Political Roundtable Part XVII

[stilldropin20]

DOW over 26 effing thousand!!!!!!!!!!!! yo DCKIngs!! you still think trumps tax plan is NOT working??? Is not the cause of this???

Estimate are that apple's repatriation of $350 billion alone will proved nearly $40billion in tax revenue. To say nothing of the new jobs!! higher wages!!! just the helicopter drop of cash!!!!!!!


wake the fuq up folks. please wake the fuq up!! remember when chuck schumer cried. CRIED!!!!! and told us we were "ruining the country!!!!" that we would "RUE THE DAY" remember that???? it was only 2 weeks ago!!!!! Dow was at 23000 a few days before that. 26000 today. lol

the stock market has been running up since trump was elected because lower taxes creates better profit margins which create better P/E ratios. which makes stock prices rise. Companies are re-investing in the american people and the american economy and the american markets!!

Its working!!! Dont let the lies persuade you!!!!!

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[Wizardspride]

Well, I guess I'll have some time off.

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[dckingsfan]

DOW over 26 effing thousand!!!!!!!!!!!! yo DCKIngs!! you still think trumps tax plan is NOT working???

If irrational exuberance was the plan - he is killing it.

[dckingsfan]

...

Smell that 2018 wave

It is going to be quite epic...

[stilldropin20]

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[Wizardspride]

...

Smell that 2018 wave

It is going to be quite epic...

Read on Twitter

[stilldropin20]

...

Smell that 2018 wave

It is going to be quite epic...

i'd like to know what dems are going to do? What big legislation plans do they have on deck? anything?

just resist trump?

stop trump from hitting grand slams? Thats the big plan?

[dckingsfan]

Smell that 2018 wave

It is going to be quite epic...

i'd like to know what dems are going to do? What big legislation plans do they have on deck? anything?

just resist trump?

stop trump from hitting grand slams? Thats the big plan?

Actually, they don't need to do anything at this point. They just have to ride the wave.

My concern is what would they do if they get back into power - they don't seem to have a plan other than we won't be as bad as Trump.

[Wizardspride]

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From a poll:
Nearly 6 in 10 Americans think that Trump’s comments were racist. That includes majorities of independents and nearly all Democrats. It includes just over half of whites, 7 in 10 Hispanics and nearly 9 in 10 black Americans. White men, Republicans and white people without college degrees were more likely to say that the comments weren’t racist.

[dckingsfan]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/15/opinion/trump-american-values.html

The problem with Krugman's articles is he leads you down a hole but then jumps to less than stellar logic. He is going through a logical path until he comes to higher ed. He then makes an implied jump that conservatives aren't qualified to teach higher ed (even in the sciences) based upon their beliefs. And he points out that Rs know feel that higher ed is hurting the country (but he doesn't point out that part of that is due to debt load, part due to the identity politics at higher ed and part due to the rising endowments). He just makes the jump with no justification. And he doesn't point out that there have been studies that show that conservatives are discriminated at the higher ed level.

He makes points why public education helped us in the past but not why public education hasn't improved.

He talks about immigration before social services but not how they impact immigration today.

Basically, he doesn't want to take on any of the inconvenient truths - and why Trump came to power in the first place.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

It is going to be quite epic...

i'd like to know what dems are going to do? What big legislation plans do they have on deck? anything?

just resist trump?

stop trump from hitting grand slams? Thats the big plan?

Actually, they don't need to do anything at this point. They just have to ride the wave.

My concern is what would they do if they get back into power - they don't seem to have a plan other than we won't be as bad as Trump.

I’d gladly settle for that.

[closg00]

DOW over 26 effing thousand!!!!!!!!!!!! yo DCKIngs!! you still think trumps tax plan is NOT working???

If irrational exuberance was the plan - he is killing it.

What SD20 fails to realize is that outside of the investor class, what Repubs are doing is NOT HELPING the average American, they know the Medicare/SSI cuts are around the corner, and the health care racket goes on. Look at the all of the special elections, Ryan's recent warning to Republicans. Trump sycophants just can't see it.

[Pointgod]

DOW over 26 effing thousand!!!!!!!!!!!! yo DCKIngs!! you still think trumps tax plan is NOT working???

If irrational exuberance was the plan - he is killing it.

What SD20 fails to realize is that outside of the investor class, what Repubs are doing is NOT HELPING the average American, they know the Medicare/SSI cuts are around the corner, and the health care racket goes on. Look at the all of the special elections, Ryan's recent warning to Republicans. Trump sycophants just can't see it.

This tax bill was brought to you by Paul Ryan and Mitch Mcconell. It takes a huge amount of mental gymnastics to be anti establishment then full throated support this tax bill and attribute it to Trump. SD20 only posts stock market news, unemployment numbers and corporate news (notice he never posts the layoffs or share buybacks). This is because Trump has done nothing and has contradicted himself on a ton of campaign promises. The majority of people care about more than just enriching themselves.

[verbal8]

So in other words, they can't really trust what he says.

Trump is such a great negotiator that he's managed to bankrupt multiple businesses and run his business so poorly that no one would loan him money except for shady Russian banks. I actually work in business and there's such a thing as negotiating in bad faith. Trump is used to just bullying and suing contractors who don't have as much money for lawyer fees as he has. He's not a good negotiator as evidence by Chuck and Nancy finessing him into funding the government a couple months ago.

Good points.

I quit reading sd20s post when he said Trump was transparent.

[verbal8]

Fix stuff Trump broke seems like it could end up being an approach for a Dem agenda.

i'd like to know what dems are going to do? What big legislation plans do they have on deck? anything?

just resist trump?

stop trump from hitting grand slams? Thats the big plan?

Actually, they don't need to do anything at this point. They just have to ride the wave.

My concern is what would they do if they get back into power - they don't seem to have a plan other than we won't be as bad as Trump.

I’d gladly settle for that.

[stilldropin20]

So in other words, they can't really trust what he says.

Trump is such a great negotiator that he's managed to bankrupt multiple businesses and run his business so poorly that no one would loan him money except for shady Russian banks. I actually work in business and there's such a thing as negotiating in bad faith. Trump is used to just bullying and suing contractors who don't have as much money for lawyer fees as he has. He's not a good negotiator as evidence by Chuck and Nancy finessing him into funding the government a couple months ago.

Good points.

I quit reading sd20s post when he said Trump was transparent.

whoa whoa whoooooaaaa!!

wait just a second here. How has trump been anything other than transparent??? Everything he want or is pushing for he campaigned on. everything. And he is willing to give some back in the negotiation. like daca and 6 years of chip.

all he wants in return is 9 democratic votes on the wall in the senate. 9 votes!! that's it. surely there are 5 democratic states that can spare some votes for the wall? he isn't asking durbin or schumer or any cali D's to vote for the wall. but certainly a few D's from blue states can vote to fund the wall???

and get CHIP and DACA in return. This is a win/win.

they should just do complete comprehensive immigration reform right now. get it over with. pull off the damn band aid!!!! the country then can move forward on this. be done with it. keep the boarders secure. this is so simple.

[TGW]

LOL at the stock market being an economic indicator of anything other than the top 1% getting richer. It cracks me up that anyone making less than $5MM a year can brag about the stock market, like that has any reflection on how regular Americans are doing.

And this current economic climate reminds me of the movie "The Big Short." A great movie if you want to see how the mortgage industry crashed the economy, and how one smart dude made a ton of money off the morons who were bragging that the real estate market was crash-proof. Someone should show that movie to the president, but unfortunately I think even the movie's dumbed-down explanations of mortgage-backed securities and CDOs would go over his pea-brained head.

Anyway, I'm going to invest in credit default swaps much like Christian Bale's character, and bet against this boom-bust mortgage industry. It's coming...all the symptoms are there. 30% of the market still consists of upside-down loans from before 2009, sub-prime loans have made a big comeback, and the idiot in the WH is deregulating the market. And just like during Bush's second term, you have idiots bragging about the strength of the economy. It's going to be a bloodbath again...it's just a matter of what side you're on this time.

[stilldropin20]

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[nate33]

Average IQ of central American countries is *not* acceptable - my premise is we are skimming off the top. Also it is well established that IQ tests were explicitly designed to give higher scores to white kids, at least when it was first invented in the early 20th Century. I doubt they've improved it much since then.

It is well established by who? Why would whites devise a test where they score lower than East Asians and Ashkenazi Jews?

Yeah SAT scores are tricky - once you've been here a few generations you are "incumbent" and thus not eligible for comparison. But the newly arrived immigrants aren't native English speakers, so of course their SAT scores will be lower. Also SAT scores are subject to the same cultural bias that IQ tests are. Nevertheless I think you could compare the SAT scores of DACA recipients to the native Hispanic population - if they are higher, then you know we've skimmed off the cream of the crop. Not that I'm saying DACA recipients have to take an SAT test to be eligible for benefits, ugh. I'm just trying to put doubt in your mind though. It's not enough to say "ugh these people are brown let's not let them in." Are these the most entrepreneurially talented members of their respective population? Will they create jobs?

I'm open to the possibility that DACA recipients are somehow the cream of the crop. I'd just like to see some proof. Also, aren't most of the Hispanics currently here also the cream of the crop? Why would we expect DACA immigrants to outperform current cream-of-the-crop Hispanic immigrants and children and grandchildren of cream-of-the-crop Hispanic immigrants?

IQ tests were constructed by getting a group of kids considered successful and a group of kids not considered successful. Ask them a bunch of questions, throw out the questions that both groups can answer about the same, keep the questions that do a good job separating them out.

That's how they designed it. The original choice of "successful" vs. "not successful" entirely drives the test. At the time of the test's devising it was common knowledge that white people were the superior race, so it's basically a "are you a white person" test. Jews do well on IQ tests because we are awesome. And our entire culture has defined success through intensive study for the last four thousand years. It's why we're still around.

I'd like to see proof too, and I'm very curious about the transmission of *talent* from one generation to the next. All I know is that *wealth* gets passed down from one generation to the next. The tests you propose, IQ tests and college graduation rates, are pretty lousy metrics to use for fresh-off-the-boat immigrants. IMHO the ideal test would be lifetime jobs created by the businesses they create.

You are basically wrong in nearly every point you made here. I'm not going to take the time to explain it to you. Go do some more research. IQ is a real thing. It was developed and fine tuned by serious cognitive experts in an attempt to measure cognitive abilities that are not dependent on knowledge. And it does have a high correlation with success because it measures something important. And it's highly hereditary. Using twin studies and adoption studies, experts in the field have measured the heritebility
of IQ to be between 50% and 80%. More specifically, it's at the lower range of the estimate when looking at children, but adults are at the higher end of the range. (That is, children's IQ are affected by things other than genetics, but that effect diminishes with age. Environmental effects prove less and less influential as they get older. A child with two 130 IQ parents may be measured with an IQ of 110 or 150 when he is 8 years old, but as he gets older, that IQ is likely to drift much closer to 130, regardless of education).

[Zonkerbl]

It is well established by who? Why would whites devise a test where they score lower than East Asians and Ashkenazi Jews?


I'm open to the possibility that DACA recipients are somehow the cream of the crop. I'd just like to see some proof. Also, aren't most of the Hispanics currently here also the cream of the crop? Why would we expect DACA immigrants to outperform current cream-of-the-crop Hispanic immigrants and children and grandchildren of cream-of-the-crop Hispanic immigrants?

IQ tests were constructed by getting a group of kids considered successful and a group of kids not considered successful. Ask them a bunch of questions, throw out the questions that both groups can answer about the same, keep the questions that do a good job separating them out.

That's how they designed it. The original choice of "successful" vs. "not successful" entirely drives the test. At the time of the test's devising it was common knowledge that white people were the superior race, so it's basically a "are you a white person" test. Jews do well on IQ tests because we are awesome. And our entire culture has defined success through intensive study for the last four thousand years. It's why we're still around.

I'd like to see proof too, and I'm very curious about the transmission of *talent* from one generation to the next. All I know is that *wealth* gets passed down from one generation to the next. The tests you propose, IQ tests and college graduation rates, are pretty lousy metrics to use for fresh-off-the-boat immigrants. IMHO the ideal test would be lifetime jobs created by the businesses they create.

You are basically wrong in nearly every point you made here. I'm not going to take the time to explain it to you. Go do some more research. IQ is a real thing. It was developed and fine tuned by serious cognitive experts in an attempt to measure cognitive abilities that are not dependent on knowledge. And it does have a high correlation with success because it measures something important. And it's highly hereditary. Using twin studies and adoption studies, experts in the field have measured the heritebility
of IQ to be between 50% and 80%. More specifically, it's at the lower range of the estimate when looking at children, but adults are at the higher end of the range. (That is, children's IQ are affected by things other than genetics, but that effect diminishes with age. Environmental effects prove less and less influential as they get older. A child with two 130 IQ parents may be measured with an IQ of 110 or 150 when he is 8 years old, but as he gets older, that IQ is likely to drift much closer to 130, regardless of education).

Lol. Nothing you say in this post contradicts what I said. Yes, serious cognitive experts devised this test in the early 20th Century. They did it by choosing a group of kids they considered successful and a group they considered unsuccessful and kept questions that were good at differentiating them. Thus they embedded in the IQ test the racial biases at the time. This is a well known statistical artifact of these tests. We do not know how to measure intelligence. We don't know what intelligence is.

Ask any serious cognitive scientist and they will agree with me that IQ is a very flawed measure. I suspect the reason you like the IQ test so much is that it confirms your preconceived notion that white people have superior intelligence to certain other minorities you don't like. That very property is why serious cognitive scientists feel it is a flawed measure. It is not measuring what they want to measure.

I agree with you that all the statistical evidence seems to indicate that intelligence, however measured, is highly hereditary. I hope that's true because otherwise my argument about skimming off the cream of the crop from other countries would be moot.

But again, I'm going to keep repeating this, IQ and college graduation rates are a lousy metric to apply to newly arrived immigrants. I'll add that IQ is a lousy metric to compare hispanics to whites with, since the IQ test has built in biases favoring white people. As you point out, even though it is a lousy measure of intelligence *levels* there's nothing wrong with using it to track changes in intelligence over time for one person, or comparing parents to children.

Nevertheless, I propose (AGAIN) that the proper metric to apply to DACA beneficiaries is lifetime jobs created. Or perhaps the contribution to GDP of jobs created, to be a little more precise. The basis of this debate we're having is that the immigrants should be allowed in who are net contributors to the economy. Entrepreneurial success is what we're interested in. Academic success is only indirectly correlated with contribution to GDP. IQ is a good predictor of academic success, but is a less reliable predictor of entrepreneurial success.