'17-'18 POY discussion

[ardee]

Another 10 games and Russ will be back in the top 5 cor me

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[Nbafanatic]

I agree that Harden still has to prove himself in the playoffs, too much of a predictable game most of the time, in comparison with other greats of the same level, that's the very reason why I still choose prime Wade and prime Kobe above him, for instance. But the presence of CP3 alongside him can be a game changer this year. Harden now can be leveraged more as an off ball threat with great shooting. I still think Chris Paul is a superstar level player going 33 years old this year. What do you guys think about the Rockets with at least one superstar playmaker on the court at all times? Here are some numbers from the 17-0 run so far with Chris, Harden and Capela on the lineup:

1- @GSW - +1/ 119.6/118.6
2- @SUNS - +26/ 132.8/108.5
3- @GRIZ - +22/ 116.1/ 91.8
4- vsNUG - +30/ 125.1/95.1
5- vsNYK - +15/ 116.2/101.3
6- vsBKN - +14/ 117.6/103.5
7- vsIND - +21/ 120.1/98.7
8- @LAL - +23/ 113.7/ 91.7
9- @UTA - +11/ 115.6/104.2
10- @POR - +7/ 127.5/120.3
11- vsNOP - +7/ 127.0/120.2
12- vsCHO - +12/ 110.1/97.8
13- vsSAS - +15/ 123.6/108.6
14- vsJazz - +21/ 130.4/107.6
15- vsLAL - +6/ 128.7/123.5
16- vsMIN - +18/ 126.9/107.2
17 - vsGSW - +8/ 115.2/107.2


ORat: 121.54
DRat: 106.22
Net Rating: +15.32

PD: 15.11

This offensive rating would be the greatest of all time, and I still think the team can be better variety wise with more chemistry and more different plays down the stretch of games, still too many isos for Paul and Harden. Capela is having an all star level season so far, and the team has great role players all around. If the defense can improve a bit more, the Rockets can really be a threat to Golden State. I have Harden still a little ahead of Lebron-Durant-Curry right now, and CP3 in in my top 10 so far. He has an assist/tov ratio of more than 3, and has been shooting the 3 pointer at a 39% clip with seven attempts per game. The improved spacing around him with less workload really made wonders for his game.

[Lost92Bricks]

^ Thank you for at least mentioning Chris Paul. He is still one of the best players in the league.

[ardee]

I agree that Harden still has to prove himself in the playoffs, too much of a predictable game most of the time, in comparison with other greats of the same level, that's the very reason why I still choose prime Wade and prime Kobe above him, for instance. But the presence of CP3 alongside him can be a game changer this year. Harden now can be leveraged more as an off ball threat with great shooting. I still think Chris Paul is a superstar level player going 33 years old this year. What do you guys think about the Rockets with at least one superstar playmaker on the court at all times? Here are some numbers from the 17-0 run so far with Chris, Harden and Capela on the lineup:

1- @GSW - +1/ 119.6/118.6
2- @SUNS - +26/ 132.8/108.5
3- @GRIZ - +22/ 116.1/ 91.8
4- vsNUG - +30/ 125.1/95.1
5- vsNYK - +15/ 116.2/101.3
6- vsBKN - +14/ 117.6/103.5
7- vsIND - +21/ 120.1/98.7
8- @LAL - +23/ 113.7/ 91.7
9- @UTA - +11/ 115.6/104.2
10- @POR - +7/ 127.5/120.3
11- vsNOP - +7/ 127.0/120.2
12- vsCHO - +12/ 110.1/97.8
13- vsSAS - +15/ 123.6/108.6
14- vsJazz - +21/ 130.4/107.6
15- vsLAL - +6/ 128.7/123.5
16- vsMIN - +18/ 126.9/107.2
17 - vsGSW - +8/ 115.2/107.2


ORat: 121.54
DRat: 106.22
Net Rating: +15.32

PD: 15.11

This offensive rating would be the greatest of all time, and I still think the team can be better variety wise with more chemistry and more different plays down the stretch of games, still too many isos for Paul and Harden. Capela is having an all star level season so far, and the team has great role players all around. If the defense can improve a bit more, the Rockets can really be a threat to Golden State. I have Harden still a little ahead of Lebron-Durant-Curry right now, and CP3 in in my top 10 so far. He has an assist/tov ratio of more than 3, and has been shooting the 3 pointer at a 39% clip with seven attempts per game. The improved spacing around him with less workload really made wonders for his game.

I had no idea they were 17-0 with all 3. That's frightening to say the least.

I wonder if Paul and Harden hadn't been both injured thus far if the Rockets would be on track for 70 wins.

[Dr Spaceman]

All this Butler love has been unexpected to say the least. The guy is being outperformed statistically by his own teammate.

Ehh, I think you could say Towns has performed evenly with him box-score statistically, with Butler ahead in the +/- family and also the clear team leader.

Adds up to a clear edge to Butler for me.

I wanted to add that I think it's no small thing what Butler appears to have done to the team culture. I say "appears", because all of this is contingent. Butler's personality is strong and at times very harsh. Such things can go a bad way, and go there in a hurry. But at the moment, it seems like it's given KAT a kick in the ass he was ready to learn from.

If the mood and momentum remain strong the rest of the season, and I still see Butler's name at the top of things like the RPM leaderboard, quite honestly, I'll consider him a strong POY candidate even though I'm quite sure that I'm not going to think he's as good as LeBron or Curry. Just because culture transformation isn't something you can do every year doesn't mean the impact of the players spearheading it don't deserve credit during the season in question.

Just to piggy back off this quickly, to me this can’t be seen as a fluke. I get that this is something new for Butler, and to some degree people should be skeptical of any new development, but to me there’s a clear precedent for what Jimmy has done.

The Wolves made a big, BIG deal about acquiring Kevin Garnett in 2015. Garnett was really well past the point where he was an effective player, but the return to Minnesota was for far more than nostalgic reasons. They knew the big rebuild was happening, knew that was going to be the year they solidified their young core, and knew Kevin Garnett was the guy they wanted to help mould that core. In some ways it’s sort of a happy accident that the two ended up playing together, but remember at the time Wiggins was seen as the Wolves future. He was the #1 pick and the first member of the core. And yet Garnett seemed to devote his entire energy to mentoring KAT. Being there every day, calling him on the phone, reportedly pushing him in practice harder than he’d ever been pushed (http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/14172961/the-cruel-tutelage-kevin-garnett).

I’ll say this about the Wolves: they know KAT. Know him in a way I haven’t ever heard any other prospect discussed. They know him better than I know my girlfriend, maybe better than most people know their wives (probably hyperbole, maybe not ). They speak openly about his core personality traits in a way that other teams don’t do, and rather than them just being an open organization I think they’ve really taken the time to think through his personality and how they want him to develop. It’s fascinating stuff, and they’re currently the most interesting team in the league to read and learn about.

I don’t think it’s an accident they ended up with Butler and not, say, Paul George, Kyrie Irving, et al. Thibs knows Butler, and I think they saw Butler as a guy who lined up with what they wanted to do with Towns. I think Thibs is an awful communicator, but he’s a good coach and if he as a guy on the frontlines who will run through a wall for him, that’s how he wins a locker room.

The Butler thing as come as a surprise to a lot of people, but I think with hindsight and reading the tea leaves a bit, it becomes more obvious this was a calculated move.

[Dr Spaceman]

So... not to make too big a deal out of this, but has anyone been noticing Hardens defensive effort at the end of games? For some reason it’s been sticking out to me quite clearly this season, he’s been getting a TON of blocks in clutch situations. I still think he’s a massively flawed defensive player but... in high effort situations he’s been playing much better than I’ve ever remembered, and that’s quite notable to me.

[ardee]

Ehh, I think you could say Towns has performed evenly with him box-score statistically, with Butler ahead in the +/- family and also the clear team leader.

Adds up to a clear edge to Butler for me.

I wanted to add that I think it's no small thing what Butler appears to have done to the team culture. I say "appears", because all of this is contingent. Butler's personality is strong and at times very harsh. Such things can go a bad way, and go there in a hurry. But at the moment, it seems like it's given KAT a kick in the ass he was ready to learn from.

If the mood and momentum remain strong the rest of the season, and I still see Butler's name at the top of things like the RPM leaderboard, quite honestly, I'll consider him a strong POY candidate even though I'm quite sure that I'm not going to think he's as good as LeBron or Curry. Just because culture transformation isn't something you can do every year doesn't mean the impact of the players spearheading it don't deserve credit during the season in question.

I don’t think it’s an accident they ended up with Butler and not, say, Paul George, Kyrie Irving, et al. Thibs knows Butler, and I think they saw Butler as a guy who lined up with what they wanted to do with Towns. I think Thibs is an awful communicator, but he’s a good coach and if he as a guy on the frontlines who will run through a wall for him, that’s how he wins a locker room.

That aside I think Butler was clearly the best player available by trade as well...

[dhsilv2]

So... not to make too big a deal out of this, but has anyone been noticing Hardens defensive effort at the end of games? For some reason it’s been sticking out to me quite clearly this season, he’s been getting a TON of blocks in clutch situations. I still think he’s a massively flawed defensive player but... in high effort situations he’s been playing much better than I’ve ever remembered, and that’s quite notable to me.

Feels like Chris Paul has rubbed off on him, and the guy has and I don't know how to explain this. He has an ability to read the body movements of others and act on them at speeds that I've just never seen before. It is how he gets all those fouls. It makes sense he can apply it to defense.

That said I need to see more rockets games, keep missing them.

[E-Balla]

Ehh, I think you could say Towns has performed evenly with him box-score statistically, with Butler ahead in the +/- family and also the clear team leader.

Adds up to a clear edge to Butler for me.

I wanted to add that I think it's no small thing what Butler appears to have done to the team culture. I say "appears", because all of this is contingent. Butler's personality is strong and at times very harsh. Such things can go a bad way, and go there in a hurry. But at the moment, it seems like it's given KAT a kick in the ass he was ready to learn from.

If the mood and momentum remain strong the rest of the season, and I still see Butler's name at the top of things like the RPM leaderboard, quite honestly, I'll consider him a strong POY candidate even though I'm quite sure that I'm not going to think he's as good as LeBron or Curry. Just because culture transformation isn't something you can do every year doesn't mean the impact of the players spearheading it don't deserve credit during the season in question.

Just to piggy back off this quickly, to me this can’t be seen as a fluke. I get that this is something new for Butler, and to some degree people should be skeptical of any new development, but to me there’s a clear precedent for what Jimmy has done.

The Wolves made a big, BIG deal about acquiring Kevin Garnett in 2015. Garnett was really well past the point where he was an effective player, but the return to Minnesota was for far more than nostalgic reasons. They knew the big rebuild was happening, knew that was going to be the year they solidified their young core, and knew Kevin Garnett was the guy they wanted to help mould that core. In some ways it’s sort of a happy accident that the two ended up playing together, but remember at the time Wiggins was seen as the Wolves future. He was the #1 pick and the first member of the core. And yet Garnett seemed to devote his entire energy to mentoring KAT. Being there every day, calling him on the phone, reportedly pushing him in practice harder than he’d ever been pushed (http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/14172961/the-cruel-tutelage-kevin-garnett).

I’ll say this about the Wolves: they know KAT. Know him in a way I haven’t ever heard any other prospect discussed. They know him better than I know my girlfriend, maybe better than most people know their wives (probably hyperbole, maybe not ). They speak openly about his core personality traits in a way that other teams don’t do, and rather than them just being an open organization I think they’ve really taken the time to think through his personality and how they want him to develop. It’s fascinating stuff, and they’re currently the most interesting team in the league to read and learn about.

I don’t think it’s an accident they ended up with Butler and not, say, Paul George, Kyrie Irving, et al. Thibs knows Butler, and I think they saw Butler as a guy who lined up with what they wanted to do with Towns. I think Thibs is an awful communicator, but he’s a good coach and if he as a guy on the frontlines who will run through a wall for him, that’s how he wins a locker room.

The Butler thing as come as a surprise to a lot of people, but I think with hindsight and reading the tea leaves a bit, it becomes more obvious this was a calculated move.

I mean if you ask me it was obvious when it happened. A top 5ish player that's a proven hard worker and great leader for the low? Sign me up.

[RSCD3_]

I'll express my star player-oriented thoughts at this point.

- Whenever I see Curry at his best, I'm convinced he's a greater player than LeBron. Then something happens and Curry's star wanes in my mind until I feel silly thinking he could ever be in the same tier as LeBron. Deep down, I want to believe but I'll need to see Curry do it on the grandest stage before I seriously make that argument...again.

- That said from a POY perspective, it's quite possible Curry will top my list when all is said and done this year, or any future year, even if Durant wins the Finals MVP. Lots of things can happen, and frankly LeBron doesn't have a lot of margin for error given his team's less than ideal vibe.

- When I see Durant dominate on both ends of the floor, he really seems to be the best player in the world now, and on the same level as LeBron at his best. It remains fascinating that impact stats always seem to show him below both LeBron and Curry.

- I'm still a Harden fan, even though I get down on him sometimes. He's the closest thing to a local boy I got and I have a major BBIQ fetish (to say nothing of beards). It's been great seeing Harden take further steps forward. I'm really hoping that in the playoffs they look their best. I don't expect them to beat Golden State regardless, and frankly I'm not even rooting for that, but I don't think this team's should be a regular season mirage despite the fact that I totally get why people see them that way.

- I'm very curious to see what happens when Kawhi is back and 100%. Has Pop figured out how to use Aldridge the way he needs Aldridge to play, or has he just rented Aldridge to fill the alpha spot?

- My admiration for Jimmy Butler has increased. My evaluation of him as a player hasn't exactly improved, but the uncertainty range I had has condensed considerably and for the good. That intense personality of his clearly makes him something of a double edge sword, but the more I see from him, I'll take it, no reservations.

- OKC. I've been, what you might call, a foul weather Westbrook cynic. When times are good I talk less about him, when times are bad, I feel like I get my schadenfreude on too much. Trying to stop that, but obviously, things have been great, and my criticisms of Westbrook (to me at least) feel validated, again. But I still do think you can build a contending team around Westbrook, it's just that if he's ever going to truly lead an elite offense, I think it's going to have to be a thing where he's surrounded by great 3-point shooters, and when he isn't, his team's ceiling falls sharply.

- How 'bout Lou Freaking Williams? Can't imagine he'll be in my ballot consideration, but still, good for him.

- Pelican'ts. The good news is that Davis and Cousins are truly terrifying out there. The bad news is, if you've got twin towers, you're supposed to be good at defense. This is how it's been basically forever, and it's only more so now that the 3 dominates the game. Unless something massive changes there, this team isn't ever going to go anywhere serious. The sad part is that if I were NO, and Davis & Cousins wanted to both stay and play together, I don't think I could say no to that even if I see no signs that there defense will improve.

- Jokic. I can't pretend I'm not disappointed. I still think he's a worthy franchise player and deserves serious all-star consideration, but last year I thought he was the most exciting young player in the game after Embiid went down.

- Brad Stevens is scary. We might be seeing the beginnings of the next GOAT here. I admire the Celtic players, but I don't take any of them seriously as Top 5 level.

- How about Toronto?! This team is legit now. I'd still be on LeBron to win the East but in the past few seasons it's been Cleveland and the E-league. You knew that if LeBron got hurt, there wasn't a serious contender in the entire conference to even put up a fight agains the West champ. I still expect Golden State to take all comers, but the East has 3 teams worthy of being called contenders now.

- Washington really should be the 4th contender in the East. It's strange to me how they seem stuck in limbo.

- Milwaukee on the other hand doesn't seem like a mystery. It's been fascinating to see the way Buck fans have turned on Jason Kidd. Can't say I blame them.

- I'm happy for Indiana and Oladipo. Oladipo probably won't be a serious POY contender, but it's a feel good thing, and it's cool he succeeded by coming back to where he played college ball. But the Pacer organization specifically to me seems like they were did wrong by George. I'm not saying George didn't have a right to play where he wanted to play, but it really felt like he resented the organization for the way the team fell off in the last few years...but that George's attitude was a major part of that fall off. When things started going not-as-good as they'd be before, he reacted less than ideally and it then led to a spiral reminiscent of truly incompetent franchises. And I don't think the Pacers have ever been poorly run by any fair standard.

- Embiid's amazing. The game just seems so easy for him. I'm just hoping we get to see what he's truly capable of.

I feel like both davis and cousins have been better in previous years part of the issue Imo falls on gentry's schemes and support personnel

Regarding the pelicans, how much credit for their offense do you ascribe to Cousin's versatility amongst the Pelican's Bizarre Frankenstein-like lineups. I feel like while Davis has the better scoring by far if similarly talented centers on offense ( in a vacuum ) would have a harder time playing with Davis and getting the top 5 offense the pelicans have.

Like take a guy like amare stoudemire, his shorter range and more tunnel like vision would cause him more problem amongst new orleans already kind of cramped spacing. In fact that was the person I'm most interested in seeing how they compare as players to you.

Current Cousins vs Peak Amare (while I dont think you have amare as ever being top 5 I'm curious as to who you have higher and by how much.)

[Jurassic_Park]

At this rate, lebron will not finish top 5 in poy... just absurd. No one could have predicted that before the season.

still half the season to go though..

[ardee]

At this rate, lebron will not finish top 5 in poy... just absurd. No one could have predicted that before the season.

still half the season to go though..

Sig bet with you or anyone that he finishes top 5.

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[E-Balla]

Somebody tell me I am being crazy but I am not impressed by Harden at all. Even now I'd take Curry, Bron, KD, Russ over him. Plus the high variance game he plays has always flamed out in the playoffs. Even in 2015 he pretty much flamed out before getting his ass saved by a typical Clippers collapse in the playoffs.

I just think Harden gets over-rated by his pretty offensive numbers and "impact stats" which haven't been enough to sway me of his "goodness" as a player.

Wouldn't take Bron (his defense has been horrific) or KD (I just don't see what you all see in him at all... This reminds me of when this board felt Wade wasn't washed up in 2013 and I was constantly arguing he was) over Harden but yeah he hasn't been that impressive. I've always said this though.

Still I would put Harden top 5 on the season even with the injuries. I think outside of Russ, Jimmy, AD, Giannis, and possibly Kemba everyone you could put over Harden has way too many injuries and missed games (mainly Curry and Embiid).

[Dr Spaceman]

I’ll just come out and say it, and it’s not a take I’ve heard anywhere else, but Harden’s defense is good this year. Not just by his standards, I mean that every Rockets game I’ve watched I’ve come away with the impression that he improves his team’s defense when he’s out there.

Narratives will continue to narrative, and it will take until May for people to stop being skeptical of his offense, but right now he’s meaningfully improved on that end and I’d have him in the +0.5 range so far.

[Outside]

I don't see how Harden can't be at the top of the list at this point based on stats, team performance, and ability to mesh with Chris Paul, which I thought would be a problem. Based on the eye test, he is just a spectacularly skilled offensive player who can shoot from deep, drive, finish, and dish. Penetrating and kicking to a perimeter shooter at a predetermined spot doesn't take special skill, but where I see him as a gifted passer is on his interior passes, because some of those are spectacular. And from what I've seen (not just based on a couple of plays), he's far better on defense this year than at any time in Houston.

Since this is a RS plus PS award, it will come down to the PS. Harden is in the lead now, but other guys are close enough that they can overtake him in the playoffs.

[Doctor MJ]

I don't see how Harden can't be at the top of the list at this point based on stats, team performance, and ability to mesh with Chris Paul, which I thought would be a problem. Based on the eye test, he is just a spectacularly skilled offensive player who can shoot from deep, drive, finish, and dish. Penetrating and kicking to a perimeter shooter at a predetermined spot doesn't take special skill, but where I see him as a gifted passer is on his interior passes, because some of those are spectacular. And from what I've seen (not just based on a couple of plays), he's far better on defense this year than at any time in Houston.

Since this is a RS plus PS award, it will come down to the PS. Harden is in the lead now, but other guys are close enough that they can overtake him in the playoffs.

Y'know I'm a Harden fan, but actually the two guys I have atop my list are Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler.

I'll start of by noting that I have a kind of "but did it really hurt?" approach to considering injuries in POY discussions. So, Bill Walton, for example, I quite agree with him winning the MVP in '77-78 but he had no prayer when we did the Retro POY for that year. He missed a ton of time in the regular season but the team was so good when he was on the floor that it basically clinched the 1st seed in the West, so all's well that end's well. He was the most valuable player in the league when he played, and he was valuable enough to get his team to the #1 seed. Good enough for me. But of course come playoff time Walton's inability to play like he'd been doing meant that his team went nowhere during the most important season.

So right now, Curry leads the league in raw +/- despite his missed time. When a player is so clearly the most impactful player in the league, and missed time isn't keeping his team from being the toast of the league, and he still has experienced more raw "winning" than everyone else...why overthink it? MVP in a nutshell.

Jimmy Butler is the other guy who comes to mind. Butler's team has actually done about as well when he's on the floor as Harden, so that's no small thing. But really the thing that gives Butler a serious argument in my mind is the possibly culture-changing influence he's had on the Wolves this year.

[ardee]

I don't see how Harden can't be at the top of the list at this point based on stats, team performance, and ability to mesh with Chris Paul, which I thought would be a problem. Based on the eye test, he is just a spectacularly skilled offensive player who can shoot from deep, drive, finish, and dish. Penetrating and kicking to a perimeter shooter at a predetermined spot doesn't take special skill, but where I see him as a gifted passer is on his interior passes, because some of those are spectacular. And from what I've seen (not just based on a couple of plays), he's far better on defense this year than at any time in Houston.

Since this is a RS plus PS award, it will come down to the PS. Harden is in the lead now, but other guys are close enough that they can overtake him in the playoffs.

Y'know I'm a Harden fan, but actually the two guys I have atop my list are Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler.

I'll start of by noting that I have a kind of "but did it really hurt?" approach to considering injuries in POY discussions. So, Bill Walton, for example, I quite agree with him winning the MVP in '77-78 but he had no prayer when we did the Retro POY for that year. He missed a ton of time in the regular season but the team was so good when he was on the floor that it basically clinched the 1st seed in the West, so all's well that end's well. He was the most valuable player in the league when he played, and he was valuable enough to get his team to the #1 seed. Good enough for me. But of course come playoff time Walton's inability to play like he'd been doing meant that his team went nowhere during the most important season.

So right now, Curry leads the league in raw +/- despite his missed time. When a player is so clearly the most impactful player in the league, and missed time isn't keeping his team from being the toast of the league, and he still has experienced more raw "winning" than everyone else...why overthink it? MVP in a nutshell.

Jimmy Butler is the other guy who comes to mind. Butler's team has actually done about as well when he's on the floor as Harden, so that's no small thing. But really the thing that gives Butler a serious argument in my mind is the possibly culture-changing influence he's had on the Wolves this year.

On Curry I sort of agree, he's been clearly the bes player so far when healthy. Why do you think the media refuses to see him as such? Everyone seems to still think Durant is the no. 1 guy on the Warriors.

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[clyde21]

I’ll just come out and say it, and it’s not a take I’ve heard anywhere else, but Harden’s defense is good this year. Not just by his standards, I mean that every Rockets game I’ve watched I’ve come away with the impression that he improves his team’s defense when he’s out there.

Narratives will continue to narrative, and it will take until May for people to stop being skeptical of his offense, but right now he’s meaningfully improved on that end and I’d have him in the +0.5 range so far.

I agree. He's doing a good job putting in more effort on that end and is using his strength and body to his advantage. Having Paul there probably helps him in that department as well. He's a great defensive influence.

[therealbig3]

I'd say Harden, Curry, Butler, Westbrook, and Giannis are my top 5 at this point. Really not all that impressed by LeBron so far with how bad he's been over the last month, and Paul just missed too much time, although, I'll have him in the top 5 for sure if he stays healthy and doesn't have an issue in the playoffs (not sure who he'd knock out though). Davis and Durant are serious contenders too.

Assuming Paul and Curry stay healthy and LeBron returns to form in the playoffs, I'm guessing LeBron, Curry, Paul, and Harden are top 4, with Butler/Westbrook/Giannis/Davis/Durant battling it out for 5th. Harden might drop-off if he struggles again in the playoffs.

If I'm forced to rank them right now:

1. Butler
2. Westbrook
3. Giannis
4. Curry
5. Harden

HM: Davis, Durant, LeBron, Paul

Curry will be moving up the more and more he plays, because I feel like he's just been clearly better than anyone else when he has actually been on the court. Harden missing time hurts him relative to the others, because I don't think there's much separating those 4 at all tbh.

The way I see it, I'd take 35 games of Curry over 40 games of Harden, but once you start getting to Giannis (43 games), Westbrook (49 games), and Butler (46 games), it's enough to take them over Curry at this point.

[E-Balla]

I don't see how Harden can't be at the top of the list at this point based on stats, team performance, and ability to mesh with Chris Paul, which I thought would be a problem. Based on the eye test, he is just a spectacularly skilled offensive player who can shoot from deep, drive, finish, and dish. Penetrating and kicking to a perimeter shooter at a predetermined spot doesn't take special skill, but where I see him as a gifted passer is on his interior passes, because some of those are spectacular. And from what I've seen (not just based on a couple of plays), he's far better on defense this year than at any time in Houston.

Since this is a RS plus PS award, it will come down to the PS. Harden is in the lead now, but other guys are close enough that they can overtake him in the playoffs.

Y'know I'm a Harden fan, but actually the two guys I have atop my list are Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler.

I'll start of by noting that I have a kind of "but did it really hurt?" approach to considering injuries in POY discussions. So, Bill Walton, for example, I quite agree with him winning the MVP in '77-78 but he had no prayer when we did the Retro POY for that year. He missed a ton of time in the regular season but the team was so good when he was on the floor that it basically clinched the 1st seed in the West, so all's well that end's well. He was the most valuable player in the league when he played, and he was valuable enough to get his team to the #1 seed. Good enough for me. But of course come playoff time Walton's inability to play like he'd been doing meant that his team went nowhere during the most important season.

So right now, Curry leads the league in raw +/- despite his missed time. When a player is so clearly the most impactful player in the league, and missed time isn't keeping his team from being the toast of the league, and he still has experienced more raw "winning" than everyone else...why overthink it? MVP in a nutshell.

Jimmy Butler is the other guy who comes to mind. Butler's team has actually done about as well when he's on the floor as Harden, so that's no small thing. But really the thing that gives Butler a serious argument in my mind is the possibly culture-changing influence he's had on the Wolves this year.

I think injuries matter. Who cares if they've won without him Curry has won 29 games. There's been tons of people that have won more games and contributed more to wins in total. In 78 Bill Walton won 48 games. The runner up in MVP, George Gervin, won 52. Even in 58 games there's a legit argument Walton lead his team to more wins than anyone else in the league over the whole 82 games. That argument isn't there for Curry.