Markelle Fultz Discussion III: For Fultz and going forward (see 2017 draft thread for trade discussion)

[mithrandir17]

Fultz without a 3 point shot is a much better option than Bayless with his 3 point shot

[SpoSucks]

I'm 99% confident It's not shoulder strength. I can't really get too deep into the details of why I'm that confident, but that's my confidence level.

Care to venture a guess of his state of mind? Is that the problem? Is he mentally all there?

[Sportfan73]

Would have to think that a lot of this started with them making the decision that his shot just wasn’t built for the nba 3 point line. Could seriously be a tear down that they wanted all along


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[the_process]

Would have to think that a lot of this started with them making the decision that his shot just wasn’t built for the nba 3 point line. Could seriously be a tear down that they wanted all along


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

On the FT’s, you could be on to something. But he was knocking down 3’s with ease in SL. And not corner 3’s, either, but top of the key 3’s.

[76ciology]

Offense shouldnt be that hard.

Watch the Pacers running the offense with constant PnR by Daren Collison and Oladipo with their bigs.

Not much high risk play and guys get better looks with much simpler action.

[Sportfan73]

Would have to think that a lot of this started with them making the decision that his shot just wasn’t built for the nba 3 point line. Could seriously be a tear down that they wanted all along


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

On the FT’s, you could be on to something. But he was knocking down 3’s with ease in SL. And not corner 3’s, either, but top of the key 3’s.

Sure but that’s very small sample size


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

[Kolkmania]

Biggest flaw with his current mechanics is he shoots it from his left hip. Crazy but thats like the crazy hot cousin of lonzo ball's shot

I don't really know why it would hurt his shot to be honest. It's not conventional however there are plenty of players that do this (Durant for example).

Personally I think the transition from a two-motion to one-motion shot has caused the problems. The brief moment to stop the upward motion of the ball and aim what's present in the two-motion shot has carried over to the one-motion shot, which is detrimental to the flow and rhythm of the shot.

[LloydFree]

Watch on YouTube

I don't usually endorse anyone listening to a video with Screamin' A in it, but Max Kellerman is voicing my narrative (Colangelo's fault) and that keeps me warm at night.

This is a good thing for the fans. I hope they keep harping on this until its a daily national story. Get Colangelo out of here before he does anymore damage.

[BigSleep333]

Fultz without a 3 point shot is a much better option than Bayless with his 3 point shot

yep. as down as i am on fultz, bayless is a freaking joke of a veteran player. only guy that stinks more than bayless is BC for signing him for 3 years.

[the_process]

Would have to think that a lot of this started with them making the decision that his shot just wasn’t built for the nba 3 point line. Could seriously be a tear down that they wanted all along


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

On the FT’s, you could be on to something. But he was knocking down 3’s with ease in SL. And not corner 3’s, either, but top of the key 3’s.

Sure but that’s very small sample size


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

Yeah. But his form was plenty good enough and it worked for him. Breaking that down on purpose would’ve been foolish. The FT form he had was hitchy, however, and now it actually looks better.

[ivysixer2000]

Biggest flaw with his current mechanics is he shoots it from his left hip. Crazy but thats like the crazy hot cousin of lonzo ball's shot

I don't really know why it would hurt his shot to be honest. It's not conventional however there are plenty of players that do this (Durant for example).

Personally I think the transition from a two-motion to one-motion shot has caused the problems. The brief moment to stop the upward motion of the ball and aim what's present in the two-motion shot has carried over to the one-motion shot, which is detrimental to the flow and rhythm of the shot.

I agree with this. He had that slight hitch at the top, Ben actually does the same alot, to hesitate and aim (almost releasing on the way down). Guys actually do it all the time at lower levels, and it was noticeable while Fultz was in college.

I do believe that he changed his shot to eliminate that brief moment that you speak of, something a lil hard to do since he's been doing it his whole life. Harden even does it a lil, I just don't know if its smart for Fultz to be trying to be like Curry. The quick release is good against NBA defenses obviously, but there are other ways to skin a cat by creating space and such.

[Kolkmania]

This ESPN article.

Reading the title, "This kid, he's going to be a superstar", made me curious. Perhaps some deep analysis or quotes/data from highly regarded guys around the league.

Turns out it's Marcus Morris: "When I got here, I saw how he holds himself, the swagger he's got. It reminded me of myself. He's a good kid and he's going to be around this league for a long time. ..."

"This kid, he's going to be a superstar."

This makes me frown as well: "Tatum leads the NBA in 3-point shooting at a staggering 46 percent clip. According to Second Spectrum shooting data, Tatum has a quantified shooter impact (qSI) of 15.4 percent, meaning that he shoots 15.4 percent better on 3-pointers than an average player in similar situations (based on defensive pressure, shot clock, and shot type). That mark ranks him third in the NBA behind only the Chicago Bulls' Nikola Mirotic (17.5) and the Golden State Warriors' Klay Thompson (15.6)."

So they're saying that the expected three point percentage of the shots Tatum takes is 30.6%?! I'd recommend to review that statistic, because that seems a bit pessimistic.

Followed by the usual takes that Tatum was their number one guy and sort of implying that it was the right decision by focusing on Markelle Fultz shooting issues. Went to see who the writer was and turns out it's a Boston beat writer, now it all makes sense.

[ivysixer2000]

This ESPN article.

Reading the title, "This kid, he's going to be a superstar", made me curious. Perhaps some deep analysis or quotes/data from highly regarded guys around the league.

Turns out it's Marcus Morris: "When I got here, I saw how he holds himself, the swagger he's got. It reminded me of myself. He's a good kid and he's going to be around this league for a long time. ..."

"This kid, he's going to be a superstar."

This makes me frown as well: "Tatum leads the NBA in 3-point shooting at a staggering 46 percent clip. According to Second Spectrum shooting data, Tatum has a quantified shooter impact (qSI) of 15.4 percent, meaning that he shoots 15.4 percent better on 3-pointers than an average player in similar situations (based on defensive pressure, shot clock, and shot type). That mark ranks him third in the NBA behind only the Chicago Bulls' Nikola Mirotic (17.5) and the Golden State Warriors' Klay Thompson (15.6)."

So they're saying that the expected three point percentage of the shots Tatum takes is 30.6%?! I'd recommend to review that statistic, because that seems a bit pessimistic.

Followed by the usual takes that Tatum was their number one guy and sort of implying that it was the right decision by focusing on Markelle Fultz shooting issues. Went to see who the writer was and turns out it's a Boston beat writer, now it all makes sense.

Tatum gets too much credit for the Celtics success while Kyrie and Stevens get wayyy too little of the credit.....unbelievably.

I'm actually glad they overrate their players, cause if they didn't they would have Anthony Davis by now. Outside of Kyrie, they should be willing to trade anyone on that team for AD, yet they don't cause they live in this dream world that thinks Tatum or some other young dude on the team will be as good as AD in a few years I have to guess.

So it makes me happy to see they think so much of Tatum and those other young dudes. That just means they won't be as good, cause make no mistake, I don't want to see Kyrie/AD for the next 10 years. Gotta love their hype train though, maybe Magic is a secret consultant of Ainge.

[JojoSlimbiid]

I feel Tatum get's an appropriate amount of credit. He's been a rookie and has excelled at what's been asked of him and has shown glimpses of being able to do more. I wouldn't of taken him 1st but he's been a lot better than the 6-7th spot a lot of mocks had him at before the draft. Having said that should probably keep discussion on him else where.

[HotelVitale]

"Tatum leads the NBA in 3-point shooting at a staggering 46 percent clip. According to Second Spectrum shooting data, Tatum has a quantified shooter impact (qSI) of 15.4 percent, meaning that he shoots 15.4 percent better on 3-pointers than an average player in similar situations (based on defensive pressure, shot clock, and shot type). That mark ranks him third in the NBA behind only the Chicago Bulls' Nikola Mirotic (17.5) and the Golden State Warriors' Klay Thompson (15.6)."
So they're saying that the expected three point percentage of the shots Tatum takes is 30.6%?! I'd recommend to review that statistic, because that seems a bit pessimistic.

Not sure if I'm understanding your problem right, but the stat seems pretty clear: compared to the average NBA shooter, Tatum is 15.4% more likely to hit shots across a wide range of situations (i.e. they're trying to go beyond just comparing overall 3pt% to include difficulty of shots, distance, etc). The only people in the league who have been that much better than average are Mirotic and Klay, so Tatum is 3rd overall in that stat.

Also, espn often does those local hype pieces--written about local interest and by a local beat writer--and puts them up on the main page since they're also going to catch a few national clicks. But you should understand that they're really for that specific team's fans and are always going to be pretty flattering to the team.

[rzzzzz]

well, Keith reports Fultz looked good in the warm ups last night, foul shots and quick pops at the edge of the paint. and he quoted Embid praising him around running the pick and roll, saying he "can't wait to be starting with him."

[gdog2004]

well, Keith reports Fultz looked good in the warm ups last night, foul shots and quick pops at the edge of the paint. and he quoted Embid praising him around running the pick and roll, saying he "can't wait to be starting with him."

I don't take anything any of the Sixers or BB say seriously about Fultz. Nothing in any of his videos indicate he's ready to play at an NBA level. My 8 year old can nail a few free throws in a row. He needs to be able to shoot to play, pure and simple. He's not Simmons where he can overwhelm with his size, we saw how that went when he tried. He needs to be able to shoot and make shots.

[Bum Adebayo]

well, Keith reports Fultz looked good in the warm ups last night, foul shots and quick pops at the edge of the paint. and he quoted Embid praising him around running the pick and roll, saying he "can't wait to be starting with him."

Nice to see Embiid praising Fultz, he is a good mentor for our young guys.

[Negrodamus]

well, Keith reports Fultz looked good in the warm ups last night, foul shots and quick pops at the edge of the paint. and he quoted Embid praising him around running the pick and roll, saying he "can't wait to be starting with him."

With us being in the thick of the playoff hunt, if he's playing as well as people are claiming, he is a must to play soon. Especially with Redick out.

[Kolkmania]

"Tatum leads the NBA in 3-point shooting at a staggering 46 percent clip. According to Second Spectrum shooting data, Tatum has a quantified shooter impact (qSI) of 15.4 percent, meaning that he shoots 15.4 percent better on 3-pointers than an average player in similar situations (based on defensive pressure, shot clock, and shot type). That mark ranks him third in the NBA behind only the Chicago Bulls' Nikola Mirotic (17.5) and the Golden State Warriors' Klay Thompson (15.6)."
So they're saying that the expected three point percentage of the shots Tatum takes is 30.6%?! I'd recommend to review that statistic, because that seems a bit pessimistic.

Not sure if I'm understanding your problem right, but the stat seems pretty clear: compared to the average NBA shooter, Tatum is 15.4% more likely to hit shots across a wide range of situations (i.e. they're trying to go beyond just comparing overall 3pt% to include difficulty of shots, distance, etc). The only people in the league who have been that much better than average are Mirotic and Klay, so Tatum is 3rd overall in that stat.

Also, espn often does those local hype pieces--written about local interest and by a local beat writer--and puts them up on the main page since they're also going to catch a few national clicks. But you should understand that they're really for that specific team's fans and are always going to be pretty flattering to the team.

Yeah I generally try to avoid ESPN articles, but this one appeared on my Twitter feed, should have known better.

Regarding the qSI value, I tried to look for the definition and the only information ESPN gives is this trivial explanation. So it's basically eFG - qSO, but we don't know how qSO is exactly calculated and the weighting of the criteria mentioned. So another "hidden" stat by ESPN .

The way I'm interpreting it, it seems that the conclusion from Forsberg is wrong. Tatum's eFG is 15.4% higher than the average NBA player who takes those shots, since eFG% and 3PT% aren't 1-on-1 related, the conclusion that he shoots 3 pointers 15.4% better is incorrect.