Season Speculation, Trade Ideas & Discussion Pt. 5

[BobbieL]

What about Dame and Love?

Possible?

Lillard
Booker
Jackson
Love
Len

We'd probably have to give up Warren or Jackson, Bender and Chriss plus picks to get it done.

I know some in the past have said they wouldn't want Love but I would try for the guy. I think Lillard is going to be tougher. But Love might be gettable. Not sure the price but probably Bender or Chriss; taking back Shumpert, Miami picks and other stuff

Lillard - well that will cost the Suns pick this year plus Warren

Love was a top 10- 20 guy in the League before Cleveland. If that guy hasn't been destroyed it's worth a shot.

I'm a bit sceptical of Booker, Love and Lillard as a core 3 though, as none of them are good defenders.

agreed. I think Love will be less costly than Lillard to get

Cleveland needs to do something and it seems Love might be the scapegoat

Lillard might just have wanted to see the direction of the team - rumors are they asked about Deandre Jordan.

Its pretty hard with the CAvs - what would they want. I get they probably want the Suns to take Shumpert. I get they would probably want Monroe as an expiring deal. Chriss or Bender. Miamis pick and another pick.

If the Twolves want Chandler for a push to the playoffs (and I wouldn't mind this deal without Love, clears up cap space)

MIN: Chandler

Cleveland: Monroe, Aldrich, Bjelica, Chriss - Miami pick and the Suns first rounder in 2020

Phoenix: Love and Shumpert

This clears a lot of cap space for the Cavaliers, gets them a younger piece in Chriss and first round picks. I would like to keep Warren - he can score the ball without having the ball. Not sure where the Defense would come from with this team but is what it is.

[Sunsfan12]

I’d go after Lillard and Love as long as we could get both. Just getting one to me feels like a move to mediocrity. If we can’t get both I’d rather see how the Kawhi situation unfolds. He is younger and is as star on both ends of the court. Reported today that the tension between him and Spurs organization is “serious”.

[bwgood77]

Spoiler:

With a bit more research, context, and % of shots unassisted, range of 3s, difficulty of shot, etc, I think he is probably way up there. There was a great article written by Cole Zwicker about it in which he made some very impressive lists. His percentages have dipped a bit in conference play and with teams game planning specifically for him, but make no mistake, he's one of the best shooting prospects ever.

Your list obviously shows he technically isn't at the top of the best TS% list ever, particularly when some of the players on the list have numbers for 1 or 2 games, I still think if you were to really dig into the numbers, usage and look at the tape, it would be evident he is up there near the top.

From Cole Zwicker's article:

The following is a chart outlines the intersection of true shooting percentage greater than 60 percent and usage rate over 30 percent for drafted guards since 2001/02 (I created this database derived from DraftExpress which should be exhaustive) :

(see chart)

That’s an insane list to be on even in a limited sample, and all but one of those players (Curry as a sophomore) accomplished this in their senior season. Maintaining historical efficiency with an outlier usage rate as a freshman is incredibly promising,

Rendering this more impressive is Young is creating an obscene amount of his own offense and doing so with peak efficiency. Compare his self-created shooting on 2pt jumpers and 3pt jumpers to Lillard as a senior and McCollum’s junior and senior seasons:

Assisted Offense

(See chart)

We haven’t seen anything quite like this, at least over the last decade or so. And to reiterate, we’re talking about being in the same company as some of the best shooters (and the best shooter) of all time.

Perhaps the most promising indicator is at the foul line, where Young again finds a place among elite company:

Free Throw Percentage (Free Throw Attempts > 8 per game 40 Minutes Pace Adjusted) Guards Since 2001/02

(see chart)

https://www.thestepien.com/2017/12/11/can-trae-young-generational-shooter/

Now this was written before conference play so the sample size was smaller but being that he was in such impressive company, and that most of the seasons he compared to were some of the best college seasons by some of the best shooters in history when they were upperclassmen, or Curry as a sophomore, and the fact that he is a freshman, is impressive.

And it is very impressive how much more he creates his own shot than those others who were assisted far more often on their shots.

He obviously will have dropped some on those lists now, but I wouldn't really try and discount his elite shooting too much. He's jumped up and possibly cracked this top elite top 5 prospects primarily because of his shooting (it's certainly not his measurables or athleticism)..it has been so transcendent it took a team with largely the same cast on it from last year, when they were 11-20, to unranked before the season, to #4 in the country last week.

Fair enough, one can always find an article that takes an impressive player, and runs his play through a series of tests, etc., and say he's the best at something. But the fact his, when you take his numbers, compare them to other shooters from both past and present, his numbers, while impressive, just are not one of the best in history, UNLESS, you start adding qualifiers, which we've been down this road before, and of you add a bunch of qualifiers, then sure, but I'm just saying, I would term it differently, as I did, because he's plenty impressive enough to just say, he's one of the most prolific PGs in College Basketball History, which to me, says more than 'one of the best Shooters', anyway.

Because this, right here, says it all...

http://cbbref.com/tiny/HXvpI

PGs with at least 25 PPG, ranked by Assists.

I've read numerous items from scouts who do more contextual studies watching film, etc, saying similar things, but I'm not going to take a long time to have some drawn out debate with you because you may not think he's a particularly good shooter. Here is more...

Trae Young early on in his freshman season is doing things that college basketball fans rarely see ... Through Oklahoma’s first ten games, he averaged nearly 30 points and nine assists per game, which is unheard of for any player let alone a freshman ... Young has also yet to score fewer than 22 points since the season opener ... Young is just the fourth high-major freshman guard in seven years to record a usage rate higher than 30 percent ... Two of those players, [Player: D’Angelo Russell] and Markelle Fultz, were top-two draft picks ...

The first thing that jumps out about Young is his seemingly limitless shooting range ... Young is a threat to score from anywhere on the court once he crosses half court and can effortlessly knock down shots beyond the NBA three-point line ...

He may be the best shooter in college basketball since Stephen Curry played at Davidson......

What separates Young from other great shooters is that, like Curry, he has the ability to knock down shots from distance off a variety of dribble moves and not just off the catch or off of simple one-dribble pull ups ...

He has a quick, compact release with minimal wasted motion that allows him to get his shot off even in tight space ... Young’s jumper unlocks numerous other options offensively for him ... Although he is not the most explosive athlete, the threat of his jumper forces defenders to guard him way out on the perimeter, making it easier for him to get by his man and into the paint ... Young has shown the ability to create his own shot from inside the arc with a solid handle ... He has a great floater from the mid range area as well that he can score with consistently when he is not able to get all the way to the rim ... Young’s ability to operate out of the pick and roll is very advanced for a player of his age

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/trae-young

[BobbieL]

I’d go after Lillard and Love as long as we could get both. Just getting one to me feels like a move to mediocrity. If we can’t get both I’d rather see how the Kawhi situation unfolds. He is younger and is as star on both ends of the court. Reported today that the tension between him and Spurs organization is “serious”.

Well yes, he would be the guy to get but that will be costly. But for that guy - everything except Booker and the Suns pick this year (well top 5 protected) is on the table

[DirtyDez]

I’d go after Lillard and Love as long as we could get both. Just getting one to me feels like a move to mediocrity. If we can’t get both I’d rather see how the Kawhi situation unfolds. He is younger and is as star on both ends of the court. Reported today that the tension between him and Spurs organization is “serious”.

Well yes, he would be the guy to get but that will be costly. But for that guy - everything except Booker and the Suns pick this year (well top 5 protected) is on the table

Everything on the table except Booker and our pick? So the table is empty?

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

If we really wanted Love, we should make an offer this summer. I'm personally not that interested at this point, but I suppose if the price is right.

[BobbieL]

I’d go after Lillard and Love as long as we could get both. Just getting one to me feels like a move to mediocrity. If we can’t get both I’d rather see how the Kawhi situation unfolds. He is younger and is as star on both ends of the court. Reported today that the tension between him and Spurs organization is “serious”.

Well yes, he would be the guy to get but that will be costly. But for that guy - everything except Booker and the Suns pick this year (well top 5 protected) is on the table

Everything on the table except Booker and our pick? So the table is empty?

I am not doing Mike Ditka for Ricky Williams kind of all for one

But just stating for Kawhi Leonard compared to Kevin Love - I am more amenable to moving Jackson, Warren. With Love, I think the Suns would need Jackson and Warren - each with a skill set that brings something with Love.

[bwgood77]

Thanks...yeah, I found some of that info, but some of it is stuff I didn't find. So the Pels own his Bird rights?? That's also confusing, trying to figure out when teams actually 'earn' a player's Bird rights, because it's not always just because they have them on the team.

Some of the Bird rights stuff is not real clear, but it seems like they are earned after three years on a contract with the same team and transfer to a new team he is traded to. However I know that guys like Okafor and Len would not have their Bird rights transferred perhaps because playing on the QO is essentially a new one year contact and not the last year of a five year contract...since they had entered restricted free agency the year before, and "signed" a QO deal.

There is/was also an early bird exception where players can/could earn Bird rights after two years.

Perhaps the most well-known of the NBA's salary cap exceptions is the Larry Bird exception, so named because the Boston Celtics were the first team permitted to exceed the salary cap to re-sign one of their own players (in that case, Larry Bird). Free agents who qualify for this exception are called "qualifying veteran free agents" or "Bird Free Agents" in the CBA, and this exception falls under the terms of the Veteran Free Agent exception.

In essence, the Larry Bird exception allows teams to exceed the salary cap to re-sign their own free agents, at an amount up to the maximum salary. To qualify as a Bird free agent, a player must have played three seasons without being waived or changing teams as a free agent.

Players claimed off waivers are not eligible for the full Bird exception, but may qualify for the early Bird exception. Prior to an arbitrator ruling in June 2012, all players that were waived and changed teams lost their Bird rights.[41][42] This means a player can obtain "Bird rights" by playing under three one-year contracts, a single contract of at least three years, or any combination thereof. It also means that when a player is traded, his Bird rights are traded with him, and his new team can use the Bird exception to re-sign him.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_salary_cap

So the fact that Bird rights are not even earned until after three years on a contract with the same team, it's gotta be rare where a player on a max deal would want to be traded prior to playing three years for a team, or the Bird rights haven't been earned yet. That's why many of the star players that get traded do so when on five year deal but are in their 4th year and have said they will test FA when they become a FA.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

Well yes, he would be the guy to get but that will be costly. But for that guy - everything except Booker and the Suns pick this year (well top 5 protected) is on the table

Everything on the table except Booker and our pick? So the table is empty?

I am not doing Mike Ditka for Ricky Williams kind of all for one

But just stating for Kawhi Leonard compared to Kevin Love - I am more amenable to moving Jackson, Warren. With Love, I think the Suns would need Jackson and Warren - each with a skill set that brings something with Love.

Most of these guys will become available at more and more reasonable prices as time goes on (note that Kawhi is of course not available in any case). I expect our young guys to continue to improve and become more valuable during that same period. As we're not trying to contend right now, I don't see any reason to be very eager about these sorts of opportunities.

[WeekapaugGroove]

If we really wanted Love, we should make an offer this summer. I'm personally not that interested at this point, but I suppose if the price is right.

I'm not opposed to Love but I'm not in love with the idea either. I will say if you do that move you need to send out Chriss or Bender (probably to a third team with a win now piece to the Cavs). I have no desire to play Love at C with your young PF's and no desire to bury one of those guys on the bench.


Off topic but they NEED to stop starting Ulis at PG. He's just too damn small to start and other teams straight up hunt him out there. Shoot for his own good they need to stop this experiment. Play him against back ups and see if he could maybe stick in that role. I hope I'm wrong but right now he looks like a fringe NBA player and no better than a 3rd emergency PG.

[bwgood77]

Spoiler:

I was a lot more across the old CBA but I'm learning about this CBA now. There's no reason why they can't afford him from a cap perspective. I don't think it's likely they'll go significantly over the LT like some of the top teams these days but I think they'll keep Cousins and fill the rest of the team using exceptions and vet mins. There is no hard cap in the NBA so teams can literally spend as much as they want. That's how teams like GSW can still afford a guy as good as Nick Young despite being well above the LT already. As long as they have roster spots and exceptions to use, they can do whatever they want essentially.

I mean, I understand the concept. It's not like the money machine stops printing money once you hit the Luxury Tax Limit, lol, but the point, and the way they 'make it sound' is that if you go over the Cap, you are assessed a 'Luxury Tax', but even that has a limit. If you go beyond the 'Luxury Tax' limit, then you incur some sort of other penalty, like naming your first born grandchild "David Stearn" or something,

So, I just read this on the NBA Cap FAQ page...

While this is true in theory, NBA teams in big markets nevertheless have been able to significantly outspend teams in small markets. For example, for the 2016-17 season (the final season under the previous CBA) the lowest team payroll was approximately $80.5 million1 and the highest was over $127.5 million (plus an additional $27.3 million in luxury tax).

So, like I said, if you are a billionaire, and packing your stadium every night, wouldn't you rather spend $155M, as opposed to 'sucking' and not filling your seats, spending $80M?

So, yeah, in theory, the Pels can sign him, if they so choose, and only incur this type of penalty...

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q18

I'm sorry, but if they want TRUE parity in this league, they need to go to a Hard Cap, or a situation where the penalty is much more severer, like losing draft picks.

The teams that go over the Luxury Tax limit, your 1st Rd pick goes to the team with the lowest records. So, say, the Pels and Warriors both went over next season, the Pels pick would go the the team 1st in the Lottery, since their pick is the most advantageous, and the Warriors pick would go to the team with the 2nd pick, because their pick is 'higher'. I bet THEN the teams would be more careful...that would also help to promote parity, by "taking from the rich and giving to the poor"

You're telling me. I've been for a hard cap for a long time. I'm not sure about other American sports but in Australia, we get salary cap scandals every couple of years in the Rugby where teams over spend the hard cap via "incentives" or back door deals and it's like a huge thing. It's good for competition because it levels the playing field but it's not good financially. As I explained before, rich teams or teams with rich owners don't want to be limited in how they spend. They see it as, oh I have money so I should put on the most competitive team I can buy and you shouldn't stop me form doing it. Then poor teams/small market teams are out there probably wanting more level competition from an ability to sign FA standpoint but then if they get the hard cap, they won't get the $10-15m in "tax returns" from the LT from the LT paying teams. So small-mid sized teams STFU, take that free money and put on the best product on the floor they can.

As much as we dislike it, there's no real financial incentive to install a hard cap.

Your idea about taking picks from the rich and giving to the poor sounds good in principle but it's also what they already do essentially. Rich teams are generally those who are at or near the top of the league (unless you're just badly managed like BKN a couple yrs ago) and likely have crappy picks anyway so they usually just trade it for a player that can contribute now. At the same time, teams at the bottom of the league would be incentivised to "tank" to be a bad team and get a top lotto pick AND now a pick from one of these LT paying teams. Guaranteed these teams paying top dollar for a championship calibre roster don't give a **** about a late 1st round pick lol

I've never liked soft caps or no caps and also never liked guaranteed contracts. The NFL has a hard cap and much more parity and fans of every team are more vested every year because they feel they have a chance. You often have teams going from worst to first and/or have many new playoff teams each year.

MLB has no cap and I'm not even sure they have contractual limits so it's the worst because the rich owners can outspend everyone else and usually almost always be good and the smaller markets have a MUCH tougher time ever building a contender.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

Off topic but they NEED to stop starting Ulis at PG. He's just too damn small to start and other teams straight up hunt him out there. Shoot for his own good they need to stop this experiment. Play him against back ups and see if he could maybe stick in that role. I hope I'm wrong but right now he looks like a fringe NBA player and no better than a 3rd emergency PG.

This is the biggest thing for us right now - Ulis is handicapping this team to a fairly extreme degree. Simply moving on from him will increase our win totals fairly significantly. My confidence in our ability to do that is a big reason for my general optimism about this team going forward, relative to our current performance.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Off topic but they NEED to stop starting Ulis at PG. He's just too damn small to start and other teams straight up hunt him out there. Shoot for his own good they need to stop this experiment. Play him against back ups and see if he could maybe stick in that role. I hope I'm wrong but right now he looks like a fringe NBA player and no better than a 3rd emergency PG.

This is the biggest thing for us right now - Ulis is handicapping this team to a fairly extreme degree. Simply moving on from him will increase our win totals fairly significantly. My confidence in our ability to do that is a big reason for my general optimism about this team going forward, relative to our current performance.

It's ridiculous. Especially when they let Booker run some point with Tyler on the floor; at that point they are basically playing 4 or 5 since Ulis is shooting a sweet 25% from 3.

I really didn't think I would see anyone play worse than Knight last year but along comes Tyler this season like 'hold my beer'.

[BobbieL]

If we really wanted Love, we should make an offer this summer. I'm personally not that interested at this point, but I suppose if the price is right.

I'm not opposed to Love but I'm not in love with the idea either. I will say if you do that move you need to send out Chriss or Bender (probably to a third team with a win now piece to the Cavs). I have no desire to play Love at C with your young PF's and no desire to bury one of those guys on the bench.


Off topic but they NEED to stop starting Ulis at PG. He's just too damn small to start and other teams straight up hunt him out there. Shoot for his own good they need to stop this experiment. Play him against back ups and see if he could maybe stick in that role. I hope I'm wrong but right now he looks like a fringe NBA player and no better than a 3rd emergency PG.

I am with you on Ulis. I called him a JJ Barea type last year. Always will be a defensive matchup problem. Will give you a good game every so often but too small to be a regular

[WeekapaugGroove]

I hate making blanket statement but I'm just done with mini little PG's. Hell even if they are good like IT they are fools gold because once you run into good teams in the playoffs that game plan for you they can be picked on over and over again.

[bwgood77]

Dame is a guy worth advancing our #timeline.
Kemba's not.

What about Dame and Love?

Possible?

Lillard
Booker
Jackson
Love
Len

We'd probably have to give up Warren or Jackson, Bender and Chriss plus picks to get it done.

If you read the article about Dame, it doesn't sound like he really wants to be traded.

Lillard, who will turn 28 on July 15, requested the meeting in part to reaffirm his commitment to the only professional franchise he has suited up for, but also to gain assurances that the organization was just as devoted to expeditiously crafting a title-contending team, sources said....

...They also discussed players to target. The New York Times' Marc Stein recently reported that the Trail Blazers are one of the teams trying to engage in trade talks with the LA Clippers for big man DeAndre Jordan, but the Clippers haven't had any serious offers...

....Lillard desperately yearns to bring a championship to Portland, which is why he inquired about the organization's plan of attack to accelerate the process. He has four years remaining on a deal that owes him $115 million.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/22185302/portland-trail-blazers-damian-lillard-meets-owner-paul-allen-team-direction

[Qwigglez]

I have a very hard time seeing the Blazers trade Lillard. First off, they are still 7th in the West, so even if they started tanking now, they won't have the strongest tank, maybe they'd fall to 8th or 9th in the draft standings. Secondly, they have no blue chip prospects on their team. They thought Vonleh was going to make an impact on the team, and right now he's not even in the rotation. They drafted Zach Collins, who is suppose to be a long term project, but he doesn't look to be anything more than even an average role player. Nurkic could be their future since he's only 23.
I have a better time believing he'd be available, perhaps after the playoffs, if they get destroyed in the first round again he could be made available during the draft. He'd likely cost our pick (top 6 pick), and the Bucks pick, but then we'd have to match salary. If they took back Knight and Dudley I'd do the deal without losing any sleep knowing we still have a ton of cap space to sign a free agent. I'm not sure how much of a better team we are than the Blazers with Lillard, I guess it depends how much progress Bender, Jackson, and Chriss make.

Kevin Love on the other hand, is having his best season with the Cavs. I could see them trading him if Lebron goes elsewhere, but not until then. I don't really want him to be honest though.

I think if DeAndre Jordan actually leaves the Clippers this off-season the Clippers have no choice but to rebuild because they'd have $87mil still on the books, with $21mil going to often injured Danilo Gallinari. BW mentioned that Harrell is a good fill, but dude is only 6'8, plus once they give Lou Williams a contract they won't be able to offer anyone else one after that except using exceptions. Lou Williams could also just leave. I would trade assets for Griffin though despite his contract, mostly because I feel he is a smart player (besides the double dribble from last night). Booker-Griffin pick and roll would be devastating, and I think those two names would be able to attract other players over any other player we could potentially trade for.

Oh here's a fun article that I thought every Suns fan would get a nice laugh at.
https://clutchpoints.com/nba-trade-deadline-5-crazy-trades-shake-association-2018/

[WeekapaugGroove]

With all the talk we've had here about when to start the 'win now' phase the Dame situation is interesting. Portland went rebuild after losing LMA but ended up better quicker than expected. So in the summer of 2016 they spent on win now pieces and locked up some of their own vets. They are still alright but now Dame is wondering how do we get better.

IMO it's really less about the timing of the 'win now' move but more about getting it right. If you get it wrong with big contracts it's actually more harmful than staying too young because at least with young guys there's still the hope they might improve and you still have some bullets in your trade gun.

Now to me the real question for the Suns is if McD is the right guy to be making the 'win now' moves. His drafting is debatable but I don't think it's debatable that his veteran acquisitions have been a complete failure (now in fairness he's hasn't had a bunch of these but the Knight deal is one of the worst in franchise history and Chandler was a pretty foolish signing).

[bwgood77]

Oh here's a fun article that I thought every Suns fan would get a nice laugh at.
https://clutchpoints.com/nba-trade-deadline-5-crazy-trades-shake-association-2018/

That's a great one.

Even the other ones not involving our players. The Jazz trade Gobert and get back Tony Parker, Patty Mills and Danny Green?

Clips trade Blake, Jordan and Lou for Love and crap?

The Hornets trade Kemba, and attach a fairly bad contract in Marvin Williams but take a worse one back in Jackson (who is also a worse PG than Kemba).

The Cousins one isn't that bad I guess.

[bwgood77]

LeBron congratulating himself before he reaches an accomplishment...



Click to read what he wrote next to pic.