winning style of basketball. Culture matters in team sports.

I'm good with Lonzo flying under the radar. It seems he's starting to settle in and get comfortable. You can see the confidence growing and the shot is dropping. I'm not the least bit concerned with his scoring. He's doing what he was selected to do. The scoring will come around. Lonzo is an amplifier. Put better players around and he'll look better. He couldn't care less about scoring.

[levon]

Yes the fact people see him as neck and neck in the voting with DM, that’s a joke. His amazing play has become so standard for him now that people have seriously began underrating how incredible he is playing. Apart from DM outside shooting and points scored, what is he actually better than BS at?

It's probably a lot of recency bias, but I'll try to answer as someone who has Mitchell higher. The scoring is super critical in late game situations. They've been camping Simmons out by the baseline in late game situations because he can't do much without Embiid drawing attention in that scenario. Meanwhile, DM had a few games where his last few minute plays directly won the game (even though he couldn't hit anything that last game).

I think Simmons' unwillingness to get some game reps and take an outside shot is hurting is effectiveness down the stretch. Further, DM is the man in Utah while imo Embiid is the man in Philly.

I'm not sure how many 76ers games you've watched but lately(not including Boston game) Simmons has been carrying the Sixers in the clutch. He pretty much single handedly won the Detroit game in the clutch.

In clutch situations (less than 5min left and score within 5 points) Simmons is only 2nd to Markkanen in points scored, but Simmons has a much higher efficiency (%72.7). In fact Tatum (at %70.4) is the only other rookie who comes close to Simmons efficiency in clutch situations (of players with more than 5 fga's):

In clutch:
Simmons: +18, 51pts (%72.7), 21rbs, 14ast, 4stl
Mitchell: -18, 41pts (%47.1), 2rbs, 5ast, 2stl

http://stats.nba.com/players/clutch-traditional/?sort=NBA_FANTASY_PTS&dir=-1&Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PlayerExperience=Rookie&PerMode=Totals

Admittedly don't watch often and not recently. What's the play type though? I imagine on-ball drives and off-ball cuts. I don't think that's carrying frankly, I think that can be shut down when the defense tightens in the playoffs and that's my main gripe with Simmons. Obviously what he's done is phenomenal, I'm just skeptical as to how much of it will work when it matters and how much is regular season ROTY fodder.

Like, Tatum has shown how exactly he can be valuable to a playoff team at such a young age. Mitchell has shown he has the potential to be a 3 level scorer and draw doubles at the end of games. That matters to me more than Simmons punching in dunks at a high rate in the regular season "clutch", but to each their own.

tl;dr He's effective in a certain kind of game I'm skeptical of how effective he'll be with lineups not playing to his strengths, without a first option offensively by his side, and when the defense cares.

[levon]

I dont understand all these people saying Ball is some great playmaker. He is painfully average in that regard. Better in transition worse in half court. Awful scorer, shooter, ball handler, finisher and has no mid range game. Decent team defender and a bad man defender. But hey, he can get you uncontested defensive rebounds so he must be the goat...

He's basically first in PG DRPM when you consider the two players in front of him play tiny roles. So decent team defender and bad man defender makes you first in your position at 20 years old? You sound salty as hell man, get a hobby.

[Nate505]

For all those saying Mitchell is some dime a dozen player that's found in every draft...how come all these dime a dozen players don't do what he's doing?

[sogood]

Read on Twitter

[anthony00]

Read on Twitter

he looks injured

[ballup]

For the people whose entire sphere of basketball knowledge revolves around scoring and its associated stats, which seems to be the majority of RealGM, they will just look at Ball and shrug. I said this would happen before he was drafted, just didn't realize to this extent. I thought on a basketball forum there would be more people who can see beyond scoring. Perhaps if he wasn't a Laker and played for, say, the Spurs or a small market team that people felt indifferent about.

Like I said when he was at UCLA, his greatest attribute is his ability to change the identity of the team while being a low usage player himself. There is no comparison to him. He's a new branch. Last year the Lakers had the worst ball movement in the league (there was a stat that tracked passes per game and they were near the bottom). Insert Lonzo and now they're near the top of the league. Funny how that has happened at every level Ball has played at. You can't teach that. In that sense, yes he's absolutely transcendent the way he immediately changes the identity to a more winning style of basketball. Culture matters in team sports.

I'm good with Lonzo flying under the radar. It seems he's starting to settle in and get comfortable. You can see the confidence growing and the shot is dropping. I'm not the least bit concerned with his scoring. He's doing what he was selected to do. The scoring will come around. Lonzo is an amplifier. Put better players around and he'll look better. He couldn't care less about scoring.

According to NBA.com, the Lakers averaged 288 passes per game last season. They average 286 passes per game this season. They've been in the bottom half of the league for both seasons

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