Season Speculation, Trade Ideas & Discussion Pt. 4

[NavLDO]

I think if there was anytime to use a future pick of our own to move up in the draft I would do it this year. I don't see us in the lottery much longer.

Agreed. I mean, I think we'll still be in the lottery, since we won't make the playoffs, barring some fantastic trade deadline deal, but I do agree that we are more likely to be late lottery than early.

Of course, it depends on how the team is run, and what players we put forth each night; not to mention I believe our schedule gets more difficult from here on out. But even still, I think the highest we finish (without 'blatant' moves towards 'tanking') is 7th--the Hawks, Magic, Nets, Grizzlies, and Kings will be behind us, for sure. Add in one other team that will implode, and we head into the lottery 7th. The worst-case scenario (entering the draft lottery) is likely 12th, unless, of course, again, McD makes a trade deadline deal that get us a 'real' PG. If that happens, we MIGHT get close to the playoffs, but not likely higher than 16th.

We have the Mil 1st, that will not be realized this year, but might be in '19, but most likely in '20; we have the '21 unprotected 1st of the Heat as well.

So, with our pick, plus those two, we might be able to move up a few spots; maybe like 10th to 7th or 6th. We are not getting in the top 5 in order to get Young or Doncic; those guys are 'potentially' generational talents, according to all the buzz going around how Young is doing things never done before by a PG prospect, and Doncic being potentially the best Euro player ever; one that could be plugged in to play anywhere from 1 to 3.

We're likely going to have to go with the 2nd tier PGs like the kid from UK, who's really moved up in recent weeks, or Sexton. But in that scenario, there's no need to move up, and we are best to take the best PG and best C available at ours and the Heat's pick and hope they both turn out; they might very well do so in that this draft is pretty deep, and is starting to look more and more deep at the PG (Trevon Duval/Tra Holder) and 'Combo Guard' spots with those like the two aforementioned, plus Troy Brown, Lonnie Walker, and especially, Landry Shamet. Shamet is shooting 52% from 3, is on a ranked D1 team (Wichita St), has good size (6'4"), and is averaging 5 APG. He's a bit thin, and I guess has had some foot injuries, but outside of that, the dude is money, and not sure why he's not ranked higher.

But point is there are some good PGs to be had deeper in the draft; some were on no ones radar this season (Tra Holder), but now that the team is good, and they are showing to be a big part of that, they are moving up big.

[NavLDO]

The Clippers would trade Griffin for Booker. Not less.
No way they trade him for a package of low pieces. That is why they wanted Towns.

I do not see news in all of that. These offers are probably being made everyday....something like Cleveland offering Kevin Love for Anteto. "Do you want to trade with us Milwaukee?"

Which is why, I think, the 'minimalist' trade idea I had above would likely not even be close, for them, even if it's actually pretty darn fair. A 3rd team would likely have to get involved, like Brooklyn. We could snag Jordan and Dinwiddie, and give up Monroe, JJ, Bender, and a pick.

https://basketball.realgm.com/tradechecker/saved_trade/6992677

Dinwiddie / Booker / Warren / Chriss / Jordan

Clippers 'pay' both Jordan and Griffin, but get a 25-YO SG (which they need) in Crabbe, they get Monroe to fill the void of Jordan, and Bender to fill the void of Blake, and our '18 1st, which, since we just got out PG and Center in one trade, we're ok with. We just try to get the Best Center possible with the Mia '18 1st to learn the ropes under Jordan.

Brooklyn sheds some salary, but get get a young SF in JJ, and they also get Blake. They are the TRUE winners of the trade. The Clippers appear to lose, but with a pick...maybe we through in the MIL 1st as well, it's not so bad. We 'also' win by filling to positions of need with a young, promising PG, and an All-Star Center.

That return for the Clips is probably one of the worst in a proposed deal I've seen in my history reading and posting at realgm. Impressive.

Your welcome!

Look, IF they are attempting to trade Blake at $34M per for 5 years, then they are feeling like they just made a big eff'n OOPS. And Jordan has a few months left on a Player option. Exactly how much do you think they SHOULD get back for a player that they are so eager to rid themselves of, already, not but 6 months after signing him?

- A guy who WAS a perennial ALL-Star, but hasn't made it in the last 2 years, and is on his way to miss his 3rd straight, yet is being paid nearly as much as LeBron? A guy scheduled to make $39M when he's 32-YO?

- A PF with a DRtg of 110??

- A player with his worst numbers, ever, in his career, in WS/48, TOV%, PER, BLK%, ORB%, VORP, DRtg (110--oof!)

- ...and 2nd Worst in DRB%, STL%, TS%, ORtg

So, when you get over the hype of the name, and decide to look at reality, the Clippers brass are realizing that they best be getting out while the gettin's good. Add in, again, a player on a Player Option next season, how much is he really worth?

Other than misspelling 'throw' with 'through', when I said we'd 'throw' in the MIL 1st, as well, well, that's not so bad, IMO.

On paper, it looks horrible, but when they have two picks in one of the deeper drafts in recent history, or so they say, plus another pick in a year or two, plus an up-and-coming 20-YO PF/SF shooting 38.5% from 3, and going up every day, who can defend anywhere from 2-4. Plus, they get a soon-to-be 26-YO SG (Overpaid?? yeah, but nothing like Blake appears to be...less than 2/3 the cost), they at least have a young group to build from and some picks and cap space, to do it with. Rather than slowly see Blake decline as his salary goes up.

If they were not looking to trade him, and we went to THEIR door and asked them for this deal, it would be one thing, but if THEY are the ones actively shopping, well, that says something in and of itself, and if you don't believe that, then fine, I guess you believe we got fair value for Bledsoe, too, right? Sorry, but they are doing the shopping; that changes the whole dynamic, and they are still getting some decent pieces for a guy about to walk out their door anyway for another guy about to do the same to us. The rest is all compensation for Blake.

[jredsaz]

You are never winning a championship if Blake Griffin is your number 1 option.

Agreed. But what if he is your second or third?

[oddity]

\http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=ybrv8pyw + Mia '18 1st

In this trade, we save them $6M by taking on 2 x 1yr contracts worth $20, while trading them a more useful Monroe. They also get a versatile Bender to use with Covington and Saric at SF/PF, as they please, plus, they get a 1st, which they always love.

We get Fultz (They don't need him with Simmons and TJ McConnell), 2 PFs to take up space in Amir J. and T. Booker, but also, a plus PF/C in Richaun Holmes.

This helps us immediately AND in the future...

Part II addressing other aspects of your post, in my next post...

And I thought I was a blind optimist at times...

You all should know, by now, especially when I throw up (yeah, that's about right...vomit) 10 trade scenarios, I'm not really looking at the best trade value on either side; I'm just trying to get close. Add/Subtract whatever is needed, but also understand that Philly has a history (with other GMs, mind you) of trading solid pieces for peanuts...Evan Turner so they could reach the salary floor, dump the guy a few days later after they met the requirement, and a 2nd Rd pick. Why? Because he was not going to be the star they were hoping for, but he was still a pretty decent player in the right system.

Then, again, look at the 3 young promising players PLUS a first they traded for Bynum. The dude never suited up, and he was being upgraded by the Lakers by Howard, or so they thought. I know, hindsight, yada yada, but, they traded 3 players and a 1st for 'ridden hard and put away wet' 24 YO who had only played in 68% of available games at that point:



Anyway, add the '21 Mia pick, or ooh, our '18 2nd...they love 2nd Rd picks! Who cares. My point is, Bender would be more useful to them than Fultz will be; take pick status, hype, etc., ALL away, and look at their roster, and who is going to be more helpful to their cause both this year and in the future? A 3rd PG (They already have Simmons, of course, and a pretty darn good bench PG, and actually, he's ideal for them, in McConnell)? Or a guy who can defend anywhere from 2-4...maybe 5, depending, and is shooting the 3 at a clip of 39% from the PF position, but could just as easily play the SF position, depending upon their needs. That's what I was looking at.

If we offered what I offered, and McD explained it the way I just did (though I doubt GMs tell other GMs how to use players on THEI team), but regardless, if McD 'upsold' Bender's versatility and pointed out McConnell's ability as a bench PG, and them already having Simmons, I bet he could put a pkg together that would work for both sides. Remember, Fultz is helping them ZILCH this year, and they have designs on getting to the postseason; Bender would be a 'plus' addition to their roster and help them achieve their goal this year and in years future...

Your Bender vs Fultz argument is riddled w holes. Ben Simmons is a great weapon but mostly inside the paint; the Sixers clearly need more outside scoring. Fultz can provide this, if healthy, and be a far greater perimeter threat than Bender can. Bender's offensive arsenal is so unbelievably minuscule, with no pullups or stepbacks, and a very inconsistent turnaround. Equally large a problem is Bender's ball handling being too poor to break anyone down on the perimeter. Sure he may become a better catch and shoot threat than Fultz, but he will never have the offensive versatility off the bounce that Fultz displays.
Do the Sixers REALLY care enough to make the playoffs this year?? I highly doubt they were confident in making the playoffs before their great start to the season, let alone actually doing anything once they get to the postseason. They were focused on the future, and now you're postulating they would forget all about that in HALF A SEASON, give up on their prized rookie in his first year, and settle for a worse option in Bender when they already have a loaded front line. And who knows if JJ Reddick is going to stay or not. I just cannot believe any Sixers management thinking of Bender as better than Fultz, either individually or as a team fit, unless those injury concerns bare some serious fruit.

There is a line between thinking realistically and wishfully, and I try to avoid the later as best as I can. If I say things as preposterous as Bender being more valuable than Fultz enough, I may start believing it, and lose my grip on reality. We are terrible for a reason. Our record is as it is for a reason. Bender is written off by nearly everyone outside of the phoenix area for a reason. PERHAPS Bender can be a very good player one day, but he is still far too raw and uncomfortable on the floor to inspire confidence that he WILL BE. We cannot keep artificially inflating our mediocre players' values in our heads via hope; it only makes the brutal reality that much harder to witness.

[TOO]

You are never winning a championship if Blake Griffin is your number 1 option.

Agreed. But what if he is your second or third?

Much better chance. Mostly because Griffin is pretty good and if your top option is better than he is, then you're pretty good.

[bwgood77]

Your Bender vs Fultz argument is riddled w holes. Ben Simmons is a great weapon but mostly inside the paint; the Sixers clearly need more outside scoring. Fultz can provide this, if healthy, and be a far greater perimeter threat than Bender can. Bender's offensive arsenal is so unbelievably minuscule, with no pullups or stepbacks, and a very inconsistent turnaround. Equally large a problem is Bender's ball handling being too poor to break anyone down on the perimeter. Sure he may become a better catch and shoot threat than Fultz, but he will never have the offensive versatility off the bounce that Fultz displays.
Do the Sixers REALLY care enough to make the playoffs this year?? I highly doubt they were confident in making the playoffs before their great start to the season, let alone actually doing anything once they get to the postseason. They were focused on the future, and now you're postulating they would forget all about that in HALF A SEASON, give up on their prized rookie in his first year, and settle for a worse option in Bender when they already have a loaded front line. And who knows if JJ Reddick is going to stay or not. I just cannot believe any Sixers management thinking of Bender as better than Fultz, either individually or as a team fit, unless those injury concerns bare some serious fruit.

There is a line between thinking realistically and wishfully, and I try to avoid the later as best as I can. If I say things as preposterous as Bender being more valuable than Fultz enough, I may start believing it, and lose my grip on reality. We are terrible for a reason. Our record is as it is for a reason. Bender is written off by nearly everyone outside of the phoenix area for a reason. PERHAPS Bender can be a very good player one day, but he is still far too raw and uncomfortable on the floor to inspire confidence that he WILL BE. We cannot keep artificially inflating our mediocre players' values in our heads via hope; it only makes the brutal reality that much harder to witness.

Well, most importantly is that they traded the 3rd pick where they could have taken Tatum and another potential top 5 pick this year or next to move up to get Fultz BECAUSE they knew they needed that shooter next to Simmons at PG. And he hasn't played much. If he pans out for them he is EXACTLY what they need. Redick is only there for a year (at least only currently signed for a year) so the Simmons/Fultz back court could be killer. The thing is, he was EXACTLY the type of player they needed given that they had so many forwards and bigs and non shooters and had a point forward type, that they could take a great shooter and secondary ball handler in Fultz.

Now if they did for some reason decide to trade him that would only be because they realized he's damaged goods and his shoulder is beyond repair, which, at that point, his trade value is too tough to gauge.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

Tl; dr: It makes more sense to upgrade the PG position this summer, rather than at the deadline.

Looking at best options for upgrading the PG at the deadline:

What about Dinwiddie? If you were the Nets, wouldn't you be looking to sell high? But if you are the Suns, wouldn't you be looking to avoid buying high, given what happened with BK? So how about BK, MIA '18 and two seconds for Mozgov and Dinwiddie? I think the fundamental exchange here - essentially, picks for Dinwiddie - is interesting, because we're well ahead of BKN with our rebuild.

In this scenario, we'd essentially be paying Mozgov to have Dinwiddie. If I'm BKN, I'd seriously consider it If I received also the MIL 1st -- that is, two firsts and two seconds, and the upside possibility that BK turns into at least a marginally useful player (which I don't take to exist in the case of Mozgov) is to me worth Dinwiddie. But if I'm Phoenix, the price is just a bit too high! Am I wrong on this? Is there a middle ground to be found or a third element that might make things work?

Even where, where a sensible trade might in theory be proposed, it makes more sense to stay conservative and look again at this kind of thing this summer, when you have a better idea of whom you'll draft and what those players may be able to do, and you're able also to look at possible free agents (if we liked Tyreke, say, we may be able to get him at a reasonable price, without having to deal any picks). Plus by then Spencer would have a full season sample size, and BKN may or will have acquired favorites in this current draft class.

Just throwing things out there.

The funny thing is... you know who we really could have used last night against the Rockets? Brandon Knight! He plays much better at a hectic speed, where players have more space, because he adds length on the perimeter and extends the defense with the long ball and his speed.

So maybe the right thing to do in almost any case is (1) hold onto BK, (2) add a free agent PG like Reke (or trading for George Hill using cap space?), (3) draft another PG, and (4) hold onto Canaan - altogether, it would take a whole lot of worst outcomes for our PG position to be anywhere near as bad as it is now (BK and Reke/Hill sucking and/or being injured, new pick not being able to contribute, Canaan and Reed not being able to fill in admirably).

[sunsbum]

Watch on YouTube

Bazz is ready to bust out. I'm telling ya. Blazers can't afford to keep him.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

Watch on YouTube

Bazz is ready to bust out. I'm telling ya. Blazers can't afford to keep him.

Add him to the list of reasonable possibilities this summer.

[oddity]

Now if they did for some reason decide to trade him that would only be because they realized he's damaged goods and his shoulder is beyond repair, which, at that point, his trade value is too tough to gauge.

Hit the nail on the head.

[bwgood77]

Watch on YouTube

Bazz is ready to bust out. I'm telling ya. Blazers can't afford to keep him.

Add him to the list of reasonable possibilities this summer.

I've never really given his mentions much thought, and haven't really watched him, but maybe he just really likes to start lighting it up in his 4th year. After all, in one of the craziest NCAA tournament runs ever, where they were a 7 seed in their region, he puts that UConn team on his back to knock out Villanova, Michigan St, Florida and then Kentucky to win the NCAA Championship. He just looked built for the big moment that year.

Then you look at his efg% increase in each of the last two years, he clearly is a guy that seems to get better every year. https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/n/napiesh01.html

I still don't really see him as a long term starting solution, but given what we have now, he'd likely be an improvement, not that that's saying much.

[lilfishi22]

Your Bender vs Fultz argument is riddled w holes. Ben Simmons is a great weapon but mostly inside the paint; the Sixers clearly need more outside scoring. Fultz can provide this, if healthy, and be a far greater perimeter threat than Bender can. Bender's offensive arsenal is so unbelievably minuscule, with no pullups or stepbacks, and a very inconsistent turnaround. Equally large a problem is Bender's ball handling being too poor to break anyone down on the perimeter. Sure he may become a better catch and shoot threat than Fultz, but he will never have the offensive versatility off the bounce that Fultz displays.
Do the Sixers REALLY care enough to make the playoffs this year?? I highly doubt they were confident in making the playoffs before their great start to the season, let alone actually doing anything once they get to the postseason. They were focused on the future, and now you're postulating they would forget all about that in HALF A SEASON, give up on their prized rookie in his first year, and settle for a worse option in Bender when they already have a loaded front line. And who knows if JJ Reddick is going to stay or not. I just cannot believe any Sixers management thinking of Bender as better than Fultz, either individually or as a team fit, unless those injury concerns bare some serious fruit.

There is a line between thinking realistically and wishfully, and I try to avoid the later as best as I can. If I say things as preposterous as Bender being more valuable than Fultz enough, I may start believing it, and lose my grip on reality. We are terrible for a reason. Our record is as it is for a reason. Bender is written off by nearly everyone outside of the phoenix area for a reason. PERHAPS Bender can be a very good player one day, but he is still far too raw and uncomfortable on the floor to inspire confidence that he WILL BE. We cannot keep artificially inflating our mediocre players' values in our heads via hope; it only makes the brutal reality that much harder to witness.

Well, most importantly is that they traded the 3rd pick where they could have taken Tatum and another potential top 5 pick this year or next to move up to get Fultz BECAUSE they knew they needed that shooter next to Simmons at PG. And he hasn't played much. If he pans out for them he is EXACTLY what they need. Redick is only there for a year (at least only currently signed for a year) so the Simmons/Fultz back court could be killer. The thing is, he was EXACTLY the type of player they needed given that they had so many forwards and bigs and non shooters and had a point forward type, that they could take a great shooter and secondary ball handler in Fultz.

Now if they did for some reason decide to trade him that would only be because they realized he's damaged goods and his shoulder is beyond repair, which, at that point, his trade value is too tough to gauge.

IMO that's the best time for the Suns to get in. Sixers training staff isn't exactly known as having a great reputation and them giving up on Fultz doesn't necessarily mean he's a write-off. Phoenix happens to have the best medical staff in sports and if they sign off on Fultz, even if proper rehab takes time, I'd be all over a Fultz trade.

[bwgood77]

Tl; dr: It makes more sense to upgrade the PG position this summer, rather than at the deadline.

Looking at best options for upgrading the PG at the deadline:

What about Dinwiddie? If you were the Nets, wouldn't you be looking to sell high? But if you are the Suns, wouldn't you be looking to avoid buying high, given what happened with BK? So how about BK, MIA '18 and two seconds for Mozgov and Dinwiddie? I think the fundamental exchange here - essentially, picks for Dinwiddie - is interesting, because we're well ahead of BKN with our rebuild.

In this scenario, we'd essentially be paying Mozgov to have Dinwiddie. If I'm BKN, I'd seriously consider it If I received also the MIL 1st -- that is, two firsts and two seconds, and the upside possibility that BK turns into at least a marginally useful player (which I don't take to exist in the case of Mozgov) is to me worth Dinwiddie. But if I'm Phoenix, the price is just a bit too high! Am I wrong on this? Is there a middle ground to be found or a third element that might make things work?

Even where, where a sensible trade might in theory be proposed, it makes more sense to stay conservative and look again at this kind of thing this summer, when you have a better idea of whom you'll draft and what those players may be able to do, and you're able also to look at possible free agents (if we liked Tyreke, say, we may be able to get him at a reasonable price, without having to deal any picks). Plus by then Spencer would have a full season sample size, and BKN may or will have acquired favorites in this current draft class.

Just throwing things out there.

The funny thing is... you know who we really could have used last night against the Rockets? Brandon Knight! He plays much better at a hectic speed, where players have more space, because he adds length on the perimeter and extends the defense with the long ball and his speed.

So maybe the right thing to do in almost any case is (1) hold onto BK, (2) add a free agent PG like Reke (or trading for George Hill using cap space?), (3) draft another PG, and (4) hold onto Canaan - altogether, it would take a whole lot of worst outcomes for our PG position to be anywhere near as bad as it is now (BK and Reke/Hill sucking and/or being injured, new pick not being able to contribute, Canaan and Reed not being able to fill in admirably).

I don't think Dinwiddie is going anywhere. He's the best bargain in the league and a current fan favorite. https://www.netsdaily.com/2018/1/13/16888310/how-big-of-a-bargain-is-spencer-dinwiddie-very-big

“Spencer is playing so well that we need him on the court. Obviously what’s good about D’Angelo is that he proved with Jeremy [Lin] that he has absolutely no problem playing on the ball and off the ball. I actually think he enjoys playing off the ball also. He likes both.”

Russell not only likes it, but has thrived at it.

“The great thing about Spencer is that he’s 6-6,” Atkinson said. “Sometimes when you have two small point guards, [you wonder]: Who do you put on the two-guard? Spencer can play any 6-6 guy in the league. There’s no two-guard where you’re [afraid to use him]. … He was on [DeMar] DeRozan for a while. It’s not a concern.

https://nypost.com/2018/01/09/what-dangelo-russells-return-means-for-dinwiddie-nets/

I'm surprised so many people are wanting to see/talking about Knight coming back and maybe starting next year. And I thought I held out optimism on him for a long time. That's the last thing I want to see.

[bwgood77]

Now if they did for some reason decide to trade him that would only be because they realized he's damaged goods and his shoulder is beyond repair, which, at that point, his trade value is too tough to gauge[/b].

IMO that's the best time for the Suns to get in. Sixers training staff isn't exactly known as having a great reputation and them giving up on Fultz doesn't necessarily mean he's a write-off. Phoenix happens to have the best medical staff in sports and if they sign off on Fultz, even if proper rehab takes time, I'd be all over a Fultz trade.

It's a lot of hypotheticals and extremely far fetched, but IF they got to this conclusion and decided to trade him for something we deemed reasonable and in a physical our training staff thought his shoulder was not a lost cause, sure. Though I don't see us having anything they'd want. I think they would want shooting, preferably a guard that is a good shooter (and obviously not Knight) and would not really have the need for picks or frontcourt players or particularly players who were not good shooters.

[Saberestar]

I don't want to watch Knight playing for the Suns again. Never.

He can be on the roster like Luol Deng on the Lakers... but on the court? No.Please.No.

[hollywood6964]

I don't want to watch Knight playing for the Suns again. Never.

He can be on the roster like Luol Deng on the Lakers... but on the court? No.Please.No.

He's still a young player. If we can't deal him, he'll get a chance to play. At least off the pine, as he's not a point guard, combo guard if not a straight up 2.

[NTB]

Read on Twitter

[TOO]

Read on Twitter

Heavy burden that 2nd fiddle...

[NapoleonII]

Fultz has a lot to prove. His stock has gone down.

[lilfishi22]

Now if they did for some reason decide to trade him that would only be because they realized he's damaged goods and his shoulder is beyond repair, which, at that point, his trade value is too tough to gauge[/b].

IMO that's the best time for the Suns to get in. Sixers training staff isn't exactly known as having a great reputation and them giving up on Fultz doesn't necessarily mean he's a write-off. Phoenix happens to have the best medical staff in sports and if they sign off on Fultz, even if proper rehab takes time, I'd be all over a Fultz trade.

It's a lot of hypotheticals and extremely far fetched, but IF they got to this conclusion and decided to trade him for something we deemed reasonable and in a physical our training staff thought his shoulder was not a lost cause, sure. Though I don't see us having anything they'd want. I think they would want shooting, preferably a guard that is a good shooter (and obviously not Knight) and would not really have the need for picks or frontcourt players or particularly players who were not good shooters.

I agree. Just saying I'd take a chance if for some crazy reason they don't have interest in trying to rehab his shoulder