2018 Brewers Discussion - Yelich Signing on Page 45

[Gianstoppable]

I dont really see how signing good players to 3-5 year deals is shortening our window. When exactly is our window to compete? Still 3 years away? Adding good players on reasonable contracts isnt a bad thing. I know what I proposed wont work because theres a 99% chance Braun doesnt move to 1st base, but it is fun to imagine how the lineup could look if he did and we added both Yelich and Cain and even if you were able to keep Domingo.

Cain - CF
Yelich - RF
Braun - 1B
Shaw - 3B
Santana - LF

Thats a really good top of a lineup

[DingleJerry]

It’s twirly and me vs. the world over there.

We've had our battles on here but you're basically me here over there. I don't know what I am over there to them as a comparison but Holy God are there some dumb people over there.

I'm with you guys. In a vacuum if we needed an OF the Yelich trade isn't terrible and I get it. But we don't need an OF and right now there's 3 teams just loaded that we'd be still clear dogs against. The fallacy I see in the whole thing is that some seem to think we're going to be able to trade Santana for a cost controlled good P and prospects when in reality it's going to be the other way around. So now we're not just giving up 3-4 guys for Yelich but Santana (controlled for 5 years) + 2 more prospects. And generally I'm not on board with giving Cain a bunch of money. I like the idea of a lineup next year with yelich/cain as good contact type guys, but 15-20 mil for Cain is just not worth it to me at age 31. I think you'd get good production from the rookies for free in CF and obviously good production from Santana for free in RF. Take all the assets and money and just get pitching with it if you're determined to do something this year.

Another fallacy there is 6 years of Brinson or 5 years of Yelich. Like we talked about yesterday, if that's all you gave up yea of course you do it. But it's going to be Brinson and a few more guys that we like, and at least one will be a starting P prospect which we should be hoarding.

Basically if you pull off all the dream scenarios being thrown around, you're still projected a mid 80s win team instead of low 80s like now. If just add a pitcher like Cobb you're more or less in the same win projection.

Long story short, the rebuild is working and three teams are just loaded right now. But Nats lose Harper this year. Cubs will soon have massive dead contracts in Lester and heyward and have depleted their farm. Give it another couple years then go all in.

Also, if we fancy ourselves contenders why did we punt on the bullpen? If you do all this stuff you're still sitting there with one good relief pitcher as of now and Hader however you use him. In other words, more consternation every 7th and 8th inning just like last year that will likely be your achilles heal.

[WeekapaugGroove]

On a very general sense I get why they would want Yelich. When building up a team you want to start stacking up core pieces. Yelich with his age, contract, and production looks like a guy who can be a core piece for the foreseeable future. So I get why you would be willing to deal a some prospects that might be core pieces for a more sure thing. And while I love a deep system at some point it does make sense to consolidate some assets because there's only so much room for these guys both on the 40 man and in the lineup. All that makes sense.

What confuses me is positionally I have some concerns. By all accounts they seem to want to build a good defensive team so Yelich should probably play LF. Wouldn't it be diminishing his value to play him in RF or CF? So would they move Braun back to RF or maybe 1B? This move would make a whole hell of a lot more sense if they had moved Braun last winter.

As far as the 'window' to compete thing I personally think it's dangerous to make team building decisions based on the belief the top teams will fall off at a certain point. With the way some of them can spend and just the random nature of baseball I always think you just need to worry about your own team with little regard for what other teams are at. There are always going to be some monsters in your way.

[Turk Nowitzki]

In a vacuum Yelich does make sense as a target. He checks off a ton of boxes pretty much any team is looking for (young, controllable on a club friendly deal through his prime, proven talent at the big league level). Hell, the only reason he is even available is because of the massive disfunction going on in Miami.

Having said that, it goes back to the point I and others have been making. Just Yelich doesn't do nearly enough to move the needle. So what's the plan after they trade a haul of prospects to get him? That's the question giving me pause.

[trwi7]

I dont really see how signing good players to 3-5 year deals is shortening our window. When exactly is our window to compete? Still 3 years away? Adding good players on reasonable contracts isnt a bad thing. I know what I proposed wont work because theres a 99% chance Braun doesnt move to 1st base, but it is fun to imagine how the lineup could look if he did and we added both Yelich and Cain and even if you were able to keep Domingo.

Cain - CF
Yelich - RF
Braun - 1B
Shaw - 3B
Santana - LF

Thats a really good top of a lineup

Because you're giving up several good prospects for Yelich and the Cain and Arrieta or Darvish deals are eventually going to turn to **** and now you're paying $40 million per year for a couple years of non-production while you've depleted the farm system and the guys that are on the team are getting more expensive through arbitration leaving you less payroll flexibility.

[Kerb Hohl]

I'm honestly OK with overpaying the free agents shorter-term. I'd spinzone myself into liking the offseason if it was only a Yelich trade plus some splashy free agent moves.

I just don't think it's going to catch the Cubs. And I really think the Yelich trade is going to sting in 2 or 3 years when it appears the Cubs are weakening and we're scrapping for reinforcements as well because we depleted our system.

[LUKE23]

If you believe in Brinson, why are you moving him (and likely one or two other good prospects) for a CF? We need to stay patient here, I by no means believe this team is a contender with Yelich. No way the rotation is anywhere near good enough. Rather just plug and play Brinson this year and see where we stand.

We also cannot afford to trade literally ANY of our pitching prospects for Yelich. I'm not saying we will, but if we do I'm going to be absolutely livid.

[LUKE23]

I dont really see how signing good players to 3-5 year deals is shortening our window. When exactly is our window to compete? Still 3 years away? Adding good players on reasonable contracts isnt a bad thing. I know what I proposed wont work because theres a 99% chance Braun doesnt move to 1st base, but it is fun to imagine how the lineup could look if he did and we added both Yelich and Cain and even if you were able to keep Domingo.

Cain - CF
Yelich - RF
Braun - 1B
Shaw - 3B
Santana - LF

Thats a really good top of a lineup

Depends on what we do with the rotation. Even if Nelson is back, they still need one near top of rotation guy and no drop off at all offensively as a team to be a playoff team. If we are going to trade prospects now, rather go after pitching than a CF, since we are stacked in the OF and law of averages says at least a couple of those guys will pan out. I'm terrified we are going to include pitching prospect (s) along with Brinson in a Yelich deal. We cannot afford to do that.

[Kerb Hohl]

If you believe in Brinson, why are you moving him (and likely one or two other good prospects) for a CF? We need to stay patient here, I by no means believe this team is a contender with Yelich. No way the rotation is anywhere near good enough. Rather just plug and play Brinson this year and see where we stand.

We also cannot afford to trade literally ANY of our pitching prospects for Yelich. I'm not saying we will, but if we do I'm going to be absolutely livid.

Even if Brinson brings more value as a defender, in a vacuum/made up trade of Brinson for Yelich - I'm absolutely making that trade.

The problem is that we're going to get taken to the cleaners on the remaining players involved in the deal.

[LUKE23]

Even if Brinson brings more value as a defender, in a vacuum/made up trade of Brinson for Yelich - I'm absolutely making that trade.

The problem is that we're going to get taken to the cleaners on the remaining players involved in the deal.

I can buy that.

[WeekapaugGroove]

If you believe in Brinson, why are you moving him (and likely one or two other good prospects) for a CF? We need to stay patient here, I by no means believe this team is a contender with Yelich. No way the rotation is anywhere near good enough. Rather just plug and play Brinson this year and see where we stand.

We also cannot afford to trade literally ANY of our pitching prospects for Yelich. I'm not saying we will, but if we do I'm going to be absolutely livid.

Maybe they don't believe in Brinson as much as the national perception of him. This is always the really hard part of judging prospects because all we can really go on is how the media ranks them but I'm sure internally the Brewers have their own rankings that probably don't align with the outside. I'm sure there are prospects where the national perception is much higher than the Brewers truly feel about a guy and in that case there is some opportunity to trade them and get value. Now it only matters what the Marlins feel about Brewer prospects not the national media but it's not out of the question the Brewers have talked to the Marlins and the guys the Marlins want the Brewers feel are overrated and they see an opportunity to cash in on that.

Oh and I'm with you I would hate to see guys like Burnes or Ortiz go out in this trade.

[DingleJerry]

Yea you'd be a fool to not do Brinson straight up for Yelich. it's the added pieces in that deal and likely subsequent moves that are the big questions.

Personally I'm not as high on Brinson as the general fan or rankings suggest, but I view a lot of it as a numbers game so once you start moving 3, 4, 5, 6 prospects it gets dicey.

[trwi7]

I'm honestly OK with overpaying the free agents shorter-term. I'd spinzone myself into liking the offseason if it was only a Yelich trade plus some splashy free agent moves.

I just don't think it's going to catch the Cubs. And I really think the Yelich trade is going to sting in 2 or 3 years when it appears the Cubs are weakening and we're scrapping for reinforcements as well because we depleted our system.

Honestly, this. I'd still completely disagree with it but if there was any season the stars have aligned and allowed us to actually be players for the top free agents, this is the year. We keep all of our prospects, use our payroll flexibility to stack up on free agents and then see how we do next year.

It makes no sense to trade for a guy like Yelich because again, he's not a natural CF, he was just the best option for the Marlins. He's obviously not replacing Braun, so that means it's Santana who goes and we've already been shopping him with less than desirable offers. So why not just keep the 3 WAR guy and your prospects instead of trading multiple top prospects for a 2 win upgrade or if you're that desperate for an outfielder for whatever reason, sign an actual good defensive one in Cain who also provides value with the bat and then you can keep your prospects for a trade for Archer or something.

[Gianstoppable]

It's great to say you have a nice farm system but like a lot of you guys have alluded to we don't have many 4-5 win type guys in our minors if any. We have a chance at a 4-5 win guy in Yelich that would probably cost Brinson, Diaz and Ortiz maybe more. I don't want to trade away any pitching if possible but I really don't the problem in asking what it would take to pry him away. Who knows maybe it's less than we think. I think if you have a chance at a good deal you take it but only if you're making another move to make the team a legit contender with a FA signing, just not Lance Lynn

[Kerb Hohl]

It's great to say you have a nice farm system but like a lot of you guys have alluded to we don't have many 4-5 win type guys in our minors if any. We have a chance at a 4-5 win guy in Yelich that would probably cost Brinson, Diaz and Ortiz maybe more. I don't want to trade away any pitching if possible but I really don't the problem in asking what it would take to pry him away. Who knows maybe it's less than we think. I think if you have a chance at a good deal you take it but only if you're making another move to make the team a legit contender with a FA signing, just not Lance Lynn

Well the guy that is starting this whole rumor thinks that a lot of teams that are loaded with prospects are involved, so the package to get Yelich will likely be painful. He said it himself.

[LUKE23]

It's great to say you have a nice farm system but like a lot of you guys have alluded to we don't have many 4-5 win type guys in our minors if any. We have a chance at a 4-5 win guy in Yelich that would probably cost Brinson, Diaz and Ortiz maybe more. I don't want to trade away any pitching if possible but I really don't the problem in asking what it would take to pry him away. Who knows maybe it's less than we think. I think if you have a chance at a good deal you take it but only if you're making another move to make the team a legit contender with a FA signing, just not Lance Lynn

The chances of it being "less than we think" are slim to none. If anything, people are going to be wide-eyed once they see what it costs.

[Gianstoppable]

It's great to say you have a nice farm system but like a lot of you guys have alluded to we don't have many 4-5 win type guys in our minors if any. We have a chance at a 4-5 win guy in Yelich that would probably cost Brinson, Diaz and Ortiz maybe more. I don't want to trade away any pitching if possible but I really don't the problem in asking what it would take to pry him away. Who knows maybe it's less than we think. I think if you have a chance at a good deal you take it but only if you're making another move to make the team a legit contender with a FA signing, just not Lance Lynn

Well the guy that is starting this whole rumor thinks that a lot of teams that are loaded with prospects are involved, so the package to get Yelich will likely be painful. He said it himself.

If that's the case it makes it easier to say no. Again, I'm not saying trade away the whole farm for Yelich. He's a great player but not a good defender or true CF but he would be a good fit on this team offensively. He's the exact type of hitter we need. I'd be very cool with just signing Cain. He costs a 2nd or 3rd rounder right?

[Kerb Hohl]

It's great to say you have a nice farm system but like a lot of you guys have alluded to we don't have many 4-5 win type guys in our minors if any. We have a chance at a 4-5 win guy in Yelich that would probably cost Brinson, Diaz and Ortiz maybe more. I don't want to trade away any pitching if possible but I really don't the problem in asking what it would take to pry him away. Who knows maybe it's less than we think. I think if you have a chance at a good deal you take it but only if you're making another move to make the team a legit contender with a FA signing, just not Lance Lynn

Well the guy that is starting this whole rumor thinks that a lot of teams that are loaded with prospects are involved, so the package to get Yelich will likely be painful. He said it himself.

If that's the case it makes it easier to say no. Again, I'm not saying trade away the whole farm for Yelich. He's a great player but not a good defender or true CF but he would be a good fit on this team offensively. He's the exact type of hitter we need. I'd be very cool with just signing Cain. He costs a 2nd or 3rd rounder right?

Yeah, but if they sign Cain, that means that Santana should probably be moved for prospects or controllable pitching.

[mlloyd10]

I'll say this again

Brinson/Ortiz/Diaz for Yelich
Santana for kipnis/Salazar
Harrison/Woodruff/Burnes for Archer
Sign Arrieta 4/80

Yelich
Thames
Braun
Shaw
Kipnis
Phillips
Pina
Arcia

Arrieta
Archer
Anderson
Salazer
Davies

That challenges the cubs

[LUKE23]

I'll say this again

Brinson/Ortiz/Diaz for Yelich
Santana for kipnis/Salazar
Harrison/Woodruff/Burnes for Archer
Sign Arrieta 4/80

Yelich
Thames
Braun
Shaw
Kipnis
Phillips
Pina
Arcia

Arrieta
Archer
Anderson
Salazer
Davies

That challenges the cubs

That completely empties the farm system of our high ceiling players. No way.