'17-'18 POY discussion

Post #61 » by **Doctor MJ** » Sat Jan 20, 2018 7:08 pm

I'll express my star player-oriented thoughts at this point.

- Whenever I see Curry at his best, I'm convinced he's a greater player than LeBron. Then something happens and Curry's star wanes in my mind until I feel silly thinking he could ever be in the same tier as LeBron. Deep down, I want to believe but I'll need to see Curry do it on the grandest stage before I seriously make that argument...again.

- That said from a POY perspective, it's quite possible Curry will top my list when all is said and done this year, or any future year, even if Durant wins the Finals MVP. Lots of things can happen, and frankly LeBron doesn't have a lot of margin for error given his team's less than ideal vibe.

- When I see Durant dominate on both ends of the floor, he really seems to be the best player in the world now, and on the same level as LeBron at his best. It remains fascinating that impact stats always seem to show him below both LeBron and Curry.

- I'm still a Harden fan, even though I get down on him sometimes. He's the closest thing to a local boy I got and I have a major BBIQ fetish (to say nothing of beards). It's been great seeing Harden take further steps forward. I'm really hoping that in the playoffs they look their best. I don't expect them to beat Golden State regardless, and frankly I'm not even rooting for that, but I don't think this team's should be a regular season mirage despite the fact that I totally get why people see them that way.

- I'm very curious to see what happens when Kawhi is back and 100%. Has Pop figured out how to use Aldridge the way he needs Aldridge to play, or has he just rented Aldridge to fill the alpha spot?

- My admiration for Jimmy Butler has increased. My evaluation of him as a player hasn't exactly improved, but the uncertainty range I had has condensed considerably and for the good. That intense personality of his clearly makes him something of a double edge sword, but the more I see from him, I'll take it, no reservations.

- OKC. I've been, what you might call, a foul weather Westbrook cynic. When times are good I talk less about him, when times are bad, I feel like I get my schadenfreude on too much. Trying to stop that, but obviously, things have been great, and my criticisms of Westbrook (to me at least) feel validated, again. But I still do think you can build a contending team around Westbrook, it's just that if he's ever going to truly lead an elite offense, I think it's going to have to be a thing where he's surrounded by great 3-point shooters, and when he isn't, his team's ceiling falls sharply.

- How 'bout Lou Freaking Williams? Can't imagine he'll be in my ballot consideration, but still, good for him.

- Pelican'ts. The good news is that Davis and Cousins are truly terrifying out there. The bad news is, if you've got twin towers, you're supposed to be good at defense. This is how it's been basically forever, and it's only more so now that the 3 dominates the game. Unless something massive changes there, this team isn't ever going to go anywhere serious. The sad part is that if I were NO, and Davis & Cousins wanted to both stay and play together, I don't think I could say no to that even if I see no signs that there defense will improve.

- Jokic. I can't pretend I'm not disappointed. I still think he's a worthy franchise player and deserves serious all-star consideration, but last year I thought he was the most exciting young player in the game after Embiid went down.

- Brad Stevens is scary. We might be seeing the beginnings of the next GOAT here. I admire the Celtic players, but I don't take any of them seriously as Top 5 level.

- How about Toronto?! This team is legit now. I'd still be on LeBron to win the East but in the past few seasons it's been Cleveland and the E-league. You knew that if LeBron got hurt, there wasn't a serious contender in the entire conference to even put up a fight agains the West champ. I still expect Golden State to take all comers, but the East has 3 teams worthy of being called contenders now.

- Washington really should be the 4th contender in the East. It's strange to me how they seem stuck in limbo.

- Milwaukee on the other hand doesn't seem like a mystery. It's been fascinating to see the way Buck fans have turned on Jason Kidd. Can't say I blame them.

- I'm happy for Indiana and Oladipo. Oladipo probably won't be a serious POY contender, but it's a feel good thing, and it's cool he succeeded by coming back to where he played college ball. But the Pacer organization specifically to me seems like they were did wrong by George. I'm not saying George didn't have a right to play where he wanted to play, but it really felt like he resented the organization for the way the team fell off in the last few years...but that George's attitude was a major part of that fall off. When things started going not-as-good as they'd be before, he reacted less than ideally and it then led to a spiral reminiscent of truly incompetent franchises. And I don't think the Pacers have ever been poorly run by any fair standard.

- Embiid's amazing. The game just seems so easy for him. I'm just hoping we get to see what he's truly capable of.

Post #62 » by **bondom34** » Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:15 pm

Even if it's "validating" Westbrook still remains a top 5 guy for many itt and has been at or near the top in APM. Again. Their play improving actually has to do with him playing like himself again and not trying to be what people have said he "should be".

Post #63 » by **Outside** » Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:42 pm

The-Power wrote:
Outside wrote:I agree with LeBron, but with Durant, it depends on how deep you go. I don't have Durant in my top five.

1. Harden
2. Curry

3. LeBron

Then in no particular order
Giannis
DeRozan
Butler
Davis

Then I get to Durant and Kyrie.

I still don't get the DeRozan hype. His defense remains awful and while his offense has certainly improved to some extent, he's still nowhere near elite in terms of impact to make up for his poor defense when it comes to these kind of lists.

DeRozan this season -- 25.1 pts, 5.0 ast, 4.2 reb, 1.1 stl, 2.3 tov, 57.6 TS%, 8th in WS, 15th in WS/48. He's expanded his range out to threes now, making a career-best 34.8% on a career high 3.1 attempts. He's not drawing FTs quite as much as in previous seasons but still has a good 7.7 FTA per game.

The stats are good, not fantastic. Where he jumps into the third tier for me is that like the other guys in that tier, he is the most impactful player on a good team. In DeRozan's case, he is lifting his team to exceed expectations -- they were widely expected to take a step back with the departures of DeMarre Carroll, Cory Joseph, Patrick Patterson, PJ Tucker, and Terrence Ross. Toronto is second in the East, has the fourth-best record in the league, and is on pace for 57 wins (they had 51 last season), and they're doing that with supposedly a worse roster and while Kyle Lowry is having a down season. DeRozan is the main reason why they're doing so well.

therealbig3 · Post #64 » by **therealbig3** » Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:04 pm

MisterHibachi wrote:
therealbig3 wrote:Not sure LeBron actually deserves to be top 5 considering how disappointing he's been, but it's hard to keep him out, because he's freaking LeBron James and he'll prove why he's still probably the best in the game in the playoffs again...but based on this RS so far, and if we discount injuries for a moment, I would say Curry, Harden, and Butler at minimum have been better, and it's not even close.

How can you say that given he was a top 2 candidate for MVP up til mid-December/late December. It's been a rough two-three week stretch for him, but that doesn't discount the lead he had on other guys prior to that. Butler had a terrible start to the year, Curry's missed a lot of time, and Harden's been out in the period that LeBron's been subpar so he couldn't have gained any sort of lead given they were neck and neck while he was healthy.

That 2-3 week stretch is a pretty big deal, and I also feel that it's quite possible that you're overrating how good he was earlier in the year by quite a bit.

For example, I don't think they were neck and neck. Harden was better by a lot.

The-Power · Post #65 » by **The-Power** » Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:08 pm

Outside wrote:
The-Power wrote:
Outside wrote:I agree with LeBron, but with Durant, it depends on how deep you go. I don't have Durant in my top five.

1. Harden
2. Curry

3. LeBron

Then in no particular order
Giannis
DeRozan
Butler
Davis

Then I get to Durant and Kyrie.

I still don't get the DeRozan hype. His defense remains awful and while his offense has certainly improved to some extent, he's still nowhere near elite in terms of impact to make up for his poor defense when it comes to these kind of lists.

DeRozan this season -- 25.1 pts, 5.0 ast, 4.2 reb, 1.1 stl, 2.3 tov, 57.6 TS%, 8th in WS, 15th in WS/48. He's expanded his range out to threes now, making a career-best 34.8% on a career high 3.1 attempts. He's not drawing FTs quite as much as in previous seasons but still has a good 7.7 FTA per game.

The stats are good, not fantastic. Where he jumps into the third tier for me is that like the other guys in that tier, he is the most impactful player on a good team. In DeRozan's case, he is lifting his team to exceed expectations -- they were widely expected to take a step back with the departures of DeMarre Carroll, Cory Joseph, Patrick Patterson, PJ Tucker, and Terrence Ross. Toronto is second in the East, has the fourth-best record in the league, and is on pace for 57 wins (they had 51 last season), and they're doing that with supposedly a worse roster and while Kyle Lowry is having a down season. DeRozan is the main reason why they're doing so well.

I wouldn't say DeRozan is ‘lifting his team to exceed expectations‘ – I wouldn't even necessarily say that he's ‘the most impactful player on a good team‘. Sure, I'm open to consider that but even if he is, it's not clear-cut by any means.

Just some food for thought:
- DeRozan's on/off net rating is at -0.7 mainly due to having the by far worst on/off DRTG on the entire team with +8.9.
- In NPI S-Y RAPM he ranks solidly at #38 with a score of 2.07 – but that's still nothing to be too excited about.
- In ESPN's RPM, famously including a boxscore prior, he comes in at #43 (2.19).

As we can see, plus-minus numbers are still not in love with DeRozan even though he looks a bit better than in previous years iirc.

The Raptors strike me as a cohesive unit with impacts from all players. DeRozan deserves some credit for Toronto's performances, of course, but so do the other players on the team. Many players are scoring efficiently and I'm not sure I'm willing to give DeRozan most of the credit for this efficiency as, while improved, he's never been known for improving his teammates with a style of play that's by and large focused on his own production (limited playmaking, little spacing-provision, lots of isolation scoring). I see no reason to believe that all of a sudden his impact on his team's offense goes from very low to star-level in one off-season – not until we have more evidence for such a turnaround.

Furthermore, let's not forget that the Raptors currently have the 4th best DRTG in the league – which is a big part of their success – and DeRozan has very little to do with that. It is, imo, just another testament to the cohesiveness and success of the system in place, along with players who perform off each other and fit well together. DeRozan deserves some credit but not so much to be in the same categorie as Butler, Giannis, Durant, Davis or even Kyrie, imo (although a lot of what I wrote above also applies to the Irving and Celtics to some extent, so I'm definitely open to listen to arguments for having DeRozan over Irving).

MisterHibachi · Post #66 » by **MisterHibachi** » Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:13 pm

therealbig3 wrote:
MisterHibachi wrote:
therealbig3 wrote:Not sure LeBron actually deserves to be top 5 considering how disappointing he's been, but it's hard to keep him out, because he's freaking LeBron James and he'll prove why he's still probably the best in the game in the playoffs again...but based on this RS so far, and if we discount injuries for a moment, I would say Curry, Harden, and Butler at minimum have been better, and it's not even close.

How can you say that given he was a top 2 candidate for MVP up til mid-December/late December. It's been a rough two-three week stretch for him, but that doesn't discount the lead he had on other guys prior to that. Butler had a terrible start to the year, Curry's missed a lot of time, and Harden's been out in the period that LeBron's been subpar so he couldn't have gained any sort of lead given they were neck and neck while he was healthy.

That 2-3 week stretch is a pretty big deal, and I also feel that it's quite possible that you're overrating how good he was earlier in the year by quite a bit.

For example, I don't think they were neck and neck. Harden was better by a lot.

Why's it a big deal when the other players have just as bad a stretch at some point? Curry's missed time, Harden's been out the entire time LeBron's been bad, and Butler was just as bad or worse to start the season for like a month.

And disagree with Harden having a significant lead, if any over LeBron prior to injury. LeBron was playing above average defense, especially during the win streak and was right there offensively as well. I think you're overrating Harden.

therealbig3 · Post #67 » by **therealbig3** » Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:15 pm

MisterHibachi wrote:
therealbig3 wrote:
MisterHibachi wrote:
How can you say that given he was a top 2 candidate for MVP up til mid-December/late December. It's been a rough two-three week stretch for him, but that doesn't discount the lead he had on other guys prior to that. Butler had a terrible start to the year, Curry's missed a lot of time, and Harden's been out in the period that LeBron's been subpar so he couldn't have gained any sort of lead given they were neck and neck while he was healthy.

That 2-3 week stretch is a pretty big deal, and I also feel that it's quite possible that you're overrating how good he was earlier in the year by quite a bit.

For example, I don't think they were neck and neck. Harden was better by a lot.

Why's it a big deal when the other players have just as bad a stretch at some point? Curry's missed time, Harden's been out the entire time LeBron's been bad, and Butler was just as bad or worse to start the season for like a month.

And disagree with Harden having a significant lead, if any over LeBron prior to injury. LeBron was playing above average defense, especially during the win streak and was right there offensively as well. I think you're overrating Harden.

+/- had Harden with a significant lead over LeBron IIRC, and he's never closed the gap.

MisterHibachi · Post #68 » by **MisterHibachi** » Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:15 pm

therealbig3 wrote:
MisterHibachi wrote:
therealbig3 wrote:
That 2-3 week stretch is a pretty big deal, and I also feel that it's quite possible that you're overrating how good he was earlier in the year by quite a bit.

For example, I don't think they were neck and neck. Harden was better by a lot.

Why's it a big deal when the other players have just as bad a stretch at some point? Curry's missed time, Harden's been out the entire time LeBron's been bad, and Butler was just as bad or worse to start the season for like a month.

And disagree with Harden having a significant lead, if any over LeBron prior to injury. LeBron was playing above average defense, especially during the win streak and was right there offensively as well. I think you're overrating Harden.

+/- had Harden with a significant lead over LeBron IIRC, and he's never closed the gap.

When I checked in early December, cleaning the glass had them both around +0.5~ net rating.

edit:

LeBron: -1.1 https://www.cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/1785/onoff
Harden: +0.9 https://www.cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/1487/onoff

Accounting for the last three weeks of bad play, that +0.5 in early December sounds right.

therealbig3 · Post #69 » by **therealbig3** » Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:19 pm

MisterHibachi wrote:
therealbig3 wrote:
MisterHibachi wrote:
Why's it a big deal when the other players have just as bad a stretch at some point? Curry's missed time, Harden's been out the entire time LeBron's been bad, and Butler was just as bad or worse to start the season for like a month.

And disagree with Harden having a significant lead, if any over LeBron prior to injury. LeBron was playing above average defense, especially during the win streak and was right there offensively as well. I think you're overrating Harden.

+/- had Harden with a significant lead over LeBron IIRC, and he's never closed the gap.

When I checked in early December, cleaning the glass had them both around +0.5~ net rating.

What about RPM though? If I'm not mistaken, Harden has been #1 in the league basically all year, and LeBron was always behind by not an insignificant amount.

And let's be honest, LeBron hasn't had the best RS since 2013. We always end up ranking him #1 because of his playoffs. But I'm kind of at the point where I'm not sure he can still ramp it up to that level anymore, because even if he does it offensively, I really don't know if he has the stamina to not be a liability on defense any more, if he has to focus everything on offense. So I'm kind of in wait and see mode with him right now.

MisterHibachi · Post #70 » by **MisterHibachi** » Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:28 pm

therealbig3 wrote:
MisterHibachi wrote:
therealbig3 wrote:
+/- had Harden with a significant lead over LeBron IIRC, and he's never closed the gap.

When I checked in early December, cleaning the glass had them both around +0.5~ net rating.

What about RPM though? If I'm not mistaken, Harden has been #1 in the league basically all year, and LeBron was always behind by not an insignificant amount.

And let's be honest, LeBron hasn't had the best RS since 2013. We always end up ranking him #1 because of his playoffs. But I'm kind of at the point where I'm not sure he can still ramp it up to that level anymore, because even if he does it offensively, I really don't know if he has the stamina to not be a liability on defense any more, if he has to focus everything on offense. So I'm kind of in wait and see mode with him right now.

I thought he was up to 2nd or 3rd at one point in RPM but I don't track that super close tbh, especially this early in the season so idk. I don't think RPM deserves a whole lot of discussion at this point in the season, let alone early December.

And I said this in the LeBron thread, I don't think he would make an average defensive team worse. It's almost impossible to be a positive defensively in the lineups he's playing with. He could do better obviously, but I think calling him a liability in a vacuum is wrong. He's a bit too slow to guard quick wings anymore, but still holds a ton of value guarding 4s, especially if he had some help behind him. He's not a cover everything guy anymore either, but he's still capable of making the right rotations and the right reads. The rest of the cast is just so bad defensively it's impossible to look good. 2012 LeBron would seem like an average defensive player with these guys.

But you do have to consider what the results actually are so I understand when people downgrade him because of the defensive results.

Post #71 » by **Doctor MJ** » Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:53 pm

The-Power wrote:
ardee wrote:If anyone here actually wants to take Giannis or Jimmy freaking Butler over him in the Playoffs I don't even know what to say.

This is not the point of POY discussions, at all. It's an evaluation of past achievements and not projections of the future. Nobody who has Giannis or Butler ahead of LeBron is saying that they expect them to be ahead of LeBron at the end of the season, let alone that they'd rather have them over LeBron for the playoffs. They might, I don't know, but it's not at all expressed by the lists people hand in.

In other words: if you're down on LeBron this season, you can rank him fairly low while still believing that he's the best player in the league come playoff time, or that he'll start climbing up the lists eventually.

I like these points, though I'll say that this is what's tricky about the dominance of the playoffs in our minds and trying to talk about this award we've made in January.

The approach ardee seems to be using is a Power Rankings style approach where you're evaluating expectation of total performance rather than on current performance. To the degree that's the case, it seems fine to me because by season's end, the two techniques converge.

One more thing while I think of it:

The line I drew in the sand when I gave original criteria was that it had to be based on impact that year, but it did not have to BE the impact of that year. So, in the '69 discussion, I rejected a vote for Wilt Chamberlain because the reasoning given not that his performance merited the ranking, but that in a different scenario would have performed a lot better. However if he had made the right argument, I'd have accepted it.

What kind of argument could that have been? Something like:

"Wilt didn't actually impact the Lakers performance much that year, but his play was stellar as ever, and it was just the awkward fit that reduced his impact."

The poster in question didn't write that because that's not what he believed, which showed him to be a knowledgeable basketball fan, but let him in to conflict with my, admittedly somewhat arbitrary, criteria. Had he written that, it would have said not-so-good things of his understanding of the events in question imho, but I'm not going to reject a vote simply because I think it's wrong.

Post #72 » by **PaulieWal** » Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:29 pm

Somebody tell me I am being crazy but I am not impressed by Harden at all. Even now I'd take Curry, Bron, KD, Russ over him. Plus the high variance game he plays has always flamed out in the playoffs. Even in 2015 he pretty much flamed out before getting his ass saved by a typical Clippers collapse in the playoffs.

I just think Harden gets over-rated by his pretty offensive numbers and "impact stats" which haven't been enough to sway me of his "goodness" as a player.

Post #73 » by **bondom34** » Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:33 pm

PaulieWal wrote:Somebody tell me I am being crazy but I am not impressed by Harden at all. Even now I'd take Curry, Bron, KD, Russ over him. Plus the high variance game he plays has always flamed out in the playoffs. Even in 2015 he pretty much flamed out before getting his ass saved by a typical Clippers collapse in the playoffs.

I just think Harden gets over-rated by his pretty offensive numbers and "impact stats" which haven't been enough to sway me of his "goodness" as a player.

I still have him as 1st slightly but he's falling fast from an unsustainable start. Agree he gets overrated by box score and for intangibles that I don't see. I don't think he's terribly high bbiq or as portable as people claim

Westbrook climbing after today and not to be a homer but OKC may have 2 in running for dpoy

ShotCreator · Post #74 » by **ShotCreator** » Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:05 am

PaulieWal wrote:Somebody tell me I am being crazy but I am not impressed by Harden at all. Even now I'd take Curry, Bron, KD, Russ over him. Plus the high variance game he plays has always flamed out in the playoffs. Even in 2015 he pretty much flamed out before getting his ass saved by a typical Clippers collapse in the playoffs.

I just think Harden gets over-rated by his pretty offensive numbers and "impact stats" which haven't been enough to sway me of his "goodness" as a player.

Durant hasn't even been in Harden's stratosphere this year. And I'm not high on Harden. LeBron is comfortably worse as well. I never felt the MVP race was all that close between them.

Harden is to the Rockets as Curry is to the Warriors. Durant's impact isn't even comparable. Ability as players, and skillset wise is a different thing. Harden draws a lot of fouls, some due to getting defenders out of position going downhill, and other cheap things, but I think it would be crazy to put Durant over Harden in terms of how they've moved the needle for their teams this year.

Peregrine01 · Post #75 » by **Peregrine01** » Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:11 am

When Russ plays the overall floor game like he did today, it's hard to think of a player more "everywhere" than him. His motor is just insane.

I still think of Steph as the most impactful player in the game. And it's ridiculous how the rest of the team can effectively play 4v3 with him on the floor. It is noteworthy that whenever the Cavs play the Dubs they seem hellbent in getting the ball out of Curry's hands - which hurts his production but elevates that of KD's. This strategy hasn't been shown to be successful in beating the Dubs but the Cavs don't seem inclined to alter their strategy.

Post #76 » by **Doctor MJ** » Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:41 am

Clyde Frazier wrote:A little off topic, but seeing as how kawhi will be nowhere near the top 5 due to injury, the spurs are working their wizardry yet again. They’re on pace for 53 wins with kawhi only playing in 9 of the first 46 at 23.3 MPG. Their core is essentially LMA, 37 year old gasol and kyle anderson.

I mean… are we basically talking about pop as the greatest coach of all time due to this sustained level of success with at times less than optimal talent? I know people have had that stance before, but really — it’s incredible.

Yes. Absolutely yes.

One thing I'll say though: I don't think that means that Kawhi at his best wasn't a top 5 player. I think in a case like Aldridge we're largely just seeing him get the best out of him by giving his guy the opportunities he has the skills to exploit.

Post #77 » by **Outside** » Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:43 am

The-Power wrote:I wouldn't say DeRozan is ‘lifting his team to exceed expectations‘ – I wouldn't even necessarily say that he's ‘the most impactful player on a good team‘. Sure, I'm open to consider that but even if he is, it's not clear-cut by any means.

Have you watched them play? He is definitely their most impactful player in the games I've seen, but maybe you've seen more than I have.

In years past, it was a tag team of Lowry and DeRozan, with Lowry being the more impactful one. DeRozan's range basically ended at long twos, and he fit the mold of a high volume, low percentage guy who made up for it somewhat by drawing fouls. Lowry had a lower scoring average but was significantly more efficient (62.3 TS% last year compared to DeRozan's 55.2), and the offense ran through him.

This year, instead of relying on their big 2, the Raptors are playing more Warriors-style -- motion, passing, threes, and distributed scoring. Lowry's game has taken a significant dip -- his USG% has dropped from 24.9 to 21.8 (12.5% lower), but his scoring has dropped by 27% from 22.4 to 16.4, and his TS% has dropped to 59.1. DeRozan's USG% has dropped by a similar amount (34.3 to 30.1, 12.2% lower), but his scoring has dropped only 8% (27.3 to 25.1), his TS% rose from 55.2 to 57.6, and his AST% rose from 20.6 to 24.5, all while keeping his TOV% at an excellent 9.5.

Last season, Lowry led the team in WS, WS/48, BPM, and VORP, most by wide margins. This year, DeRozan leads in WS and WS/48, and he's closed the gap in BPM and VORP.

I've seen several Raptors games, and he has clearly been their leader in those games. His game has matured and is blossoming in the new offense.

Just some food for thought:
- DeRozan's on/off net rating is at -0.7 mainly due to having the by far worst on/off DRTG on the entire team with +8.9.
- In NPI S-Y RAPM he ranks solidly at #38 with a score of 2.07 – but that's still nothing to be too excited about.
- In ESPN's RPM, famously including a boxscore prior, he comes in at #43 (2.19).

As we can see, plus-minus numbers are still not in love with DeRozan even though he looks a bit better than in previous years iirc.

You're more adept with advanced stats than I am, but I've come to be skeptical of taking on/off at face value. For star players in particular, it can often say more about how much about how good the bench is and how much the system depends on that particular player. Since the Toronto offense is more evenly distributed, it can function better when DeRozan or Lowry sits, while in years past, if one of those guys sat, the defense would load up on the one guy left in the game. LeBron's on/off was really high in prior years but is around zero this year, but that's a function of now having a bench that can create offense on its own and the fact that the starters have done really poorly, which says more about the team than it does about LeBron.

Lowry's on/off looks similar to DeRozan's as far as I can tell. I think this says more about the performance of the other guys than it does about Lowry and DeRozan, because they're clearly better when both guys play.

The Raptors strike me as a cohesive unit with impacts from all players. DeRozan deserves some credit for Toronto's performances, of course, but so do the other players on the team. Many players are scoring efficiently and I'm not sure I'm willing to give DeRozan most of the credit for this efficiency as, while improved, he's never been known for improving his teammates with a style of play that's by and large focused on his own production (limited playmaking, little spacing-provision, lots of isolation scoring). I see no reason to believe that all of a sudden his impact on his team's offense goes from very low to star-level in one off-season – not until we have more evidence for such a turnaround.

I agree for the most part, though I think your characterization of DeRozan (limited playmaking, little spacing-provision, lots of isolation scoring) isn't as true as in the past. He has improved in all of those areas. His AST%, for example, is higher than Butler's and the same as Durant's and Irving's, but they are somehow considered better playmakers. There's more to playmaking than AST%, but still, I think this is more a reflection of the reputation that DeRozan has built up over the years than the reality of what he's doing this year.

Furthermore, let's not forget that the Raptors currently have the 4th best DRTG in the league – which is a big part of their success – and DeRozan has very little to do with that. It is, imo, just another testament to the cohesiveness and success of the system in place, along with players who perform off each other and fit well together. DeRozan deserves some credit but not so much to be in the same categorie as Butler, Giannis, Durant, Davis or even Kyrie, imo (although a lot of what I wrote above also applies to the Irving and Celtics to some extent, so I'm definitely open to listen to arguments for having DeRozan over Irving).

The also have the 4th best ORtg, and DeRozan has a lot to do with that.

I don't have DeRozan in the top tier. Harden, Curry, and LeBron are separated from the pack, but I don't see the problem with having DeRozan in that pack.

Post #78 » by **Doctor MJ** » Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:05 am

eminence wrote:
ardee wrote:All this Butler love has been unexpected to say the least. The guy is being outperformed statistically by his own teammate.

Ehh, I think you could say Towns has performed evenly with him box-score statistically, with Butler ahead in the +/- family and also the clear team leader.

Adds up to a clear edge to Butler for me.

I wanted to add that I think it's no small thing what Butler appears to have done to the team culture. I say "appears", because all of this is contingent. Butler's personality is strong and at times very harsh. Such things can go a bad way, and go there in a hurry. But at the moment, it seems like it's given KAT a kick in the ass he was ready to learn from.

If the mood and momentum remain strong the rest of the season, and I still see Butler's name at the top of things like the RPM leaderboard, quite honestly, I'll consider him a strong POY candidate even though I'm quite sure that I'm not going to think he's as good as LeBron or Curry. Just because culture transformation isn't something you can do every year doesn't mean the impact of the players spearheading it don't deserve credit during the season in question.

Post #79 » by **bondom34** » Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:31 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
eminence wrote:
ardee wrote:All this Butler love has been unexpected to say the least. The guy is being outperformed statistically by his own teammate.

Ehh, I think you could say Towns has performed evenly with him box-score statistically, with Butler ahead in the +/- family and also the clear team leader.

Adds up to a clear edge to Butler for me.

I wanted to add that I think it's no small thing what Butler appears to have done to the team culture. I say "appears", because all of this is contingent. Butler's personality is strong and at times very harsh. Such things can go a bad way, and go there in a hurry. But at the moment, it seems like it's given KAT a kick in the ass he was ready to learn from.

If the mood and momentum remain strong the rest of the season, and I still see Butler's name at the top of things like the RPM leaderboard, quite honestly, I'll consider him a strong POY candidate even though I'm quite sure that I'm not going to think he's as good as LeBron or Curry. Just because culture transformation isn't something you can do every year doesn't mean the impact of the players spearheading it don't deserve credit during the season in question.

Just read this post and wanted to note something, because I'm not sure if the "culture" thing is true or what effect it may have in this case, but he's out tonight. I'm interested to see how they hold without him.

Also RE: Derozan, he's greatly improved. I'm not sure where I put him in the POY discussion, but I've never been a fan until this year and he's overtaken Lowry as their best/most important player. Added a 3, some playmaking, generally carrying the offense. Still bad on defense but has been excellent overall.

Post #80 » by **Doctor MJ** » Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:31 am

PaulieWal wrote:Somebody tell me I am being crazy but I am not impressed by Harden at all. Even now I'd take Curry, Bron, KD, Russ over him. Plus the high variance game he plays has always flamed out in the playoffs. Even in 2015 he pretty much flamed out before getting his ass saved by a typical Clippers collapse in the playoffs.

I just think Harden gets over-rated by his pretty offensive numbers and "impact stats" which haven't been enough to sway me of his "goodness" as a player.

I take Curry & LeBron over him when they are on.
I think there's no reason to see Durant as inherently more valuable than Harden, but I do like Durant better when he's at his best.

I personally place Harden clearly above Westbrook, but I don't think you're remotely alone on that front.

If that's your only stuff I don't think that's crazy. If you actually don't believe Harden at all though, well then I think you're not being rational.