2018 Brewers Discussion - Yelich Signing on Page 45

[Turk Nowitzki]

I wonder if we're going to make a run at Alex Cobb. Everyone initially had the Cubs as his landing spot but that's not happening if they sign Darvish. If we can pull off something like:

1) Trade Brinson + a couple 2nd or 3 tier prospects for Yelich (this is totally dependent on what the Brewers think of Brinson at this point, if Stearns is even considering moving him in a deal like this, to me it means they don't think he's going to live up to the hype.
2) Sign Cobb
3) Acquire another reasonably good starting pitcher using our OF surplus (Santana most likely as the centerpiece).

Maybe they wouldn't look to add two more starters but the point is that I think it has to be multiple moves to move the needle or do nothing and stand pat, pretty much what Kerb has been saying. No point in making one "win now" signing or trade if there aren't other moves lined up.

[DingleJerry]

Just sign Cobb if you think you're competing and save all the prospects those moves would cost. Your offensive lineup up is covered, hopefully add Walker though. Sure Yelich is better than Santana but not drastically and you get to keep the several prospects it would take. I think a Brinson/Phillips platoon will be just fine even though I'm not a huge 'Brinson is a superstar' guy. Thing not talked about much is they've pretty much ignored the bullpen, if they had plans on competing they probably should have done something there.

Starting pitching would be Anderson, Cobb, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff with Nelson coming back midseason to cover for whoever is hurt, struggling or if someone like Woodruff needs his innings limited. Assuming Anderson and Davies weren't flukes and Chacin/Woodruff just being your adequate 4.0 era type ok pitchers. That team can compete for the WC in the 85-90 win ballpark with only a 80ish mil payroll and keeping all your prospects.

[mlloyd10]

Brinson/Ortiz/Diaz for Yelich
Santana for kipnis/Salazar
Harrison/Woodruff/Burnes for Archer
Sign Arrieta 4/80

Yelich
Kipnis
Braun
Shaw
Thames
Pina
Phillips
Arcia

Arrieta
Archer
Salazar
Anderson
Davies

[ReasonablySober]

Like TH said today, the Brewers weren't willing to give Brinson up for a top of the rotation pitcher last summer.

Law knocked him for his durability in his ranking but still had this to say:

Brinson has huge upside and showed flashes of it again in 2017 -- when he was able to get on the field. A first-round pick by Texas in 2012, Brinson shows 70 defense in center and 80 raw power that is starting to show up more in games. What isn't showing up more in games is Brinson himself: He played in 97 games in the regular season, and the last time he played in at least 105 games was 2012.

He seems to have made progress in cutting down on his swing when he falls behind in the count, but he needs more reps to show if this is true and/or to develop further if it's an artifact of playing in a hitter's haven.

His glove would play right now in the majors, and even if he doesn't make more contact, he has the power to be a low-average, 25-homer regular. There's just so much potential here if he can get a full season or two of at-bats to continue his development.

Even if he's hitting for a low average you're still getting a guy who can play excellent defense in CF and probably knock in 25 HRs right now.

The Brewers have to get a monster haul if they're moving him.

[DingleJerry]

And to get Yelich it would take him and much more. Just play him and Phillips and keep your farm you've spent the last 3 years building.

[DingleJerry]

So now lots of people into Brinson + multiple other good prospects for the upgrade of Santana to Yelich who has never had an OPS higher than Santana had in his first full year. I'm sure Yelich's HRs would go up in MKE instead of MIA so can probably plan on 20-25 there now, but smaller OF could also hurt BA/OBP. And of course much better D though so I realize he's a better player. Remember that relative to trade value discussion before on how much really good players usually cost prospectwise.

I just can't get my head around clearing out a ton of prospects as being discussed in a Yelich trade and then more prospects in the Santana trade for a P when the Nats/Dodgers/Cubs are loaded. Seems too soon for me and too many plates in the air. Simplify and just buy pitching or if you're really ready to move prospects just trade them for a P. Both ways seem so much easier to accomplish than all this stuff.

[ReasonablySober]

So now lots of people into Brinson + multiple other good prospects for the upgrade of Santana to Yelich who has never had an OPS higher than Santana had in his first full year. I'm sure Yelich's HRs would go up in MKE instead of MIA so can probably plan on 20-25 there now, but smaller OF could also hurt BA/OBP. And of course much better D though so I realize he's a better player. Remember that relative to trade value discussion before on how much really good players usually cost prospectwise.

I just can't get my head around clearing out a ton of prospects as being discussed in a Yelich trade and then more prospects in the Santana trade for a P when the Nats/Dodgers/Cubs are loaded. Seems too soon for me and too many plates in the air. Simplify and just buy pitching or if you're really ready to move prospects just trade them for a P. Both ways seem so much easier to accomplish than all this stuff.

A Brinson headline package isn't clearing out a ton of prospects for Yelich. No one is clearing a ton of prospects in a Santana deal.

[mlloyd10]

Like TH said today, the Brewers weren't willing to give Brinson up for a top of the rotation pitcher last summer.

Law knocked him for his durability in his ranking but still had this to say:

Brinson has huge upside and showed flashes of it again in 2017 -- when he was able to get on the field. A first-round pick by Texas in 2012, Brinson shows 70 defense in center and 80 raw power that is starting to show up more in games. What isn't showing up more in games is Brinson himself: He played in 97 games in the regular season, and the last time he played in at least 105 games was 2012.

He seems to have made progress in cutting down on his swing when he falls behind in the count, but he needs more reps to show if this is true and/or to develop further if it's an artifact of playing in a hitter's haven.

His glove would play right now in the majors, and even if he doesn't make more contact, he has the power to be a low-average, 25-homer regular. There's just so much potential here if he can get a full season or two of at-bats to continue his development.

Even if he's hitting for a low average you're still getting a guy who can play excellent defense in CF and probably knock in 25 HRs right now.

The Brewers have to get a monster haul if they're moving him.

Gray or Quintana aren’t front of the line starters....besides TH doesn’t know ****

[DingleJerry]

So now lots of people into Brinson + multiple other good prospects for the upgrade of Santana to Yelich who has never had an OPS higher than Santana had in his first full year. I'm sure Yelich's HRs would go up in MKE instead of MIA so can probably plan on 20-25 there now, but smaller OF could also hurt BA/OBP. And of course much better D though so I realize he's a better player. Remember that relative to trade value discussion before on how much really good players usually cost prospectwise.

I just can't get my head around clearing out a ton of prospects as being discussed in a Yelich trade and then more prospects in the Santana trade for a P when the Nats/Dodgers/Cubs are loaded. Seems too soon for me and too many plates in the air. Simplify and just buy pitching or if you're really ready to move prospects just trade them for a P. Both ways seem so much easier to accomplish than all this stuff.

A Brinson headline package isn't clearing out a ton of prospects for Yelich. No one is clearing a ton of prospects in a Santana deal.

You don't think it would be at least 3 prospects? I'd guess 4 total. likely at least one of Ortiz/Woodruff/Burns. Unless we eat a horrible contract like Prado it could be less. And if you deal Santana for Archer/Salazar type it'll be Santana and 2-3 prospects, unless you eat a bad contract. This series of moves could cost them 5-6 prospects including the #1 guy and multiple starting pitcher prospects and you're still not going to be favored to make the playoffs. But if you're eating bad contracts to save prospect why not just simply sign pitching with that money. And then if you're also then going to sign Cain, again why not just take the money and sign a P.

[Kerb Hohl]

The bf.net guy is fairly convinced that the Brewers have the top offer in for Yelich.

[ReasonablySober]

No, I don't think it would take that much.

[ReasonablySober]

The Brewers are dealing from a position of strength in any OF deal. The Marlins have a guy who doesn't want to show up for FanFest.

[mlloyd10]

So now lots of people into Brinson + multiple other good prospects for the upgrade of Santana to Yelich who has never had an OPS higher than Santana had in his first full year. I'm sure Yelich's HRs would go up in MKE instead of MIA so can probably plan on 20-25 there now, but smaller OF could also hurt BA/OBP. And of course much better D though so I realize he's a better player. Remember that relative to trade value discussion before on how much really good players usually cost prospectwise.

I just can't get my head around clearing out a ton of prospects as being discussed in a Yelich trade and then more prospects in the Santana trade for a P when the Nats/Dodgers/Cubs are loaded. Seems too soon for me and too many plates in the air. Simplify and just buy pitching or if you're really ready to move prospects just trade them for a P. Both ways seem so much easier to accomplish than all this stuff.

A Brinson headline package isn't clearing out a ton of prospects for Yelich. No one is clearing a ton of prospects in a Santana deal.

You don't think it would be at least 3 prospects? I'd guess 4 total. likely at least one of Ortiz/Woodruff/Burns. Unless we eat a horrible contract like Prado it could be less. And if you deal Santana for Archer/Salazar type it'll be Santana and 2-3 prospects, unless you eat a bad contract. This series of moves could cost them 5-6 prospects including the #1 guy and multiple starting pitcher prospects and you're still not going to be favored to make the playoffs. But if you're eating bad contracts to save prospect why not just simply sign pitching with that money.

Yelich is a proven talent that we have 5 years control of

Santana has more value than Salazar based on health and the Indians need for a RH power bat

[mlloyd10]

No, I don't think it would take that much.

For who?

[DingleJerry]

We'll know soon enough, Yelich traded somewhere will probably happen before the end of the week and I'm pretty sure it'll take more than one top 30ish prospect.

[ReasonablySober]

No, I don't think it would take that much.

For who?

A Brinson headlined deal and some B or C assets would get you Yelich.

[DingleJerry]

A Brinson headline package isn't clearing out a ton of prospects for Yelich. No one is clearing a ton of prospects in a Santana deal.

You don't think it would be at least 3 prospects? I'd guess 4 total. likely at least one of Ortiz/Woodruff/Burns. Unless we eat a horrible contract like Prado it could be less. And if you deal Santana for Archer/Salazar type it'll be Santana and 2-3 prospects, unless you eat a bad contract. This series of moves could cost them 5-6 prospects including the #1 guy and multiple starting pitcher prospects and you're still not going to be favored to make the playoffs. But if you're eating bad contracts to save prospect why not just simply sign pitching with that money.

Yelich is a proven talent that we have 5 years control of

Santana has more value than Salazar based on health and the Indians need for a RH power bat

Santana had a higher OPS than Yelich last year in his first year and is also controlled for years.

I'd be very surprised if you could get Salazar straight up for Santana, and no way you'd get Archer straight up for him.

[DingleJerry]

No, I don't think it would take that much.

For who?

A Brinson headlined deal and some B or C assets would get you Yelich.

The insider guy said be prepared, it's gonna sting in regards to how much it'll cost.

[mlloyd10]

No, I don't think it would take that much.

For who?

A Brinson headlined deal and some B or C assets would get you Yelich.

Sticking with this- Brinson/Ortiz/Diaz for Yelich

But I’m afraid it might cost Burnes or Peralta too

[Turk Nowitzki]

The bf.net guy is fairly convinced that the Brewers have the top offer in for Yelich.

He was also asked how likely it is that this gets done and he said "95%"

He followed that up by saying that he knows what we would giving up and "it's gonna sting a bit"

Not sure how I feel about this at all. We'll see what this guy's sources are worth I guess.