PhilBlackson wrote:Roy The Natural wrote:PhilBlackson wrote:
Lillard was a year older as well and we're only around the halfway mark of the season with Mitchell's usage increasing more and more as it progresses. But the answer is he's not as explosive of an athlete or as quick imo and Mitchell has a MUCH better wingspan which are the things that I think are going to separate him from Dame. That added length helps A LOT, he's basically the length of most SGs but the skill level and speed of most score first PGs. Not to mention a much better defender.
The whole age thing is a non-factor, when it is so small. Player make jumps or they don't. Lillard and Brandon Roy, along with pretty much everyone drafted before the late 90's proved that progression is not linear, nor is it dependent on age. The only reality is that being a bit younger will give Mitchell possibly one extra year of prime play (barring injury). Mitchell still has quite a few leaps to make to match Lillard, let alone Harden. He's got to draw fouls better, shoot the ball better, and pass better, if he wants to offensively be what Lillard is right now.
I'm not going to say that Mitchell can't be better than Lillard, or won't be.... but for players that are pretty identical impact-wise at this point, it seems a bit of a reach to project one of them to be an MVP caliber player. I'd say that Mitchell is a slight bit better athlete than young Lillard, but he's also not really proven to be the same level of shooter yet.
I think Mitchell could very well be better than Lillard... but there's nothing to really suggest that there career arcs are significantly different at this point, and I'm really not seeing James Harden MVP levels of good yet.
But their impact ISN'T pretty identical, you're just saying that.
Again Mitchell is putting up these stats in SEVEN less minutes per game, that's a BIG difference. There isn't a star in this league that if you added another 7mpg to that wouldn't see a substantial increase in their numbers. Funny enough there's usually probably about that amount of time difference on the court between many bench players and starters. Heck even if you went with Per 36 numbers he'd average 21.5ppg and he'd STILL have another 2.6mpg LESS than what Lillard played.
Also nothing of what you said addressed DM having better length which certainly makes a difference (ie/ Draymond had 2-3 inch shorter wingspan he's not anywhere near as effective and would be considered the size of most average SGs nevermind handling PFs)
Being a better, more explosive athlete with better length and the size of a SG vs PG is a significant difference which is why he doesn't have to be as reliant on his shooting as Lillard is. Plus you also skipped over
DM being a much better defender, that's another MAJOR advantage. Really you didn't seem to address any of that and I don't mean that to be rude but you're not acknowledging ANY of the advantages he has tbh, if you did you would see what separates them.
Didn't really skip Mitchell's strengths as much as point to his weaknesses. You compared him to Harden. The guy is going to need to increase his assists and FT drawing by nearly 300% to approach Harden's level. Mitchell has a SKY HIGH usage percentage, leading a fairly mediocre offense. He's a beast no doubt, but a 28% usg rate, with a pretty terrible asst% of 19%. I'm not even sure at this point that Mitchell is actually a PG, or capable of being the primary ball-handler in a top notch offense, as much as he's more a scoring 2 guard, with good length, albeit a smidge undersized.
I'd have no qualms with someone predicting him eclipsing Lillard in overall impact. It's the gaudy expectations of MVP level play I have reservations about, with someone who's at this point shown to be more of a scorer than a well rounded primary ball-handler. I'm not saying Mitchell can't do these things, but he's got some major leaps to make before predicting he's an MVP level player. I can't think of many primary ball-handlers, even at a young age who were rocking a near 30% usage% and an under 20% ast rate.....
I mean, I guess you've got young Monta Ellis, but that's not really a wonderful shining beacon. Mitchell is going to need to pass the ball better to lead a team on the offensive end.
You can't have a guy suffocating the rest of the team offensively like he is currently as a winning formula. Maybe it's just a product of the roster, but that remains to be seen. Right now, Mitchell looks like a dynamite scorer who needs a lot of work in running an offense (something that was definitely on the college scouting report). He needs to (and probably will) get better at drawing fouls for those nights when his solid, but so far streaky shooting isn't hitting. He's finishing tremendously well right now, but it's hard to imagine him being a career 67% finisher. I'd imagine 58-63% is more reasonable once he's been scouted a bit. That's just a tremendously rare finishing rate for a guard, and maybe he's an all-time great finisher when it's all said and done, but I'd wager that finishing % regresses to a mean of around 60% sooner or later, before I make that leap.
*INGRAM*ALLSTARSEASON* Wemby is HIM
