'17-'18 POY discussion

[bondom34]

Think this years ROY will be a fun vote for the first te in a while too.

[dhsilv2]

Think this years ROY will be a fun vote for the first te in a while too.

You think there's a real question about Simmons in a run away?

[bondom34]

Think this years ROY will be a fun vote for the first te in a while too.

You think there's a real question about Simmons in a run away?

I think Mitchell made it interesting to a point I consider it

[dhsilv2]

Think this years ROY will be a fun vote for the first te in a while too.

You think there's a real question about Simmons in a run away?

I think Mitchell made it interesting to a point I consider it

He's got a case certainly but I think it's rather poor next to simmons.

[bondom34]

You think there's a real question about Simmons in a run away?

I think Mitchell made it interesting to a point I consider it

He's got a case certainly but I think it's rather poor next to simmons.

Don't really disagree. Don't think it's poor per se but Simmons cooled a little and if I had to I might be able to make a case. At the least its a more interesting race than the last few years where its been pretty weak at the top.

Agree it is still Simmons for sure though so far.

Tatum and Kuzma also have been solid.

[dhsilv2]

I think Mitchell made it interesting to a point I consider it

He's got a case certainly but I think it's rather poor next to simmons.

Don't really disagree. Don't think it's poor per se but Simmons cooled a little and if I had to I might be able to make a case. At the least its a more interesting race than the last few years where its been pretty weak at the top.

Agree it is still Simmons for sure though so far.

Tatum and Kuzma also have been solid.

I think the rookie team this year might be the more interesting topic, it's a good/great class.

[clyde21]

Think this years ROY will be a fun vote for the first te in a while too.

You think there's a real question about Simmons in a run away?

I'm taking Mitchell at this point.

[dhsilv2]

Think this years ROY will be a fun vote for the first te in a while too.

You think there's a real question about Simmons in a run away?

I'm taking Mitchell at this point.

Explain? The defensive gap there is just so massive for me.

[MisterHibachi]

Not sure LeBron actually deserves to be top 5 considering how disappointing he's been, but it's hard to keep him out, because he's freaking LeBron James and he'll prove why he's still probably the best in the game in the playoffs again...but based on this RS so far, and if we discount injuries for a moment, I would say Curry, Harden, and Butler at minimum have been better, and it's not even close.

How can you say that given he was a top 2 candidate for MVP up til mid-December/late December. It's been a rough two-three week stretch for him, but that doesn't discount the lead he had on other guys prior to that. Butler had a terrible start to the year, Curry's missed a lot of time, and Harden's been out in the period that LeBron's been subpar so he couldn't have gained any sort of lead given they were neck and neck while he was healthy.

[ardee]

Not sure LeBron actually deserves to be top 5 considering how disappointing he's been, but it's hard to keep him out, because he's freaking LeBron James and he'll prove why he's still probably the best in the game in the playoffs again...but based on this RS so far, and if we discount injuries for a moment, I would say Curry, Harden, and Butler at minimum have been better, and it's not even close.

How can you say that given he was a top 2 candidate for MVP up til mid-December/late December. It's been a rough two-three week stretch for him, but that doesn't discount the lead he had on other guys prior to that. Butler had a terrible start to the year, Curry's missed a lot of time, and Harden's been out in the period that LeBron's been subpar so he couldn't have gained any sort of lead given they were neck and neck while he was healthy.

Thank you. What the hell is so disappointing about LeBron? He's putting up top 3 numbers in his career on a top 3 seed with a truly godawful supporting cast.

If anyone here actually wants to take Giannis or Jimmy freaking Butler over him in the Playoffs I don't even know what to say.

Only Curry and Harden have cases over him IMO.

1. Harden
2. LeBron
3. Curry
4. Giannis
5. AD/Durant

[ardee]

Very little mention of Durant, rather interesting.

[WarriorGM]

Based on RPM and using the WINS function to address minutes.

Butler
Westbrook
Cousins
Lebron
Harden

I've not seen a prior informed RAPM set yet this year and I wouldn't trust vanilla RAPM much with most players around 45 games played, so RPM is about the best we got for an impact stat. It certainly indicates lebron is a top 10 guy.

The more I learn about RPM the less I like it as a stat especially for the purposes of this topic. If RPM uses priors it is using information from previous seasons to judge this season's performance. For a player of the year discussion such information should have no bearing. As unreliable as vanilla RAPM is with a small sample size it at least addresses directly a player's performance this season. LeBron is ranked 111 according to vanilla RAPM. It's undoubtedly missing something that RPM brings but it occurs to me trying to interpret BPM and vanilla RAPM would make more sense than something using priors.

[dhsilv2]

Based on RPM and using the WINS function to address minutes.

Butler
Westbrook
Cousins
Lebron
Harden

I've not seen a prior informed RAPM set yet this year and I wouldn't trust vanilla RAPM much with most players around 45 games played, so RPM is about the best we got for an impact stat. It certainly indicates lebron is a top 10 guy.

The more I learn about RPM the less I like it as a stat especially for the purposes of this topic. If RPM uses priors it is using information from previous seasons to judge this season's performance. For a player of the year discussion such information should have no bearing. As unreliable as vanilla RAPM is with a small sample size it at least addresses directly a player's performance this season. LeBron is ranked 111 according to vanilla RAPM. It's undoubtedly missing something that RPM brings but it occurs to me trying to interpret BPM and vanilla RAPM would make more sense than something using priors.

RPM uses the current year box score plus some other things like height for the prior, there is nothing prior year in RPM prior.

FYI the prior for RPM is BPM more or less...so it is exactly what you're wanting.

[WarriorGM]

Based on RPM and using the WINS function to address minutes.

Butler
Westbrook
Cousins
Lebron
Harden

I've not seen a prior informed RAPM set yet this year and I wouldn't trust vanilla RAPM much with most players around 45 games played, so RPM is about the best we got for an impact stat. It certainly indicates lebron is a top 10 guy.

The more I learn about RPM the less I like it as a stat especially for the purposes of this topic. If RPM uses priors it is using information from previous seasons to judge this season's performance. For a player of the year discussion such information should have no bearing. As unreliable as vanilla RAPM is with a small sample size it at least addresses directly a player's performance this season. LeBron is ranked 111 according to vanilla RAPM. It's undoubtedly missing something that RPM brings but it occurs to me trying to interpret BPM and vanilla RAPM would make more sense than something using priors.

RPM uses the current year box score plus some other things like height for the prior, there is nothing prior year in RPM prior.

FYI the prior for RPM is BPM more or less...so it is exactly what you're wanting.

In that case it is most of what I'm looking for but I still consider it inappropriate. Can you imagine a situation of two players being tied in all statistical aspects but then saying one is shorter so is less deserving of player of the year? Defensible to say in such a situation you think the taller player is better but indefensible to say he is more deserving.

[dhsilv2]

The more I learn about RPM the less I like it as a stat especially for the purposes of this topic. If RPM uses priors it is using information from previous seasons to judge this season's performance. For a player of the year discussion such information should have no bearing. As unreliable as vanilla RAPM is with a small sample size it at least addresses directly a player's performance this season. LeBron is ranked 111 according to vanilla RAPM. It's undoubtedly missing something that RPM brings but it occurs to me trying to interpret BPM and vanilla RAPM would make more sense than something using priors.

RPM uses the current year box score plus some other things like height for the prior, there is nothing prior year in RPM prior.

FYI the prior for RPM is BPM more or less...so it is exactly what you're wanting.

In that case it is most of what I'm looking for but I still consider it inappropriate. Can you imagine a situation of two players being tied in all statistical aspects but then saying one is shorter so is less deserving of player of the year? Defensible to say in such a situation you think the taller player is better but indefensible to say he is more deserving.

RPM like any stats should be a +/- range view. So the prior for height is so small by year end that it likely isn't even seen in the rounding. So I don't see the issue or point of complaint. Much like in a poll where 51% favor something and 49% are against it, nearly always that poll tells us that it is too close to call. By contrast if the poll says it is 60% to 40% then we can draw a conclusion as the margin of error is likely ~3%.

If a stat is super close you should draw the conclusion that the two players are super close, and nothing more from that singular stat.

[Starboy]

All these lists without Lebron and Durant. Silly.

[Outside]

All these lists without Lebron and Durant. Silly.

I agree with LeBron, but with Durant, it depends on how deep you go. I don't have Durant in my top five.

1. Harden
2. Curry

3. LeBron

Then in no particular order
Giannis
DeRozan
Butler
Davis

Then I get to Durant and Kyrie.

There's not much separating a lot of guys at this point. A couple of guys should separate from the pack in the second half of the RS, which will decide the MVP. POY will get decided in the PS. This is all just preliminary jockeying for position at this point.

[Doctor MJ]

Y'know, I have to say. It's pretty dang awesome that you want to start this discussion so early in the regular season.
I love this enthusiasm.

[The-Power]

If anyone here actually wants to take Giannis or Jimmy freaking Butler over him in the Playoffs I don't even know what to say.

This is not the point of POY discussions, at all. It's an evaluation of past achievements and not projections of the future. Nobody who has Giannis or Butler ahead of LeBron is saying that they expect them to be ahead of LeBron at the end of the season, let alone that they'd rather have them over LeBron for the playoffs. They might, I don't know, but it's not at all expressed by the lists people hand in.

In other words: if you're down on LeBron this season, you can rank him fairly low while still believing that he's the best player in the league come playoff time, or that he'll start climbing up the lists eventually.

[The-Power]

I agree with LeBron, but with Durant, it depends on how deep you go. I don't have Durant in my top five.

1. Harden
2. Curry

3. LeBron

Then in no particular order
Giannis
DeRozan
Butler
Davis

Then I get to Durant and Kyrie.

I still don't get the DeRozan hype. His defense remains awful and while his offense has certainly improved to some extent, he's still nowhere near elite in terms of impact to make up for his poor defense when it comes to these kind of lists.