Season Speculation, Trade Ideas & Discussion Pt. 5

[bwoolf2]

We need to stop looking at blockbuster trades for Kemba Walker who is going to want 120 million a year and think more something along the lines Mudiay, I think Denver would move him and I think he would be worth this years Miami Pick. He at least gives us some size and pg and gives a half a year to figure out if he is a good fit with Booker or if we need to draft a pg.

[bwgood77]

Kawhi “distant” from spurs. Giannis “devastated” by Kidd’s firing. This is exactly why I’m not ready to give up our assets for someone like Kemba Walker. Not saying either of these guys are available today but a true superstar can become available at any moment. We need to be ready for it.

Yet no one sees the irony of a distant Kawhi when the Spurs currently are tied third best record in the West, or a devastated Giannis when the Bucks are currently in the 7th seed in the East. And Booker is this happy-go-lucky kid that is completely content being on a bottom of the barrel team with the Suns, even though Giannis is only two years older than Booker. Not to mention, two of our amazing assets (Heat pick, Bucks pick) expire after the draft, the only real asset we have left is the 2021 Miami Heat Pick. Let's be realistic, using those picks on the rookies we want, is kind of like buying a new car as soon as you leave the lot, the car loses half of it's value. Same with the pick, as soon as we make our choice the rookie's value is now severely diminished.

Again, I'm not advocating trading for Kemba (I really don't like his style... or his height), but if an opportunity arises over the summer like it did last summer, we better pounce. Lillard, McCollum, Blake Griffin could all be potential trade targets. Schroder and Vucevic could be more attainable trade targets. Paul George, Boogie Cousins, and Deandre Jordan are all unrestricted free agents. Restriced free agent such as Aaron Gordon, Clint Capela, Zach Lavine could possibly be stolen (though I think all three teams will easily match). Just saying, we better not just draft 3 more rookies and expect any significant changes at least over the next 2 years in terms of wins and losses. I know we are currently the 5th worst team in the league, and I don't mind standing pat this trade deadline, but we better make some incredible changes this summer.

The shiny new car that loses half it's value...obviously that depends..not if you draft a Devin Booker, or Myles Turner, or Rudy Gobert later, or Draymond Green in the 2nd round. Though it's rare, it's still probably a better chance to draft a key player, and sometimes anywhere in the draft, than to trade for or sign a star. And of course you control their rights for a lot longer if you want to.

It's funny when I was responding to your last post about the Pelicans, the thought popped into my head "Boy do we need to draft our Anthony Davis. And this could be the type of draft that has such a player up near the top.

About your last comment, that if we draft 3 rookies we won't get any better in wins and losses. You don't think we our young players will improve? I mean Booker took a massive step in year 3. I thought you felt we could maybe win 40% of our games and get over 30 wins. It feels like we have improved over last year despite losing what many thought was an all star caliber point guard. I think Booker will continue to improve and I think Jackson will likely show major improvement. It would be great if Warren could start hitting the 3, so I'm glad he has to shoot 500 of them a day.

It will be interesting to see what we do this summer. It will likely depend on how the draft plays out, but I expect we will sign a vet. I don't think we will be able to sign for or trade for any of those guys. I have no interest in Schroder. Not really that much in Vucevic (seems like at least half the Magic fans hate him)...and I agree with you that those RFA's will be matched. I think George goes to LA or maybe OKC and Boogie stays in NO. I'm not sure about DeAndre Jordan.

I think Blake IS LAC (it doesn't seem often that a max guy who has signed his 3rd contract with the team that drafted him is traded)...and Lillard IS Portland. I'd be pretty surprised if either were moved or McCollum, but maybe we can give Napier an offer sheet. Though I guess with the post below this one about Lillard, who knows with him?

Interesting point about Kawhi not being happy even though he's on a 3 seed and Giannis devastated that Kidd is fired...and they are 7 seed.

Then you have a guy like Kemba, who just was an all star for the first time, and the team is struggling outside of the playoffs, and there are trade rumors and says he would be devastated to be traded, and has basically been that team's star and the city has really embraced him, etc. To me, Booker feels more like that type of guy. I think he likes being the face of the franchise and the guy and being so embraced by the fans and community. He'd likely lose a lot of that if he was traded to a team with a couple of other stars.

[darealjuice]

Read on Twitter

Now this might be something worth keeping an eye on. Dame has been clear about how much he loves Portland and I doubt he's thinking of leaving now, but they are a little stuck with their terrible cap situation limiting improvement methods to trades and draft without the assets to acquire another all star. Another year of squeaking into the playoffs and getting blasted in the first round might just make him a bit more available this offseason though.

[LukasBMW]

Look at all these big ass cry babies

Lebron...Waaaa Waaaa...I need more talent.

Giannis...Waaaa Waaaaa...I liked my coach. He treated me special.

Kawai.... Waaaa Waaaaa... I don't like the Spurs rushing me back

Lillard Waaaa Waaaa... I want my team to put better players around me.

STFU! How about you compete like the good old days?

I'm getting real sick of these overpaid divas. Making it hard to be a sports fan.

[Qwigglez]

Kawhi “distant” from spurs. Giannis “devastated” by Kidd’s firing. This is exactly why I’m not ready to give up our assets for someone like Kemba Walker. Not saying either of these guys are available today but a true superstar can become available at any moment. We need to be ready for it.

Yet no one sees the irony of a distant Kawhi when the Spurs currently are tied third best record in the West, or a devastated Giannis when the Bucks are currently in the 7th seed in the East. And Booker is this happy-go-lucky kid that is completely content being on a bottom of the barrel team with the Suns, even though Giannis is only two years older than Booker. Not to mention, two of our amazing assets (Heat pick, Bucks pick) expire after the draft, the only real asset we have left is the 2021 Miami Heat Pick. Let's be realistic, using those picks on the rookies we want, is kind of like buying a new car as soon as you leave the lot, the car loses half of it's value. Same with the pick, as soon as we make our choice the rookie's value is now severely diminished.

Again, I'm not advocating trading for Kemba (I really don't like his style... or his height), but if an opportunity arises over the summer like it did last summer, we better pounce. Lillard, McCollum, Blake Griffin could all be potential trade targets. Schroder and Vucevic could be more attainable trade targets. Paul George, Boogie Cousins, and Deandre Jordan are all unrestricted free agents. Restriced free agent such as Aaron Gordon, Clint Capela, Zach Lavine could possibly be stolen (though I think all three teams will easily match). Just saying, we better not just draft 3 more rookies and expect any significant changes at least over the next 2 years in terms of wins and losses. I know we are currently the 5th worst team in the league, and I don't mind standing pat this trade deadline, but we better make some incredible changes this summer.

The shiny new car that loses half it's value...obviously that depends..not if you draft a Devin Booker, or Myles Turner, or Rudy Gobert later, or Draymond Green in the 2nd round. Though it's rare, it's still probably a better chance to draft a key player, and sometimes anywhere in the draft, than to trade for or sign a star. And of course you control their rights for a lot longer if you want to.

It's funny when I was responding to your last post about the Pelicans, the thought popped into my head "Boy do we need to draft our Anthony Davis. And this could be the type of draft that has such a player up near the top.

About your last comment, that if we draft 3 rookies we won't get any better in wins and losses. You don't think we our young players will improve? I mean Booker took a massive step in year 3. I thought you felt we could maybe win 40% of our games and get over 30 wins. It feels like we have improved over last year despite losing what many thought was an all star caliber point guard. I think Booker will continue to improve and I think Jackson will likely show major improvement. It would be great if Warren could start hitting the 3, so I'm glad he has to shoot 500 of them a day.

It will be interesting to see what we do this summer. It will likely depend on how the draft plays out, but I expect we will sign a vet. I don't think we will be able to sign for or trade for any of those guys. I have no interest in Schroder. Not really that much in Vucevic (seems like at least half the Magic fans hate him)...and I agree with you that those RFA's will be matched. I think George goes to LA or maybe OKC and Boogie stays in NO. I'm not sure about DeAndre Jordan.

I think Blake IS LAC (it doesn't seem often that a max guy who has signed his 3rd contract with the team that drafted him is traded)...and Lillard IS Portland. I'd be pretty surprised if either were moved or McCollum, but maybe we can give Napier an offer sheet.

Interesting point about Kawhi not being happy even though he's on a 3 seed and Giannis devastated that Kidd is fired...and they are 7 seed.

Then you have a guy like Kemba, who just was an all star for the first time, and the team is struggling outside of the playoffs, and there are trade rumors and says he would be devastated to be traded, and has basically been that team's star and the city has really embraced him, etc. To me, Booker feels more like that type of guy. I think he likes being the face of the franchise and the guy and being so embraced by the fans and community. He'd likely lose a lot of that if he was traded to a team with a couple of other stars.

I feel if healthy, (including Knight) we could definitely improve. Chriss was starting to show some progress finally, it turns out yoga and mediation isn't what made him breakout after the all-star game last year, maybe it was just good old fashion hard work and gym time. Jackson has been playing better, but I still am not sure if Chriss, Jackson, Bender would be anything more than role players on a 6th-8th seed. Maybe in 4 years they will be more prominent players but they have a lot of improving to do. I guess Jackson could improve a lot, I do like his corner 3, it seems to look good enough.

As far as Griffin, Lillard, Kemba go I feel they will want to win eventually. Griffin doesn't have a long career span IMO, since his game is predicated on his athleticism, so he would need to be moved for him to have a real shot at being a contender. I feel Lillard will eventually be traded or maybe McCollum, and I would hope it would be to the Suns since I enjoy watching them here in Portland. They really don't have the assets to make a big trade and they are hoping to get some internal development. I could see the Blazers potentially getting someone like Bazemore from the Hawks though, since they really need a solid wing player.

Vucevic I am actually not really interested in, but I think he would come cheap, and splitting minutes with Len as our defensive big may work out, but who knows. I'd prefer WCS if it came to a trade though.

[darealjuice]

We've got a pretty interesting opportunity this offseason if we see the right signs toward the end of the season. We can make a big time offer for a star player with some combination of prospect/draft picks/Dudley and Chandler's soon-to-expire contracts, still retain a good amount of the young prospects and future assets we have so we don't mortgage the future, and we'd easily be able to make space to sign another max contract player to pair with Booker and our trade target this Summer before we go for Booker's extension, all without even moving Brandon Knight's contract. Salaries would get interesting once we need to start paying our young guys, but fun to think about lol.

[Qwigglez]

Also, I don't think Lillard is really crying to be traded. He just wants to know the front office is trying to do everything they can do become a legit contender. The problem is, they signed a lot of guys last year because of what LMA did to them, they figured from now on they will just sign everyone. Anyway, the owner doesn't care about paying the luxury tax so I could see them making some trades to help other teams relieve cap space.

[NavLDO]

I don't know about that. He wasn't eligble for the designated player max because he was traded from the team that drafted him but he could still get the max that can be offered by a team that's holding his current contract. He can get the 5 year max with the higher raises that he can't get from the open market. Am I wrong on this?

I can't be sure, but I always thought that once you left the team that drafted you, you were no longer entitled to that super-sweet deal with the extra year. But hey, I'm far from a capologist, and only go by what I read in the media, who are wrong half the time.

But my point was, when I calculated it all out, there is almost no way for them Max Cousins, because they already have a Max on Jrue and AD. They also have 2 '8-digit' multi-year deals remaining on 2 players they will never be able to get rid of, IMO...Asik, at 32-YO next year, and Hill, who was injure this year AND isn't that good, and makes more than Warren.

Just those 4 deals puts them at like, $75M. If Cousins is given a Max at $30.3M, it would take them to over the Cap, and only like $17M to fill the other minimum of 8 spots, and one of those is Ajinca at $8.8M. They are pretty much screwed, IMO, unless someone knows something I don't with how the cap works.

I was a lot more across the old CBA but I'm learning about this CBA now. There's no reason why they can't afford him from a cap perspective. I don't think it's likely they'll go significantly over the LT like some of the top teams these days but I think they'll keep Cousins and fill the rest of the team using exceptions and vet mins. There is no hard cap in the NBA so teams can literally spend as much as they want. That's how teams like GSW can still afford a guy as good as Nick Young despite being well above the LT already. As long as they have roster spots and exceptions to use, they can do whatever they want essentially.

I mean, I understand the concept. It's not like the money machine stops printing money once you hit the Luxury Tax Limit, lol, but the point, and the way they 'make it sound' is that if you go over the Cap, you are assessed a 'Luxury Tax', but even that has a limit. If you go beyond the 'Luxury Tax' limit, then you incur some sort of other penalty, like naming your first born grandchild "David Stearn" or something,

So, I just read this on the NBA Cap FAQ page...

While this is true in theory, NBA teams in big markets nevertheless have been able to significantly outspend teams in small markets. For example, for the 2016-17 season (the final season under the previous CBA) the lowest team payroll was approximately $80.5 million1 and the highest was over $127.5 million (plus an additional $27.3 million in luxury tax).

So, like I said, if you are a billionaire, and packing your stadium every night, wouldn't you rather spend $155M, as opposed to 'sucking' and not filling your seats, spending $80M?

So, yeah, in theory, the Pels can sign him, if they so choose, and only incur this type of penalty...

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q18

I'm sorry, but if they want TRUE parity in this league, they need to go to a Hard Cap, or a situation where the penalty is much more severer, like losing draft picks.

The teams that go over the Luxury Tax limit, your 1st Rd pick goes to the team with the lowest records. So, say, the Pels and Warriors both went over next season, the Pels pick would go the the team 1st in the Lottery, since their pick is the most advantageous, and the Warriors pick would go to the team with the 2nd pick, because their pick is 'higher'. I bet THEN the teams would be more careful...that would also help to promote parity, by "taking from the rich and giving to the poor"

[NavLDO]

Jamal Murray is a SG who has mostly struggled shooting. He averages 2.6 apg and 2 to pg in his second year. He is just not a good passer. Westbrook averaged 8 apg and 3.3 to pg in his second year.

Murray was the 7th pick in a pretty bad draft after the top 1 or 2 picks. Murray wasn't even in the same ball park as a prospect as Doncic or Young. Young took an unranked team to one of the best teams in the country, is one of the best shooters in college history, and leads the nation in assists with double digit assists (or rather 9.8 at the moment), which is VERY rare in college. Doncic is the best european prospect ever.

Spoiler:

Murray went to the school that has the best recruits in the country and they were not even all that great that year relatively speaking, losing in the 2nd round of the tournament. It was Tyler Ulis, his teammate who won SEC player of the year over him.

Murray may be able to start at G alongside Harris but that's mostly because the offense runs through Jokic who averages 5 apg and Harris also averages 3.3.

Sorry, man, but you are having one of your hyperbolic moments again. He's not even close to being the best shooter...even this season.

http://cbbref.com/tiny/QL8Cg

And that's with a couple of qualifiers added like at least 11 PPG and 4 APG Guards.

He's great and deserves the attention he's getting, but I'd term it more as one of the highest rising prospects ever, and one of the most prolific scoring college PGs ever, but best shooters in college history?? Not really.

With a bit more research, context, and % of shots unassisted, range of 3s, difficulty of shot, etc, I think he is probably way up there. There was a great article written by Cole Zwicker about it in which he made some very impressive lists. His percentages have dipped a bit in conference play and with teams game planning specifically for him, but make no mistake, he's one of the best shooting prospects ever.

Your list obviously shows he technically isn't at the top of the best TS% list ever, particularly when some of the players on the list have numbers for 1 or 2 games, I still think if you were to really dig into the numbers, usage and look at the tape, it would be evident he is up there near the top.

From Cole Zwicker's article:

The following is a chart outlines the intersection of true shooting percentage greater than 60 percent and usage rate over 30 percent for drafted guards since 2001/02 (I created this database derived from DraftExpress which should be exhaustive) :

(see chart)

That’s an insane list to be on even in a limited sample, and all but one of those players (Curry as a sophomore) accomplished this in their senior season. Maintaining historical efficiency with an outlier usage rate as a freshman is incredibly promising,

Rendering this more impressive is Young is creating an obscene amount of his own offense and doing so with peak efficiency. Compare his self-created shooting on 2pt jumpers and 3pt jumpers to Lillard as a senior and McCollum’s junior and senior seasons:

Assisted Offense

(See chart)

We haven’t seen anything quite like this, at least over the last decade or so. And to reiterate, we’re talking about being in the same company as some of the best shooters (and the best shooter) of all time.

Perhaps the most promising indicator is at the foul line, where Young again finds a place among elite company:

Free Throw Percentage (Free Throw Attempts > 8 per game 40 Minutes Pace Adjusted) Guards Since 2001/02

(see chart)

https://www.thestepien.com/2017/12/11/can-trae-young-generational-shooter/

Now this was written before conference play so the sample size was smaller but being that he was in such impressive company, and that most of the seasons he compared to were some of the best college seasons by some of the best shooters in history when they were upperclassmen, or Curry as a sophomore, and the fact that he is a freshman, is impressive.

And it is very impressive how much more he creates his own shot than those others who were assisted far more often on their shots.

He obviously will have dropped some on those lists now, but I wouldn't really try and discount his elite shooting too much. He's jumped up and possibly cracked this top elite top 5 prospects primarily because of his shooting (it's certainly not his measurables or athleticism)..it has been so transcendent it took a team with largely the same cast on it from last year, when they were 11-20, to unranked before the season, to #4 in the country last week.

Fair enough, one can always find an article that takes an impressive player, and runs his play through a series of tests, etc., and say he's the best at something. But the fact his, when you take his numbers, compare them to other shooters from both past and present, his numbers, while impressive, just are not one of the best in history, UNLESS, you start adding qualifiers, which we've been down this road before, and of you add a bunch of qualifiers, then sure, but I'm just saying, I would term it differently, as I did, because he's plenty impressive enough to just say, he's one of the most prolific PGs in College Basketball History, which to me, says more than 'one of the best Shooters', anyway.

Because this, right here, says it all...

http://cbbref.com/tiny/HXvpI

PGs with at least 25 PPG, ranked by Assists.

[NavLDO]

I don't know about that. He wasn't eligble for the designated player max because he was traded from the team that drafted him but he could still get the max that can be offered by a team that's holding his current contract. He can get the 5 year max with the higher raises that he can't get from the open market. Am I wrong on this?

I can't be sure, but I always thought that once you left the team that drafted you, you were no longer entitled to that super-sweet deal with the extra year. But hey, I'm far from a capologist, and only go by what I read in the media, who are wrong half the time.

But my point was, when I calculated it all out, there is almost no way for them Max Cousins, because they already have a Max on Jrue and AD. They also have 2 '8-digit' multi-year deals remaining on 2 players they will never be able to get rid of, IMO...Asik, at 32-YO next year, and Hill, who was injure this year AND isn't that good, and makes more than Warren.

Just those 4 deals puts them at like, $75M. If Cousins is given a Max at $30.3M, it would take them to over the Cap, and only like $17M to fill the other minimum of 8 spots, and one of those is Ajinca at $8.8M. They are pretty much screwed, IMO, unless someone knows something I don't with how the cap works.

If you have a player's bird rights, you can sign them for five years with 8% raises. Other teams can max out at 4 years and lesser raises (5%). They did create a designated super max you can earn if you stay with the team that drafted you, but that is dependent on certain factors (making all nba, etc) and you can sign those players you drafted up to like 35% of the cap.

But by trading for Cousins, the Pelicans did acquire his "Bird Rights", which allows New Orleans to give the big man a potential five-year extension worth $179 million this offseason and tie him to the franchise through the 2022-23 season.

But the big man could also opt to sign a shorter extension with the Pelicans in order to maximize his potential contract earnings and make up for some of the money he lost after getting traded by Sacramento.

Cousins is only two years away from being eligible for the maximum contract afforded to players that have been in the league for 10 years or longer, which would put him in the position to sign a five-year deal worth up $229 million in the summer of 2020.

http://www.nola.com/pelicans/index.ssf/2017/02/demarcus_cousins_trade_to_new.html

About the cap...you can always go over the cap to re-sign your own free agents. There is no hard cap..they call it a soft cap...that's why they have the luxury tax. The cap is like $99 million and the luxury tax starts at like $113 million. But they can go over the luxury tax if they want. My guess is they would for a season or two until some of those other contracts expire. I doubt they would have traded for him if they were not planning on giving him the max.

Here is more on contracts:

Max salaries fall into three major categories. In the simplest scenario, players with 0-6 years of experience are eligible for 25 percent of the salary cap, 7-9 years at 30 percent and 10 years (or over) of years in the league brings that number up to 35 percent. Players who sign under “Bird rights” are eligible for 8 percent annual raises and ones without them for 5 percent (up from 7.5 and 4.5 percent in the previous cap). Bird rights can get quite nuanced, but in most cases this is the choice between signing with your own team or another. Bird rights are also the difference between being available for a five- or four-year deal.

http://hoopshype.com/2017/05/13/hoopshype-explains-how-do-maximum-contracts-work/

The best argument for him leaving might be that he may want to just to a 1 year deal so he can get to that 10 year mark where h can sign a deal that starts at 35% of the cap in 2020.

If he is just signing that 1 year deal than it would be the same max number wherever he goes (but the only team that could exceed the salary cap to sign it to him is New Orleans)...so that leaves only a handful of teams with the cap space...Dallas, Chicago, LA and a few others and whoever could clear the cap space by trading players.

Thanks...yeah, I found some of that info, but some of it is stuff I didn't find. So the Pels own his Bird rights?? That's also confusing, trying to figure out when teams actually 'earn' a player's Bird rights, because it's not always just because they have them on the team.

[NavLDO]

OK...so they can go above the $123M Luxury Tax Cap? I would assume the penalty has to be pretty harsh.

So, what can the Pels do that other teams can't? Because only the Kings were allowed to give him 5 years, and the Max is based upon Cap numbers, so what additional 'benefits' can the Pels give him? And if so, it's going to be even worse, because they ARE going to hit that Limit for Luxury Tax spending. I assumed that was a 'hard cap', and the money between the Cap and the Luxury Tax was grey area teams could use to pay extra, but then also pay a penalty, but you are saying they can go above the Luxury Tax limit?

To me, then what's the point of even having a 'Cap' if you can just keep spending anyway. It's like the Lamborghini owner who doesn't really care if he get's a Parking Ticket for parking in a Handicap Zone; OK, whoop-it-dee-do...they just pay the money, which amounts to like a quarter for people like you and me.

The penalty to go over is harsher than it used to be, but with the extra tv money, most teams are likely making a nice profit so paying some tax to keep stars is likely more palatable. Look at the team payrolls....there are 3 teams well over $130 million and 8 teams over $120 million http://hoopshype.com/salaries/

The penalty is a lot harsher than it used to be...
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/2017/07/06/nba-signing-day-brings-salary-cap-luxury-tax-questionsss/103486828/

Q: Are there penalties for exceeding the cap?

A: Yes, there are penalties. And they can be severe, depending on how much a team goes over the cap and how often. Teams pay a luxury tax this year if they exceed $119 million. It starts with $1.50 for every $1 they are over, and rises at various levels from there if they soar $5 million or more past the tax. But that starts at $2.50 for every $1 if a team is a "repeater," having been a taxpayer for the previous three seasons

So for the Pelicans, they really need to shed just 1mil in salary to be under the luxury tax this year, I'm not sure if they paid the luxury tax last year, but if they sign Boogie this off-season to a max deal, then the following season, they will be sitting at $123mil. They could likely trade someone like Darius Miller along with a pick so they are not in the luxury tax this year, and then possibly avoid the repeat offender tax too in the future.

The Warriors and Cavs are paying $137mil, which means they are $18mil over the luxury tax so they have to pay 3.25 times the amount they are over. I believe teams that are over the luxury tax have to pay the teams that are under, so just with the Warriors and Cavs alone, they are going to be paying close to $110mil, and currently there are 8 teams over. Though again, I could see teams that are on the cusps, such as the Blazers, Clippers, and Pelicans move a contract to avoid paying.

But don't you see? If these teams are 'ok' with paying $137M, do they really care about paying an additional Tax?? No, they don't. Which is why I likened it to the Lamborghini owner parking in a Handicap spot...if they can afford a Lamborghini, do you think they care about paying a few hundred $ fee for breaking the law?? No. However, TOW AWAY their precious Lamborghini, and that changes his whole perception about breaking the law.

Which is why I'd proposed the Draft Pick scenario a couple posts up. THAT would, again, promote the parity we all want by either FORCING teams to stay under the Luxury Tax limit, and oh hey, actually pay a Tax if they go over Cap, and are in the 'Luxury Tax'...I don't understand what the difference is between the Cap and Luxury Tax then...Do team pay any 'tax' after they go over the $99M Cap, but below the Luxury Tax limit of $113? They should...otherwise, what the heck is the purpose of the Cap Limit? That is uselss, IMO, if teams don't get penalized at all for going over the Cap.

[kennydorglas]

Dame is a guy worth advancing our #timeline.
Kemba's not.

[lilfishi22]

I can't be sure, but I always thought that once you left the team that drafted you, you were no longer entitled to that super-sweet deal with the extra year. But hey, I'm far from a capologist, and only go by what I read in the media, who are wrong half the time.

But my point was, when I calculated it all out, there is almost no way for them Max Cousins, because they already have a Max on Jrue and AD. They also have 2 '8-digit' multi-year deals remaining on 2 players they will never be able to get rid of, IMO...Asik, at 32-YO next year, and Hill, who was injure this year AND isn't that good, and makes more than Warren.

Just those 4 deals puts them at like, $75M. If Cousins is given a Max at $30.3M, it would take them to over the Cap, and only like $17M to fill the other minimum of 8 spots, and one of those is Ajinca at $8.8M. They are pretty much screwed, IMO, unless someone knows something I don't with how the cap works.

I was a lot more across the old CBA but I'm learning about this CBA now. There's no reason why they can't afford him from a cap perspective. I don't think it's likely they'll go significantly over the LT like some of the top teams these days but I think they'll keep Cousins and fill the rest of the team using exceptions and vet mins. There is no hard cap in the NBA so teams can literally spend as much as they want. That's how teams like GSW can still afford a guy as good as Nick Young despite being well above the LT already. As long as they have roster spots and exceptions to use, they can do whatever they want essentially.

I mean, I understand the concept. It's not like the money machine stops printing money once you hit the Luxury Tax Limit, lol, but the point, and the way they 'make it sound' is that if you go over the Cap, you are assessed a 'Luxury Tax', but even that has a limit. If you go beyond the 'Luxury Tax' limit, then you incur some sort of other penalty, like naming your first born grandchild "David Stearn" or something,

So, I just read this on the NBA Cap FAQ page...

While this is true in theory, NBA teams in big markets nevertheless have been able to significantly outspend teams in small markets. For example, for the 2016-17 season (the final season under the previous CBA) the lowest team payroll was approximately $80.5 million1 and the highest was over $127.5 million (plus an additional $27.3 million in luxury tax).

So, like I said, if you are a billionaire, and packing your stadium every night, wouldn't you rather spend $155M, as opposed to 'sucking' and not filling your seats, spending $80M?

So, yeah, in theory, the Pels can sign him, if they so choose, and only incur this type of penalty...

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q18

I'm sorry, but if they want TRUE parity in this league, they need to go to a Hard Cap, or a situation where the penalty is much more severer, like losing draft picks.

The teams that go over the Luxury Tax limit, your 1st Rd pick goes to the team with the lowest records. So, say, the Pels and Warriors both went over next season, the Pels pick would go the the team 1st in the Lottery, since their pick is the most advantageous, and the Warriors pick would go to the team with the 2nd pick, because their pick is 'higher'. I bet THEN the teams would be more careful...that would also help to promote parity, by "taking from the rich and giving to the poor"

You're telling me. I've been for a hard cap for a long time. I'm not sure about other American sports but in Australia, we get salary cap scandals every couple of years in the Rugby where teams over spend the hard cap via "incentives" or back door deals and it's like a huge thing. It's good for competition because it levels the playing field but it's not good financially. As I explained before, rich teams or teams with rich owners don't want to be limited in how they spend. They see it as, oh I have money so I should put on the most competitive team I can buy and you shouldn't stop me form doing it. Then poor teams/small market teams are out there probably wanting more level competition from an ability to sign FA standpoint but then if they get the hard cap, they won't get the $10-15m in "tax returns" from the LT from the LT paying teams. So small-mid sized teams STFU, take that free money and put on the best product on the floor they can.

As much as we dislike it, there's no real financial incentive to install a hard cap.

Your idea about taking picks from the rich and giving to the poor sounds good in principle but it's also what they already do essentially. Rich teams are generally those who are at or near the top of the league (unless you're just badly managed like BKN a couple yrs ago) and likely have crappy picks anyway so they usually just trade it for a player that can contribute now. At the same time, teams at the bottom of the league would be incentivised to "tank" to be a bad team and get a top lotto pick AND now a pick from one of these LT paying teams. Guaranteed these teams paying top dollar for a championship calibre roster don't give a **** about a late 1st round pick lol

[BobbieL]

We've got a pretty interesting opportunity this offseason if we see the right signs toward the end of the season. We can make a big time offer for a star player with some combination of prospect/draft picks/Dudley and Chandler's soon-to-expire contracts, still retain a good amount of the young prospects and future assets we have so we don't mortgage the future, and we'd easily be able to make space to sign another max contract player to pair with Booker and our trade target this Summer before we go for Booker's extension, all without even moving Brandon Knight's contract. Salaries would get interesting once we need to start paying our young guys, but fun to think about lol.

I agree about the Suns having expiring contracts to possibly get a player this summer

It is why -- now I did suggest Hill/ZBo for Monroe/Knight - but at worst, using Monroes contract for cap space is not a bad way to go

Suns need to be patient - there are players rumbling out there

And I agree - Lillard is worth it - Kemba is not

[batsmasher]

For a deadline that's supposed to be pretty tepid there's a few yappers around the league at the moment.

[bigfoot]

I was a lot more across the old CBA but I'm learning about this CBA now. There's no reason why they can't afford him from a cap perspective. I don't think it's likely they'll go significantly over the LT like some of the top teams these days but I think they'll keep Cousins and fill the rest of the team using exceptions and vet mins. There is no hard cap in the NBA so teams can literally spend as much as they want. That's how teams like GSW can still afford a guy as good as Nick Young despite being well above the LT already. As long as they have roster spots and exceptions to use, they can do whatever they want essentially.

I mean, I understand the concept. It's not like the money machine stops printing money once you hit the Luxury Tax Limit, lol, but the point, and the way they 'make it sound' is that if you go over the Cap, you are assessed a 'Luxury Tax', but even that has a limit. If you go beyond the 'Luxury Tax' limit, then you incur some sort of other penalty, like naming your first born grandchild "David Stearn" or something,

So, I just read this on the NBA Cap FAQ page...

While this is true in theory, NBA teams in big markets nevertheless have been able to significantly outspend teams in small markets. For example, for the 2016-17 season (the final season under the previous CBA) the lowest team payroll was approximately $80.5 million1 and the highest was over $127.5 million (plus an additional $27.3 million in luxury tax).

So, like I said, if you are a billionaire, and packing your stadium every night, wouldn't you rather spend $155M, as opposed to 'sucking' and not filling your seats, spending $80M?

So, yeah, in theory, the Pels can sign him, if they so choose, and only incur this type of penalty...

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q18

I'm sorry, but if they want TRUE parity in this league, they need to go to a Hard Cap, or a situation where the penalty is much more severer, like losing draft picks.

The teams that go over the Luxury Tax limit, your 1st Rd pick goes to the team with the lowest records. So, say, the Pels and Warriors both went over next season, the Pels pick would go the the team 1st in the Lottery, since their pick is the most advantageous, and the Warriors pick would go to the team with the 2nd pick, because their pick is 'higher'. I bet THEN the teams would be more careful...that would also help to promote parity, by "taking from the rich and giving to the poor"

You're telling me. I've been for a hard cap for a long time. I'm not sure about other American sports but in Australia, we get salary cap scandals every couple of years in the Rugby where teams over spend the hard cap via "incentives" or back door deals and it's like a huge thing. It's good for competition because it levels the playing field but it's not good financially. As I explained before, rich teams or teams with rich owners don't want to be limited in how they spend. They see it as, oh I have money so I should put on the most competitive team I can buy and you shouldn't stop me form doing it. Then poor teams/small market teams are out there probably wanting more level competition from an ability to sign FA standpoint but then if they get the hard cap, they won't get the $10-15m in "tax returns" from the LT from the LT paying teams. So small-mid sized teams STFU, take that free money and put on the best product on the floor they can.

As much as we dislike it, there's no real financial incentive to install a hard cap.

Your idea about taking picks from the rich and giving to the poor sounds good in principle but it's also what they already do essentially. Rich teams are generally those who are at or near the top of the league (unless you're just badly managed like BKN a couple yrs ago) and likely have crappy picks anyway so they usually just trade it for a player that can contribute now. At the same time, teams at the bottom of the league would be incentivised to "tank" to be a bad team and get a top lotto pick AND now a pick from one of these LT paying teams. Guaranteed these teams paying top dollar for a championship calibre roster don't give a **** about a late 1st round pick lol

Instead of taking away draft picks for over the cap teams, adjusting the win percentage for playoff seeding would be better. So a team that overspends to win might fall from a first seed to a lower seed. They lose home game advantage and possibly funds from extra home games in a seven game series. Would certainly make it more interesting.

[bigfoot]

For a deadline that's supposed to be pretty tepid there's a few yappers around the league at the moment.

The deadline is moved up this year too. Usually falls after the all-star break ... now it's Feb 8th. We have just about two weeks left for trades,

[Bjorpa]

Dame is a guy worth advancing our #timeline.
Kemba's not.

What about Dame and Love?

Possible?

Lillard
Booker
Jackson
Love
Len

We'd probably have to give up Warren or Jackson, Bender and Chriss plus picks to get it done.

[BobbieL]

Dame is a guy worth advancing our #timeline.
Kemba's not.

What about Dame and Love?

Possible?

Lillard
Booker
Jackson
Love
Len

We'd probably have to give up Warren or Jackson, Bender and Chriss plus picks to get it done.

I know some in the past have said they wouldn't want Love but I would try for the guy. I think Lillard is going to be tougher. But Love might be gettable. Not sure the price but probably Bender or Chriss; taking back Shumpert, Miami picks and other stuff

Lillard - well that will cost the Suns pick this year plus Warren

[Bjorpa]

Dame is a guy worth advancing our #timeline.
Kemba's not.

What about Dame and Love?

Possible?

Lillard
Booker
Jackson
Love
Len

We'd probably have to give up Warren or Jackson, Bender and Chriss plus picks to get it done.

I know some in the past have said they wouldn't want Love but I would try for the guy. I think Lillard is going to be tougher. But Love might be gettable. Not sure the price but probably Bender or Chriss; taking back Shumpert, Miami picks and other stuff

Lillard - well that will cost the Suns pick this year plus Warren

Love was a top 10- 20 guy in the League before Cleveland. If that guy hasn't been destroyed it's worth a shot.

I'm a bit sceptical of Booker, Love and Lillard as a core 3 though, as none of them are good defenders.