What is Devin Booker's Ceiling?

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Re: What is Devin Booker's Ceiling? 

Post#121 » by HoopsMalone » Fri Jan 26, 2018 3:10 am

The_Hater wrote:
HoopsMalone wrote:
The_Hater wrote:
He could be the worst defensive player in the league and he’s still not even close the 100th best player in the league like you claim.
.



That is 100% wholly inaccurate. I'm not interested in continuing this discussion with you until you approach the conversation with a basic analytical approach to the game.


I explained why this is the case analytically and you reply like a condescending jerk. Well done.



If he adds 2 points on offense and subtracts 2 points on defense he's a breakeven player. That puts you well outside the top 100. So when you say "he's not even close to the top 100" well yeah I guess you're right. He's not. But not in the direction you were talking about.
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Re: What is Devin Booker's Ceiling? 

Post#122 » by Mulhollanddrive » Fri Jan 26, 2018 3:14 am

Devin Booker has a 2 point higher O-Rating compared to Kobe Bryant at the same stage (seasons when they were 20 on opening night).

As far as D-Rating goes James Harden has had above league average D-Rating every season so it's as much about not being on a bad team as actual defense.
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Re: What is Devin Booker's Ceiling? 

Post#123 » by clyde21 » Fri Jan 26, 2018 3:29 am

DarkHawk wrote:
clyde21 wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:
What Cleveland picks? The Brooklyn one will probably be like the 8th pick and how do you dump contracts on Cleveland? They have nearly the biggest payroll in the league well over the cap.


The Brooklyn pick and the Cleveland pick + a Cedi Osman.

As for contracts, the Suns unload Chandler for Frye for instance since he's an expiring.

So, it'd be something like:

PHX gets: Brooklyn pick, Cleveland pick, Cedi Osman, Channing Frye
CLE gets: Devin Booker and Tyson Chandler.

I'd pull the trigger on this.


So much bad would come from that trade.
Phoenix would be banking on:

1. The player they get with the Nets pick is a future stud.
2. Free agents will accept that the franchise continues to not be able to make up its mind.
3. Fans not giving up on the team for giving away their franchise player for basically the hope in another lottery pick.

If Phoenix were to trade Booker right now, they would have to command a lot more. And if no team did it, the you deal with another 5 years of Booker which isn't a bad thing.


Well, it'll all depend on how you view the prospects in this class. For instance, I'm quite sold that guys like Doncic and Bagley are going to be really, really good, so it's easier for me to say yes on a trade like this.

However, if you have your doubts regarding the prospects and don't think they'll be what Booker is now/will become, then it's completely understandable.
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Re: RE: Re: What is Devin Booker's Ceiling? 

Post#124 » by bulliedog8 » Fri Jan 26, 2018 3:31 am

eyeatoma wrote:
bulliedog8 wrote:
eyeatoma wrote:
wait what?

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Where ever you would rank a rich mans prime dirk, thats where lauri will be. Gonna be fun to see.


Cool story bro


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Re: What is Devin Booker's Ceiling? 

Post#125 » by p0peye » Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:01 am

bwgood77 wrote:
p0peye wrote:Here's a list of players who had usage rate over 30%, with bad defense (DRTG >= 110) and not so good offense (ORTG<=110). Although you may find couple of All Stars and Kobe on that list, pay close attention to the seasons and the record of their respective teams in those seasons.

http://bkref.com/tiny/84TOr


That list has a bunch of people that only played a couple minutes a game. If you add the paremeter 20 mpg the list gets rid of all the guys who did it on an extremely small sample size and it's a better list. And if you look at it from TS%, Booker has the best. Check out who is at the bottom.

http://bkref.com/tiny/vQsYG

Booker will be a very good offense player...he's already really good. Could be great.

But it will come down to defense as to what kind of ceiling he can have and if he can be an all star caliber player. Even if he can play average defense it would make a big difference. Barring that he'd have to be an elite scorer and also be elite at making everyone around him better.


Yeah, that's a much better list. Lets further filter out to disregard players who are net neutral (110DRTG/110ORTG) and focus on players who have net negative effect like Booker (DRTG>=111, ORTG <=109) and we get this:

http://bkref.com/tiny/Pij0h

Top of the lottery was only place where these players lead their teams in those seasons.

Interestingly enough, there are 3 players (out of 9 in NBA history) on that list having historically high usage while being net negative this season: Devin Booker, Isaiah Thomas and Dennis Schroeder. Doesn't exactly spell success for Cavs, though but they might trade him as cap relief to someone.
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Re: What is Devin Booker's Ceiling? 

Post#126 » by thamadkant » Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:14 am

clyde21 wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:
clyde21 wrote:
Yes. If I can get out of this draft with Bagley and Doncic I'm doing it. I'm just not fully sold on Booker as that impactful of a player long term. It's a risk, but one I'm willing to take it.


What Cleveland picks? The Brooklyn one will probably be like the 8th pick and how do you dump contracts on Cleveland? They have nearly the biggest payroll in the league well over the cap.


The Brooklyn pick and the Cleveland pick + a Cedi Osman.

As for contracts, the Suns unload Chandler for Frye for instance since he's an expiring.

So, it'd be something like:

PHX gets: Brooklyn pick, Cleveland pick, Cedi Osman, Channing Frye
CLE gets: Devin Booker and Tyson Chandler.

I'd pull the trigger on this.




lol what?


So gamble on a rookie and trade a 24ppg 4apg 4rpg elite offensive weapon who's only 21 years old.....

Crazy...
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Re: What is Devin Booker's Ceiling? 

Post#127 » by Damkac » Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:18 am

HoopsMalone wrote:Marcus Smart is not a center. He really doesn't have a huge impact on the defensive side of the court.

Booker is also not a center so he also don't have huge impact on the defensive side of the court. So maybe his "terrible" defense don't hurt his team so much to deny everything he is doing on offense?
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Re: What is Devin Booker's Ceiling? 

Post#128 » by Young_Star11 » Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:24 am

Keep in mind he is only 21 years old and in his third year in the NBA.

Can he carry a team and become an MVP candidate in time, that is the question. Big time scorer
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Re: What is Devin Booker's Ceiling? 

Post#129 » by Qwigglez » Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:42 am

Booker has been in a mini slump lately which is to be expected when there is only one other player on the team that can create their own shot (Warren). He upped his efficiency this year while also being assisted on 2 Pt field goals 32% of the time, as opposed to the past two years where he was being assisted 45% and 33.3% of the time. Meanwhile him being assisted on 3 Pt field goals is down to 65% and the two years past was in the high 70's range. This to me means he is creating more shots for himself and adapting to more lockdown defense while still knocking down more shots.
If you put an actual team around Booker, he would be a much more efficient player. Also, anyone saying Booker's defense is horrendous hasn't been watching him this year at all. I'd say for now, he is likely still below average but he isn't as bad as last year. You can check out this article to see what he is doing differently. He is still growing as a player, so I expect him to get better on that side of the court too.
https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2018/1/11/16880928/small-change-big-improvement-devin-booker-defense
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Re: What is Devin Booker's Ceiling? 

Post#130 » by JB2 » Fri Jan 26, 2018 10:11 am

James Harden is his ceiling

Booker is a special scorer but I want to see him become an equally good playmaker.. he has the skills.
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Re: What is Devin Booker's Ceiling? 

Post#131 » by The_Hater » Fri Jan 26, 2018 12:14 pm

Damkac wrote:
HoopsMalone wrote:Marcus Smart is not a center. He really doesn't have a huge impact on the defensive side of the court.

Booker is also not a center so he also don't have huge impact on the defensive side of the court. So maybe his "terrible" defense don't hurt his team so much to deny everything he is doing on offense?


Too funny... can’t wait to see the analytical genius spin this one.
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Re: What is Devin Booker's Ceiling? 

Post#132 » by The-Power » Fri Jan 26, 2018 12:33 pm

p0peye wrote:Lets further filter out to disregard players who are net neutral (110DRTG/110ORTG) and focus on players who have net negative effect like Booker (DRTG>=111, ORTG <=109) and we get this:

[...]

Interestingly enough, there are 3 players (out of 9 in NBA history) on that list having historically high usage while being net negative this season:

It doesn't tell us whether a player has actually been a net negative on the court or not, though. Had the played with a couple of good defensive bigs, he would all off a sudden most certainly be a net positive according to the juxtaposition of individual ORTG and DRTG. Generally speaking, we should never look at bbref's ORTG/DRTG for any type of player analysis that goes beyond trying to measure efficiency from the boxscore.
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Re: What is Devin Booker's Ceiling? 

Post#133 » by p0peye » Fri Jan 26, 2018 1:10 pm

The-Power wrote:
p0peye wrote:Lets further filter out to disregard players who are net neutral (110DRTG/110ORTG) and focus on players who have net negative effect like Booker (DRTG>=111, ORTG <=109) and we get this:

[...]

Interestingly enough, there are 3 players (out of 9 in NBA history) on that list having historically high usage while being net negative this season:

It doesn't tell us whether a player has actually been a net negative on the court or not, though. Had the played with a couple of good defensive bigs, he would all off a sudden most certainly be a net positive according to the juxtaposition of individual ORTG and DRTG. Generally speaking, we should never look at bbref's ORTG/DRTG for any type of player analysis that goes beyond trying to measure efficiency from the boxscore.


True as it might be, that list and team records they helped achieve are pretty telling as what these players have accomplished throughout NBA history.


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Re: What is Devin Booker's Ceiling? 

Post#134 » by The-Power » Fri Jan 26, 2018 1:19 pm

p0peye wrote:
The-Power wrote:
p0peye wrote:Lets further filter out to disregard players who are net neutral (110DRTG/110ORTG) and focus on players who have net negative effect like Booker (DRTG>=111, ORTG <=109) and we get this:

[...]

Interestingly enough, there are 3 players (out of 9 in NBA history) on that list having historically high usage while being net negative this season:

It doesn't tell us whether a player has actually been a net negative on the court or not, though. Had the played with a couple of good defensive bigs, he would all off a sudden most certainly be a net positive according to the juxtaposition of individual ORTG and DRTG. Generally speaking, we should never look at bbref's ORTG/DRTG for any type of player analysis that goes beyond trying to measure efficiency from the boxscore.


True as it might be, that list and team records they helped achieve are pretty telling as what these players have accomplished throughout NBA history.

If it's not a valid approach, however, the list itself doesn't tell us anything.

Also, your criteria are random. You want to make sure the player is at least as bad as Booker in this metric, but you refer to players who are clearly worse as to what Booker's outlook is? This is completely arbitrary at best, and dishonest at worst.

Furthermore, Booker has the highest ORTG of all players. Due to the nature of the boxscore, ORTG does at least a somewhat decent job to display a player's individual offensive efficiency when he records a boxscore entry for an offensive possession.

DRTG, however, is largely impated by the overall team defense; not to mention that the boxscore is horrible at tracking relevant defensive events. While Booker hasn't been a good defender by any means, there are players just as bad or worse out there who have a lower individual DRTG simply because they play next to better defensive players or chase rebounds, blocks or steals without that leading to positive defensive impact. It's just not a useful stat.
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Re: What is Devin Booker's Ceiling? 

Post#135 » by Kerrsed » Fri Jan 26, 2018 4:48 pm

His ceiling is Kobe.

We dont call him "The Moca Mamba" for nothing! :lol:
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