Owly wrote:.
On Melo vs Brand......
You'd mentioned the statistical edge to Brand, and cited career rate metrics (PER, WS/48, and BPM all referenced, iirc) for both rs and playoffs. Few comments I’d add to a statistical comparison like this….
First, let’s again not overlook these are rate metrics, and thus mpg applies. Melo (thru ‘17) averaged basically 10% more mpg than career Brand in the rs (36.2 to 33.0). Not a massive difference, but in terms of “value added over replacement level
per game”, it certainly narrows the gap considerably (if placing equal value on each of the three rate metrics).
In the playoffs, Melo’s minutes edge is a rather whopping 39.1 to 28.6. So there again in value added over replacement level
per game, that may bring it pretty close to a wash.
Worth noting that for Brand, these career numbers span slightly more years and rs games (though fewer ps games), though.
The other thing about Brand’s career numbers (for the rs), is that I struggle with how much relevance to attach to the numbers for some years that go into those figures, because they came for such pitiful teams. I don’t know if I’m alluding to some kind of “empty stats” type of argument, but I do have some concerns regarding his apparent lift (or lack thereof) in some seasons.
The term “lift” more or less is the equivalent of “impact”, and some of the most used impact metrics (namely: RAPM) do favor Brand by a small but clear margin. Melo’s right in the vicinity though [Brand’s non-scaled RAPM peak was +3.7, Melo’s was +3.0; Brand’s best 10 years averaged (not weighted for minutes, fwiw) is +2.04, Melo’s is +1.365], which may be relevant when acknowledging that RAPM is an imperfect stat (in that it doesn’t measure what it professes to measure as accurately as [for example] PER measures what it sets out to measure). I’m not saying I consider PER a superior metric; because some of the statistical inputs for PER are kinda meh/garbage……..but those garbage inputs are absolutely tied to the players production and not influenced by line-up noise, colinearity issues, etc (as is the case with RAPM).
RAPM is also a function of fit, utilization, and having complimentary pieces in place. Clyde Frazier has commented on the lack of a relevant playmaker at the PG position for most of Melo’s career; and interestingly, those two [mostly] full seasons played alongside Chauncey Billups happen to be the highest and 4th-highest RAPM’s of Melo’s career, despite both being slightly injury-hampered years for him. Maybe that’s coincidence, but then again maybe it’s not.
For these reasons (in addition to pure curiosity), I’ll sometimes [when I have the time to compile it] combine RAPM with simple WOWY and before/after studies. In these types of studies, fwiw, Melo comes off looking a little more impressive than Brand. I’ll start with the before/after overview of Brand…..
Before/After with the Bulls‘99 Bulls (before Brand): 13-37 (.260), -8.58 SRS
‘00 Bulls (add rookies Brand and Artest, also Fred Hoiberg [though injured] and aging Hersey Hawkins; lost Brent Barry and even-more-aging Ron Harper; ship Kukoc out about a third of the way thru the season): 17-65 (.207), -9.23 SRS
‘01 Bulls (add Brad Miller, Ron Mercer, and rookie Marcus Fizer; Hoiberg is healthy; other more minor roster changes): 15-67 (.183), -9.09 SRS
‘02 Bulls (Brand is traded away for rookie Tyson Chandler and Brian Skinner; obtained rookies Eddie Curry and Trenton Hassell; also big mid-season trades--->trade away Mercer, Artest, Brad Miller, and Kevin Ollie for Jalen Rose, Travis Best, Norm Richardson): 21-61 (.256), -8.52 SRS
^^^He’s just a rookie, and their backcourt does get worse, but it’s still a touch concerning that the Bulls actually get marginally worse on his arrival (it's kinda hard to get worse from -8.58 SRS, too). With the additions that come in ‘01, Brand and Artest being more experienced, and Hoiberg being healthy, it’s further concerning that they
still get no better (and still worse than they’d been in ‘99).
And though there are multiple changes (so it’s difficult to tease out individual responsibility), there’s a potential trend emerging as the Bulls
improve marginally after trading Brand to the Clips.
Before/After with the Clippers‘01 Clippers (before Brand): 31-51 (.378), -2.23 SRS
‘02 Clippers (with Brand, almost exact *same cast as ‘01 otherwise): 39-43 (.476), -0.09 SRS; *that cast included Darius Miles, Jeff McInnis, Eric Piatkowski, Corey Maggette, Michael Olowokandi, Lamar Odom, Quentin Richardson, Sean Rooks
‘03 Clippers (same cast as above, but add Andre Miller and Marko Jaric (and rookie Chris Wilcox fwiw)): 27-55 (.329), -3.45 SRS
‘04 Clippers (lose Olowokandi, Andre Miller, Odom, Sean Rooks, Piatkowski, McInnis; add Eddie House, Bobby Simmons, and rookie Chris Kaman): 28-54 (.341), -3.74 SRS
‘05 Clippers (largely same cast as ‘04, except add rookie Quinton Ross; Kaman improves in 2nd season): 37-45 (.451), -0.47 SRS
‘06 Clippers (add 36-yr old Sam Cassell, Cutino Mobley, Shaun Livingston somewhat healthy, Kaman improves more; lose House, Simmons, Maggette mostly injured): 47-35 (.573), +1.75 SRS
‘07 Clippers (same cast as ‘06, except Cassell injury-hampered; and add Tim Thomas): 40-42 (.488), -0.07 SRS
‘08 Clippers (Cassell further declining and misses even more games, Kaman misses games; add Brevin Knight and rookie Al Thornton; Brand misses basically whole season with injury): 23-59 (.280), -6.56 SRS
‘09 Clippers (Brand, Maggette, Cassell all gone; Tim Thomas misses year with injury, Kaman misses many games; add Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Camby, Zach Randolph): 19-63 (.232), -8.46 SRS
^^^^The Clips do seem to improve a small-moderate amount on his arrival (though perhaps somewhat less than would be expected with a true All-Star/borderline All-NBA level player) in ‘02. However, in ‘03 they then regress to slightly worse than they’d been in ‘01 (with no relevant roster loss; arguably upgraded, actually). A whole bunch of roster changes in ‘04, the result is no better than ‘03…….all of this (coming off what transpired in Chicago) is planting seeds of worry that maybe ‘02 was a fluke.
They do, however, then improve in ‘05 with some small roster additions/upgrades as mentioned above. Additions of an aging Cassell and other [mostly] backcourt pieces seem to help substantially in ‘06 (and I do consider his ‘06 peak to be arguably top 40 player peak of all-time). But then in '07 they slip right back to ‘02 or ‘05 standards----with Brand still being healthy (Cassell’s relative health shifting the needle as much as anything???).
It does somewhat help Brand’s case that the ‘08 Clippers fall off a cliff with him injured, though there are other losses/changes to potentially account for things too. In ‘09, they had so many losses (either trades or injuries), that it’s a pinch hard to assign credit, but they do get even worse.
Before/After with the Sixers‘08 Sixers (before Brand): 40-42 (.488), +0.18 SRS
‘09 Sixers (add Brand, though he misses much of year): 41-41 (.500), +0.16 SRS
‘10 Sixers (Brand healthy; lose Andre Miller, add rookie Jrue Holiday and about third of a season of aging Allen Iverson): 27-55 (.329), -3.93 SRS
‘11 Sixers (add Spencer Hawes and rookie Evan Turner): 41-41 (.500), +1.00 SRS
‘12 Sixers: 35-31 (.530), +3.59 SRS
‘13 Sixers (lose Brand, Iguodala, Lou Williams, Jodie Meeks): 34-48 (.415), -3.51 SRS
^^^^^There’s a fair bit of roster consistency (both before and during) his time in Philly. Brand misses so much of ‘09 that I’m not sure we can draw big conclusions from the lack of improvement. But then the big drop-off in ‘10 when he gets healthy (even in light of backcourt changes) is once again concerning. Other than adding Spencer Hawes and Turner, the only relevant “changes” in ‘11 are the improvements in sophomores Jrue Holiday and Jodie Meeks…...the Sixers get back as far as their pre-Brand quality. In ‘12 they manage to improve further, the best they’ve been since Allen Iverson’s time (though really no better than we should expect with a supporting cast of Iguodala, Lou Williams, Jrue Holiday, Thaddues Young, Evan Turner).
Huge drop in ‘13 is in his favor, though with the other losses, it’s again hard to dole out credit accurately.
Overall, there are more spots within the above where we’re left thinking “hmm…..wonder why they didn’t get any better” than there is of us going “Ah,
there’s the clear indication of lift”.
Not that before/after studies for Melo are without blemish. For example, Denver doesn’t seem to skip a beat after he leaves. And the Knicks have improved somewhat after his leaving (but they were also able to offload Derrick Rose---replaced by Tim Hardaway Jr---as well as add Enes Kanter, and Porzingis himself is a bit improved; also, this isn’t a prime Carmelo they lost).
On the flip-side, Denver showed massive improvement upon his arrival (but there were a lot of upgrades that year, as I’ll outline below; still…..certainly can’t be used against him):
‘03 (before Melo, but also before Andre Miller, Earl Boykins [PG was rotating door of Junior Harrington, Chris Whitney, and Shammond Williams], and Voshon Leonard [Vincent Yarbough was primary starting SG]; Marcus Camby also misses 53 games): 17-65 (.207), -11.4 rORTG.
‘04 (gain Melo, also aforementioned Andre Miller, Earl Boykins, Voshon Leonard, and Jon Barry [much better and more stable backcourt]; Marcus Camby healthy; lose James Posey, though): 43-39 (.524), +1.0 rORTG
And New York showed clear improvement with the addition of Anthony (both immediately, and progressively over the next couple seasons).
Then there is within season WOWY, which also paints Melo more favorably……
Brand WOWY‘00: 17-64 (.210) with, 0-1 without
‘01: 15-59 (.203) with, 0-8 without
‘02: 38-42 (.475) with, 1-1 (.500) without
‘03: 22-40 (.355) with, 5-15 (.250) without
‘04: 22-47 (.319) with, 6-7 (.462) without
‘05: 37-44 (.457) with, 0-1 without
‘06: 44-35 (.557) with, 3-0 without
‘07: 40-40 (.500) with, 0-2 without
‘08: 1-7 (.125) with (Brand just back from injury, though), 22-52 (.297) without
‘09: 13-16 (.448) with, 28-25 (.528) without
‘10: 27-49 (.355) with, 0-6 without
‘11: 41-40 (.506) with, 0-1 without
‘12: 32-28 (.533) with, 3-3 (.500) without
‘13: 35-37 (.486) with, 6-4 (.600) without
‘14: 34-39 (.466) with, 4-5 (.444) without
Anthony WOWY‘04: 43-39 (.524), +1.0 rORTG with
‘05: 47-28 (.627) with, 2-5 (.286) without
‘06: 44-36 (.550) with, 0-2 without
‘07: 37-28 (.569) with, 8-9 (.471) without
‘08: 47-30 (.610) with, 3-2 (.600) without
‘09: 45-21 (.682) with, 9-7 (.563) without
‘10: 45-24 (.652) with, 8-5 (.615) without
‘11: 43-34 (.558) with, 3-5 (.375) without
‘12: 29-26 (.527) with, 7-4 (.636) without
‘13: 47-20 (.701) with, 7-8 (.467) without
‘14: 35-42 (.455) with, 2-3 (.400) without
‘15: 10-30 (.250) -6.10 SRS with, 7-35 (.167) -12.72 SRS without
‘16: 32-40 (.444) with, 0-10 without
‘17: 29-45 (.392) with, 2-6 (.250) without
^^^^The with/without records are a little more consistently positive (and often by larger margins) in Anthony’s profile.
I also find ‘15 of interest: looking at this team that was only on pace for 13-14 wins with that unimaginably bad SRS (-12.72!), I cannot believe that any of the casts Brand had in Chicago were worse than that. But where Brand failed to pull them up to even 20 wins or an SRS better than -9, the ‘15 Knicks were at least on pace for 20-21 wins (with the -6.1 SRS) with Anthony (late prime/early post-prime version, too).
And ‘13 too is of interest: is a primary supporting cast of Raymond Felton, JR Smith, Tyson Chandler, 39-yr-old Jason Kidd, Steve Novak, and Pablo Prigioni (+ misc inconsistent minutes of others) really a so much better supporting cast than that of 36-yr-old Sam Cassell, Cuttino Mobley, Chris Kaman, Shaun Livingston, Quentin Ross (+ scattered minutes of Corey Maggette, Vladamir Radmanovic, Daniel Ewing, etc)?......Enough to account for +7 wins and +1.98 SRS added to an already good team?
All of this to say that I’m just as apprehensive about Brand’s box-based metrics as I am about Melo’s (at times, probably even more so).
Accolades are firmly in Anthony’s corner. If you read my criteria post, you know why I do place a small amount of value in that, though admittedly some of those reasons don’t apply specifically in a Anthony vs Brand comparison. But just putting it out there.
And lastly----and this is perhaps the biggest one----Brand just doesn’t have much of a playoff sample to speak of. Some of that is bad luck. When it comes to career context----when we’re saying, “yeah, but if he’d had better casts….”----I don’t take a hard-line rejection of this line of thinking (i.e. “if your aunt had a penis, she’d be your uncle”), but there’s only so far I’m willing to walk down that road of speculation (especially in light of the occasionally lacking perceived lift, as noted above).
This, combined with more awards/accolades----and in light of a similar(ish) statistical profile and a similar(ish) looking impact profile as outlined above----is why I’ve opted to go with Melo over Brand here. Is it a slam-dunk case for Melo over Brand? No, obv not; it’s paper-thin [wet paper, too].
Like I said, I’d be OK with Brand going here too. With edges being near-negligible (and highly subject to one’s value system), I’m really just taking a “gut feel” stand with one player over another so that I can cast a vote. But I don’t feel strongly that Melo > Brand.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
